BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

As we twiddle our thumbs waiting for white smoke from Brussels, this prompted me to reflect on how badly business lost this game. Deal or not, whatever emerges, whenever it emerges, will be a million miles from what business hoped for. How did it go so badly wrong? 🧵(1/)

 I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve been told over the last 5yrs that it’s because business wasn’t loud enough. 1st during the referendum (though post-🗳️ analysis tends to agree the economic argument was won, it just wasn’t important enough). 2nd during the negotiations (2/)
I’ve said a lot about this in the past, ultimately - yes biz could have been louder. But there are many reasons why they weren’t.
And volume really isn't everything. Any lobbyist knows that you’re only loud when you’re already losing. It’s a symptom, not a cause, of loss (3/)
So how did business start losing on Brexit? This story has 3 beginnings:
1. The decline in trust through the 00s, when respect diminished
2. #indyref where biz learned the hard way what being dragged into a polarising political furore felt like. That backlash scarred.
(4/)
3. The birth of Business for Britain

Honestly, Business for Britain were brilliant at what they did. I think they genuinely did try to woo business on side initially. But when that didn’t work, they switched strategy very rapidly and pulled every lever available to them (5/)
They (and then Vote Leave) were fantastic at making biz opinion seem divided. They leveraged the decline in institutional trust, both by attacking the institutions themselves and offering small but non-representative businesses in their place (sound famliar?) (6/)
They leveraged the fear of the Scottish referendum, sending letters with Electoral Commission guidance on campaigning to FTSE firms to make it seem more difficult to speak up during the campaign.

They were very, very good at their job (7/)
And, of course, the Remain campaign shot itself in the foot during the process. Sajid Javid telling biz to pipe down on their pro-EU sentiments through 2015’s re-negotiation confused the message. People like Stuart Rose played into Vote Leave’s hands (8/13)
Should business have adapted more quickly? Yes. Should it have foreseen and played out these tactics in advance and worked out how to respond? Yes. But... spoiler alert... being good at business doesn't make you good at politics.

And those weren't its biggest errors. (9/13)
In my view, business’ biggest mistake was in the 6months following June 2016. Everyone retreated to their bunkers to figure out WTF had just happened. By the time biz had figured out what it wanted, May had her red lines, Eurosceptics had their wins, and the field was set (10/15)
This was -of course- compounded by the fact business was operating in isolation. May didn't understand and wasn't interested in business (at that point). Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy closed the doors. Everyone was guessing at language that would work, what she was thinking (11/15)
I find it really hard to imagine how things might have gone differently from then – or certainly how business might have changed things. Couldn’t have the single market with control of immigration or 'of our laws'. Couldn’t have a CU with the new FTAs the UK was seeking (12/15)
Every FTSE350 CEO could have lined up outside Downing Street playing Ode to Joy on handmade instruments while tattooing rings of yellow stars on their foreheads, and it wouldn’t have made a difference to that reality. Gravity (as @pmdfoster often says) was in charge (13/15)
We tried anyway. Every contortion of language and best of both worlds that could, even infeasibly, exist. All while seeing off no deal. Got pretty damn far with Chequers. But we all know how that went. And there have been very few substantive wins for biz since that point (14/15)
So now we twiddle our thumbs. Let politics and gravity do their thing. And business will welcome what it can if a deal is done.

Because what's the alternative? What would be acheived by doing anything else? It lost this one a long time ago (15/15)

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@BBCkatyaadler
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has briefed Europe Ministers from EU member states that progress continues to be made in negotiations with the UK but not significantly when it comes to key sticking points: level playing field, fish, governance of deal /1

This briefing comes ahead of the EU leaders summit in Brussels end of this week, where Brexit will be discussed most likely I’m told on Friday morning. Both Michel Barnier and the PM once described this summit mid October as cut off point by which time a deal had to be agreed /2

This clearly will not be the case and each side predictably blames the other for that. Today a UK government source said: „The EU have been using the old playbook in which they thought running down the clock would work against the UK“ /3

„They have assumed that the UK would be more willing to compromise the longer the process ran, but in fact all these tactics have achieved is to get us to the middle of October with lots of work that could have been done left undone.“ /4

Both sides say they still want a deal and think it entirely possible to reach a deal this year, infact v soon, if only the OTHER side would just be „more realistic“ (ie make the big compromises) /5
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David Henig
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@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
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katya adler
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1

EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2

Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3

EU leaders - who surprise, surprise already have a thing or two planned in their diaries over next couple of weeks - have zero appetite to return to Brussels again especially for #Brexit They have no desire to be involved in the drama playing out right now in the UK BUT /4

If MPs reject the deal, if there are plans for a general election or a referendum on the deal then a longer extension will be necessary. Here it is harder for EU leaders to come to immediate consensus so an emergency summit becomes likely /5
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Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
FELIXSTOWE, England (Reuters) -

In just one month of post-Brexit trading, British logistics expert Jon Swallow has seen exports dive, prices rise and customers so desperate that he is practically offering a counselling service.

Swallow is one of thousands of freight forwarders and customs brokers based around Britain’s biggest ports who have described the overnight introduction of a full customs border as akin to the country placing economic sanctions on itself.

Britain’s New Year’s Eve departure from the European Union’s orbit after 47 years of membership means exporters must now provide customs and safety declarations, health checks and rules of origin details to trade with its biggest partner.

We are now at a disadvantage to people trading within the EU,” Swallow, a co-director of Jordon Freight, told Reuters in his office next to the vast cranes that tower over Felixstowe docks, Britain’s biggest container port, on the south east coast of England.

“We’re a very fast-paced business, but now we’re just like walking through mud. There’s just paperwork everywhere.”
Those companies that trade goods between Britain and the bloc are paying a price, particularly small firms.
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@nickynoo007
1. It surprises me that on the whole pro Europeans on Twitter view themselves as pragmatists, who rely on evidence to form their opinion.
In fact a long running joke in our 'group' is that Brexit will be a roaring success, if we all just believe hard it will be a roaring success.

2. The last couple of weeks have made it clearer than ever that blind belief that is impervious to evidence and facts is not a leave/remain thing. It's a human thing

3. I was accused of lying and hounding a 'vulnerable' person off Twitter. When the victims of that 'vulnerable' got the same treatment, it became necessary to take action.

4. So I gathered evidence (not all, but enough) and wrote a blog with contributions from several others. Then the blog was checked by experts to ensure that it was neither libellous (to protect authors) or a risk to any possible legal action (to protect victims).

5. I naively thought that would put an end to the false accusations and trolling.
Since publishing I've been accused of having called the "vulnerable' person and threatened members of their family, forcing them to confess to the police
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He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...


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Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

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Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

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H was always unseen in S2NL :)

Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.

Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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