New: the European Parliament's announcement that it will not ratify any treaty before the end of December unless the deal is concluded by midnight on Sunday comes amid signals that, despite progress, a deal won't be concluded until early next week.

2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".

3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.

4/ The EP is saying it wants a "provisional" text from the European Commission "as soon as possible" - not clear if that means even before the midnight deadline

5/ If a deal is not concluded by Sunday night then we are in uncharted waters

Here is the rough transcript and story of @realDonaldTrump's NI envoy, his meeting with @simoncoveney and the alleged threat of the EU using aviation as leverage over the UK if the Internal Market Bill led to a hard border on the island of Ireland.

2/ Mr Mulvaney was talking to the @iiea via video link.

Asked about the concerns in the US over the IMB, which breaches the NI Protocol, Mr Mulvaney said that in his meetings with all sides his worry was that the Bill could result in a border “by accident”.

3/ He told the presentation: “The best response I got on the matter was from Simon Coveney when I met with him in Dublin.

4/ “I said to him..., look, Simon, my fear is this: there’s a no deal Brexit. The IMB kicks in, the Brits don’t want to put up a border on the island, because they know what that means, the Irish don’t want to put up a border across the island because they know what that means.

5/ “The Europeans come in and say, well, if you’re not going to control the flow of goods from outside of the [European] Union [to] inside the Union, from Belfast to Dublin, for the sake of this discussion, we’re going to force you to ring the whole island of Ireland

NEW: European Commission president @vonderleyen: As things stand I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there.

2/ VDL - it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying.

3/ Commission president says the "good news" is we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now a case of being "so close and yet being so far away from each other."

4/ VDL - level playing field: our aim is simply fair competition on our own market.

Says the "architecture" of a level playing field provision rests on two pillars: state aid and standards

5/ On state aid we have made progress based on common princples, guarantees of domestic enforcement, the possibility to autonomously remedy the situation where needed [ie, either side can take action if distortions of trade etc]

Where are we at as of 1450 CET?

Talks continuing, could go on for a while longer. One informed source is suggesting that because the fish deal was agreed at the high political level (btn @vonderleyen and @BorisJohnson) it was left to officials to translate it into real numbers

2/ Some reflections from an EU diplomat briefed on the rest of the deal, which appears to be in place:

3/ "There is nothing particularly surprising. It is consistent with what we've been hearing all along. The UK red lines are respected. Our concerns are also respected. Of course we have to see the fine print, but in general there is a robust level playing field."

4/ The LPF mechanism is said to be a "complicated structure" which works both ways.

5/ "It doesn't mean that because you have these structures you necessarily have to use them. The mood at the moment is, do you want to diverge [from EU standards] for the sake of diverging? In reality, most likely, pragmatism will prevail."

The DUP's Ian Paisley MP tells the NI Affaris Committee that the NI Protocol shd be "removed" and that Article 16 of the Protocol should be invoked. Describes it as an "unmitigated disaster... Those who advocated for the Protocol have some responsibility for that.

"The protocol is now an impediment to trade. We told you so."

Article 16 of the NI Protocol: "If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the EU or the UK may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures.

"Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the
functioning of this Protocol."

Mr Paisley then berates @Freight_NI for not demanding that Article 16 be invoked. Mr Leheny asks him what the alternative is. Mr Paisley says removing the Protocol is the alternative.

Ireland's foreign min @SimonCoveney says there will be no breakthru at the #euco this wk, that EU fishermen will not be "sold out" in order to secure a future relationship deal, and that if there is a deal it will not be ratified unless the UK "remove" Internal Mkt Bill clauses

2/ Speaking at the General Affairs Council Mr Coveney said: “We value fishermen, we value their contribution across the EU and cerainly EU fishermen are not going to be sold out in an effort to get an agreement on a future relationship with the UK on trade.”

3/ He said that while there had been some progress on the level playing field area, there had been “little or no” movement on fisheries. Both sides, he said, had legitimate concerns on the issue.

4/ Mr Coveney had bilateral meetings with both @MichelBarnier and @MarosSefcovic

5/ “There was a very clear message that if we do manage to negotiate a deal on a future relationship agreement that involves many different areas, before that deal can be ratified or finalised, the domestic legislation that the UK has introduced...

BREAKING: The EU’s chief negotiator has told MEPs that negotiations on a post-Brexit deal could continue until Wednesday but no further.

2/ According to sources present, Michel Barnier also warned the UK that a deal would not be approved by member states if it pressed ahead with passing the Internal Market and the Finance Bills into law.

3/ He told the European Parliament’s Brexit coordination committee this morning that US President Elect Joe Biden was also “sensitive” to any impact of UK law on the Good Friday Agreement.

4/ Mr Barnier told MEPs the talks were in the “endgame” and that there would have to be a decision on whether or not there was to be an agreement by Thursday.

5/ He said if there was no deal then the European Commission would be ready “to react immediately” with contingency plans, according to sources present.

After Michel Barnier's briefing of EU ambassadors this afternoon, here's where things stand:

2/ There is a basic deadline of Christmas Eve to get a deal. That will give the EU's legal services time to draw up a letter to send to the UK seeking provisional application of the treaty from Jan 1

3/ It's understood officials will need four days at a minimum to draft a letter seeking provisional application of the treaty (all this is on the basis that it is pretty much too late for the European Parliament to ratify the treaty on time for Jan 1)

4/ On the prospects for a deal: diplomats say they're not ruling out a deal by Christmas eve. Michel Barnier said there had been significant progress. Member states expect to convene a meeting of the Working Party (of Brexit coordinators) every day (except Christmas Day)

5/ Acc to one diplomat Barnier will publish the text once/if it's agreed, but before it's been legally scrubbed. Member states can approve the text via written procedure (sending a formal letter) as there are no Council meetings foreseen to do it in person between now and Dec 31

How significant were @vonderleyen's remarks to the European Parliament this morning?

One senior EU diplomat says takes note in particular of her opening words. "Frankly, I cannot tell you today if in the end there will be a deal."

2/ That this sentiment is being expressed by the European Commission President on Nov 25 with just over a month to Jan 1, is significant. In Brussels there are only two questions: will there be enough time to ratify any deal? Is @BorisJohnson prepared to take a big political step

3/ Yes, it takes two to tango, etc. But it's clear from Von der Leyen's comments that the EU is going to stand firm on the level playing field issue.

4/ “We are ready to be creative but we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market, the main safeguard of European prosperity and wealth" she told the EP.

5/ She repeated the demand for "robust mechanisms" to ensure competition is free and fair over time - ie, going back to the language of the Political Declaration. Also, the need "maintain common high standards now and in the future”. That's the "ratchet" or "evolution" clause

Some compelling evidence at the NI Affairs Committee this morning on Brexit, the risks of smuggling, organised crime, the "soft underbelly" of the Irish border, the loss of the European Arrest Warrant and what might replace it

2/ Giving evidence were Simon Byrne, chief constable of the PSNI, Mark McEwan, assistant chief constable, Steve Rodhouse, of the UK National Crime Agency, and Steve Tracey, of HMRC. Here's the gist of what I've just filed for @rtenews online:

3/ A UK law officer has raised the prospect of intl organised criminals trafficking drugs, people + firearms into the UK via Ireland because of tighter controls at GB ports thanks to Brexit. He also suggested that Ireland may have to tighten security at its ports accordingly.

4/ Steve Rodhouse, DG of Operations with the UK National Crime Agency, said organised criminals would be making a “fundamental choice” as to whether they continue to traffic drugs, people and firearms into the UK via English ports...

5/ ...or whether they might decide to switch routes into the UK through Northern Ireland via the Irish Republic.
Mr Rodhouse told a House of Commons committee that such trafficking was already underway through what could be termed the “soft underbelly” of the Irish border.

Breaking: The DUP and Sinn Fein leaders have sent a joint letter to the European Commission describing as “unacceptable” the alleged threat to the continuity of existing food supplies to Northern supermarkets once the Northern Ireland Protocol takes effect.

2/ The letter, seen by @rtenews, and signed by @DUPleader and @moneillsf, highlights the problem of the need for checks and controls on food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 1 and how that might impact on the supply of food to supermarket chains.

3/ The First/Dep First Ministers write: “It is hard to imagine a more fundamental aspect of everyday life than the purchase of daily food supplies...

4/ "Hence we would ask you to recognise how important it is that the current consideration of the detail of how the Protocol will be applied takes our unique context into account.”

5/ Under the Protocol, food and animal derived products entering NI from Great Britain will be subject to the EU’s food safety regime, meaning that so-called sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks will be required on a range of products destined for supermarket shelves.

BREAKING: The EU and UK have agreed a trusted trader scheme that would mean exemptions from tariffs for up to 98pc of goods flowing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland from January 1, @rtenews has learned.
The other 2% wd potentially avail of rebates from any tariffs.

2/ Tariffs would mostly only apply if no free trade agreement is concluded between the EU and UK.

Both sides have also agreed that agrifood products coming from GB to Northern Ireland will be exempt from requiring export health certificates for a period of at least three months

3/ These have proved the biggest concern for UK supermarket chains in NI, who rely on large and mixed consignments of food coming from GB depots.
Export health certificates can cost up to £200 per product and need to be signed off by a designated veterinary inspector.

4/ It’s understood the issue of how supermkts will comply with EU food safety rules could be dealt with through a UK commitment - possibly a declaration - that it does not intend to change its food safety rules from Jan 1. At that point the rules will be the same as the EU's.

5/ The trusted trade scheme would be subject to a review, or sunset clause, three and a half years after the Protocol comes into effect, according to an internal EU briefing

Here are some observations from the EU side on the touring issue facing musicians

2/ The European Commission offered the UK a standard mobility clause in its draft legal text back in March last year that would cover musicians, sportspersons etc... It's on page 354 of the EU's opening text ahead of the negotiations

3/ Under a standard mobility clause, acc to one official, EU member states can ask for visas for certain people coming to carry out paid activity. However, there's a list of exemptions for people who don't need visas:

4/ This list includes those "travelling for the purpose of business deliberations..., sportspersons or artists [including musicians] performing an activity on an ad-hoc basis, journalists sent by the media of their country of residence, and intra-corporate trainees."

5/ In other words, under a standard mobility provision, musicians, journalists, sports people and business people who travel to discuss contracts etc do not need visas. Officials say this is the standard EU arrangement for third countries, eg the US.

Amid the hail of accusations that the EU wanted to put a hard border on the island of Ireland last Friday, it's worth pointing out what the ill-fated resort to Article 16 was about:

2/ Under the Commission's trade mechanism, any Covid vaccines leaving the EU for third countries would need export authorisations, ie to ensure vaccines were not being exported which were actually part of an avanced purchase agreement between member states + pharma companies

3/ Any movements of exports from one member state to another would NOT have required such an export authorisation

4/ Because of the NI Protocol, Northern Ireland would typically have availed of NOT having to had export authorisations for any vaccines being sent there from Belgium (or wherever)

5/ However, someone in the Commission spotted the fact that, also under the Protocol, there was unfettered movement of goods between NI and GB

NEW: Michel Barnier has told EU member states there has been some movement on the level playing field, and on dispute resolution, but that fisheries talks remain "very difficult" @rtenews understands. Sources say this could go through this week and beyond...

2/ Acc to one senior source, Barnier said there was acceptance that the EU could take retaliatory measures against the UK if it diverged from EU standards but that it would not be "autonomous", in other words, before taking action there wd need to be some dialogue with the UK

3/ "It's the operationalisation of that principle that is now under discussion," acc to source. The EU see this is progress as for a long time the UK refused to accept that if they diverged the EU had a right to do something, says the source

4/ "That principle has now been accepted, but how it is implemented is the nub of the dicussion."

5/ From the EU perspective the concern is the UK might change its rules to make it more competitive, says the source. "Barnier seemed positive that the principle of couter-measures had been agreed."