1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
- Ethereum (minimal)
- XRP (Arrington Capital, oops)
- Link (lol)
- Dentacoin (err)
But Bitcoin - MicroStrategy, Square, Ruffers, MassMutual...
There is a wall of money coming, and it isn't going into XRP... another easy signal, these people don't want to sell their #bitcoin, why? @bgarlinghouse can't wait to unload his shitcoin on you, why?
- Tezos foundation
- Block One (remember EOS?)
- I suspect Roger Ver still holds a load
- Even rogue states
- Only crypto which is meaningfully decentralised
- Regulatory moat established
- Genuine censorship resistance
- Fixed cap
- Predictable issuance
It is the best and hardest fucking money that has ever existed. You can argue against this but you are wrong.
- Detractors turn to bulls
- Maxi narratives are proved right
- Price sets new all-time highs
- Security increases
- Governments print more useless fiat
- Argued against narratives
- Tried to fix Bitcoin (I was new and knew better)
- wAs oPeN MiNdEd
- Watched by BTC stack dwindle away
21 million divided by your sat stack = your score.
$ value is volatile but your score is the amount of the new financial paradigm you own.
Stack your sats (h/t @matt_odell)
Stop playing short-term games, zoom that shit out, if you can't handle the drops you are over-leveraged.
Bitcoin is economics 101 - supply and demand. We're talking about hard money, people who get #Bitcoin stay, they rarely sell...
Yeah, you're going to out trade the market, sure you are. Some will, most won't.
My edge is podcasting, so I make shows, sell adds, make a profit and buy #bitcoin. What is your edge?
1. Earn money
2. Buy #Bitcoin
3. Be patient
I know what some of you are thinking, but what if #bitcoin fails? Have you not seen the shit it has survived? Silk Road, Mt. Gox, civil wars.
It is still here and stronger than ever.
Look, 2018 sucked, going from paper millionaire to broke was a motherfucker, but tears won't bring back the money.
...at the end of every month, I will have more sats than the end of the last month.
Then with a little patience, I trust #bitcoin to do its thing.
...we're not fucking selling because it is heading to $100k.
...we're not selling at $500k because it is heading to $1m.
(Okay, I will definitely sell a little at $1m for a Lambo, bite me - but 0.2btc for a Lambo, sounds good right?)
Inflation punishes the prudent. This isn't right, is it?
If you want to build a solid financial future then you need to build solid foundations. You got this!
More from Trading
(A long thread)
First, let's be clear that negotiating a deal in 9 months, against the odds, and in the middle of a pandemic, is an achievement. It's too easy to underestimate the difficulty of negotiating over the screen for 4 months, from Mar-June, and under enormous pressure. /2
Both @DavidGHFrost & @MichelBarnier and their teams, deserve a lot of credit for sticking up with it in hard circumstances, often with lacking political clarity, & high stakes.
This shouldn't preclude us, or MPs and MEPs, from looking critically at the deal on the table. /3
That we have a deal is a result of the UK & EU having found a way to protect their core defensive interests.
From the EU's view, integrity of the single market is preserved with level-playing field obligations which go virtually beyond any other 3rd-country (even the Swiss). /4
For its part, the UK has negotiated down EU ask on dynamic alignment on state aid; eliminated any references to EU law; removed any role for the ECJ (NB not in the whole future relationship, due to EU law in NI Protocol); and preserved its right to control access to waters. /5
The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :
-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
-Set up your trades with greater than 50% Probability Of Profit
- Use implied volatility in your decision making process
-Book some trades at 50% of max profit i.e. locking of profit incase u are buyer
-Don’t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
-Diversify your portfolio across product, direction, and time,this has to be considered while you are planning to put in multiple strikes in folio
-Short Strangles are one of our go-to strategies because of their high probability of profit and increased profit potential.A little effort with understanding of volatility would help
-Allocate no more than 5% of your account to any one trade
-Trade small, trade often to increase your number of occurrences. Some might deny but this works
-In options you might have heard of spreads.Multiple options legs create an options spread. For example, a short strangle consists of selling a call and selling a put simultaneously.
// What are trend-lines?
Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.
The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.
// Things To consider while Making trendlines?
• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.
• Trendline can be formed by two ways-
In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.
// Why only connect the wicks?
There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).
So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.
A thread on Trend (Market structure)-
A trend is a path of least resistance, basically the side where the smart money is betting upon.
And our work is to be on their side, to make some money.
Why do we use trend?
In an uptrend, the sum of the rallies will always be greater than the sum of the declines.
In a downtrend, the sum of the declines will always be greater than the sum of the rallies.
How to Find the trend?
There are 3 methods which one can use-
1. Swing points method.
2. Moving averages.
3. Trend lines, channels.
1. Trend identification by using swing points-
• UPTREND in simple words - Higher highs, higher lows
• DOWNTREND in simple words - lower lows, lower highs.
• Flat trend - The price stays in a range
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Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.
If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.
At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.
Now case 2:
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.
Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.
Straddle selling webinar over.
One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea
In 2016, the UK transported 484,000,000 tons of freight by sea, but just 2,511,000 tons by air (192x less than by sea). Therefore absurd to think of simply substituting air freight for sea freight (e.g. if we have to fly in food or medicines because of post-Brexit jams at ports)— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 28, 2018
But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster
Here's the truth about Brexit, the "punishment" some people claim the EU wants to inflict on us, the full horrific consequences of no deal, and the dangers lurking behind any deal we reach. Buckle in, it's pretty long. Better to be thorough than to leave anything out. 1/47— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 14, 2018
And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical
Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) November 14, 2018
Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot
Unicorn Shredder: Hard Brexit Truths— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) November 15, 2018
- The major economic harm Brexit is already inflicting on the UK
- Reality of "no deal" & WTO terms
- EU "punishment" narrative
- Endangered industries: automotive & haulage
+ much, much more...
(Each tweet is a self-contained thread.)
Complete beginner’s guide to wealth of Rs 10 Cr in 10 years
Step 1: start trading live
Nothing can substitute experience of live trading
No amount of back-test, studies or indicators can substitute training your mind with screen time
As a beginner, In live trading, you will make losses almost everyday
So here are the conditions which you can’t violate in first year
If you can’t follow these rules, this document is not for you
Start with trading capital of Rs 1 lakhs
Max loss per trade 0.25%, i.e. 250 Rs
Max loss for the day, 1%, i.e. Rs 1000
Max 6 trades in a day
I know, these conditions will cripple you in terms of what all you can trade and how
But just like any start up, trading is also about making it through initial gruelling constraints of life
You will also learn, how to turn these adverse rules to your advantage
Btw, you can sell directional banknifty options, obviously you can buy options, can do cash stock trading and much more under these conditions
Think about it, you will be do all kinds of instruments, just that PNL will not be roller coaster ride or exciting like a casino