It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.
A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.
The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable
How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements
/THREAD/
It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.
A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.
And next week, the stock craters.
Every time the prediction comes true.
That sounds like a great deal, right?
It is incredibly unlikely that a complete buffoon with no special knowledge would have gotten 10 correct stock predictions in a row.
For a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong, and 10 picks, the calculation is (1/2) in the power of 10.
This comes down to 1/1024, less than 0.1%.
But things look different from the stockbroker's side.
He sent out 10,240, half with the prediction the stock will rise and half with the opposite prediction.
The 5,120 who received the incorrect prediction never heard from him again.
The recipients that got the correct prediction, receive another newsletter.
Half the recipients get the "correct" prediction and half of them the "incorrect".
Ten people who think the stockbroker from Baltimore is an investing genius.
Ten people from whom he expects to collect hefty fees.
A British magician, Derren Brown, pulled off a similar stunt, mailing various horse-racing picks to thousands of people, eventually convincing one that he had created a foolproof prediction system.
When an investment firm launches a mutual fund, they often maintain it in-house before they open it to the public.
Typically, these firms incubate dozens of funds at the same time, experimenting with different strategies and allocations.
The ones that fail, are thrown into the trash can, and the public never notices they even existed.
Instead, they offer the same mediocre returns as all the other mutual funds in the market.
It means you would be better off resisting the temptation of the hot new funds with the excellent track record and incredible returns over the past couple of years.
Stop looking for the stock magician with the golden touch and put your money in a low-cost index fund and forget about it.
https://t.co/l9sb5X2z2F
Jack Bogle, the Father of Indexing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 8, 2021
How John "Jack" Bogle's creation impacted investors more than Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett combined
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/4wPi8x3cXn
You have been lured by the impressive results, but you don't know how many chances they had to get them.
But they never tell you how many predictions they have made.
/END/
https://t.co/a0k6jzZ6wg
The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 23, 2021
How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/xCRL6CfxBu
https://t.co/6o3A2IQCMs
List of Educational Threads on Financial Independence and Investing for Beginners#FinancialIndependence #financialeducation #financialfreedom #investing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 3, 2021
1/ Financial Freedomhttps://t.co/8j5KG5ioFK
More from Kostas ๐จโ๐ผ ๐ ๐ธ
The Mother of All Squeezes
How Volkswagen went from being on the brink of bankruptcy to the most valuable company in the world in two days
/THREAD/
1/ At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Volkswagen was considered a very likely candidate for bankruptcy.
Heavily indebted and already financially struggling before 2008, with car sales expected to plummet due to the ongoing global crisis.
2/ With GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy in 2009, shorting the VW stock would seem a safe bet.
If you are not familiar with stock shorts and short squeezes check my thread
3/ On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced it had increased its stake at VW from 30% to 74%.
This was a surprise to many who were led to believe that Porsche wasn't planning a takeover of VW, based on the company's announcements.
4/ Before the announcement, the short interest was approximately 13% of the outstanding shares, a number considered relatively low.
Porsche had a 30% stake, the Lower Saxony government fund held 20% of the shares, and another 5% was held by index funds.
How Volkswagen went from being on the brink of bankruptcy to the most valuable company in the world in two days
/THREAD/
1/ At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Volkswagen was considered a very likely candidate for bankruptcy.
Heavily indebted and already financially struggling before 2008, with car sales expected to plummet due to the ongoing global crisis.
2/ With GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy in 2009, shorting the VW stock would seem a safe bet.
If you are not familiar with stock shorts and short squeezes check my thread
Shorts, Squeezes, and Betting Against Stocks
— Kostas on FIRE \U0001f525 (@itsKostasOnFIRE) January 27, 2021
What is short selling, how is it used and why is it risky?
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/PyDd208hFe
3/ On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced it had increased its stake at VW from 30% to 74%.
This was a surprise to many who were led to believe that Porsche wasn't planning a takeover of VW, based on the company's announcements.
4/ Before the announcement, the short interest was approximately 13% of the outstanding shares, a number considered relatively low.
Porsche had a 30% stake, the Lower Saxony government fund held 20% of the shares, and another 5% was held by index funds.
More from Trading
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Declan Ganleyโs Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearรณid Murphy, Mick OโKeeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isnโt appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Be aware, the images the #farright are sharing in the hopes of starting a race war, are not of the SPAR employee that was punched. They\u2019re older photos of a Everton fan. Be aware of the information you\u2019re sharing and that it may be false. Always #factcheck #GeorgeNkencho pic.twitter.com/4c9w4CMk5h
— antifa.drone (@antifa_drone) December 31, 2020
Declan Ganleyโs Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearรณid Murphy, Mick OโKeeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
There is a concerted effort in far-right Telegram groups to try and incite violence on street by targetting people for racist online abuse following the killing of George Nkencho
— Mark Malone (@soundmigration) January 1, 2021
This follows on and is part of a misinformation campaign to polarise communities at this time.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isnโt appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
๐ก๐ถ๐ณ๐๐-๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ๐ป๐ถ๐ณ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
๐งต A Thread ๐งต
๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฝ:
๐ธ Monthly Option Buying
๐ธ 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
๐ธ Supertrend 10 , 3
๐ธ Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
๐ธ Entry 9:20 to 3:00
๐ธ Max 3 Entries per day
๐ธ Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
๐ธ Less theta decay compared to weekly options
๐ธ Less Volatility
๐ธ Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
๐ธ Indicator Link
๐ธ Click on the below ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ท๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ด -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ต from favourites and start using it !
๐ธ https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ :
๐ธ Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
๐ธ Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
๐ธ Supertrend : 10,3
๐ธ Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
๐งต A Thread ๐งต
๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฝ:
๐ธ Monthly Option Buying
๐ธ 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
๐ธ Supertrend 10 , 3
๐ธ Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
๐ธ Entry 9:20 to 3:00
๐ธ Max 3 Entries per day
๐ธ Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
๐ธ Less theta decay compared to weekly options
๐ธ Less Volatility
๐ธ Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
๐ธ Indicator Link
๐ธ Click on the below ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ท๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ด -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ต from favourites and start using it !
๐ธ https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ :
๐ธ Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
๐ธ Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
๐ธ Supertrend : 10,3
๐ธ Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
