Open Interest analysis -
- Rise in price & OI rise - upside strength
- Fall in price & OI rise - weakness in market
- Price Increase & OI decrease, unwinding, weak up move
- Price decrease & OI decrease, unwinding, weak down move

#Nifty #OpenInterest #options #AKTradingGurukul

Nifty Weekly RSI is 38 Now .

As per history , it goes up to 30 Levels 13 times in last 22 years.

10 Times Nifty Recovered from there and made new TOP. 👉( Opportunity ) 😍💸💰⛈️

3 Times it dips down below 30 & Nifty corrected more than 15 % from that level. 👉( RISK ) 💔

While trading in stocks, how do you survive in a choppy market and make profits? Here's how I do it 🧵

Choppy markets are difficult to trade. When there's an uptrend like it was in mid-2020 and 2021, it's easy to find out stocks in different ways. (1/18)

And when it is in a clear downtrend, we can simply avoid trading in cash scrips and can take the benefit of selling in F&O.
We don't know for how long the market will be choppy - could be a few days, 2 months, 6 months or a year. (2/18)

You just can't sit with 100% cash for trading in stocks that long. A way to trade needs to be figured out.
After a clear uptrend, market changes the trend and sometimes goes sideways/consolidate for the time being. (3/18)

When it falls after an uptrend, there will be so many supports midway - sometimes it doesn't fall freely. The question is... how can we take trades at this time in cash scrips?
Method One:
When Nifty and small-cap/midcap Index comes at major support keep a watchlist ready. (4/18)

This watchlist is of stocks which are at major support too or at 20, 50 EMA (generally stocks bounces from here if the market supports). Try to find stocks from a strong sector/theme. The next day, if we get a bounce, trade Intraday in that stocks. (5/18)

A few things that we shared recency

a) Vwap Guide : https://t.co/OZOom4RrLx
b) RSi Guide : https://t.co/aL5nNHSoPq
c) 786 MF Guide : https://t.co/612qeG976s
d) 4381 Companies data : https://t.co/Y8tesKmGN6
e) 920 Straddle data for 2021:

Twitter has 1000 dm per day message limit, so i miss out sending via DM if limit is crossed.

But i also post them online after sometime.

A simple beginning in this long journey.🙏

Let us choose the most simplest & most effective of all tools - #Elliottwave
IF the name sounds complex & alien to you, let us call it just #Wave - Why ?
In the market, Prices never flow like a river but unfold like waves.. yes., waves

#Waves advance, then retrace and with each advance & retraces, they gather strength & thus the subsequent advances grow in strength & intensity until they blow themselves up. Then, they go into a quiet mode.
This is Nature's Law; Crowd behaviour and we deal with just that.

What this Nature's Law states is that the advances & declines follow "Fibonacci sequences"
1, (1+1)2, (2+1)3, (3+2)5, (5+3)8, (8+5)13, (13+8)21 & so on...
It has been observed by Ralph.N.Elliott (1939) that these advances move in 5 waves followed by a 3 wave decline - 12345 & abc

What is a wave ? No explanation is given by Elliott himself Why? Co's it's highly subjective at the time of labeling each advance & decline. Each perceives it differently
Then, how do we approach it ?
Demand & supply restrict themselves to a channel till one overpowers the other

This, channeling helps to identify each part of wave as 1st, now, 2nd followed by 3rd, etc.,
1st is an advance
2nd is a retrace of 1st by 38%-61.8% or more but never 100%
3rd is the next advance having gathered strength in 1st & pausing in 2nd and thus with great strength

At 3PM if price is above current and previous days vwap,
There is more than 60% probability of a gap up. (As per 15 years of data on Nifty)

Same is true for cmp below current and previous vwap.

In last 1 year this probability has gone abv 70%.

If you buy/sell at 3 pm and exit at 10 AM next day.
You will have almost 2 profit factor.

7 POWERFUL PERSONAL FINANCIAL HACKS that you wish you knew yesterday.

THREAD: Thumb rules that will make you better in managing your personal finance.

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1. Rule of 72: To estimate when your money will be doubled.

Lets say you are investing in an instrument that gives you 8% p.a.

How long will it take to double your investment:

72 /Rate of interest i.e. 72/8 =9 years.

Conversely, if you come across any plans where they say you'll double your money in 7 years.

Now you can compute the interest rate.

i.e. 72/ 7years = 10.29% p.a.

2. Rule of 144 : To estimate when your money will be tripled.

114/rate of interest p.a. = No. of years required to triple your money.

Eg: lets say you are getting 12% p.a. in an instrument.

Your money will be tripled in 114/12 = 9.5 years.

3. Rule of 70: Estimates the impact of inflation on your wealth.

70 / expected long term inflation = No. of years by when your wealth will be worth half of what it is today.

Your total wealth is Rs. 1 cr. & long term inflation rate is 5%.

70/5 = 14 years.

These are the books i talked about

1
https://t.co/fST4GxCrE2
2
https://t.co/8tTeRlJFHh
3
https://t.co/mmSbaqjBcG
4
https://t.co/6olb6LYh89
5
https://t.co/yEWYDoCM4e
6
https://t.co/OfuAZ98jKT

Inside Bar - Target & Stop Loss

Hello everyone,
Here, I have made a video of an Inside bar trading strategy part 2 which has 90% accuracy.

Save the screener for checking stocks every day

Learn to identify Target & Stop Loss -

Don’t underestimate the power of circuit stocks;
and never underestimate the power of micro caps!
They give the cleanest textbook setups and respect fib levels.

Mind you, you’ve to time your entries and exits perfectly.

Just a quick point that you can note and remember. Next time #Nifty weekly RSI gets into 79-80 levels, that would be the time to move to cash or cut your longs if you are trading.

Current Weekly RSI 44.56

Gold to dxy has made a double bottom on weekly. Gold is showing a breakout on daily falling trendline.
In the correction everything falls, first to move up is gold, followed by equity

@nishkumar1977 @caniravkaria

For first time Dxy correcting with markets, bearish divergence on dxy charts as well

A very pertinent question investors ask:-

"When to sell a stock?"

A small thread🧵which can help u in this process

Hit "Retweet" to educate maximum investors

Lets go👇

(1/20)

First things first:-

There is no set methodology to decide when to sell a stock.

Everybody has their own framework.

These are just some pointers that work for us.

One should create their own framework

(2/20)

Many investors have an anchorship bias.

They never sell in loss even if the fundamentals are deteriorating.

Numerous examples like Yes Bank,DHFL,Vodafone Idea can be seen where retail investors are now stuck.

Don't shy away from admitting mistakes and taking losses

(3/20)

So when to sell a stock?

1. Framework for investment not working out:-

Fundamentals of the company deteriorate:-

When we invest in a company....we create a broad vision of how the targets the company will achieve in the next 3-5 years.

(4/20)

Each quarter we just make sure that the company is slowly moving toward the guided path.

There can be delays due to business realities.

If the company completely digresses from the required path!

Eg:-

Since 2018,Sterlite tech saw a sharp deterioration in fundamentals

(5/20)

A durable market bottom will be formed at:
Peak Interest rates
Peak US Dollar
Peak Inflation.
Sentiment has to move to expectations of poor economic outlook, falling inflation and imminent rate cuts by central banks to support the economy .
Still some way off.

My past experience tells me to turn cautions on any asset class, the moment #GOLDMANSACHS gives incremental target when , it has already run towards extreme
As #GS sees #CrudeOil at 140 , I rein in my one-way Bullish optimism, I have been bullish since 40s-60s, 120 now
#OOTT