I’ve thought long and hard about this. There is a constellation of circumstantial evidence around the most recently identified variant P.1, and what has been happening in Manaus, Brazil which makes me very seriously concerned. A thread 🧵

Bravery

6 May 17, I was privileged to fly on the last chopper that brought back the released Chibok girls. Seeing the girls - young, naive BUT broken, was a reminder of how cruel man is. When we touched down, I stayed with them briefly in the C-130 before the Abuja lap.

Military medics began basic checks, deworming them and tending their wounds. There was one particular girl who had lost a leg. She said the Air Force had hit BHT positions & during the strike she lost a leg. I stared at her, wishing it was a dream.

Sitting beside her was another girl - the bravest girl I ever met. For the purpose of this thread, let us call her 'N'. N kept a daily journal of what happened everyday at the BH camp. I snapped as many pages as I could. The girls attested that she was the leader of the pack.

Right under Boko Haram's nose, every night, after the terrorists had ordered them for 'lights out', she would organise the girls for prayers & morning devotion the next day. I found myself smiling sheepishly at this. This is faith. This is bravery.

When the medics were done & we were notified that the C-130 would depart for Abuja, N made a signal & all the girls sat up, crossed their legs & bend their heads. N led them in prayers. I would later learn that this was their routine when there was danger or the bombs dropped.

#NEIOH

1. Beloved Ones!

We Have Important Matters To Discuss With You!  If You Believe This Is A Joke, You Should Leave Now. We Do Not Joke When It Comes To This Planet. AKATU Will Lighten Things To Cheer You. What We Share Now Will Inform You.

/thread/ It has been almost 2 months since the end of the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and after observing it from the start and talking about it with (or listening to) some really smart people, here are IMO important lessons (new or old) from that conflict:

1. Even in smaller conflicts, U(C)AVs are making achieving air superiority, or at least denying it to the opponent, a lot more important than it used to be.

2. Effective distribution of real-time data from U(C)AVs (and loitering munitions, which can be launched to perform recon when other assets are not available) can significantly increase the effectiveness of even relatively old artillery systems.

3. While airpower is getting incredibly deadly and can quickly inflict massive material damage, you still need units on the ground with a strong will to fight despite taking casualties (and political will to accept that in serious modern wars, significant losses are inevitable).

4. Soldiers need to be aware that on a modern battlefield there are not really any "safe areas" and TTPs (tactics techniques procedures) need to be changed to reflect this.

A lot has been written about what Mario Draghi's arrival in Italy means for Italy. But little has been said about what he could mean for Europe. I think Draghi could be a game changer for EU; he could even turn its toxic North-South dynamic on its head. Thread 1/

Why? The @EU_Commission is currently reviewing (quietly) member states reform plans. These are basis upon which EU capitals hope to begin receiving their allocation, in transfers & loans, from the €750 billion Recovery Fund, starting later this year 2/

Remember the numbers are unprecedented. Italy is eligible for ~€188bn (roughly €65.5bn in grants; €123bn in loans). Spain a €144bn, roughly €59bn in grants & €85bn in loans etc etc. The amounts for all member states are unprecedented 3/

Yet despite this, & fact Fr & Ger pushed hard for this deal, officials in Bxl are scathing about proposals advanced by.. Paris & Berlin. I oversimplify: but basically, Macron is distracted by Covid; Merkel, elections in Sept. Sweeping reforms are the last thing on their minds 4/

This puts Commission in its usual bind. If Bxl doesn’t raise the reform bar with Chancellery & @Elysee, it will have no credibility to push southern Europe to do same. But it also can’t impose reforms on countries that aren’t willing to do them, especially not the big 2 5/

Happening now: President Cyril Ramaphosa has taken to the podium to deliver the #SONA2021 before a hybrid sitting.

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa briefly commemorates the release of the late former president Nelson Mandela from the Victor Verster Prison in Cape Town in 1990.

'It was clear that freedom was tangible.'

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa likens the country's resilience to that of the fynboos.

"We have risen time and time again from the depths of darkness to herald a new day."

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa hails the efforts of front liners and essential workers amid the raging coronavirus pandemic. We have made mistakes but we have also stood together.

"It is a story of solidarity and compassion."

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa: This year is about change, progress and rebirth.