In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD

In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.

No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.

No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.