1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...

Yesterday was brutal for some people...

Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.

2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.


- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it

2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.

If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information

And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?

I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
6/ An easy signal for being right about #bitcoin is the institutional interest. How much interest is there in:
- Ethereum (minimal)
- XRP (Arrington Capital, oops)
- Link (lol)
- Dentacoin (err)

But Bitcoin - MicroStrategy, Square, Ruffers, MassMutual...
7/ Also - Grayscale, Coinshares, Skybridge, that millionaire Mexican dude.

There is a wall of money coming, and it isn't going into XRP... another easy signal, these people don't want to sell their #bitcoin, why? @bgarlinghouse can't wait to unload his shitcoin on you, why?
8/ Even the shitcoiners hold Bitcoin:
- Tezos foundation
- Block One (remember EOS?)
- I suspect Roger Ver still holds a load
- Even rogue states


9/ But why #bitcoin:
- Only crypto which is meaningfully decentralised
- Regulatory moat established
- Genuine censorship resistance
- Fixed cap
- Predictable issuance

It is the best and hardest fucking money that has ever existed. You can argue against this but you are wrong.
10/ Every cycle:
- Detractors turn to bulls
- Maxi narratives are proved right
- Price sets new all-time highs
- Security increases
- Governments print more useless fiat
11/ I was an idiot through the last cycle:
- Argued against narratives
- Tried to fix Bitcoin (I was new and knew better)
- wAs oPeN MiNdEd
- Watched by BTC stack dwindle away
12/ But a full cycle teaches you a lot of things. Here are the most important lessons...
13/ LESSON 1 "The amount of sats you own is more important than the dollar value of your stack".

21 million divided by your sat stack = your score.

$ value is volatile but your score is the amount of the new financial paradigm you own.

Stack your sats (h/t @matt_odell)
14/ LESSON 2 "Patience"

Stop playing short-term games, zoom that shit out, if you can't handle the drops you are over-leveraged.

Bitcoin is economics 101 - supply and demand. We're talking about hard money, people who get #Bitcoin stay, they rarely sell...
15/ LESSON 3 "Find your edge"

Yeah, you're going to out trade the market, sure you are. Some will, most won't.

My edge is podcasting, so I make shows, sell adds, make a profit and buy #bitcoin. What is your edge?
16/ It really is that fucking simple:
1. Earn money
2. Buy #Bitcoin
3. Be patient

I know what some of you are thinking, but what if #bitcoin fails? Have you not seen the shit it has survived? Silk Road, Mt. Gox, civil wars.

It is still here and stronger than ever.
17/ Still have doubts? Go and spend some time reading stuff at the Nakamoto Institute. I have had my differences with @pierre_rochard but he has been right about so much, usually years ahead of how this plays out.

18/ You don't need to worry too much about the politics, whether you are a libertarian, conservative, progressive or jedi - everyone benefits from hard money.

Look, 2018 sucked, going from paper millionaire to broke was a motherfucker, but tears won't bring back the money.
19/ I have operated with one basic goal since then...
...at the end of every month, I will have more sats than the end of the last month.

Then with a little patience, I trust #bitcoin to do its thing.
20/ But Pete, #bitcoin is too expensive, XRP is only $0.30. If #bitcoin is expensive then why aren't bitcoiners selling? @jack isn't selling, @michael_saylor isn't selling....

...we're not fucking selling because it is heading to $100k.
21/ ...we're not selling at $100k because it is heading to $500k.

...we're not selling at $500k because it is heading to $1m.

(Okay, I will definitely sell a little at $1m for a Lambo, bite me - but 0.2btc for a Lambo, sounds good right?)
22/ #bitcoin teaches financial discipline, it is really simple. It rewards prudence while fiat rewards recklessness.

Inflation punishes the prudent. This isn't right, is it?
23/ So do your thing. If you still want to invest in shitcoins, trade etc... good luck to you.

If you want to build a solid financial future then you need to build solid foundations. You got this!
24/ Learn from the best, I'll miss a few but my goats - @pierre_rochard, @bitstein, @PrestonPysh, @JeffBooth, @Breedlove22, @real_vijay, @matt_odell, @MartyBent, @stephanlivera, @parkeralewis, @jimmysong, @giacomozucco, @LynAldenContact (even @saifedean).
25/ DMs are always open...

...Stack sats, eat your veg, get some sunlight, stay healthy, enjoy all forms of art, be patient, laugh at Tottenham and have a merry fucking Christmas.

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1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:

2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.