Happy Tuesday! The latest focal S:N501 build is now updated with sequences from 11 Jan.
There are 101 new sequences in the 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2 variants.

Additionally, I'll include some updates on S:E484K in this thread.

1/20

https://t.co/dXx6nk6Llz

There are 97 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1, including the first sequences in the cluster from Slovakia, Mexico, & Belgium, plus additional sequences from the Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Spain, Ireland, & Sweden.

2/20

Slovakia has 10 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time. These are closely linked, & likely indicate a single introduction and ongoing transmission (remember: vertical distance is not meaningful on the same branch - position of the 2 English samples is arbitrary).

3/20

Belgium has 5 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the 1st time, indicating 3 separate intros. 3 seqs cluster together (zoomed, divergence), indicating a single introduction. The connection to Netherlands might indicate transmission, or 2 transmissions from same diversity in the UK.

4/20

Mexico also has a sequence that falls into 501Y.V1 for the first time.

5/20

Without getting into the ins and outs of the ‘Is Christmas pagan?’ debate, it’s worth dealing with some faulty assumptions people often make about the ‘Christianisation’ of pre-Christian traditions (buckle up for the thread…)

First of all, language people use in this area can be quite emotive, e.g. talk of Christians ‘usurping’ or ‘sanitising’ a pre-existing pagan festival. There’s a tendency to ascribe a collective agency that never existed to ‘the Church’ or ‘Christians’ when it comes to Midwinter

That wasn’t how it worked; there was no centralised programme of reforming popular festivities. The Church introduced liturgical celebration of Christmas to northern pagan cultures; how those Christianised cultures then dealt with Midwinter festivities as a whole varied widely

The minds and behaviour of early medieval people weren’t software programmed by a Church that exercised total control. The Church showed sporadic interest in popular celebrations, but its main concern was Christian rites and belief - not suppressing all pre-Christian legacies

(By the way, it’s always a bit perilous to apply the term ‘pagan’ to pre-Christian legacies, because we know so little about pre-Christian religion we have no reliable way of distinguishing between *specifically religious* pre-Christian customs and others)

THREAD: Gorilla Troop Comms

These people are

2) Orig. tweet & timestamp

3) start >

San Diego

Members of the Gorilla [guerilla] Troop

San Diego

two guerillas

current circumstances

initiated the process

through

California

detected the presence of the virus in the gorilla troop > infiltrated?

confirmed the positive results

4) results confirm the presence

some of the gorillas

does not definitively rule out the presence

in other members of the troop > infiltrated by more than 1?

some congestion > trouble w/ communications

the gorillas are doing well

troop remains

together

full recovery

5) suspected

guerillas

acquired

infection from an asymptomatic staff member > again signaling infiltrated

precautions

protocols

wearing PPE when near the gorillas > ordering them wear masks

verified that some non-human > [I'm not decoding this one - WTF]

Imagine if, in the midst of the massive BLM riots this summer, the entire tech infrastructure had deplatformed Facebook because some had used that app to plan events devolving into violence. People would rightly have called that an insane act of ideological fascism.

Yet today, media will celebrate Amazon doing exactly that to Parler. The tech bros are making a horrible and dangerous moment significantly more horrible and dangerous. There are no consistent standards being applied. There is reactionary deplatforming in the name of one side.

Private companies are by law free to do what they like. That’s why I have always said that the solution to the censorship of Twitter is alternatives -- which is what Parler was attempting to be, whatever its flaws.

But when the technological instruments necessary for speech are located in essentially three companies, all of which are moving toward like-minded censorship (Amazon controls about half of all public-cloud infrastructure, Microsoft 16%, and Google 4%), that avenue closes.

I am by nature anti-regulation. But even the consumer-based theory of anti-monopoly championed by free market advocates cuts in favor of anti-monopolistic regulation if these companies are acting in de facto collusion to shut all avenues of dissent.

My friend Larry King has died.

It is literally true that thousands of us can make that sad statement this morning. While he was easily caricatured, I’ve never known anybody who made a bigger deal out of the slightest kindness afforded him.

#RIPLarryKing

1) 25 years ago...

Here's our Sunday Wrapup
- Our 2021 Spring Previews are out (will be linked below
- Bike shortages will be a real thing this year. We're already feeling it with some brands.
- We're upset/scared/frustrated about Covid, and are limiting appointments to urgent repairs only.

City Bike Preview--> Breezer, @VSFManufaktur, @gazellebikesusa
Affordable transportation. Reliable & built to last (with 10 year warranties). Fun and easy to ride every day.

Gazelle E-bike Preview--> Ultimate Series (Completely Amaazing, and new!), Medeo Series (sporty and fun), Upright Series (Maximum Dutchiness).
--
Good availability on most models, limited availability on Arroyo Elite and EasyFlow

Family Cargo Bike Preview--> @ternbicycles @UrbanArrowcom @larryvsharry @babboe_bakfiets
--
So many amazing choices to have fun with your family while getting stuff done. Our family is rolling with a Larry vs Harry Bullitt, and a Tern GSD in 2021.

Cargo Bikes for Business -->
This is a new opportunity for local businesses to take advantage of an incredible $2000 grant toward an electric cargo bike. We're here to consult with you on the best way to move your business forward, on a

Thread

MAGA will have nothing to do with January 20th. However Antifa/BLM have planned events for January 20th.

I don't like quote-tweeting for the purpose of argument, but I want to quickly push back against an apparently popular tweet saying people don't want to come to America. This is, of course, nonsense.

The US remains the most popular destination of choice for immigrants, though we take far fewer people per capita than e.g. Canada or Australia.

To use an overused word, it's a sign of privilege that you think there aren't people who'd love even a lower class American lifestyle.

The groups least likely to immigrate here are the ones with the least to gain. If you're a wealthy European, you've got to have a pretty good offer on the table to come. Or a loved one you want to be with. Or you really like American cheese, perhaps.

It's just another face of American exceptionalism to think this country is especially bad. We didn't invent corruption or bad leaders or prejudice. We've excelled at a few forms of evil no doubt, but do you think that really deters someone from wanting their income multiplied 5x?

Put it this way - suppose there's a Mars colony run by a crazy billionaire. You despise Martian politics, and you know some Martians would look down on you for your appearance and accent. But, by going there, you take your current income and add a zero to it.

1/ For all those now reporting on QAnon following the events of last week. "Q" has not posted since December 8. QAnon is a self sustaining movement and ideology, with as many variations as there are influencers and conspiracy theories latched on to the central QAnon tenet.

Thread: The @PSCupdates latest campaign to write to the Foreign Secretary accusing Israel of 'medical apartheid' over Covid vaccinations is abhorrent. This thread takes apart the “medical apartheid” lie. (1)

PSC cites the Geneva Convention and the obligations an occupier has to the occupied. But the Oslo Accords - a big step towards Palestinian statehood and sovereignty - gave the PA control of their own healthcare provision – something they wanted as a step towards statehood. (2)

On 21/11/20 the Palestine Authority (PA) meet with WHO, UNICEF, UNRWA to ensure that it was provided with adequate Covid vaccines. Israel wasn’t invited to these talks. (3)

The PA continue to acquire Covid vaccinations independently and on 12/12/20 ordered 4million doses of the Russian vaccine. (4)

On 9 Jan the PA announced that “Four vaccine producer companies [will deliver for] 70% of the Palestinian people... the WHO will provide for 20%.” Still not asking Israel for help. (5)

By intimidating ICC, we killed our new constitution and lost an important historical chance. Fifth thread on Railaphobia in Kikuyuland - LONG THREAD

Kenyans are very thankless. We don’t honour heroes and those who sacrifice for the common good. That’s why charlatans, thieves, and murderers flourish in our politics. In this thread I focus on Kikuyu betrayal that has landed us into the current crisis

A Kikuyu succeeded Moi through a twist of fate, but their leaders were completely outwitted by Moi. It was very selfish to turn around and spread malicious hate against Raila once Kibaki became the President. Without Odinga family, Moi wouldn’t have gone anywhere.

Kikuyus profile of betrayal is painful. Having suffered so much humiliation and victimization under Moi they were all helpless. Moi had control of the police and judiciary and had given immunity to those who offended Kikuyus in any way, including killing them.

Kikuyu houses in Rift Valley would be burnt at will and no legal recourse. A close Moi aide in Maasai land, William OleNtimama openly threatened and insulted Kikuyu people even in Moi presence. “Lie low like an antelope” he would reprimand Kikuyus in Narok

Thread : this is going to be my penultimate post on Swedish mortality & covid. After SCB's next update, Jan 18th, we can consider the prel. numbers for all cause mortality 2020 fully stable, and I will then do a final update. What follows below, is still subject to minor updates.

2/n: To get ahead of media, who no doubt any hour now will report "Sweden has highest number of deaths since 1918!", here's what the absolute deaths deaths look like:

3/n: So expect media headlines painting Sweden as "The World's Cautionary Tale". However, with a little bit of thought and analysis, we might reach different conclusions... Let's first take population size into account:

4/n: when adjusting for population, 2020 as we speak (remember, the numbers are not fully finalized yet) has mortality on par with 2015. Can you spot the two outliers...? (hint: 2020 is not one of them).

5/n: As I've mentioned earlier, it's not enough to adjust for population - different years have quite different demographics in terms of age. So we need to take that into account, by adjusting for age: