A thread.

Earnings Trades Simplified.

Earnings announcements are public announcements that display a company’s earnings, or lack thereof. As the earnings announcement gets closer, implied volatility tends to increase. After earnings are announced,...

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the uncertainty of what will happen diminishes, and usually we see a rapid decrease in implied volatility because of it. Because of this phenomena, we tend to stick to premium selling strategies when it comes to earnings plays. We can take advantage...

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of the implied volatility crush by selling premium prior to the announcement, and buying it back after the announcement.

Earnings trades are not for everyone, as they involve high amounts of uncertainty and random movements.

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Why Trade Earnings -

-Increase number of occurrences, many trades available so increases of our probability of profit.

-High IV opportunities

-Short term Binary event leading to drastic volatility crush.

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Factors to consider when placing earnings trade -

1. Expected Move
2. When to place trade
3. Historical Moves
4. Strategies based on market conditions

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@realDonaldTrump
Whenever the name Clinton is dropped, rest assured there's something big behind the veil. "Let's dig" into the mystery of Eric Hothem / Eric Hoteham & JP Morgan. 🤓

Here's the best argument for expanding & thereby repairing the Supreme Court. Over the past 2 decades, starting with Bush v. Gore, the court's conservative majority has pursued an aggressive agenda to keep Republicans in power & Republicans in turn appointed conservative justices

This has skewed our political system & improperly increased the number of conservative justices. Those justices have skewed the system to preserve GOP control in Tuesday's Census decision, Citizens United & Shelby County v. Holder (overturning Sec. 5 of the Voting Rights Act) AND

in Gill v. Whitford (upholds outrageous GOP gerrymandering in Wisconsin) and in cases upholding strict voter ID laws & other partisan GOP maneuvers.

There's a strong argument that the GOP has improperly gotten three SCOTUS seats that should have gone to Democratic appointees.

Bush v. Gore was essentially a 5-4 judicial coup that awarded the presidency to George W. Bush. Bush appointed two justices (Roberts & Alito) & if Gore had been president for Bush's two terms, those vacancies would have been filled by Democratic appointees

Republicans stole a seat by not considering Merrick Garland. So there's a strong case that GOP presidents filled 3 vacancies that Democrats should have filled. This created today's 5-4 conservative majority when there'd be a 7-2 liberal majority if Democrats filled those seats.

There will be an end to this thing, and its not as remote as it may seem. Focus on the light at the end of the tunnel. We just need to hold out for three more weeks.

Holding out for three more weeks is a recommendation for patriots not to engage in counter-productive action. People mustn’t succumb to the anger, demoralization and frustration that they are currently experiencing.

This period is crucial, as the leftist mobilizations are all headed for their denouement. After the election, the restraint that is currently holding back the federal government will be removed.

After the election, the rules of engagement will change, as patriot and federal responses will no longer be constrained by election optics. This is the light at the end of the tunnel.

Once this variable is gone, the gloves come off. The federal government will be able to roll these guys up, and patriots will be free to declare open season on the communist insurgents.

Is Autism Self-Diagnosis Valid? A Very Long Thread

TL, DR: Yes. It’s valid.

Now for the long version: there are some folks on Twitter that say that some of us have no right to claim we are #ActuallyAutistic without an official diagnosis by a medical authority of some kind.

There are some problems with this mentality. One of the biggest is that some of us simply do not have adequate access to the formal diagnostic process. There are many things that can affect access:
lack of financial resources, social anxieties or phobias —

— which may make it difficult to persist in going to offices and clinics that may be frightening, some of us may have trauma that makes it difficult to approach these places at all.

Some of us may have had specific negative experiences with the medical community already, we may have lost valuable trust, & we might feel discouraged from even trying to obtain a diagnosis for this reason.

Not to mention there might also be sensory issues associated with medical facilities and government institutions (waiting rooms can be an ordeal in themselves, sensory-wise!)

Thread: If you don't think that those who have to self-diagnose aren't #actuallyautistic then you really don't understand #autism or how hard it is to get a diagnosis. It took me years to get diagnosed, but that doesn't mean I wasn't autistic before I was. 1/

People I respect who talk advocate far more than I do have already spoken about this today, but it can't be said enough. It's incredibly hurtful, and can be harmful, for people to make judgements about anyone they don't know, but particularly autistic individuals 2/

We talk about #autism spectrum as if it's a straight line. It really isn't. Autistic children grow into autistic adults and things change. Yours, mine and someone else's experiences will be different. It's not a straight line you can put a pin in and say you're here on. 3/

I don't care who you are or how righteous you think your cause, you don't have right to tell #actuallyautistic people you don't think they are, whether they have a formal diagnosis or are self-diagnosed, and I will block anyone who does for starters. Just leave people alone. 4/

There's enough misinformation doing the rounds making it harder for #autistic individuals as it it. The last thing anyone needs is someone claiming to be advocating for them feeding that misinformation and hurting people who are #actuallyautistic. 5/

Lots of discussion on media coverage of BIG BETS this week. They’re click-bait-y. Novel. Maybe there’s some envy or schadenfreude at play. But that’s not the real issue. The problem is how operators control media coverage.
👇

I don’t find big bets nearly as problematic as, say, coverage of someone hitting a 12-leg parlay, but the reason we are inundated with this type of coverage is the same: the operators are deciding what is newsworthy and what isn’t.

The issue is pretty fundamental. Most sports betting media entities exist only because of operators. They are literally paid by operators. That’s how the affiliate model works. Would we be ok if a newspaper covering the Trump White House were funded by the administration?

We’d expect some bias, wouldn’t we? As a result, the sports betting media is mainly a marketing arm for operators right now. Journalists have relationships with operators, who feed them information they want published. Operators understand the accessibility bias & exploit it.

Back to that 12-leg parlay. Operators *love* the 12-leg parlay because their theoretical hold multiplies as the number of legs on the parlay increases. Do operators want to see parlay success stories covered? YES!

SKULL TOWER

The Skull Tower is a stone monument, embedded with human skulls that was constructed by soldiers of the Ottoman Empire after the Battle of Cegar in 1809.
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The Battle of Cegar, (also called the Battle of Kamenica) was a conflict during the First Serbian Uprising in the Sanjak of Smederevo (an Ottoman administrative division) between the Serbian Revolutionaries and Ottoman forces on Cegar hill near the city of Nis in Serbia.
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Before the battle, the Serbian Revolutionaries had constructed six large defensive positions to force the Ottoman’s defending from the Nis fortress to capitulate, but the Ottoman’s used the negotiations to delay the conflict in time for 20,000 reinforcements from Rumelia.
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The battle lasted a whole day, with fierce hand-to-hand fighting resulting in thousands of losses on both sides and concluding in the Serbian Revolutionaries being forced to retreat in defeat to the town of Deligrad.
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As a warning to further revolutionaries in the region, the Ottomans collected the heads from the Serbian dead and peeled off the skin.

The heads were stuffed with straw and sent to the Ottoman sultan, Mahmud II at the Imperial Palace in Istanbul to celebrate the victory.
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1/ Total freedom isn't always your friend.

I always thought the goal was 100% location independence, where I can pick and choose anywhere to live. This has it's perks for sure, but it has more drawbacks than I'd like to admit.

2/ I've lived in 3 countries over 24 months (unintentional nomad). Currently looking for a place to get permanent residence and plant some long-term roots in LATAM.

3/ I've been on-the-ground in 7 LATAM countries, and tbh the more cities I visit, the harder it is for me to know where it is I should be.

4/ There's not a ton holding me to any one place now that my team works remotely, and every place on earth, no matter how perfect, has it's drawbacks.

5/ If I take an in-office job I really want in a place that's 70% optimal, it's easier IMO to commit to that place than if I'm working remotely in a place that's 90% optimal. Why? Because there's real consequences if I decide to leave (losing the job).

Colleagues, we need to talk about the damage that endless zooming can do. Every day I see new opportunities to join in this or that online discussion or conference, and each invitation is becoming a burden 1/... #AcademicTwitter #AcademicChatter

For many of us, online conferencing is the main form of contact we have with others. But it's a stripped down form of contact which demands a particular focus and concentration. Colleagues tell me every day that it's more intense, and thus tiring, than IRL interaction 2/...

Communication is attenuated because many of the usual social and symbolic cues that tell us where we are, what our role is, how to interact and respond, are missing. This is especially awful if our interlocutors have their cameras switched off and we're talking into a void 3/...

But we also lose the rest and reset time between events. Instead of those precious minutes on a train to read, or a brisk walk between venues, even just a chat around the coffee pot, we are increasingly leaving one meeting to log on to another 4/...

We do so with no other backdrop than our own four walls, in one chair, glued to a screen, unable to reach out. Our symbolic and social worlds have shrunk. @PostEurope told me it's a form of torture, but that's literally true: a stress position we maintain for days 5/...

Sharing one incident... After Modi's Trichy youth conference, the very next morning when police were clearing up their mini-control room, they found 5 strange boys who were roaming there with bags. When police enquired them "Sir, we are from Subramaniapuram in Trichy.

Whatever political meeting or conference is held in this ground, we come here on the same night or morning hours to collect the Liquor bottles to sell in the scrap shop for 50 paisa to 1 rupee per bottle and we used to earn Rs 200 to Rs 400 on each such event.

Even in the last DMK meeting the very next day we collected around 1500 bottles. But for Modi's BJP meeting, we could not find even a single bottle in the whole ground. We are coming around and around and not a single bottle in any corner of the G Corner ground in Trichy,

we are much disappointed, sir!". Police seem were stunned and pleasantly surprised. This is what Modi magic does in this nation. Modi is the one who can lead our nation and make everyone prosper with hardwork in right direction and proper approach.

This funny but interesting anecdote was published by a statewide local daily Dinamalar. I have just translated and posting it here for rest of the nation;

Today we have @SarahGriff90 discussing her recently published paper 'Early language competence, but not general cognitive ability, predicts children’s recognition of emotion from facial and vocal cues'.

Although most children with Developmental Language Disorder (DLD) do not develop mental health problems, they are at greater risk compared to their typically developing peers.

If we want to intervene to minimise this risk, we need to understand why DLD is associated with poorer mental health.

One possibility we are exploring in SCALES is that poor language reduces the ability to recognise and reason about emotions, which in turn increases risk of mental ill health.

Our first step to testing this theory was to test whether early language competence predicts emotion recognition (ER).

Interesting to realize that the living things that lay the foundation of the biosphere are extremely robust as compared to the humans that are destroying the biosphere.

Seed can remain dry and dormant for ages only to reborn when provided the proper nutrients. In contrast, most animals require a continual living vessel to reconstruct itself from its DNA.

Evolution appears to constantly perform tradeoffs between robust organisms and organisms that are adaptable. Co-evolution makes possible the development of complex species as a consequence of robust organisms.

We exist as a consequence of the multitude of less complex individuals that make up our biosphere. We are in fact symbionts that are in constant cooperation with our microbiome. Absent our individual ecologies leads to death.

We are inseparable from our microbiome, we are inseparable from our societies, and we are inseparable from our biosphere. The biggest lie we are told is that as individuals, we are independent of our world.

🔥 Putting ML in Production! We're going to publicly develop @madewithml's first ML service. Here is the broad curriculum:

- 📦 Product
- 🔢 Data
- 🤖 Modeling
- 📝 Scripting
- 🛠 API
- 🚀 Production

More details (lessons, task, etc.) here: https://t.co/xmMm9XGK9j

Thread 👇

Questions that this thread will answer:

- What is it?
- Who is this course for?
- What is the format?
- What makes this course unique?
- Why constrain to open source tools?
- What are my qualifications?
- Why is this free?
- What are the

What is it?

Putting ML in Production: a guide and code-driven case study on MLOps. We will be developing and deploying Made With ML's first ML service, from Product → ML → Production, with open source tools.

This ML service will act as a foundation for all future ML features and subsequent iterations. The first feature is tagifai - multilabel classification of tags for a project. We'll discuss the need and utility of this feature in the first lesson.

Who is this course for?

- ML developers looking to become end-to-end ML developers.
- Software engineers looking to learn how to responsibly deploy and monitor ML systems.
- Product managers who want to have a comprehensive understanding of the different stages of ML dev.

Dear DeepState,
We the American People elected D.J.Trump. You thought you knew better. So..we played along as every media called him racist, misogynistic, homophobic, and even illegitimate. We played along as you said Russia interfered with the elections. Cont...

We played along as you accused him of collusion. We played along as you allowed a Mueller investigation. We played along as you said he would fire Mueller. We played along as we found out about Strozk and Page’s texts and they were removed. We played along as A Shift said...

“there is Russian collusion in plain sight” and hinted he knew more, which was a lie. We played along as Comey lies were told to us as factual, and he was eventually fired. We played along as you forced AG Sessions to recuse himself. We played along as Bill Barr made promises..

We played along as the House was taken by the Democrats and they did nothing but work to hurt Trump for two years. We played along as they performed the only partisan impeachment in history, and lost in the Senate, because it was baseless.

We played along as you told us there was a whistle blower, but we couldn’t say his name. We played along as Epstein didn’t kill himself, while in your care! We played along as every day was filled with hate for our choice as President. We played along as Durham failed us.

Ok so I thought I’d throw at least my opinion in about this whole “Chinese Troops in Canada” deal.

In my honest opinion..... hopefully this will be a breakdown that they wanted us to.... ya know to add to “Red October”

Canada and China’s main colors... Red. Month. October.

Where was there a wall built? Why was it built in addition to stopping trafficking?

Think dangerous animals and a cage....

Now where are the Chinese Troops mainly stationed? Along which state border?

Washington.... why? If you and your sick band of misfits had to make a dash to a border.... from California thru Oregon and then thru Washington State..... they would think “Well hell... it’s time for French fries and gravy!”

As Trooper Ramathorn would put it...

Now does one think that they would simply just be able to skip into the land of Maple Syrup, Hockey and Poutine?

Maybe if England still had control of Canada would that happen.... but silly goose.... the United States of America decided on July 13, 2018...