I’ve thought long and hard about this. There is a constellation of circumstantial evidence around the most recently identified variant P.1, and what has been happening in Manaus, Brazil which makes me very seriously concerned. A thread 🧵

First Manaus has already been very hard hit by the pandemic. News reports in earlier stages told of rushed burials and bodies piling up https://t.co/sMkOwCmzVx
The crucial thing was the rapid rates of transmission, not really mitigated by ‘flattening the curve’ any. total per capita mortality was not as high as might be expected elsewhere, but only because the age structure of the population in Manaus skews young https://t.co/pZ43BPloj3
(I just did the calculation, the numbers of deaths are quite consistent with independent estimates of age stratified IFRs as per https://t.co/FlvXNRuECE)
By October 2020, 76% of the population were estimated to have been infected. This is based on a convenience sample of antibodies found in blood donors. I don’t like convenience samples and the true figure might well be lower, but not a lot lower https://t.co/gJ3nRJ19hL
That’s a large proportion, one might reasonably expect some degree of ‘herd immunity’, achieved at great cost. So given all that immunity, what’s happening in Manaus now? There’s actually an 'eruption' of infections, O2 shortages and escalating deaths https://t.co/8RSmY9MmVy
At the same time, the variant P.1, which I wrote about a couple days ago, has been identified.

https://t.co/M3r8hjlMKh
There’s not great sampling at present from the earlier stages of the pandemic in Manaus, so a lot may have happened evolution wise off camera, but the P.1 lineage is not recorded before November. It was 42% of samples from 15-23rd Dec CAVEAT not large numbers
I often complain that sampling doesn't account for sample size, bias etc. If this where a regular mutant, and somewhere other than Manau, I'd be complaining loudly. As it is I think we need to pay close attention
None of this is good but what does it mean? Well first Manaus shows what a ‘herd immunity’ strategy looks like in the absence of a vaccine: a huge amount of illness and death, a significant amount among those who cannot be callously written off as having 'comorbidities'
The factors favoring the emergence of P.1 in Brazil are not clear. If it’s like similar variants it may well be more transmissible. But is that enough in a place where you’d expect existing immunity to act as a brake? I don't know right now
We should be watching P.1 very closely indeed for data on both immune escape, and a different spectrum of severity from what we’re used to. I really hope this turns out to be a data artefact of some kind but worried it won’t. And the virus travels well
Especially when you close the stable door after... sigh

/end

More from World

Niger state shares borders with Zamfara, kebbi, Kaduna & Benin Republic. Terrorists from Niger republic and Burkina faso easily move money and arms across the borders of Kebbi, Zamfara and Benin R into Niger state. According to UN over 900,000 people have been displaced in B'Faso https://t.co/65YEMJhqDp


Niger, Mali and Burkina faso are weak countries populated by Shell terrorists who have now found a safe haven in the forests in Kaduna and Niger state. Birin Gwari, Mokwa forest, Nanati forests, Kanji lake areas.

No decent human resides permanently in forests.

We are facing both external and internal threats from these weak and failed countries we are surrounded with. As a senator you know that a FG police system with less than 300k officers can't actively police the landmass and borders in the North.
Form your state police now!

You and other senators should scrap the FG police system and devote the unaudited security votes and constituency allowance to policing your corridors and forests. Let the airforce bomb them and put your rangers in the forests. Issue an ultimatum for those in the forests to leave

You are all living in a dream if you think the current police structure will become efficient overnight.
Budget, Personnel, Technology, Equipment, Surveillance..It's impossible.
Form your state and community police and flush out the terrorists.

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॥ॐ॥
अस्य श्री गायत्री ध्यान श्लोक:
(gAyatri dhyAna shlOka)
• This shloka to meditate personified form of वेदमाता गायत्री was given by Bhagwaan Brahma to Sage yAgnavalkya (याज्ञवल्क्य).

• 14th shloka of गायत्री कवचम् which is taken from वशिष्ठ संहिता, goes as follows..


• मुक्ता-विद्रुम-हेम-नील धवलच्छायैर्मुखस्त्रीक्षणै:।
muktA vidruma hEma nIla dhavalachhAyaiH mukhaistrlkShaNaiH.

• युक्तामिन्दुकला-निबद्धमुकुटां तत्वार्थवर्णात्मिकाम्॥
yuktAmindukalA nibaddha makutAm tatvArtha varNAtmikam.

• गायत्रीं वरदाभयाङ्कुश कशां शुभ्रं कपालं गदाम्।
gAyatrIm vardAbhayANkusha kashAm shubhram kapAlam gadAm.

• शंखं चक्रमथारविन्दयुगलं हस्तैर्वहन्ती भजै॥
shankham chakramathArvinda yugalam hastairvahantIm bhajE.

This shloka describes the form of वेदमाता गायत्री.

• It says, "She has five faces which shine with the colours of a Pearl 'मुक्ता', Coral 'विद्रुम', Gold 'हेम्', Sapphire 'नील्', & a Diamond 'धवलम्'.

• These five faces are symbolic of the five primordial elements called पञ्चमहाभूत:' which makes up the entire existence.

• These are the elements of SPACE, FIRE, WIND, EARTH & WATER.

• All these five faces shine with three eyes 'त्रिक्षणै:'.