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It's Sunday, Fed blackout, am recovering from soccer match, sipping on double espresso, so of course a perfect time to take on Tyler Cowen here. 🙂


Like many people, I enjoy reading Tyler's blog. But there are times (alright, many times) I disagree with him. This is no big deal. I also disagree with myself sometimes (especially my past self). But his recent post left me

What is he trying to say here? After thinking about it for a bit, I think he's critiquing the idea that "running the economy hot" leads to employment *and* real wage gains. Perhaps the former, but only at the expense of the latter. At least, this is what a textbook IS-LM model

tells us if one "runs the economy hot" through increased fiscal stimulus (on consumption and transfers, not public infrastructure investment). If this is what he meant, then he should have just said so, instead of labeling this a "Keynesian" proposition.

In fact, this property follows as a *neoclassical* proposition that is embedded in the IS-LM framework. (For non-economists, note that Keynes did not invent IS-LM; the framework was developed later by Hicks as an interpretation of *some* parts of the General Theory.)
#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb

A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.

A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.

[thread]

I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (
https://t.co/rmVT8b5sFl).

Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.


Can we quantify match importance then?

Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: https://t.co/ObjB079Fjw

Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.

In a game with a high match importance vs. a team with low match importance, a team's likelihood of winning increases: All else being equal, if match importance is 100 for the home team and 0 for the away team, the home team's odds of winning drop from Evens (50%) to 8/11 (58%).

If we look at the combined match importance ratings for both teams, tonight's game ranks 14th of the 317 matches with match importance ratings. Pretty important then!

Of our matches only the win against Bournemouth had a higher combined match importance than tonight's match:
When thinking about who to play in DM for Leeds the word "role" is important. Let's have a think about the role:


A lot of people think Struijk isn't good enough in the build-up phase. Well, what does the DM do in build-up?

Here's a passing network from last season:


As you can see, Phillips' role in the Championship last season was largely facilitating build up in the wide area (on the left interestingly).

Per Wyscout, Phillips is putting up a figure of 7.03 long passes per 90 minutes and completes around 59%. Last season he was making 6.94 long passes per 90 mins at around 52%.

Per dribbles he's putting up similar numbers across both seasons (between 1 and 1.5 p90) and per duels he's putting up the same number (20 p90).

All of this suggests his role hasn't changed much over the last couple of seasons.
We're all loving the return of the UCL but in terms of football folklore, a fixture going down in Chile tonight may just be the most important match of the week.

It's a relegation playoff between CD Universidad & Colo Colo it has all of Chile holding it's breath. (THREAD)


It's all because the away side is Colo Colo, the country's biggest, most successful club, with 32 titles & the only Chilean Copa Libertadores trophy.

They have never even come close to relegation & the sheer thought of going down is causing all kinds of scenes across the country


From the ritualistic Grandma's doing their bit to convince the football sprits to keep them in the top


To the 5,000 fans outside who awaited the team bus outside the training ground for one last motivational


And of course the club's Barra Bravas with their own take on motivation