Authors Peter A. Løhmann
7 days
30 days
All time
Recent
Popular
#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb
A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.
A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.
[thread]
I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (https://t.co/rmVT8b5sFl).
Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.
Can we quantify match importance then?
Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: https://t.co/ObjB079Fjw
Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.
In a game with a high match importance vs. a team with low match importance, a team's likelihood of winning increases: All else being equal, if match importance is 100 for the home team and 0 for the away team, the home team's odds of winning drop from Evens (50%) to 8/11 (58%).
If we look at the combined match importance ratings for both teams, tonight's game ranks 14th of the 317 matches with match importance ratings. Pretty important then!
Of our matches only the win against Bournemouth had a higher combined match importance than tonight's match:
A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.
A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.
[thread]
I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (https://t.co/rmVT8b5sFl).
Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.
#swfc Derby's latest win over QPR leaves Wednesday six points adrift of 21st and safety with two matches in hand.
— Peter A. L\xf8hmann (@ploehmann) January 27, 2021
How have teams in those circumstances done in the previous 22 seasons?
[thread] pic.twitter.com/LxENys45wC
Can we quantify match importance then?
Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: https://t.co/ObjB079Fjw
Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.
In a game with a high match importance vs. a team with low match importance, a team's likelihood of winning increases: All else being equal, if match importance is 100 for the home team and 0 for the away team, the home team's odds of winning drop from Evens (50%) to 8/11 (58%).
If we look at the combined match importance ratings for both teams, tonight's game ranks 14th of the 317 matches with match importance ratings. Pretty important then!
Of our matches only the win against Bournemouth had a higher combined match importance than tonight's match: