BC STOCKSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Here’s a compilation of Personal Finance threads I have written so far. Thank you for motivating me to do it.

Hit the 're-tweet' and help us educated more investors

Yes Bank’s additional Tier 1 bonds, written off. Lakshmi Villas Banks Tier 2 bonds, written off. Understand what & why of ATI and Tier 2 bonds in this thread.

https://t.co/VBmV2dwpPn (1/n)


'Floating Rate Funds' - A case for debt investing in the current interest rate situation


Fixed Income investment strategies

It’s a misconception that FD, RBI Bond, PPF etc have no risk. The reason we don’t see the risk in them is because for us, risk ONLY means loss of capital.


Index Funds v/s ETFs

While index funds and ETF’s look similar, there are multiple differences you need to keep in mind before investing in either of them. Let me highlight the important ones
ALL , MF AMP PERSONAL FINANCE
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
(Thread) With Kotak launching its International REIT Fund of Fund NFO, it is worth revisiting our old thread on Real Estate Investment Trust (#REIT). The Idea is to educate readers on REIT & share our view on the Kotak #NFO

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/n)

What’s a REIT?

Lets say I am a RE developer, K Raheja. I like a land in Mumbai & Hyderabad 4 some commercial development. I decide to buy it. Where will I get the monies 2 buy & construct it?
1. Self
2. Bank, NBFC, MF - Debt
3. Partner – someone else investing as Equity (2/n)

So I invest some monies, got some 4m banks & MF’s & I also got Blackrock to invest 2 buy the land & make the business park called 'Mindspace'. I constructed around 23-mn sq ft with multiple building & I started leasing them out to companies who wanted rented office premises (3/n)

There comes a point where I needed more monies to build new building, pay off the loans etc., where do I get the monies? So I decide to do an #IPO. Not of the entire company K Raheja but only this project called Mindspace. So I formed a trust or corporation (4/n)

I commit to payout 90% of my rent income to the shareholders proportionately as dividends & I will use this IPO money to invest a minimum 80% in completed real estate, which is generating rent & will use 20% in constructing new Real Estate or lend to some other developer (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
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Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
After writing on Banking & Paints, this thread focuses on the 'Logistic Sector'. Idea is to give a small start to the retail investors looking at investing in this space from where they can build on.

This thread covers,
- Macro
- Business Model
- 3PL & 4PL
- Valuation (1/n)

Logistics business macro

-14% of India’s GDP is spent on Logistic
-Organized market is 42%
-Growing at 10-15%
-Employs 2.2 cr
-Achieved Infrastructure status
-FY 14-18 attracted 1,00,000 cr FDI (2/n)

What’s the business?

Logistic is traditionally seen as a warehousing & transportation business where goods, needs 2b transported 4m point A to B using Road, Rail, Ship or Air & can be stored at multiple warehouses before the consumer receives the product (3/n)

The business landscape is changing fast with newer competition and technology is challenging the older business models. 3PL (3rd party logistics) & 4PL is one such change in the business of logistics, will discuss about the same ahead. (4/n)

Listed companies involved in the business may or largely may not own the Trucks, Rails, Aircraft, Ships, Warehouses etc., but uses outsourced services of other vendors and the listed companies manage the logistics from point A to point B (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@kirtan0810
In this #IPO frenzy market, lets talk (Thread) about some basics around
-Angle/VC/PE
-Allotment process
-IPO Funding
-Grey Market

Hit the ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated more investors (1/n)

Why do companies come out with an IPO?

(a) Funding needs
- Business expansion plans
- Debt payoff

(b) Non-Funding requirement
- Enhancing corporate stature
- Exit options to large investors like the VCs & PEs (2/n)

While most of us believe IPOs are for funding requirements, you deep dive and understand it’s more of an exit channel for large investors (VC/PE). Let me explain the same concept from a start-up's perspective (3/n)

If u r starting off ur entrepreneurial journey & need capital, how do u raise funds?
-Self Funding
-Friends & Relatives (F&R)
-Bank Loan
-Angel Investor
Angel investors r the 1s who invest @ the idea stage & PE/VC who invest in the growth phase of the company.(4/n)

- Self funding can be the best option but everyone’s not prepared
- F&R I wish helped
- Bank loans need collateral and
- Angel investors invest only when they see scalability in the business and hence a belief that they will get their investments back. (5/n)
TRADING
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 & 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐬 🧵

I still everyday meet investors who think Bitcoin & Blockchain are the same & this thread is specifically for them

Do re-tweet & help us educate more invetsors ☺

#Investing #Cryptos #Bitcoin (1/n)

(Q1) Lets start with what was historically used as a method of payment?

- Barter system, you give me a cow and I give you 100 kgs of rice (2/n)

(Q2) So why dint we continue with the barter system?

- It was difficult to transact in fractions
- What if I want only 50 kgs of rice? I cant give you half a cow right?
- This is the prime reason for the introduction of smaller units of payment method we now call as coins (3/n)

(Q3) How did Gold coins get shortlisted for the job?
- It was malleable & portable
- It was non corrosive, could be stored for a long time
- It was a perfect combination of abundance & rare
- Plus it was eye catching & visually appealing (4/n)

(Q4) What about paper currencies?
a) When paper currencies were introduced, it was decided that a country could only print as much currency as the gold reserves they have but this was withdrawn in 1971 bcoz of which the central banks could then print as much money as they wanted
BITCOIN

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Nathansha Dilip
Nathansha Dilip
@nathansha_d
(1/n) Some notes from my trading journal – A thread
With this thread I shall attempt to explain how I select my trading picks.

I have learn't this concept from @markminervini 's books. Hope it helps.

#Trade #Investment #invest #StockMarket #stocks #india

(2/n) Stock trading above 200 and 50 DMA

Buy high to gain higher. CMP above 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and 50 DMA above 200 DMA signifies the stock to be in an uptrend. This is an uncompromisable rule. @ZerodhaVarsity @zerodhaonline
#stocks

(3/n) Volume

Volume is the key factor. The stock should show clear signs of accumulation. Generally, accumulation should happen over multiple periods of time. Attached image in the case of #BALAMINES can be used as an eg.
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket


(4/n) Surge

A stock should be bought either when it’s in stage 2 or when it’s forming a base after a surge. Surge is an upward move in a stock. The best trades are those when a huge surge happens in a very short time frame. Eg #FILATEX
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket


(5/n) Consolidation

After a good surge, a stock generally consolidates. This means the stock is in its resting period and will trade only in a range. This phase will be coupled with volume dry up. Tight range with low volumes are the best setups. @ZerodhaVarsity
#stocks
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How to use Moving averages like a Pro.👇

https://t.co/7VbuGovmee
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HMK alias MANOJ
HMK alias MANOJ
@scorpiomanojFRM
#FreeTip
If there are multiple pivot confluences, it is a strong zone and should never be ignored as there is a high possibility of a very significant activity around the zone.
Today's activity is an example. Historically can find similar concepts with varying pivots...
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Aneesh Philomina Antony
Aneesh Philomina Anton...
@ProdigalTrader
Before making ur trade entry or even before making a bias of trend as either bullish or bearish, do u use any objective measures to define the trend based on price, volume and momentum?
Price will always go back and forth move no matter how strong the trend is.

1/4


So an objecctive way of defining the trend as bullish or bearish will help u to stay out of counter trend trades which usually not only hit SL, but slippages tend to be quite high in case of those trades. If u dont believe that, u can either check ur journal .

2/4

In the pic, an example was shown with objectively defining the price trend based on momenum. If price is bullish then either take long entry while price pulls back on 20 SMA or when it makes a new breakout, its very very safe method.

3/4

Even one can use simple MACD for defining the trend. Indicator doesnt have any magic, be it custom made or default one. Trick is in identifying the bias when its quite clear and obvious and not to trade till then.

4/4
STOCKSLEARNINGS
HMK alias MANOJ
HMK alias MANOJ
@scorpiomanojFRM
#FreeTip
A simple illustration to analyse stocks in a very simple way:
1) Prepare a list of stocks with more than say, 400% returns last 1 year and currently above 3 digits. U will have around 30-40 NSE listed stocks.
2) Look at each stock chart just before breakout
.....

....
3) Take a note book and right down against each stock, the behaviour of MAs Vis a vis the stock, for eg., 30 week MA / daily 200 ma / 150 ma, 50 ma, etc.); the behaviour of Relative Strength (RS); behaviour in terms of volume; any pattern like rectangular breakout etc.
...

....
4) Might take 3 plus hours for the above exercise. Once you are done, see the common elements against all stocks. That is the edge you have knowing the behaviour of super performance stocks. U need not hold for 400%. U can atleast get 20% out of it.
....

...
5) A eg. is -- few of the stocks had 3 year rectangular breakouts with RS at new high / 52w high. This is just an example. Dont immediately look for only this criteria. I can help you out with a list of triple digit stocks in excess of 400% over last 1 year.
GoodLuck.
STOCKSLEARNINGS

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Low-risk, High-return stocks are what we look for relentlessly

But many of them we know but ignore
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Here are 10 low-risk, high return stocks (that we ignore):

What I mean by “high-return”?

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💹Chart with upwards trend Since IPO
💹Chart with upwards trend Over the last 5 Years or since IPO

These are all long-term winners that will keep on winning

What do We Mean by “low-risk”?

A combination of:

❣️Great management
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❣️Low Disruption/Dilution/Volatility
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1-#CDSL

A depository is a big business and will grow continuously, Its a sustainable business
cause "Market hai toh CDSL bhi hai or rahega"


2- #Dixon

High Management Efficiency with a high ROE of 19.30%
Healthy long-term growth as Net Sales has grown by an annual rate of more than 30%
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LOW RISK HIGH RETURN STOCKS , LOW RISK HIGH RETURN STOCKS FOR LONG TERM , LOW RISK STOCK IDEAS
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2) UCAS School of mathematical sciences Professor

3) UCAS School of nuclear sciences and technology
https://t.co/nQH8JnewcJ
4) UCAS School of astronomy and space sciences
https://t.co/7Ikc6CuKHZ
5) UCAS School of engineering

6) Geotechnical Engineering Teaching and Research Office
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7) Multi-scale Mechanics Teaching and Research Section
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😎 Microgravity Science Teaching and Research

9) High temperature gas dynamics teaching and research section
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10) Department of Biomechanics and Medical Engineering
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11) Ocean Engineering Teaching and Research

12) Department of Dynamics and Advanced Manufacturing
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13) Refrigeration and Cryogenic Engineering Teaching and Research Office
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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
🌺श्री गरुड़ पुराण - संक्षिप्त वर्णन🌺

हिन्दु धर्म के 18 पुराणों में से एक गरुड़ पुराण का हिन्दु धर्म में बड़ा महत्व है। गरुड़ पुराण में मृत्यु के बाद सद्गती की व्याख्या मिलती है। इस पुराण के अधिष्ठातृ देव भगवान विष्णु हैं, इसलिए ये वैष्णव पुराण है।


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