In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD

In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.

No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.

No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.

England with its brexit and its inept reactions have fucked the life of 11,000 hauliers MOST of which whom will never take a job delivering to england for at least a year. I have listened to 20 I know

"we were pushed to places, we had no choice, argument was met by threat of arrest. We had no food, no dignity, we were forced back into cabins if we tried to leave. They had dogs and tasers. "

Not one driver blames anyone but the british. many have been talking to their national governments and most have been told they will receive compensation.

They are saying "we are told to be in a driver zoo, no facilities, afraid, no lights, who is around my truck ? this country is like Russia.

THURSDAY 24th

Merry Brexmas
-Johnson is expected to make the Brexit deal announcement today at around 08:00GMT
-Johnson will first talk to EU Chief at 07:00GMT to sign and seal after "late night wrangles over individual fish species" (not a joke)

-There were four secret calls between PM and EU chief VDL yesterday to get the deal over the line, VDL asked Johnson: “Do we have a deal?” to which the PM replied, “Yes.” 🍾
-Johnson is said to have made "huge concessions", likely to anger Brexiteers in Britain

-Senior European source says Johnson is willing to accept that the EU hands back just 25 percent of the value of fish it catches in British waters, over a 5.5-year transition period. The UK was previously insisting on 35 percent, over three years

-Sources say Boris showered Michael Gove with praise last night on the Cabinet call, Said his former rival and been "indispensable" in getting a deal, with planning and No Deal readiness🤗

South Africa travel ban
-Passengers travelling from South Africa to England today will be denied entry, after government scientists and ministers became increasingly alarmed about a new strain of the coronavirus that has emerged in the country.

I’m so angry about this ‘haute Remain is responsible for hard Brexit’ bullshit. When I stood for Parliament in 2017, I stood in hustings and said ‘Brexit is happening. We demand the Government deliver on the promise of no down-side, and the Opposition hold them accountable’.

Neither of those things happened. For four years, the Governments of May and Johnson have at best negotiated in bad faith and at worst actively pursued no deal. They gaslight us constantly that this is ‘the will of the people’, when anyone not insane or punch drunk can see that

... for what it is, the ERG’s Reichstag Fire. As for the Opposition, the decision of Jeremy Corbyn not to hold the government accountable for five years was catastrophically damaging. It handed the role of opposition to hard nationalists within and without the Tory Party.

That is why the ERG set the agenda during the May premiership, and why, despite an 80 seat majority for the Tories, they still seem to hold sway. It is why the Nationalists in Scotland will succeed in Secession (or Scexit - let’s call it what it is, not ‘Independence’).

Now, at the 11th hour, we endure accusations from such diverse luminaries as Peter Mandelson and Owen Jones that this was, somehow, our fault? We, who did nothing but demand that politicians live up to their promises. Well fuck absolutely every single one of them.

When Jacob Rees Mogg threw dead fish into the Thames at WETminster, I thought, like most of you, he was making a point on behalf of the Fishing INDUSTRY.

It was only yesterday that we all learned he was acting on behalf of the FISH.

Fish happiness, not Brexit, was the goal!

In the year before #Brexit started -
(note: Brexit was not done, it's just begun)
- I worried about those most impacted.

My logic was while those wishing to remain would be most disappointed, they would also be most prepared.

#BrexitDeal would hurt its supporters.
Starting ☝️

Two reasons were anticipated.

1. Famously the economic consequences would hurt Leave voters the most (albeit no one expected the madness of combining #Brexit with #Covid19)

2. Sovereignty and independence would be reversed; we'd end up with less of both (as we have).

Number 3?

We didn't spend enough time on No.3. Few anticipated only 15 days of #Brexit would be needed.

Also a dilemma. It would have needed remainers to be listened to. Or leavers to question #Brexit.

3. What happens: A small leave group realise the con; disagree with Leave Mainstream?

No 3: And now
Mogg boasts of having fish back while:

* The fishing industry is in arms; screaming betrayal
* Some fisheries are already bankrupting
* Because fish we can't sell is rotting

Yet Jake's happy the fish are happy.
Almost as if ☝️ he had nothing to do with this

1. We are currently staring over the precipice of no deal. Everyone, including many of those who argued for Brexit, understand the damage it would do, especially at the same time as the Covid economic crisis and the end of the transition period. We are facing a perfect storm.

2. It’s pretty clear now that the level playing field is the cause of the deadlock. It seems that the UK and the EU have already agreed a non-regression clause – ie that both sides won’t reduce existing standards on things like environmental protection and workers rights.

3. But the issue is what happens if EU standards diverge from ours in the years ahead and vice versa. In other words, how do you make sure that the playing field that both sides run out onto on 1 Jan remains level in the years ahead?

4. In the Political Declaration both sides signed up to robust level playing field commitments to “prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages.” That’s why both the UK and the EU should want a mechanism for ensuring that the terms of trade remain fair.

5. The other consideration is that trust was undermined by the row over the Internal Market Bill. Seeking to renege on part of a Treaty you negotiated a year ago is not a very good idea, especially when you’re trying to negotiate a new Treaty with the same partners now.

These are the questions, big and small, that I will be asking about the shape and quality of a Brexit deal when the text is out:

(A long thread)

On manufactured goods:

1. Does the agreement provide zero-tariff and zero-quota access on all goods?

Where to find the answer: Chapter on Tariffs

2. Under what circumstances might tariffs be imposed in the future?

Where to find the answer: Chapters on Trade Remedies, on Subsidies, and Trade and Labour, and Trade and Environment

3. Is there “mutual recognition of conformity assessment”? If so, what products does it cover?

Chapter on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and relevant annexes

4. What are the agreed “rules of origin” requirements?

Chapter on Rules of Origin

Brexit- Moving On:
Those who saw membership of the EU as being in UK’s best interests are told that they are going through the stages of grief. Eventually Brexit acceptance will come and we are told to hurry up about it (by "Spartans" who trumpet never surrendering) /1

But there is no need for grief. Brexit is not a permanent condition. States can apply for membership. Brexiters have a task: either delivering on their promises or persuading people to forget them. We have a task: creating the conditions for a successful application to join. /2

I want to be practical about this. What needs to be done?

1. We must advocate for membership within the UK.
2. We must help ensure that the UK meets the conditions for membership.
3. We must maintain good relations with the EU. /3

Advocacy: Good advocacy is founded on careful preparation and good information. We will need to be clear about the adverse impacts of Brexit as they occur. We will need to be clear about the developing benefits of membership (and honest about the EU’s difficulties) /4

We need to be where people will hear us: on social media, by providing expertise available for the traditional media and by lobbying politicians. We need to help amplify those speaking for us. Which bring us to a question; do we have the advocates we need? /5

I'd just like to place on record that #NoDealBrexit is just about the worst *political* idea I've ever heard. In the 1000% unlikely event I was advising the PM, I would be extremely strongly against.

It's the classic Weak Man's Strong Man decision, like Steve McClaren dropping David Beckham. Sugar rush of the call, then all your problems get much worse.

It supercharges your opponents, allows Labour all the political landscape, is a *vast* gift to the SNP, revives the Lib Dems - all at a stroke.

The public don't want No Deal. You just won an election promising to make it all go away. You're under attack for your competence on Covid. The last thing you need is loads more blame.

You need to move on, convince middle of the road voters who have peeled away. You need to talk infrastructure, jobs, Covid recovery, climate change, hospitals.

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security

In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.

What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do

GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations

Lots more to say on #Erasmus and 'replacement' #turingscheme. Students in Northern Ireland may still have access thanks to the Irish government. What about Scotland or Wales? Some considerable barriers here to think about. /1

Erasmus is an EU programme. It is established by a Regulation: a law covering the scope, how the programme works, funding etc over a 7 year period (2014-20). Higher Ed exchanges and Jean Monnet are the best known but also vocational training etc. /2

Participation from non-EU states is possible (Art 24). Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein are in the European Economic Area; Switzerland needs a bilateral agreement. I assume UK would need to be listed similarly to Switzerland in the new Regulation if it wanted to be in. /3

The 'acceding countries, candidate countries and potential candidates' has a specific scope, and does include Kosovo (not yet recognised by all Member States). Turkey in particular has been very active in Erasmus. /4

The European Neighbourhood Policy covers 16 neighbouring states in North Africa, Middle East (including Palestine) and Eastern Europe (except Russia) if a bilateral agreement concluded (yes for some, but not all at the moment). /5

Thanks @Charlesknight for finding this gem.

First one is buy cars made in the UK. How many cars are they expecting me to buy?

How will the cars be made without the parts?

Go on holiday in the UK because going to the EU will be more expensive. This is great advice. Wouldn't have known what to do without it.

Buy more bluefin tuna from Japan. No sure that's strictly environmentally ideal.

Our experts have read through the 1,246 pages of the Brexit deal so you don't have to. Here are 13 things consumers need to know about the UK-EU deal ⬇️

1. You won't need a visa.

If you're travelling for up to 90 days in any 180 day period, you don't need to worry about getting a visa. This applies to any country in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland

2. To travel to the EU you will need at least six months of validity left on your passport.

And as far as your furry friends are concerned, the UK will no longer be part of the Pet Passport scheme. You'll need an Animal Health Certificate instead.

3. You should get yourself a Ghic (as well as travel insurance).

Similar to the Ehic, the Ghic is a UK government scheme. It will be available from 2021, but details are still being finalised. You can still use your Ehic card until it expires.

4. You'll still be entitled to compensation for flight delays. This rule only applies to flights on EU airlines or flights to or from EU airports. It’s possible that only passengers flying from the UK on EU airlines or from the EU to the UK will be covered.

Here’s a fundamental Brexit truth I don’t think we’ve discussed enough: the reason why Brexit has been on the front pages for so much of the past few years doesn’t actually have that much to do with Brexit. Let me explain:

Of course the UK’s relationship with the EU is of enormous economic, social & legal importance, past, present and future. Of course the trade deal matters, as will immigration rules and all the rest. But the real, real reason Brexit has been such a big deal is something else:

Brexit is first and foremost a story about the Tory party, which happens to be the party of government. Brexit mattered these past four and a half years because it deposed two prime ministers. It decided elections. It was an issue of immense political significance.

Yes, clearly underlying this there was economics and chewy discussion about N Ireland and the UK’s place in the world. But much as I’d like (as an economics/policy geek) to pretend THAT was why it dominated the news agenda, in reality it was big news because it could fell PMs

That political soap opera has so dominated the front pages that the (to me at least) much more interesting story about Brexit itself has been rather drowned out. What is that story? That the UK is heading towards what, a few years ago, everyone would have called a “hard Brexit”

I see alot of friends here are getting angry at various Starmer comments on Brexit.
I get its an emotional time, but with respect, alot of people arent thinking rationally right now.

No Starmer hasn't gone full Brexit - we need to look a bit more soberly at things.

A thread.

2/

The anger at whether Labour votes for the deal is one of the biggest, dullest non-issues of the day.

Its Johnson's deal - as he insists on telling us at every moment.
The ERG back it.
Labour's vote makes no difference either way.
I'd prefer Abstain - but I dont really care.

3/

Agonising over this is pointless.
A case can be made for all 3 options.

But ultimately its Johnson deal, the Conservatives deal and Labour MPs voting for it won't change that.
Nobody is going to come back & say it was Labour that brought this deal in 2 years time.
Let it go.

4/

A few people have been upset by comments Starmer wont seek to radically change UKs relationship with EU.

2 days before a deal comes in is not the day to say you will radically change it.

So what is Starmer thinking?

Consider...not 2024 - but

5/

Its very easy for English people to forget that 2 crucial things coming in 2021 will combine to constrain any UK govt policy on EU - regardless of what Westminister thinks:

1. Scottish elections
2. Northern Irish Census

A year ago we left the EU, but the real impact of leaving will only be felt from tomorrow.

1/13

Although the ‘deal’ includes tariff free access to the single market and customs union – it still destroys friction free access to the EU markets, which will destroy many UK businesses and cost many UK jobs.

2/13

It of course fails to address the UK’s services industry – which represents 80% of trade with the EU.

3/13

But there are also other factors – lorry drivers will need to be paid more to wait in queues. Or they won’t come.

4/13

So there will be supply failures for product from the EU – impacting everything from supermarket shelves to car and aerospace manufacturing industries.

5/13