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With 10 days to go, there are three main outcomes of the #Brexit talks:
1) no deal
2) the two sides are still talking but run out of time - qu if can find other ways to buy more time
3) a deal is reached which the UK ratifies & EU provisionally applies

In some ways, option one is the most simple

If the two sides walk away then we dont need to see the govt recalling UK parliament & the european parliament also doesn't need to vote

But no deal isnt a sustainable endstate - lots of reasons the UK will need to work with EU in the future

While I dont think UK will be straight back to the negotiating table - esp if PM unwilling to compromise in current circumstances - there will still be unresolved issues

Option two is probably the most challenging - where both sides think there is a deal to be done but the clock just runs out...

They may want to buy more time for talks but as @GeorginaEWright has pointed out, it is really much more complicated than that:


Which means that for many, option 3 (a deal) is really the best outcome

Although @aliceolilly has pointed out recall has been complicated by covid rules: https://t.co/kPaA7vXT32

There is still - just about - enough time for the UK parliament to pass implementing legislation
1. Something that's really struck me in the Brexit negotiations this year is the surprisingly fragile confidence the EU seem to have in the competitive advantage conferred by the single market. Sounds strange, but bear with me.

(Thread)

2. The single market is the most comprehensive trade area in the world. It includes considerable regulatory alignment on products and services, free movement of people etc.

Yet the EU seems to think that a mere FTA would allow post-Brexit UK to outcompete that single market. 🤔

3. Their current position seems to be that unless an FTA is accompanied by extremely onerous level-playing field provisions (explained by @RaoulRuparel here), then an FTA with the UK isn't worth doing because it would be a threat to the single


4. But if you voted Remain (as I did), the idea that a mere FTA with, say, enforceable non-regression clauses rather than "dynamic alignment by the back door" is going to give post-Brexit Britain a competitive trading advantage over the single market is quite a strange one...

5. I mean, whatever happened to "non-tariff barriers are more important than tariffs"? Even with an FTA, the UK will face:
- Customs and regulatory barriers
- No free movement
- Rules of origin

Hardly a menu for out-competing the SM, you'd think, even with more freedom on LPF.
#BORISJohnson is set to deliver a press conference to the nation this morning as the Prime Minister nears on securing a trade deal with the European Union.

PUBLISHED: 07:05 Dec 24 2020 | UPDATED: 09:33, Thu, Dec 24, 2020

Update was 9:11!

"And now the Prime Minister is set to deliver a statement to the nation around 8am to announce the deal."

But the update was later than 8am! Still no statement from #BorisJohnson

#8 = H #HillaryClinton

BORIS JOHNSON and Ursula Von Der Leyen have allegedly arrived at a Brexit deal, and an announcement on the details will come today. What time is Boris Johnson's Brexit deal announcement?

07:47 Dec 24, 2020 | UPDATED: 09:04, Thu Dec 24, 2020

#47

European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer confirmed talks had also continued overnight via Twitter. #Brexit

Writing at midnight GMT, he said they would start again in the morning. #MidnightRiders #Comms #GMT Ground moving target #Military


"MPs and lords are currently on recess, but can be recalled at 48 hours notice, by December 29 at the earliest."

Why 48 hours notice? They can do it in less time if needed!

#48 #Cue #Gematria #Comms

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