BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Are you planning on handing over your money to an algo trading platform?

Maybe you want to subscribe to a strategy or two and make insane returns.

Here's why you shouldn't do it, and save your money instead.

 1/ Maybe you want to have a strategy development company deploy such algorithms on your account with respective brokers.

Or the service itself has strategies that you just subscribe to and authorize your trading account with, and it will automatically trade your money.
2/ When it comes to @Tradetron1 there are a slew of issues.

Let's keep aside the lack of transparency and the total regulatory non-compliance for a moment.

First off, with most of the strategies, the backtests are BOGUS.
3/ Any systematic trader with even a little bit of experience will look at the strategies and tell you which ones are baloney.

Most of them are.

Don't take my word for it. Do your own due diligence.

And, those backtests aren't even for 10+ yrs. Some were done only for months.
4/ Secondly, SEBI has put rules in place on parameters like

- minimum net worth of the company
- qualifications of the fund manager
- minimum number of clients
- minimum amount to start with

and so on, for qualifying people who want to manage other people's money.
5/ There are only 3 structures offered by SEBI where people can manage other people's money.

- Mutual Funds
- Portfolio Management Service (PMS)
- Alternative Investment Funds (AIF)
6/ If the company/person you hand over money to don't have one of these licenses, you're essentially stepping into the grey area.

There's no LEGAL way to manage other people's money outside of these three structures offered by SEBI.
7/ There are few other ways in which you can manage other people's money.

Most popular one:

- Become a sub broker to a large broker
- Get terminal access
- Add clients
- Place trades for all your clients together
8/ In this method, you can open/close/modify orders in clients' accounts. You can't touch their funds.

To do this, you should

- Enter into an agreement with the client that you will be investing/trading their account
- Have an Associated Persons SEBI license
9/ You should also take client's approval for EVERY SINGLE TRADE YOU PUT ON and for EVERY SINGLE TRADE YOU CLOSE.

Even if you don't take permission for one trade also, that's considered fraud.

But that's how most people operate.
10/ Some get clients to automate email approval for each trade.

This is not entirely legal and won't be valid if push comes to stove.

Phone call recording + non-automated emails should be legal.

But nobody does that.
11/ Essentially, since nobody follows the letter of the law/SEBI, they are all taking unauthorized trades as every trade requires authorization.

This again, is the most popular way with which people who have capital of < 25c operate.
12/ Also, when you're a MF, PMS, AIF, there are so many things you CAN and CAN'T do.

There are things you should do regularly in terms of reporting.

You will definitely need a well-qualified compliance officer also.

Small guys aren't ready to invest in all this overhead.
13/ What can small guys do LEGALLY then?

RIA - Registered Investment Advisor.

It's usually a fixed fee format (although there are some who get a % profit based on agreement).

You take the trades on your own.

Usually does well for long term investing & positional trading.
14/ But, even RIA has a lot of regulations, you need to get the certification and proper licensing done.

There are certain limitations as to what an RIA can and can not do.

So many RIAs breach those rules too and act in a grey area.
15/ Now, coming to Tradetron and similar services, ask these questions:

i) Are their strategy creators SEBI registered?
ii) Is the company's entire modus operandi legal?
iii) How are their backtests vetted?
iv) Are the backtests vetted and verified or anyone can post anything?
16/ Ask these additional questions too.

i) What are the underlying technical issues people face? (Lots of people have faced execution issues, slippages, etc.)

ii) How are the backtests conducted? (full test, out of sample, walk forward, and then monte-carlo, etc., is required)
17/ You'll most likely draw a blank from all of them.

For some reason (valid one) I can't see a SEBI registration number on the websites of TradeTron or similar services.

One step further, Tradetron buries this information in their "terms of use" page.
18/ The screenshot above says you have to do your own due diligence on whether the person creating the strategy is SEBI registered or not.

For ex: Is @__paperstreet__ SEBI registered? Nobody knows. Nobody even knows who he is. But so many people are subscribed to his strategy.
19/ Also, if you don't do your due diligence and your money is blown up by someone who isn't SEBI registered, you can't seek any relief from TradeTron.

Refer to the screenshot below.
20/ They wash their hands of any and all responsibility to

i) Screening strategy creators
ii) Screening backtest legitimacy
iii) Screening strategy legitimacy
iv) Making sure creators are SEBI registered and licensed, and that their license/regn hasn't expired.
21/ Now, let's come to the problems with many of those strategies.

Most of the strategies are half baked. Looks like people testing something on stockmock for a year or two and creating that as strategy on tradetron to make money.
22/ Check this thread for a discussion on the most basic thing.

https://t.co/Z7XJDKF0ep

100% ROI in a year with 10-20% drawdown is possible. But not over a period of 10 years.

Cherry picking a good year and posting that as entire backtest result is dangerous.
23/ Tradetron does indulge in favoritism towards few creators, some shady practices, which if you talk to all the strategy subscribers, you'd begin to understand.

https://t.co/nzxW0buQB8

You can see that they have deleted the -ve comments in some strategies.
24/ But, they withhold the right to do that. This again, is buried in "terms of use".

Also, if you face huge slippages and execution issues at their end, they can always wash their hands off any responsibility by saying it's an internet/server issue, and show you these terms.
25/ Now, several users have quoted the following in their reviews/comments.

- Grossly misleading backtests
- Backtest / live trades huge discrepancies
- Some accounts blown out
- Backtests done only for few months
- Huge slippage and execution delays
- Loss due to outages
26/ This is not just particular to tradetron.

You pick any similar service. You check for the following things.

- SEBI/legal registration/compliance of the company
- SEBI registration of strategy creators
- Backtest methodology
- No of years tested for
27/ Also check for the following:

- Backtest / Actual live trades differentiation
- How many years backtest was conducted for
- How long the strategy has been active, and what its actual live returns are (after costs)
- Whether backtests are pre/post comms/spread/slippages
28/ This applies to any and all companies offering to manage your money in some way without your intervention or active effort.

Use this as a checklist and protect your downside first by doing your due diligence.
29/ Secondly, don't be naive enough to believe that you can double your money in a year or two, or that these strategy creators with backtests showing CAGR of 40-50% will get you such returns.

More often these claims are only a bag of farts. You'll be left holding just those.
30/ Third, most often, you'll put money in the hands of such people whose greed knows no bounds, blow up your capital, and realize you'd have done way better had you invested in a regular conservative mutual fund also.

So, save yourself all the trouble and go SIP in MFs.
31/ Two or maximum three mutual fund schemes, with an index fund, invested regularly with discipline using SIP, will create more wealth than any of these fake strategy creators can, for you.
32/ If you must definitely go for such high returns, it's not impossible.

Spend a year or two, learn python, backtest different ideas/systems yourself, and automate them.

Amazon EC2 or Azure + Broker's API, code in python and automate your strategies.
33/ Books, Links, Courses, Data - recommended for doing exactly the above is all in this link -

https://t.co/OoHznZbfTI
34/ I have summarized whatever I know about systematic trading in the following webinar.

Ignore the first and last 20-25 mins (about me in the intro, and about my course and the QNA in the outro) and watch the remaining 3 hours, for a head start.

https://t.co/NjMM50AOE4
35/ To conclude, don't chase quick returns.

You're better off putting money in an index fund and compounding/getting rich slowly.

Don't fall prey to someone else's greed, and lose your money due to your own greed.
36/ Also, remember one thing finally.

With these untested, half-baked platforms, you're being treated like beta testers when their service itself is not proper or reliable.

They should pay you, and not the other way around.

Skip them altogether, save your hard earned money.

More from Shravan Venkataraman ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’ฐ

Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman ๐Ÿ”ฅ...
@theBuoyantMan
50 rookie mistakes to avoid as a stock market beginner - a thread.

1. Watching CNBC and acting on the recommendations provided by the "analysts", "experts" and "fund managers" who appear on TV.

Remember, most of them don't even beat the benchmark index on an annual basis.

2. Giving too much importance to Moneycontrol articles and recommendations. Moneycontrol profits off of noobs. They depend on you to make their money. They get paid by buy side firms who want to dump their positions, and sell side firms whose clients want to sell.

They also get paid to propagate rumours (albeit subtly) about stocks that the buy-side firms want to buy (albeit at lower prices) and sell-side firm clients want to buy. So, if you see a recommendation on moneycontrol, that marks the distribution phase (most of the times).

3. Listening to colleagues, friends, and family on what to invest on, where to invest, what stocks to buy. Usually these are also people who have no real expertise, but started a year or few months ahead of you. They only talk about their winners, you get very excited.

4. Listening to social media "experts". People on Twitter, Youtube, etc., even if they look like they are trading crores, or managing hundreds of crores, have different reasons for trading/investing in something. Typically, following them is the path to the butcher's shop.
TRADING
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f3a1
Shravan Venkataraman ๐ŸŽก...
@theBuoyantMan
Interpretation of Financial Statements - preliminary filters.

1. Looking for sustainable competitive advantage:

When looking for sustainable moat, you wanna see consistency - in earnings, in having low debt, in having growing earnings, low spending in capital expenditures, etc.

The longer the company has existed, and if it sells you the same product for years (like Coca Cola), it reduces production costs and other costs (R&D, Training, marketing) slowly as the company ages.

When costs are reduced, margins and profits increase.

2. What to look for in an income statement:

Let's take a look at Apple:

i) You want to see earnings grow at a steady pace. Take a look at the net income below.


ii) Another thing that's important is a consistent and high gross margin.

As a thumb rule, Warren Buffett wants to see a gross margin of around 40% or above.

Although not quite 40%, it's around that range with respect to Apple.


Compare this to Apple's competitors.

Samsung's gross margins are around similar range, highest being 45.7% in 2018, and Huawei had a gross margin of 38.6%.
ECONOMY
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Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman ๐Ÿ”ฅ...
@theBuoyantMan
In 2011, a blackjack player made $20 million over 4 months,

and ended up bringing some of the topmost casinos to their knees.

Here's the crazy story of how he pulled it off.

๐Ÿงต

Don Johnson grew up taking care of his uncleโ€™s racehorses in Salem, Oregon.

After taking interest in them, he began riding them competitively at age 15.

He then became a professional jockey.

As a jockey, he had to stay on a strict routine and take medications to keep his natural weight off and remain slim.

Eventually he couldn't keep up the routine.

So, he quit the job, and went to Philadelphia to manage racetracks.

Johnson was hired to manage the Philadelphia Park.

That race track evolved into the Parx Casino, in Bensalem.

Johnson was in charge of day-to-day operations, including the betting operation.

That's where he started learning about gambling.

Between 1990 and 2010, Johnsonโ€™s career has moved from managing racetracks to being a state regulator in the gambling industry.

Around 2000, he started a business that does computer-assisted wagering on horses.
LIFE STORIES
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman ๐Ÿ”ฅ...
@theBuoyantMan
Breakout-retest-breakout

this pattern is among the high probability setups one can trade.

60-70% of breakouts fail.

If the breakout sustains the reversal pressure and manages to break above the breakout candle high,

there will be travel.

You can then take the trade in either of the two places.

1) When price is pulling back to the point of breakout - take trade at the breakout point.

If it closes inside the pre-breakout zone, get out.

2) When price pulls back, then breaks out of breakout candle high.

(1) is lower probability than (2) but higher probability than just taking the trade when price breaks out first.

It also comes with lower risk.

(2) is the highest probability trade (probably with relatively higher risk).

That said

If the breakout is from a multi-week or multi-month compression zone

do not expect pullbacks to happen immediately.

If they do happen, more often than not, it's a breakout failure.
SCREENERS
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman ๐Ÿ”ฅ...
@theBuoyantMan
When you break down the lives of extremely successful people, you find that their success didn't come from an earth shattering break-through.

Rather, it came from obsessing about a simple idea, fanatically.

Time for a thread about one such idea. ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡

1/ During world war II, a eleven year old kid checks out a book from the nearest library. The book's title was "1000 ways to make 1000 dollars".

After he reads that book, he makes a statement that by the time he was 35 years old, he'd be a millionaire.


2/ By the age of 35, his net worth was roughly 7-8 million dollars. The library was Omaha public library. That kid was Warren Buffett.

How he got there is an interesting story.

As soon as he reads that book, he decides he should have 1000 dollars before he finishes school.


3/ While looking for business ideas, he goes to his friend Dan's house one day.

He watches Dan fix an old pinball machine (that he bought for $15) in two hours.

Warren asks him if he can fix more.

Dan says yes.

4/ Warren and Dan set up a company (of course no incorporation and all that legal jazz).

They call the firm "Wilson Coin Operated Company".

They go to local barbers and pitch the barbers an ingenious business plan.
CULTURE

More from Trading

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
TRADING
JayneshKasliwal
JayneshKasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal
๐—ก๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜๐˜†-๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐˜†

Complete Backtest and Indicator link

๐Ÿงต A Thread ๐Ÿงต

๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฝ:
๐Ÿ”ธ Monthly Option Buying
๐Ÿ”ธ 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
๐Ÿ”ธ Supertrend 10 , 3
๐Ÿ”ธ Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
๐Ÿ”ธ Entry 9:20 to 3:00
๐Ÿ”ธ Max 3 Entries per day
๐Ÿ”ธ Premium nearest to 200 Rs only

[2/18]

Why Monthly Option buying ?
๐Ÿ”ธ Less theta decay compared to weekly options
๐Ÿ”ธ Less Volatility
๐Ÿ”ธ Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]


๐Ÿ”ธ Indicator Link
๐Ÿ”ธ Click on the below ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ -> ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ด -> ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜Š๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต from favourites and start using it !

๐Ÿ”ธ https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]

๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐˜€ :
๐Ÿ”ธ Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
๐Ÿ”ธ Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
๐Ÿ”ธ Supertrend : 10,3
๐Ÿ”ธ Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
ALL , TRADING , A OPTION BUYING INDICATOR
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Peter McCormack \U0001f451
Peter McCormack ๐Ÿ‘‘...
@PeterMcCormack
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...

Yesterday was brutal for some people...

Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.

2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.

https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0

tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it

2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.

3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.

If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.

4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information

And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.

5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?

I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

๐Ÿงต Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:


To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)


1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

โ€ข Weekly charts.
โ€ข Daily charts.
โ€ข Hourly / 60 min charts.
โ€ข 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

โ€ข The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

โ€ข This week my view is that it can take a pause.

โ€ข Longer term trend is super bullish.

โ€ข Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.


2. Daily:

โ€ข Candlestick patternโ€”Hanging Man

โ€ข Chart Patternโ€”Breakout Failure

โ€ข A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

โ€ข Here it forms near the top of upmove.

โ€ข Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.
TRADING
Investment Books
Investment Books
@InvestmentBook1
Knowledge sharing initiative Book 3: "Zurich Axioms" by Max Gunther

The book crystallizes how to think about taking investment bets (position sizing), and how to reduce risks in investing & speculation. It focuses on teaching a balance between rewards & risks.

(1/n)


Here are the key takeaways from the book:

1. Take sizeable bets in life: Taking small bets will give you a good night's sleep as you have very little to lose, but the important point is "it won't ever make you rich".

(2/n)

2. Taking size-able risk is necessary to get rich but make sure you don't go bankrupt taking that risk.

3. Don't diversify too much as gains & losses will nullify each other.

(3/n)

4. Be less greedy to make money - Book some profits when you see a sudden huge increase in wealth - fear of regret will stop you from booking profits but don't be greedy as consistent streaks of lucks are rare in life.

(4/n)

5. Cut losses when you go wrong don't start praying that your losses will recover rather act quickly take some loss and sell out.

(5/n)
TRADING

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Today we will talk about a very prominent and noticeable Mark on the foreheads of #Hindus called 'Tilak'. Tilaks are of different designs and colors. It symbolizes different meanings for different people such as religious expression, spiritual symbol, marital status etc.


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This chakra is the sixth & most important chakra of the human body. It's the junction where the highest number of neurons meet & is described as most important and sensitive spot in the human body.Different #Hindu traditions use different shapes and ingredients to make the Tilak.


SPIRITUAL SIGNIFICANCE

Various Hindu Scriptures mention the importance of Tilak in Sanatan Dharma. It is believed that energy, strength and divinity comes to those who apply Tilak. It is also regarded as a welcoming expression and to honour the guests when they arrive.
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@CarolForden
1. The major problem most startups face is marketing and the ability to carve out a niche, find and retain paying customers.

Even with a stellar developer team and a stellar product, your startup may not grow or survive without a great marketing and sales teams.

2. Start growing your audience before youโ€™ve a product or an idea.

You should start promoting yourself and building your audience before you have a finished product or even before you have a great idea that you want to build.

3. Donโ€™t wait to start building your audience after youโ€™ve launched a product.

Most first-time developers actually ignore marketing.

Theyโ€™re oblivious to the challenge of attracting people to take a look at something theyโ€™ve created.

4. At least until they see their first project crash and burn within hours of the launch.

There are so many times that I have seen developers spend countless hours building something, releasing it with no fanfare...

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1 of 16: WE ARE ALL JEWS HERE: THE STORY OF RODDIE EDMONDS

One of the most moving and relevant stories of the Battle of the Bulge, or any American Soldier in any war, is that of Master Sergeant Roddie Edmonds, a Knoxville, Tennessee native, who served with the 106th Infantry.


2 of 16:

Roddie was captured early on in the Battle of the Bulge, on December 19th, when Panzer forces plowed through his unit.

He, along with almost his entire regiment, was forced to surrender.


3 of 16:

The men were transported to the Stalag IX-A POW camp in Ziegenhain, Germany.

Roddie was the senior enlisted American Soldier at the site. As such, he was the conduit between all American Soldiers and their German captors.


4 of 16:

In late January, the campโ€™s commandant, Major Siegmann [pictured here], ordered Roddie, a Christian, to identify all Jewish Soldiers and order them to stand in formation by themselves the next day.

[Jewish Soldiers were a minority within American units]


5 of 16:

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In fact, Jewish Soldiers had been told to bury their dog tags before capture. The dog tag identified Jews with the letter โ€œHโ€ for Hebrew.
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Rani Chennamma of Kittur was one of the first women rulers of India who fought against the might of the British Empire in 1824. Rani Chennamma was born in 1778 in a small village of Kakati in Belgaon distt of the State of Karnataka.


She was born into the Lingayat Community to a man named Dhulappa Desai. From a very young age she was trained in horse riding,sword fighting, archery and diplomacy. At a very young age of 15 yrs, she was married to the King of Kittur and became the Queen of Kittur.


It is said that King of Kittur Mallasarja was once moving around in the neighbouring kingdoms to find support to fight Tipu Sultan. It is then, when he came across Chennamma and he immediately got attracted to her sheer confidence and bravery.

Rani Chennamma and King Mallasarja had a son together who died very soon after the death of King Mallasarja in 1816. As the Queen of Kittur, Rani Chennamma immediately adopted Shivalingappa as her son and declared him the heir to the throne of Kittur.

This did not go well with the British East India Company who was enforcing the Doctrine of Lapse those days, according to which the adopted children of the Indian rulers were not allowed to become their heirs and if the native rulers did not have children of their own, their...
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Nyck de Vries
@nyckdevries
Lately there have been various rumours in the media about myself and Jumbo in relation to Williams. To clarify things, Jumbo is not and will not invest any money in my career. 1/2

Of course weโ€™re collectively looking at career opportunities, however this is certainly not our philosophy and strategy. I hope to announce my future plans soon, be patient ๐Ÿ˜‰ 2/2
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