BC LIFE
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

Why do we like blowing bubbles?

(This is not a bitcoin thread, go away)
1/

 So I'm not a “neurotypical” (a fact discovered late in life) and while we won't go into the details here, the net output of that fact appears to be that I'm wired to take a more… ‘zoological’ approach to understanding humanity.

Hence the quirky Animal Planet threads.
2/
The distance afforded by non-participation in certain things (the weakness) also occasionally lends itself to a bit more subtlety with pattern detection (the strength).

And so I started painting a picture about bubbles.
3/
And in my mind’s eye there formed a cluster of ladybugs. They were happy, far from from eating aphids, and content on their beautiful tree.

And then one started flapping.
4/
At first the other ladybugs ignored it, but after a time its persistence was intoxicating.

And so a few more flapped.

And as is the way with exercise, certain endorphins were released

And it felt good to flap.
5/
And before long the tree was like the ladybug equivalent of CrossFit: everyone was doing it and getting hella jacked.

The tree was abuzz, and the energy was bright and intoxicating.
6/
But a few ladybugs didn't flap. They didn't like this new thing because they didn't understand it - the flapping had no logic.

But the flapping wasn't about logic, it was about feeling good.

So the non-flappers were wrong, in a way.
7/
For some time things continued this way, and much joy was produced by the flapping.

Except for the non-flappers, who still just ate their aphids and did their non-flappy things.
8/
And then autumn came, and with it a beautiful crispness.

But the aphids were less plentiful.

And so the flapping began to feel less good, for there was less fuel for it.

And the buzzing dimmed.
9/
And before long the ladybugs, more focused on sustenance, had ceased flapping altogether.

While most of the ladybugs rushes around in a provisioning frenzy, the non-flappers were calm, still fat with their stored energy.
10/
And as these things go, the non-flappers declared that they had been right all along.

Clearly non-flapping had been the prudent, safer play.
11/
But were they right?

Foe they also had missed out on the beautiful euphoria of the flap, stoically sacrificing it for a calmer, more serene experience over time.

Perhaps in the end such things are a matter of appetite.
12/
And that's what makes a market.
/13
Oh hey - we're gonna talk about bubbles and such on @RealVision soon!

Stay tuned; some fun stuff lined up.

More from Travis Kimmel

Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/
BUSINESS
Travis Kimmel
Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis
What are prices?

A layperson’s guide to understanding charts and volatility.
1/

It’s an observable fact that price has nothing to do with value. Perhaps over the long term these two converge, but in the short term it makes no sense that the price of, say, soybeans would change 3-4% from day to day.

So what’s happening?
2/

You’ve probably heard people say “markets are forward looking” and that’s sorta true, I guess.

But that doesn’t mean they’re any good at it.

It might be better to say “markets consistently attempt to look forward” because that would be more illustrative of what’s happening.
3/

When a day-over-day price makes a 3% move this is not a 3% shift in value, it’s a 3% shift in *aggregate expectations about future value.*

And that makes sense, right? Expectations are pretty ephemeral so they can move fast.
4/

Consider volatility through this same lens. When a market is highly volatile, this means that expectations about forward value are evolving rapidly.

This happened in March when everyone got scared about Covid - it broke people’s forward expectations, and thus broke markets.
5/
TRADING
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Travis Kimmel
Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis
Let’s talk about money and the State (Sovereign).

Since everyone constantly gets this wrong.
1/

So look: there never was a barter-centric state of nature.

That’s a nice story but when we look at the historical record, it’s just flat out false.

In point of fact:

- Debt predates money.
- Money predates barter.
2/

The way the Sovereign first got involved with debt was something like this:

King: “If you don’t give me 3 goats during harvest season, my soldiers will come burn your fucking house down.”

And in this way, the King originated a debt.

By fiat.
3/

But moving goats around sucks (horrible creatures) and is just sort of logistically annoying, so a new plan was devised, like this:

King: “Same deal with the soldiers and the burning and the profanity, but now it’s 50 pieces of silver instead of goats.”

Presto! Money!
4/

Money is a token that settles debts - always has been. The reason it’s useful is because it allows society to function like an abacus with N players.

In lieu of just the sovereign playing debt, these tokens are ‘debt settlement bearer assets’ which allow…well... the economy
5/
SOCIETY
Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
QE, Liquidity Removal, and the Alchemy of Money

I’ve been watching @MetreSteven say stuff like “QE removes liquidity” on here for a while after which people sort of stare blankly or roll their eyes.

Let’s give it one more go, via a traditionally quirky explainer.
1/

At the heart of every monetary system is an act of alchemy.

Let us start by describing this act: the act of monetary creation.

At the center of alchemy lies the Philosopher's Stone - the prime reagent for money creation.

For a long time this was gold.
2/


For if you had gold, you could lend against it.

From the Philosopher's stone of gold, we could spawn two things:

1. Circulating money
2. Debt

Money and debt are twins, both born of the philosopher's stone and their fates forever linked.
3/


For you see, there are rules which govern alchemy.

An alchemist is only allowed to create a certain amount of money for each philosopher's stone.

And the Debt was greater than the Money (due to interest), making the system inherently deflationary.
4/

And this deflationary nature drove the people to want more money in circulation.

So the rules of alchemy were evolved to allow each stone to create more money (fractional reserve banking).
5/
MACRO
Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
@evan_lorenz Exactly this.

Plus in a gold-based system, smaller entities (SMBs or sole proprietors) could presumably even self-custody to reduce the carrying cost of gold to zero.

This is not possible with bitcoin, in which one owns a share of a collective and equally distributed liability.

The hilarity of all this, to me, is that Bitcoin makes the most sense if viewed as a Marxist worker’s rebellion.

The central promise is UBI: buy tokens that increase in value forever, granting you wealth for doing nothing.

And the cost is the future.
MACRO

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Robert Frank
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@Robertfrank615
Years ago I would troll CrossFit/Planet Fitness until I got bored with it and created the “Car Rage” guy. People would say, stop screaming in your car and go back to trolling CrossFit. I didn’t listen.

After screaming in my car for 3 years I started doing other shit......

.... like MeatHead Minutes, Hater Dance Videos, Macho Man impersonations, Podcasting, exposing the hypocrisy of BLM, doing Live Streams nightly on YouTube, etc. People would say, stop doing this other shit and go back to screaming in your car. I didn’t listen....

.... my FB page has grown over 176k new followers since my first George Floyd video in June and all I really post about is current event shit. I posted a “Car Rage” video yesterday and people are saying, stop screaming in your car and go back to talking about politics......

.... moral of this cool story bro is the BEST thing I ever did, is not listen to what anyone told me to do. Be you.
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Nick Huber
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How to get smarter very fast:

Interact with smart people here on Twitter who have different world-views than you do.

And let them change your mind on something.

Here are the 30 people you should follow (along with my favorite tweet from each)👇👇

Twitter can be terrible if you follow negative people.

It can also be more valuable than a college degree if you follow (and network with) the right people.

You get to look right into their brain and read a daily narrative of HOW they think.

Ok lets go:

#1: @ShaanVP

You know he's all about venture capital based entrepreneurship. I'm about small (non-sexy) business. We disagree on a lot of stuff.

But he's done it and he's won. Bonus follow: @theSamParr (@myfirstmilpod podcast


#2: @fortworthchris

He is where I want to be in 15 years. Has built a massive real estate private equity firm from the ground up. Super grounded with what the way he does business and his podcast @theFORTpodcast is top


#3: @Julian

I'm a scattered thinker and procrastinator.

Julian is a master of clear thinking and simple but effective writing. A world class example of content marketing and
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ArmaniTalks \U0001f399\U0001f525
ArmaniTalks 🎙🔥...
@ArmaniTalks
Too much intellect without a sense of self can inflate your ego.

This is why a lot of high IQ people lack social intelligence.

They talk to humans like robots & are baffled when they are resented for it.

This is why the charismatic person who knows less often rises up quicker

'What you smoking bro?? My IQ will be the biggest factor of my success!'

Incorrect.

That's a limiting belief.

I'm gonna shake up your paradigm real quick 👇

You have been conditioned your entire life to believe that IQ score alone will dictate success.

And like most people, we were like 'yea, sure!'

But there's few incorrect thought patterns here

1. Success is subjective.

2. IQ exam insinuates intellect is fixed.

3. Your high IQ won't make others give a fuck, your communication will.

Let's go thru each one

1. Success is subjective

What I consider success may not be success for you.

Success it's a mirror image of where you are & where you want to be.

Aka sense of self.

So measuring success starts from looking within, not an exam.
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MaybeTheJingoAteYourBaby
MaybeTheJingoAteYourBa...
@colbymommy
Try to imagine yourself as an older Republican. (Obviously you are white and you have a penis.) You have long believed R's to be the responsible ones, the moral ones, the ones who will do the right thing even when it's hard.

You remember your heroes: Eisenhower and Reagan, the Bush's? Right? You knew that they would "take care of us" while all the crazy tree huggers and hippies wanted to buy the world a Coke and and give all your money to poor people and immigrants!

...and how was THAT gonna teach them to pull themselves up by the boot straps and make something of themselves like YOU DID??
After all, this is the land of opportunity, RIGHT? Everyone has the same chance to be successful and PROSPEROUS, right???

You did it all with NO HELP--ALL BY YOURSELF, DIDN'T YOU. I mean, the G.I. Bill didn't do all that MUCH!
Rich people were taxed at 70%, and that was OK with you because you weren't one. *YET*

Just because the cost of living was MINISCULE compared to now, and you got a spiffy new job with a company car and paid health insurance, and a freaking house you BOUGHT ALL BY YOURSELF for 25 thousand freaking dollars,
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A frequent question I get when talking with senior designers: Will my growth as a designer stall if I start managing?

There is often a second question underneath that, which is:
Will I no longer be respected as a design leader if I can't keep up as a designer?

Thread below👇

My short answer to "Will my growth as a designer stall if I manage?" is yes, absolutely, if "designer" is someone who produces design work.

Managing a 5-8 ppl team does not leave you time to design. When you don't practice a craft, you should not expect to get better at it.

However... (and this is a BIG however)...

What you *can* continue to grow (as both a design manager and a designer) is the following:

1) Your design eye
2) Your design voice

A strong design eye means that others trust you to know what is good.

It means your taste is well-honed through extensive study of an area.

It means your sense for usability, simplicity and aesthetics is well-developed even at subtle or fine granularities.

Very early in my design career, my manager asked me to review some design portfolios. I sat there, petrified, clicking through dozens of links. I could tell which ones were really bad, but many of the portfolios seemed good! I could not really distinguish between them on quality!
LIFE

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अस्य श्री गायत्री ध्यान श्लोक:
(gAyatri dhyAna shlOka)
• This shloka to meditate personified form of वेदमाता गायत्री was given by Bhagwaan Brahma to Sage yAgnavalkya (याज्ञवल्क्य).

• 14th shloka of गायत्री कवचम् which is taken from वशिष्ठ संहिता, goes as follows..


• मुक्ता-विद्रुम-हेम-नील धवलच्छायैर्मुखस्त्रीक्षणै:।
muktA vidruma hEma nIla dhavalachhAyaiH mukhaistrlkShaNaiH.

• युक्तामिन्दुकला-निबद्धमुकुटां तत्वार्थवर्णात्मिकाम्॥
yuktAmindukalA nibaddha makutAm tatvArtha varNAtmikam.

• गायत्रीं वरदाभयाङ्कुश कशां शुभ्रं कपालं गदाम्।
gAyatrIm vardAbhayANkusha kashAm shubhram kapAlam gadAm.

• शंखं चक्रमथारविन्दयुगलं हस्तैर्वहन्ती भजै॥
shankham chakramathArvinda yugalam hastairvahantIm bhajE.

This shloka describes the form of वेदमाता गायत्री.

• It says, "She has five faces which shine with the colours of a Pearl 'मुक्ता', Coral 'विद्रुम', Gold 'हेम्', Sapphire 'नील्', & a Diamond 'धवलम्'.

• These five faces are symbolic of the five primordial elements called पञ्चमहाभूत:' which makes up the entire existence.

• These are the elements of SPACE, FIRE, WIND, EARTH & WATER.

• All these five faces shine with three eyes 'त्रिक्षणै:'.
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Risks of bat-borne zoonotic diseases in Western Asia

Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019

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https://t.co/680CdD8uug


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Sam is my middle child & he’s a terror. A “boy’s boy” as so many (not me) would say. He’s rough and tumble, he’s loud, he’s always dirty, loves trucks, plays sports and knee drops me from the couch. But he also loves a lot of “girl” things.

Sam has a collection of purses because he likes to carry things around. And he also loves to have his nails painted bright colors because he thinks they “look beautiful.” And he’s right – they are beautiful…


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2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard

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5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
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SRI BANKEY BIHARI JI, VRINDAVAN (UP)

Very famous Krishna Mandir where Bankey Bihari Ji is worshipped and looked after as a child.
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Legend says that Swami Haridas used to worship Krishna in Nidhivan.
Once, his curious disciples entered the forest but they were almost blinded by bright, intense light. Upon knowing this, Swamiji himself went there and after his requests, Krishna appeared with his consort.


Krishna, then, left back this black charming murti,which we see now, before disappearing.
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Bankey Bihari Ji sports a flute only once a year on the eve of Sharad Purnima.
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