Life is a continuous journey of going through peaks and troughs of Happiness and struggle.

We can only see the Happy part of other lives, but ignore what they might have gone through to achieve that.

How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,

You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.

If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet

How to use Moving averages like a Pro.👇

https://t.co/7VbuGovmee

Like humans , stocks too have different nature and if you are trading every stock the same way then this thread may be for you.

A thread on Nature of stocks and how it can help you to improve your trading results.

First start with what is the nature of stocks ?

I broadly categorize stocks in two categories-

1. The momentum stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the moves are swift in nature, or we can say that the pullbacks in a trend are smaller.

2. The AKBC stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the trending moves comes with deep pullbacks.

Examples-

So the purpose of categorizing these stocks, is that we Trade those stocks/instruments which are more suited to our style.

Say if you are a mean reversion player and you are trading in the momentum stocks category then you are more bound to lose over large number of trades.

Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-

What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.

How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.

One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his

level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,

Richard dennis made "$80 Million " in 1986. That kind of money making put him squarely at the center of Wall Street .

How Richard dennis became one of the greatest trend follower of all time.

Thread-👇👇👇

1. Personality-

Though he made big profits in the year of 1986, but Profits and risk comes hand in hand.

He was down $10 million in a single day that year before bouncing back, a rollercoaster ride that would have made mere mortals lose serious sleep.

Yet Dennis cockily said that he slept like a baby during all that volatility.

His money making style was to go for the home runs and swing for the fences,But dennis was never a gambler.

Dennis was believer of the Empiricism philosophy.

Empiricism is rooted in the notion that knowledge is derived from experiment, observation, and experience

2. Family-

Dennis family was not of market operators. Dennis was always honest about his father’s “hatred” of the market, explaining,

“My grandfather had lost all his money in the stock market in the Depression. The urge to speculate kind of skipped a generation.”

How to get rich trading (without getting lucky)

Complete beginner’s guide to wealth of Rs 10 Cr in 10 years

Step 1: start trading live

1/n

Nothing can substitute experience of live trading

No amount of back-test, studies or indicators can substitute training your mind with screen time

As a beginner, In live trading, you will make losses almost everyday

2/n

So here are the conditions which you can’t violate in first year
If you can’t follow these rules, this document is not for you

Start with trading capital of Rs 1 lakhs

Max loss per trade 0.25%, i.e. 250 Rs

Max loss for the day, 1%, i.e. Rs 1000

Max 6 trades in a day

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I know, these conditions will cripple you in terms of what all you can trade and how

But just like any start up, trading is also about making it through initial gruelling constraints of life

You will also learn, how to turn these adverse rules to your advantage

4/n

Btw, you can sell directional banknifty options, obviously you can buy options, can do cash stock trading and much more under these conditions

Think about it, you will be do all kinds of instruments, just that PNL will not be roller coaster ride or exciting like a casino

5/n

A THREAD ON SL, TSL AND RE-ENTRIES-

WHERE TO PUT THE SL-

1. NEAREST PIVOT/SWING POINTS-

Normally I use this method for placing sl, In this method we use swing point for placing the SL.

As normally the stock would not try to go below previous swing point if it is to go in our direction.

2. ATR method-

Sometimes the Stock do not have any nearest pivot at time of buy, So we use this method as it gives us a level on basis of current volatility of the stock.

I use 1.5 ATR away sl , say the ATR at point of entry is 30, so I place sl
1.5 X, or 45 rs away from entry

In below example the entry is 120, ATR=5, SL= 1.5X ATR= 7.5 OR 113.

Nearest pivot was too far away, that’s why this method is used in these cases.

4. Anchor candles-

Anchor bars are those which have extreme Volume, gaps or wide Ranges.

Here, we place our sl below those candles which has the above characteristics.

I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻

Why?

Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.

Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n

But first, do you know the definition of a bear market?

When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻

How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.

2/n

🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)

Number of Bear Markets = 8

Average drawdown % = -38.5%

Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)

Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom

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1997 and 2006 saw the fastest bear markets with Nifty correcting 20-30% in just ~1 month.

Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!

Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.

4/n

Okay, how should we define Bear Market Recovery?

The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.

Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.

Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.

Avg recovery duration – 495 days

5/n

30 books I wish I read before Investing my hard-earned money:

1. You can be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt
2. Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits by Phil Fisher
3. Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman
4. The Crowd by Gustave Le Bon
5. Winning the Loser's Game by Charles Ellis

6. The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther
7. The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks
8. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
9. The Intelligent Investor by B. Graham
10. A Zebra in Lion country by Ralph Wanger and Everett Mattlin
11. Learn to Earn by Peter Lynch

12.Poor Charlie's Almanack - The wit and wisdom of Charles T Munger
13.Speculative Contagion by Frank Martin
14. The Long and the Short of it by John Kay
15. More than you know by Michael Maubossin
16. Influence - The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini

17. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision making by Scott Plous
18. The Real Warren Buffett by James O'Loughlin
19. Devil take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor
20. Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans
21. The Emotionally Intelligent Investor by Ravee Mehta

22.Accounting for Value by Stephen Penman
23. Common Stocks and Common Sense by Edgar Wachenheim III
24. Big Money Thinks Small by Joel Tillinghast
25. Memos from the Chairman by Alan C Greenberg