BC STOCKSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Last Akshay Tritiya, had written the below thread 🧵 on which is the best way to buy gold, Physical, Digital, ETF or Sovereign Gold Bond and why?

Do re-tweet and help us educate more retail investors

#investing
GOLD
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Amongst other performance details, what we miss out while selecting an actively managed mutual fund is the AUM.

In equity, moderate the better. In debt, higher the better.

#investing
MFS
Advertisement
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Have been bullish on #gold since $1786, Gold at $1910 today.

#investing
GOLD
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
(Thread) With Kotak launching its International REIT Fund of Fund NFO, it is worth revisiting our old thread on Real Estate Investment Trust (#REIT). The Idea is to educate readers on REIT & share our view on the Kotak #NFO

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/n)

What’s a REIT?

Lets say I am a RE developer, K Raheja. I like a land in Mumbai & Hyderabad 4 some commercial development. I decide to buy it. Where will I get the monies 2 buy & construct it?
1. Self
2. Bank, NBFC, MF - Debt
3. Partner – someone else investing as Equity (2/n)

So I invest some monies, got some 4m banks & MF’s & I also got Blackrock to invest 2 buy the land & make the business park called 'Mindspace'. I constructed around 23-mn sq ft with multiple building & I started leasing them out to companies who wanted rented office premises (3/n)

There comes a point where I needed more monies to build new building, pay off the loans etc., where do I get the monies? So I decide to do an #IPO. Not of the entire company K Raheja but only this project called Mindspace. So I formed a trust or corporation (4/n)

I commit to payout 90% of my rent income to the shareholders proportionately as dividends & I will use this IPO money to invest a minimum 80% in completed real estate, which is generating rent & will use 20% in constructing new Real Estate or lend to some other developer (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Is US going to default on its debt?

This 🧵 will surely help you understand. Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated investors (1/13)


How does a country run?

Assume a country to be like a company, which has income & expenses. Income source can be tax collections & expense can be government employee salaries, defence sending’s, social security schemes etc. (2/13)

Generally, most economies are running a deficit; their income is less than expense. So if your income is 100 and expense is 105, where do you get the 5? You borrow!

Similarly US has been borrowing & the total debt today roughly stands at a whooping $28.5T. (3/13)

Deficit in the last 2 years has gone up significantly because of COVID + the government wants to spend more; a $3.5T spending package is what they are trying to get an approval for + older debt is coming up for maturity (4/13)


Okay, so I am saying they will raise more debt for the deficit of COVID, the new package & paying older debt off?

Ideally a yes but they are not allowed to borrow more! (5/13)
WOULDUSDEFAULT

More from Stockslearnings

Trading Sasmal
Trading Sasmal
@TradingSasmal
@Abhishekkar_ @Traderknight007 @caniravkaria @vivbajaj @VijayThk

A Thread on Rectangle Pattern:-


What is rectangle pattern?

Rectangle pattern also known as trading range, consolidation.We get multi-day, multi-week or multi-month consolidation where price move in range.

How rectangle pattern formed:-

The price should touch two point of resistance and two point of support parallelly to form rectangle pattern. Price move in range line "A " and line "B", line "A" known as resistance or supply, line "B" known as support or demand.


Role of volume :-

If you go through textbook method volume should dry up during the consolidation. But in my experience it is not necessary that volume should dry up there are time when volume get aggressive during consolidation.

Below chart shows how volume get aggressive during consolidation.
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Raghav Chaudhary
Raghav Chaudhary
@MrRChaudhary
𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Advertisement
Aneesh Philomina Antony
Aneesh Philomina Anton...
@ProdigalTrader
Before making ur trade entry or even before making a bias of trend as either bullish or bearish, do u use any objective measures to define the trend based on price, volume and momentum?
Price will always go back and forth move no matter how strong the trend is.

1/4


So an objecctive way of defining the trend as bullish or bearish will help u to stay out of counter trend trades which usually not only hit SL, but slippages tend to be quite high in case of those trades. If u dont believe that, u can either check ur journal .

2/4

In the pic, an example was shown with objectively defining the price trend based on momenum. If price is bullish then either take long entry while price pulls back on 20 SMA or when it makes a new breakout, its very very safe method.

3/4

Even one can use simple MACD for defining the trend. Indicator doesnt have any magic, be it custom made or default one. Trick is in identifying the bias when its quite clear and obvious and not to trade till then.

4/4
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Piyush Chaudhry
Piyush Chaudhry
@piyushchaudhry
In such a case, H&S can be either a continuation pattern or compound fulcrum.
This is how to differentiate:
• if right shoulder is smaller than left, most likely a continuation H&S
• if right is same or higher than left, and the price is not coming to neckline, most likely CF
STOCKSLEARNINGS , PATTERNS , CHARTS PATTERNS
HMK alias MANOJ
HMK alias MANOJ
@scorpiomanojFRM
#Freetip
Today's move is an example of this tweet. Save this chart for future ref. https://t.co/amUhSLrET3
STOCKSLEARNINGS

You May Also Like

\uff2c\uff41\uff44\uff59 \uff22\uff4c\uff41\uff5a\uff45\uff53
Ｌａｄｙ Ｂｌａｚｅｓ...
@Lady_Blazes
Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
GOVERNMENT
Fidato
Fidato
@tequieremos
A thread on the life and achievements of Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jillani RadiAllah who served Islam infinitely as the Reviver (Mujadid) of the 11th Century!


Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jilani (RA) was one of the greatest Islamic Saint, Scholar, and Jurist. The honorific Muhiyudin denotes his status with many Sufis as a "reviver of religion". Jilani refers to his place of birth. He also carried the epithet Baghdadi.

[1]

Sheikh Abdul Qadir Jilani was born on the eve of the 2nd of Ramadan 470 AH. His birth was a great blessing for the Ummah. It was the arrival of the Sultan al-Awliya (King of the Awliya) of that era, which had been foretold for centuries before his birth.

[2]

When Hazrat Abdul Qadir Jillani was asked by someone what brought him to his high spiritual level, he said, The truthfulness which I promised to my mother. He related the following story:
"One day, on the eve of Eid al-Adhā, I went to my mother, who was then a widow and..

[3]

..and requested her, 'Send me to the path of Truth, give me permission to go to Baghdad to acquire knowledge, to be with the wise and those who are close to Allah. She cried, but she brought out 80 pieces of gold, which was all that my father had left as inheritance.

[4]
RELIGION
Advertisement
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
MEENAKSHI AMMAN, MADURAI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

A paadal Petra sthalam where Shiva took the form of Sundareswarar (the handsome one) and married Devi Parvati (Meenakshi).
Devi is also known by the name Angayarkanni (mother with the beautiful fish eyes).
@GunduHuDuGa


Devi Meenakshi emerged from yagna fire as a 3 year old girl when Pandyan King Malayadwaja and Kanchanamalai were praying for a child.
It is said that Devi was born with three breasts and there was a prophesy that her superfluous breast would melt away when she met her husband.


Devi ruled over Madurai and captured Indralok. She went on to capture Kailasha. When she saw Shiva, her 3rd breast disappeared and she realised that Shiva would be her consort.
The divine marriage was attended by all Devas and Sri Vishnu (as her brother) gave her hand to Shiva.


It is said that Indra found a swayambhu lingam at Kadamba Vanam. He placed it in Madurai where the kshetram stands. Here, Shiva is seen on the vehicle of Indra.
The Golden Lotus Tank is said to be the place where a golden lotus blossomed for the puja performed by Indra.


The Meenakshi Thirukalyanam festival is celebrated in the Chithirai month to mark the divine marriage of Meenakshi Amman. The festival includes a procession where Meenakshi and Sundareshwara travel in a chariot and Sri Vishnu gives away his sister in marriage to Shiva.
ALL
Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Nanganallur Anjaneya Temple
#Chennai
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Bhaktha Anjaneya temple at Nanganallur in Chennai is one among tallest Anjaneyar Vigraham. Here Anjaneyar blesses with relief to all illness. Vigraham is about 32 feet height made of single  stone.
Anjaneyar here is 👇


Sri Vishwaroopa Aadhivyathihara Baktha Anjaneya Swamy.

Sthala Puranam says that, this is the place where Indra Deva hit Hanuman on the cheek by his Vajrastram. Sri Raghavendra Swami and Sri Kanchi Paramacharyar were behind in building this temple. Temple is constructed to


Realize power of Anjaneyar who is seen both in Ramayana and Mahabharatha.
Vadamalai is important offering to Anjaneyar here. It is believed that vigraham contain powers to heal any disease. Shri Ramanavami is celebrated here.

Jai Sri Ram
Jai Hanuman
🙏🕉🙏
ALL
Temitope Badejo
Temitope Badejo
@TemitopeBadejo1
It's another day to expose Peter Alabi @pastorpeealabi of @HoFChurchNG & @ChristTribe. More victims have reached out to us. Unknown to many, Peter Alabi is actually an unrepentant serial sexual abuser. We know that he's been lying that he has repented and that the stories...

... we have put out so far are only with reference to what happened years back. But we can also confirm that he continued to prey on more victims even after he left Ife in 2016. We also know that Peter Alabi made serious attempts to sleep with some ladies during the lockdown...

A victim, who was one of those Peter Alabi tried to sleep with during the Covid-19 lockdown has shared with us some of the chats between her and Peter Alabi, which were initiated by Peter Alabi. According to the victim, when Peter Alabi's intentions became obvious, she decided...

... to play along and act like she was in concert with him. This eventually made Peter Alabi to reveal his covert intentions to sleep with her. The chat began on Instagram in March 2020 and continued on WhatsApp till June 2020. We will be sharing screenshots of the Instagram...

... chats below. Later today, we will share the WhatsApp chats which are more revealing and expository. Please see the screenshots of the Instagram chats between Peter Alabi (peterayoalabi) and the victim below👇🏾 @oauchristians @HoFChurchNG @peterayoalabi @funlola_alabi
CRIME , PASTOR , ALL