My past experience tells me to turn cautions on any asset class, the moment #GOLDMANSACHS gives incremental target when , it has already run towards extreme
As #GS sees #CrudeOil at 140 , I rein in my one-way Bullish optimism, I have been bullish since 40s-60s, 120 now
#OOTT

A very pertinent question investors ask:-

"When to sell a stock?"

A small thread🧵which can help u in this process

Hit "Retweet" to educate maximum investors

Lets go👇

(1/20)

First things first:-

There is no set methodology to decide when to sell a stock.

Everybody has their own framework.

These are just some pointers that work for us.

One should create their own framework

(2/20)

Many investors have an anchorship bias.

They never sell in loss even if the fundamentals are deteriorating.

Numerous examples like Yes Bank,DHFL,Vodafone Idea can be seen where retail investors are now stuck.

Don't shy away from admitting mistakes and taking losses

(3/20)

So when to sell a stock?

1. Framework for investment not working out:-

Fundamentals of the company deteriorate:-

When we invest in a company....we create a broad vision of how the targets the company will achieve in the next 3-5 years.

(4/20)

Each quarter we just make sure that the company is slowly moving toward the guided path.

There can be delays due to business realities.

If the company completely digresses from the required path!

Eg:-

Since 2018,Sterlite tech saw a sharp deterioration in fundamentals

(5/20)

DXY and commodities usually don't move in the same direction.

One of them has to give-in.

My money (not literally) is on commodities reversal in near future.

Even in the past, whenever the inverse relationship appeared to be broken, it always resolved in the favour of USD.

Since many of you'll asked..
I love gapups upon results..I find them v powerful tools esp if they don't get filled over the first 3-5 days.
On the flip side..gapdown breakdowns are something i totally dislike..so i prefer to watch and watch...
DN, Tata Chem, Balaji

This is what a gapup breakout can potentially do..
Tesla's 10-20x move also started with a Gapup...

and before you'll start thinking gaps lead to multi bag moves..do remember..Tesla had fallen 60% before it started its move..
Most of our stocks currently already trading at rich valuations.

And lastly while on the subject of gaps..here is one which did gapdown on high volumes..
One of my biggest winners of 2020..
Never covered the gap and drifted downwards..

Just doing this as hindsight analysis to show visual examples of gapups and downs.

Prices fall, then, margins/topline takes beating, then, rerating normalizes, then, market loses interest, derating happens.Nothing excites - topline/margin. Market does not find quock triggers. Value emerges. Oneday triggers come, prices rise, growth comes, rerating happens

Many mid and small cap stocks are in correction phase. Watch 39 EMA closely many will take support from there and bounce back.

*Focus on Good Fundamental Stocks.
*Avoid stocks which go through lower circuit in last few days.
*keep tight stoploss below 55 EMA.

Most important candlestick patterns for stock selection:
Candlesticks are very good representation of psychology of traders in the market and hence the success rate of candlesticks pattern is very high.

Stan Weinstein's Ideal Short Sale areas:

Ran a screen:

1) US listing
2) Mkt cap > $500M
3) EBITDA margins >15%
4) ROE > 20%
5) 5-yr revenue and EBITDA CAGR > 5%
6) Net leverage < 3x

Far from perfect for various reasons, but solid list of quality companies to research.

Some quick observations:

Company like $HD not captured because ROE is negative (negative BV due to repo/divs).

Company like $AMZN not captured because not 15% EBITDA margin.

Highly acquisitive businesses ($CHTR, $WCN, etc.) not captured due to intangibles depressing ROE...

...this last element is a big issue I have with these screens...underlying unit economics may be excellent but GAAP accounting can obscure based on headline ROE.

End of the day, screens like this are backwards looking so far from perfect, but can glean some interesting insights.

2 more observations: great business like $COST is low margin but has high asset turns so generates high ROIC/ROE but not captured because of margin element I screened for.

Also, great businesses that can carry high leverage ($EQIX, $PLD, etc.) not captured due to leverage screen

Used Bloomberg to do this screen. Can also be done via CapIQ.

https://t.co/ld4AiwlHOd https://t.co/ED7xFBgTiS

Look for 178 stocks filtering out my screen of Price above 50 & 200 MA and a very strong relative strength. I run separate screeners for both of them & then find the common names. A sample for

The Q4F22 Earnings season is almost here!

What are the Key things that you need to track in various businesses like Hospitals 🏥, Pharma🩹, Chemicals 🧪 and Music🎵 etc ⤵️⤵️

I will be analysing the companies and the expectations in two ways:-

1⃣What does the company do and the sales split?
2⃣What to expect from the results/Business direction?

1. Divis Labs:

Over the years Divis has proven its capabilities as an API player and has the highest Ebitda margins (44%) when compared to the other Pharma companies. 57% of the business in the last Quarter Q3FY22 was contributed by Synthesis and 43% by Generic API’s.

What to expect?

Molnupiravir has contributed to almost 21% of sales for Divis in FY22 (According to Kotak).
Investors will need to track the recovery in the Generic API division which has been soft for the last 3 quarters and growth in CDMO ex of Molnupiravir.

What to look for in Financials?

Key monitorable to track is by how much the topline grows or degrows QoQ. Given the base was high in last Quarter due to Molnupiravir Sales.

Topline sustaining above 2100 crores and margins above 41% will be good!

What is #Trendindicator ?
Technical Analysis with "Macd"

Do back test on index & stocks in #Tradingview chart using MACD, how your trading positions would have been on the right side!

https://t.co/I2n6qX4TL2

Spend just 15-30 minutes to learn a skill
with 100% focus & attention

The only way you can capture this whole move is by following the price where it goes, trailing your SL. Any attempt to prempt, and you would be out

SAR trades can capture the whole move.

Reversal Stocks
Near supertrend buy
With good fundamentals

You can create amazing combos using @mystockedge
Keep it simple. Use StockEdge