Hello everyone arguing about the #minimumwage! Someday I'll post a thread about the evidence our @UW team compiled in Seattle.

Today let's talk about hours.

Raise the wage on most low-paying jobs & workers still don't have enough to live on. Because they can't get enough hours.

The graph above is based on data from WA: one of only 4 states that collects systematic data on hours worked. It shows information for anyone earning under $11/hr in 2014-15, when the minimum wage was no more than $9.47.

The data have some important limitations:
-No information on gig/contractor employment
-No "informal" employment
-No jobs outside WA

However if a worker is holding 2+ job we can "see" all of them and include them all in calculating how many hours they work.

The median low wage worker works ~800 hours per year.
With a $15 minimum wage, working 800 hours/year, your annual income works out to $12,000.

That's below the poverty line for a single person, and less than half the poverty line for a family of 4.

Whereas if you could get full time hours (2,000/year) your income would be $30k.
The problem with low wage work (aside from low wages): these jobs tend to be unstable, seasonal, or offered by employers that need a large workforce for a limited number of hours per week.

Since the minimum wage is specified in dollars/hour, it can't guarantee a living income.
The @CityofSeattle, and a few other places, have tried to address the hours problem. They've enacted regulations to make hours more stable and predictable, which is a worthy goal. But a job offering a stable, predictable 10 hours a week isn't going to earn you a living.
A century ago, the first minimum wage policies adopted in states like Oregon and Massachusetts set a *weekly* minimum, not hourly. What would a policy like that look like today?

Imagine this: every job must offer either
a) $15/hour
b) $400/week for up to 40 hrs ($15/hr overtime)
Option b) allows businesses to pay as little as $10/hour, if they consistently offer full-time hours.

In exchange for a lower hourly rate, businesses would have to accept risk that, under current policy, they shift to workers.

Consider the case of a beer garden in Seattle.
If the weather's rainy, there won't be many customers and thus little revenue. When workers are paid by the hour, the beer garden passes a portion of this revenue hit to workers by telling them to stay home if it rains.

(at least in the days before Seattle regulated this!)
The hybrid weekly/hourly wage policy would give businesses a choice: they can pay less per hour if they're willing to bear risk themselves. Or they can pay a higher rate that compensates workers for bearing the risk instead.
The hybrid minimum, unlike a straight hourly minimum, would offer at least some workers a guaranteed income above the poverty line (for certain household sizes, anyway).

The main argument against? Same as for the traditional minimum wage: it might reduce employment.
Would it really reduce employment? If so, by how much? That's a thread for another day...

/fin

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So, as the #MegaMillions jackpot reaches a record $1.6B and #Powerball reaches $620M, here's my advice about how to spend the money in a way that will truly set you, your children and their kids up for life.

Ready?

Create a private foundation and give it all away. 1/

Let's stipulate first that lottery winners often have a hard time. Being publicly identified makes you a target for "friends" and "family" who want your money, as well as for non-family grifters and con men. 2/

The stress can be damaging, even deadly, and Uncle Sam takes his huge cut. Plus, having a big pool of disposable income can be irresistible to people not accustomed to managing wealth.
https://t.co/fiHsuJyZwz 3/

Meanwhile, the private foundation is as close as we come to Downton Abbey and the landed aristocracy in this country. It's a largely untaxed pot of money that grows significantly over time, and those who control them tend to entrench their own privileges and those of their kin. 4

Here's how it works for a big lotto winner:

1. Win the prize.
2. Announce that you are donating it to the YOUR NAME HERE Family Foundation.
3. Receive massive plaudits in the press. You will be a folk hero for this decision.
4. Appoint only trusted friends/family to board. 5/
This is a piece I've been thinking about for a long time. One of the most dominant policy ideas in Washington is that policy should, always and everywhere, move parents into paid labor. But what if that's wrong?

My reporting here convinced me that there's no large effect in either direction on labor force participation from child allowances. Canada has a bigger one than either Romney or Biden are considering, and more labor force participation among women.

But what if that wasn't true?

Forcing parents into low-wage, often exploitative, jobs by threatening them and their children with poverty may be counted as a success by some policymakers, but it’s a sign of a society that doesn’t value the most essential forms of labor.

The problem is in the very language we use. If I left my job as a New York Times columnist to care for my 2-year-old son, I’d be described as leaving the labor force. But as much as I adore him, there is no doubt I’d be working harder. I wouldn't have stopped working!

I tried to render conservative objections here fairly. I appreciate that @swinshi talked with me, and I'm sorry I couldn't include everything he said. I'll say I believe I used his strongest arguments, not more speculative ones, in the piece.

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Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.
I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.