BC STOCKSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

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Have been bullish on #gold since $1786, Gold at $1910 today.

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(Thread) With Kotak launching its International REIT Fund of Fund NFO, it is worth revisiting our old thread on Real Estate Investment Trust (#REIT). The Idea is to educate readers on REIT & share our view on the Kotak #NFO

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/n)

What’s a REIT?

Lets say I am a RE developer, K Raheja. I like a land in Mumbai & Hyderabad 4 some commercial development. I decide to buy it. Where will I get the monies 2 buy & construct it?
1. Self
2. Bank, NBFC, MF - Debt
3. Partner – someone else investing as Equity (2/n)

So I invest some monies, got some 4m banks & MF’s & I also got Blackrock to invest 2 buy the land & make the business park called 'Mindspace'. I constructed around 23-mn sq ft with multiple building & I started leasing them out to companies who wanted rented office premises (3/n)

There comes a point where I needed more monies to build new building, pay off the loans etc., where do I get the monies? So I decide to do an #IPO. Not of the entire company K Raheja but only this project called Mindspace. So I formed a trust or corporation (4/n)

I commit to payout 90% of my rent income to the shareholders proportionately as dividends & I will use this IPO money to invest a minimum 80% in completed real estate, which is generating rent & will use 20% in constructing new Real Estate or lend to some other developer (5/n)
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Kirtan A Shah
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Here’s a compilation of Personal Finance threads I have written so far. Thank you for motivating me to do it.

Hit the 're-tweet' and help us educated more investors

Yes Bank’s additional Tier 1 bonds, written off. Lakshmi Villas Banks Tier 2 bonds, written off. Understand what & why of ATI and Tier 2 bonds in this thread.

https://t.co/VBmV2dwpPn (1/n)


'Floating Rate Funds' - A case for debt investing in the current interest rate situation


Fixed Income investment strategies

It’s a misconception that FD, RBI Bond, PPF etc have no risk. The reason we don’t see the risk in them is because for us, risk ONLY means loss of capital.


Index Funds v/s ETFs

While index funds and ETF’s look similar, there are multiple differences you need to keep in mind before investing in either of them. Let me highlight the important ones
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Kirtan A Shah
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@kirtan0810
A basic primer on the Indian Paint sector

With the listing of Indigo paints, JSW entering the paint sector & now Grasim announcing to invest 5,000 cr in the sector, lets explore,
-Products
-Industry
-Company

Do hit the ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more investors (1/n)

Lets start with PRODUCTS

India paint industry is broadly divided into two,
(1) Decorative Paints (used mainly in residential & office infrastructure)–75% of the total paints market
(2) Industrial Paints (used in Auto & other industrial uses)-25% of the total paints market (2/n)

Decorative Paints is further classified as
a. Primer & Putty–They r applied 2 the wall 2 fill the cracks in the wall & make it smooth b4 painting. It also gives a lasting effect to the paint
b. Thinner–Its mixed with the paint 2 reduce the viscosity,applying becomes easy (3/n)

c. Emulsion Paint – Water based premium range paint mainly used in metros & large cities
d. Enamel Paint- Oil based medium range paint for smaller cities
e. Distemper–Water based paint mainly for the rural area as it can be used on the wall directly without using the primer(4/n)

(f) Wood Coating – Used to protect furniture against moisture (5/n)
SECTOREXPLAINATIONS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No

So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)

Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)

So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)
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T-1 Psychology behind the formation of a candle - personally I feel that if one is aware of psychology behind the formation of candle than chart starts talking to you. So, here I am starting my journey of 🧵 with how actually candles form. Small but important for beginners 👇

Hammer - formed at the end of downtrend, opened sellers pushed the prices down, buyers came & pushed the prices up & close the candle above the OP. Shadow formed twice of body. Also observed at trend line & support zone. 👇


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Bearish Engulfing- formed after a uptrend. Price opened above the previous candle, sellers came & form a big red candle below the low of previous candle. Merging of both form a shooting star. 👇
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What Are Cyclical Stocks?
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\u211a\u1d1c\u1d00\u0274\u1d1b \u1d0b\u1d00\u0280\u0274\u1d00\u0262\u1d07
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stoploss & slippages : a thread to understand how to avoid big slippage when you get stopped out #Qunat #AlgoTradeing #Nifty #stoploss (p.s. this is just an effort to educate & example is for illustration only.) hope this helps.


1. NSE maintains two orderbooks one which has all the bid & ask offers till its full depth 2. is stoploss orderbook which is not available for anyone to lookup unlike the 1st one.
you can place two type of stoploss orders one is SL-Market & SL-limit

These SL orders gets recored in SL-Orderbook in 1st come 1st basis for that mentioned trigger price
ex. 1) 9:20 -> SL order trigger at 100 qty 500
2) 9:45 -> SL order with trigger at 100 qty 500
3) 11:30 -> SL order with trigger at 100.5 qty 500


Now when price is dropping and as soon as it starts hitting the trigger prices mentioned in SL-Orderbook .. these orders get released in pubilc bid ask orderbook. in this case for our ex. trigger execution order will be 3,1,2

for this particular day market opened gap-up, for lot of traders this becomes bullish bias .. with this bias market was in very narrow trading zone giving everyone opportunity to enter .. majority of ppl will keep SL below nearest swing low.
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No.

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