MEGATHREAD. Be patient, there's a lot of terminology.

We're looking at "book votes." That is, people who are marked as having voted in the voter rolls. This is how Floyd County was detected - you had an excess of voters in the book vs. what was recorded on machines.

Last night I mapped the book votes visually at a precinct level and found curious correlations that bears public scrutiny.

Screencaps are not from a public site, but underlying data given is real, public, and verifiable.

We'll be taking a precinct-by-precinct look at Fulton county excess votes. Excess meaning more recorded votes than book.

Fulton has 10K+ excess votes. This has been blamed on stale record keeping. At a precinct level, there are 14700 "excess" votes and 3900 "missing" votes.

This is a precinct map of Fulton County. There'll be a lot of data, so refer to these maps over and over until you understand. Here, the red and yellow/orange areas are where the most excess votes are (by ratio).

And for background context - this is a map showing where Trump votes are. This is a *relative* coloring not an absolute coloring (otherwise it'd be all blue). Fulton is strongly Democratic so the red areas are actually like 55% Trump at best whereas the blue areas are <5% Trump.

1/14 How do e-cigarettes (ECs) affect cigarette smoking among youth? My new paper with @FloeFoxon simulates each scenario and finds out which one best matches actual trends... https://t.co/dBB7kcnTls @jgitchell @mikepesko @SwitchFinder @jkelovuori @TobPolicy @Clive_Bates

2/14 First, let's talk about why this question is so difficult to answer: COUNTERFACTUALS. We can't know the alternate-reality answers, like which smokers would have never started in a world without ECs, and which nonsmokers would now be smoking without ECs as an option.

3/14 So, the best we can do is use fancy/sophisticated methodologies to estimate what would have happened to youth smoking rates in the absence of ECs. In our case, simulation modeling

4/14 First, we look at the declining smoking trends *that were already happening* before ECs came (~2010), and project them into the present. This is our BASE-CASE SCENARIO about what smoking trends would be if ECs were never invented. Actual trends were LOWER than this base-case

5/14 Side note about terminology: We use the term “catalyst” instead of “gateway,” because “catalyst” is more precise about the claim we are modeling (that ECs are used first, and then causally lead to smoking). Whereas "gateway" can include other mechanisms like renormalization.

Aries, Leo, Sagittarius, 2021 tarot reading -

2020 was a year of rebirth and awakening for you. A lot of you went through a massive change, which lead you to discover who you are on a deeper level, and open your eyes to a whole different side of life, and what you want from it

I see a big change happened for you last year. Something that you thought was going to be in your life forever, or someone, wasn’t anymore. There was a certain direction you saw yourself going in, but last year caused you to have to re-evaluate that, and that wasn’t easy for you.

I see here a lot of you could have dealt with a break up. This person could have lacked emotional maturity when handling this, therefore causing you a lot of pain. I see this whole situation triggered a lot within you. A lot of fears, and negative behaviours came to the surface.

This may have highlighted some of the aspects of yourself you did not want to see or face, but ultimately you had to. I do see this is something you’re still working through, which there’s nothing wrong with of course! Everything, especially healing, takes time! And that is okay

I do see that last year you spent a lot of time analysing your thoughts. You may have spent a lot of time alone, going through this rebirth and transformation. You should be proud of yourself for this, as it wasn’t easy, but you got through it!

From DC Metro Police Dept;
Tues 01/05/2021-Thurs 01/07/2021, multiple 1st Amendment demonstrations are expected to occur in D.C. In conjunction w/ these demonstrations, there will be parking restriction & potential street closures that motorists should take into consideration:

Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support.

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic.

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia).

Legendary Lithuanian satire show Dviračio Žinios ("Bicycle News") features an improvised conversation between @MartinHelme and @GLandsbergis. I'll post English translations to this thread

(Part 1)

- Tere tere Martin Helme. And what did you tell to that Estonian Radio, that our elections were forged?
- But it was just like that. Lithuania elected too many liberals and women. It's not fair
- But if we forged our elections, our victory wouldn't be so small <...>

(Part 2)

- <...> and also our elections happened in October. You what, noticed only now?
- Well, we noticed instantly. And we were fast to react
- But it's January. 3 months passed
- That's what I'm saying, "we were fast to react"
<...>

(Part 3)

<...> By the way Martin, how is the financial situation during pandemic in Estonia now?
- I'm trying not to think about that
- But you're Estonian Minister of Finances
- That's exactly why I'm trying not to think about it. It's better to think about a "deep state" <...>

(Part 4)

- <...> that controls Lithuania now
- What deep state? Well we do have a few holes in our roads around Biržai but they're not that deep. And here we don't have anything deep, only some stuff on the surface, on the surface... Of course, asphalted.
<...>

I'm in the later stages of purchasing a niche sub-contractor in the SE US. I'm now working with the sellers on the nitty gritty handover items that need to be transitioned. Here is a summary of my working list:

Insurance: (Staying with current provider)
- auto coverage on fleet of 40+ vehicles.
- General liability policy.
- Workers Comp policy.
- Bonding, done on a job by job basis, for a minority of their work. (I got a backup quote from another bonding agent for a fall back).

Benefits:
- I'm doing an asset purchase, so retirement benefits will likely have to start fresh under new entity. Will keep the same provider.
- Health Insurance will remain with incumbent, but have to migrate and re-enroll everyone under new LLC.
- Exhaustive list of emp perks.

Payroll:
- Currently done in-house, and paid weekly. Will keep the same, but need to get everything lined up based on timing of close and bank account. (See below).

Bank Accounts:
- Goal is to keep the same bank account for now, to reduce number of changes- less to go wrong. Built in a true-up with sellers for any payments post-close that shouldn't have carried over. MAKE SURE to change authorized signers.

“It’s been a horrendous year for victims of abuse,” Nicole Jacobs, the designated 1st domestic abuse commissioner for England & Wales. As England goes into new lockdown, the horrendous will continue. I made this in May 🎥 @rerutled

66%: The increase in the number of calls to the National Domestic Abuse helpline in March-May 2020 reported by Refuge
40%: The increase in the number of calls to the Women’s Aid chat line service in first two weeks of lockdown in March 2020

On Tuesday, the domestic abuse bill, which includes creation of Jacobs’ role, goes to the House of Lords. The bill for 1st time will create a statutory definition of domestic abuse that encompasses emotional, coercive or controlling,and economic abuse as well as physical violence

14 women were recorded by Counting Dead Women as killed by men in 1st 3 weeks of lockdown in UK: highest rate for 11yrs.
Where’s the vaccine vs patriarchy?
Women, children, queer people are being terrorized at home. Home is where the hurt is
🎥 @rerutled


As England goes into 3rd lockdown, escaping domestic abuse was listed as a reason to break lockdown. In just about every country across the world, there has been a spike in domestic abuse during lockdown. what fucking world is this where such violence is a given?

1) Let's talk about how Alibaba has achieved the holy grail of big data - a holistic view of the consumer - through a plethora of product offerings and investment.

This is their overarching moat. And Amazon's got nothing on them.

2) To the outsider, Alibaba's product range is confusing af. It's all over the place and there seems to be no core competency they are focusing on.

A few divisions - Taobao (B2C marketplace), Tmall (High-end B2C marketplace), Alibaba (B2B marketplace, Cainiu(logistics)..

3) ...Elema (Food delivery), Autonavi (maps), Youku (streaming) and Feizhu(travel booking)

Also the promotional strategy is weird, In the lead-up to singles day, half the time they were promoting some cat rearing in-app mini game.

Wtf?

4) When we view Alibaba's strategy as working to create a full view of a consumer's life, including their preferences, social network and spending capacity (and ability). Then everything starts to make sense.

4) Whether a consumer buys on Tmall or Taobao tells Ali about their preferences and budget, delivery address for packages and food lets Ali know where they live and where they work (also cross-referenced with property data to infer wealth level + occupation).

MUST READ TILL END:
FB POST BY MR PRABEER BASU,
IAS-1976(BIHAR)
" Received a hurtful post from an old friend and colleague. He was on my daily Broadcast list of WhatsApp. He requested that I do not send him any of my posts on 'political' issues. I gave him a long explaination
>2

2/29
on why I write and what I write. But he was not convinced.

Being alerted by him thus, I felt I should clarify to all who read my posts on what exactly I think and do.

The charge against me is that I wrongly support our current Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi..
>3

3/29
and that it establishes I am not rational and impartial anymore.
Let me try and explain.First and foremost,I do not write on 'political' issues. I write on 'national' issues. For example, I have no opinion on whether Rahul Gandhi should be President of his party or not.
>4

4/29

Similarly, I have no views whether BJP is a better party than Congress or vice versa.
Even after 36 years in the IAS I have no MLA, MP or anyone involved in politics whom I can classify as my friend or even acquaintance.
>5

5/29
So, naturally I don't care which party wins or loses as long as the winning party runs an honest government doing good to my nation.
Now, why I speak in favour of Shri Modi:

1. Ever since the beginning of my service I realised that Planning Commission was not serving..

>6

1)Absolute proof of voter fraud in Georgia via #ProjectVeritas ...

Here are all the businesses I’ve tried:

(Half of them failed)

👇

Training Spectrum

A website showcasing local sports talent, health and fitness articles and interviews with personal trainers.

Started at 17. Lasted 4-5 months.

Food & Drink

A local website listing restaurants in each city (before Zomato was a thing).

Started at 18. Lasted 6-7 months.

Ambitionaire

An online magazine interviewing entrepreneurs for aspiring entrepreneurs.

Started at 18. Lasted 3 months.

10 Question Poll

A website asking 10 random funny questions and you share your results with friends.

Started at 22. Lasted 3 months.

#WealthOfNations I.ii is all about the secret sauce origin story: why does the division of labor happen in the first place? #AdamSmith illustrates (in part) with doggos to hold our attention. (I.ii.2,5) 🐶 #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #DoggosDontTrade

Divsion of labor, Smith said yesterday, is responsible for a whole heckuva lot. But who thought of it? Nobody! It's "not originally the effect of any human wisdom, which foresees and intends that general opulence to which it gives occasion." (I.ii.1) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

There's no mastermind behind economic exchange, our "propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another" (I.ii.1) arises out of our natural tendency to persuade one another and better our condition. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Yeah, there's a lot in that first paragraph. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

You know what's coming, right? 🍖🍻🍞 Butchers, brewers, bakers: they don't make us things because they love us. They're not our moms. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

This Day in Labor History: January 5, 1914. Henry Ford announced his famous $5 a day wage to his workers. But let's be clear; Ford was a horrible human who treated his workers awful. He's no model and we need to talk about this!

Turnover was a massive problem for employers through the early 20th century. The horrors of industrialization combined with callousness of employers to lead to workers constantly seeking a job that was just a little bit less terrible than the last.

The growth of assembly line work made this worse because it was so boring. Treating a worker like a machine, as Henry Ford did, deskilled and depressed workers who had once partially defined themselves through their physical labor.

This labor was just as physical and exhausting, but required no thinking and provided no satisfaction. Thus the Ford Motor Company had the same turnover problems as other industries. In 1913, the turnover rate for the company was 370 percent.

Ford decided he needed to do something about this turnover. So he began to think about what would become known as welfare capitalism.

I increasingly believe that the only successful approach to productivity is treating yourself like an addict

If you want to stop drinking alcohol, don't keep it in the house 🙅

Here's how I keep myself productive:

1. Clean Out The Cupboards 📱

I use iOS Screen Time to block all social media, news, and yes, EMAIL, from my phone.

I also remove the ability to install new apps.

My wife set the code, so I don't have any easy way to get around it.

2. Add Guiderails 🚆

On my Mac, I have an automation that quits all apps each morning before I get to work and pulls up OmniFocus on the screen, so it's always the first thing I see when I open my computer and can't go down a rabbit trail.

3. Reduce Dopamine Hits 🥱

I use to spend my entire day in my inbox.

As I'd send emails, new ones would stream in constantly, and before I'd know it I'd spent 4-5 hours just responding to emails instead of moving important projects or individual work forward.

I setup @Mailman_HQ, a Gmail plug-in @mohitmamoria and I built, to only deliver email once in the morning and once in the early afternoon, and to automatically batch any emails from anyone I hadn't emailed with before at 7AM...

1. Thread.

In light of tomorrow's congressional session to record the electoral votes, and for conservatives and Republicans who claim to look for guidance to the Founders, a short thread from Federalist #68.

2. "It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any pre-established body...

3. "...but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture...It was also peculiarly desirable to afford as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder...But the precautions which have been so happily concerted...

4. "...in the system under consideration promise an effectual security against this mischief...As the electors, chosen in each state, are to assemble and vote in the state in which they are chosen, this detached and divided situation will expose them much less...

5. "...to heats and ferments, which might be communicated from them to the people, than if they were all to be convened at one time, in one place. Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption...