BC BREXIT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

End of week 2 thread on post Brexit food trade

There is continued growing unease. The main picture remains one of depressed/tentative trade (c50% down y-o-y) and some high profile logistics business have taken the rational step to stop and regroup.

 The big worry here is that ‘not-trading’becomes a habit. We can’t/won’t carry on at half the volumes of before, but as volumes claw back we may only reach something like 80% of previous volumes and that is a disaster for a food industry already battered by a recession.
Lots of focus has been on the idea of EU businesses stopping serving the UK. Worries about how we feed ourselves has trumped worry about our exporters at every stage. Even though it is the collapse of our export businesses that is (and has always been) the greater threat.
To reassure the mainland British shopper that feels like less of a risk. UK is a large market of wealthy consumers, and UK gov has shown it will do anything (however unfair) to ensure stuff gets in - even letting supermarkets have access to the fast track lane to Dover. https://t.co/KbqS799qwd
I am not as close to this but it feels like shortage on the shelves is more of a genuine immediate threat for the island of Ireland. The types of innovative solutions we have discussed this week can help but will they come in quick enough? https://t.co/eG251uHcTO
It’s been 17 days and we’re still in the middle of it, so not really the time for hot takes on how we got here and what happens now, but this is Twitter so I’ll give it a go.

A couple of thoughts on the immediate issues and a few more on the medium and long term.
Operationally, the first thing we have to do is stop seeing our new trading reality through the eyes of the Brexit row. Watching my twitter echo chamber since new year, it feels like we are working our way through the stages of grief. There is certainly a lot of DENIAL and ANGER
Also with all the urgent meetings talking about the need for easements (me included) and talk of things like cancelling the NI Protocol (not me on that one) - a fair bit of BARGAINING.

Unfortunately changes to the ‘deal’ are a pipe dream - UK won’t ask, EU won’t allow.
Those businesses that are doing best have skipped to ACCEPTANCE. The cost, stress and inefficiency is really bad for them too, but they are facing in to it and they have bought the best people, IT, and agents.

Of course that means it’s even harder for others to catch up
I am sure that Ministers have convinced themselves that these ‘teething issues’ are not their fault. That they said these new rules were coming and that anyone who didn’t listen it is on them.

I bet @michaelgove even genuinely believes the patronising ‘get matchfit’ thing.
What I don’t see any evidence of is THE PLAN. Statements like ‘happy British fish’ @Jacob_Rees_Mogg and ‘no border in NI’ @BrandonLewis might please one political base and troll another - but what they also do is undermine business confidence that Ministers have a grip.
I mean some of us have even read the trade deal 👀@VictoriaPrentis https://t.co/d0e3tEafoy
Those in power won the argument. They got their way 100%. Now its time to show us what they want to do with it. The thing that drives me nuts is not just how ‘thin’ the EU deal is, its how ‘thin’ the whole UK post-Brexit trade strategy seems to be.
@liztruss’ made a soundbite infused speech in the House this week. But it’s lacking substance. Managing our trade is now a core job of our government. How will UK Gov support UK food business to trade outside of the comfort zone of a massive trading block? https://t.co/7FulifOJtq
Being confident about ‘brand Britain’ is important - but having bulldog spirit won’t carry us that far. Re-signing existing deals we already had when in the EU and naming English speaking places in the world that we plan to get a new trade deal with is not a complete strategy.
We kind of get that we need massive increased investment in our trade outreach (it’s been pretty good up to now, but we now need to do it in EU too)and every department has to realise that helping Britain trade is a key part of their job. Especially departments like DEFRA.
For all the prep, we have all been rabbits in the headlights so far. Our regulatorory agencies in particular still seem to believe that they will get back to what they did before soon. That’s not how it is going to work, at least not if we are serious about global Britain.
We must also get out of the mindset that all that matters is what we buy - our meat industry is a great example - we consume a lot of what we produce, but for our producers to be profitable selling the cuts we don’t eat to other markets is a key to being sustainable
As a representative of #coldchain businesses - the part of the chain that do the storing and the moving of goods - we can do whatever. You want to bring more food in from the US, China or Brazil great, it can go into the same sort of warehouses as stuff that comes from Belgium.
If anything the more it goes that way the more lucrative (for us). If more of our food comes from further away, we will need more warehouses. It’s also a lot simpler to fill and run the admin for shipping containers, than manage the fast integrated trade we do with our neighbours
I’m not sure how good that will be for the planet, or what that will mean for the quality and variety of goods we have on our shelves. But it is a clear choice we can now make - and one that is signalled by us extracting ourselves from the EU’s regulatory sphere for food.
Yet, anytime a minister is near a microphone, they are at pains to reassure that they intend to lead the world in higher/tougher standards. They have touted that things like pulse fishing can now be banned because we are outside the EU (France did in 2019) https://t.co/lMtNGN367s
For every market that gets added to the FTA target list we hit a new set of contradictions and tensions. We have to assume that a key reason we did not include a pretty obvious reciprocal deal on equivalence of food standards with the EU was linked to hopes of US deal.
But Ministers are also categoric we will not accept chlorinated chicken..etc. Feels optimistic to me, but do you know what would have helped in convincing US we couldn’t move on food standards in a tough negotiation? - if we were bound by a set of standards we shared with the EU.
That to me would have been evidence of a trade game plan - that married the rhetoric of higher standards with a plan for entering the next set of tough trade negotiations. Instead we are in the dark as to what the hope is, let alone what is achievable
I hope that soon in 2021 we will be into a ‘building back better’ phase. Having survived the worst, riding the confidence of a bounce back economic recovery. If Ministers want food industry investment to follow, then they need to both have a robust plan and tell us what it is.

More from Brexit

Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
Advertisement
Dr Matt Prescott
Dr Matt Prescott
@mattprescott
WHAT'S MOST SUSPICIOUS ABOUT BREXIT? A tough competition... but here's my initial list... the two LEAVE CAMPAIGNS (see £££s from RUSSIAN DONORS + ISLE OF MAN), everything to do with VOTE LEAVE, everything to do with LEAVE EU, everything to do with CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA / SCL...

... The way so many leading REMAINERS have since become LEAVERS or accepted PEERAGES (see the HOUSE OF LORDS, RUSSIA REPORT), the way David CAMERON quit, the way Nick CLEGG went from leading the LIB DEMS to working for FACEBOOK (WTF???), George OSBORNE working for Evgeny LEBEDEV.

... the lack of criticism of BREXIT on the BBC (see manipulation by omission, PROPAGANDA, DISINFORMATION and MISINFORMATION), the lack of EXPERTS on the BBC, the super-abundance of Nigel FARAGE on the BBC (see QUESTION TIME)...

... the daily PROPAGANDA from our TABLOID PRESS and traditionally BROADSHEET NEWSPAPER... the mainstreaming of DUMBING DOWN across all media and formats...

... setting up of short-lived but potentially important CROSS-PARTY COALITIONS...
BREXIT
Dmitry Grozoubinski
Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?


2/ To put those another way:

"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"

The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.

3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).

That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.

4/ Examples include:

1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;

2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;

3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.

5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.

There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
BREXIT

You May Also Like

ArmaniTalks \U0001f399\U0001f525
ArmaniTalks 🎙🔥...
@ArmaniTalks
Make them irrelevant > Hold a grudge

Holding a grudge is the easy thing to do.

But holding a grudge is not the right thing to do.

A grudge puts poison in your body & rewires your subconscious mind.

You consume the poison & destroy your reality while your attacker sleeps like a baby.
LIFE
Justin Jackson
Justin Jackson
@mijustin
A lot of bootstrappers think they have a marketing problem:

"I need to get better at marketing."

But, it's more likely that you have a product problem:

"Do customers really want this? Do they care enough about this to switch to a new solution?"

☝️ this is why most of my book, @marketingdevs, is about:

1. Choosing the right market
2. Building something they want

"If your product is remarkable, getting noticed is a lot easier." – @peldi


I was reminded of this concept again this morning while reading @pjrvs' book (Company of One):

"Sales increase when you honestly evaluate what someone needs and then teach them the value of what you're selling."


To succeed, your product has to offer an outcome that is highly desirable to a large group of customers.

The number of sales your product receives is a multiple of these two variables:

1. How big is the target market?
2. How desirable is the outcome you're offering them?
STARTUPS
Advertisement
Khatvaanga
Khatvaanga
@khatvaanga
Sri Gurubhyo Namah.
Some tweets on Adi Shankaracharya and in particular the Guru Parampara of @sringerimath. [I had done this series earlier 5 years ago on account of Shishya Sweekaram].


Adi Shankara established the Sringeri Peetham as the 1st of 4 amnaaya peetams.

The four being
1. Sarada Peetam at Sringeri.
2. Govardhana Peetam at Puri
3. Kalika at Dwaraka
4. Jyothir at Badarikashramam.

He installed his 4 most prominent shishyas as heads of the peetams.

Sureshwaracharya was assigned to Sringeri as its head.

Sringeri is a corruption of Rshyashrunga giri.

Rshyashrunga maharshi [and his father Sri Vibandhaka Maharshi] did their tapas at this place.

It is at Sringeri that Shankara spent 12 of His precious 32 years!!

That gives you and idea how much He loved this place.

Rshyashruga maharshi had a horn on his forehead, a result of being born to a deer. His mere presence was enough to shower rains!!

Rshyashrunga was one who led Putrakamesthi Yaagam of Dasaratha Maharaj and which resulted in Sri Rama's birth!!
ALL
Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
1/x Fort Detrick History
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.

2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate


3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes


4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB


5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
AGAMA SHASTRA:THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE MARVELS OF HINDU ARCHITECTURE

Agama Shastra is a Sanskrit word that means the manual for worship, temple building, rituals etc in Hindu Tradition.From Sanskrit,agama means handed down by tradition and Shastra means a commentary or treatise.


Therefore, Agama Shastra is a collection of ideas that drafts the rules for worship, temple construction, spirituality and rituals. It has been a guideline for many Hindus from ancient times. It's a collection of Sanskrit, Tamil and Grantha scriptures that mostly contains...


...methods of temple construction, idol creation, philosophical doctrines and meditative practices. It came into being after years of assimiliation and from a variety of sources. Some parts of it are pre-vedic while some are post-vedic.


Hindu Temples are not just temples, they are the pride and identity of Hindus. They are the symbols of Hindu unity and their religious aspirations. Temples are the places of spiritual healing and are our connection with the creator almighty.


Temples are the priceless treasure of our History, Heritage ,Art & Architecture. Architecture that mesmerises and spell bounds you. And Agama Shastra is that very text which is responsible for such a mesmerising and spell binding quality and beauty of our Hindu Temples.
ALL