BC LIFE
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

Why do we like blowing bubbles?

(This is not a bitcoin thread, go away)
1/

 So I'm not a “neurotypical” (a fact discovered late in life) and while we won't go into the details here, the net output of that fact appears to be that I'm wired to take a more… ‘zoological’ approach to understanding humanity.

Hence the quirky Animal Planet threads.
2/
The distance afforded by non-participation in certain things (the weakness) also occasionally lends itself to a bit more subtlety with pattern detection (the strength).

And so I started painting a picture about bubbles.
3/
And in my mind’s eye there formed a cluster of ladybugs. They were happy, far from from eating aphids, and content on their beautiful tree.

And then one started flapping.
4/
At first the other ladybugs ignored it, but after a time its persistence was intoxicating.

And so a few more flapped.

And as is the way with exercise, certain endorphins were released

And it felt good to flap.
5/
And before long the tree was like the ladybug equivalent of CrossFit: everyone was doing it and getting hella jacked.

The tree was abuzz, and the energy was bright and intoxicating.
6/
But a few ladybugs didn't flap. They didn't like this new thing because they didn't understand it - the flapping had no logic.

But the flapping wasn't about logic, it was about feeling good.

So the non-flappers were wrong, in a way.
7/
For some time things continued this way, and much joy was produced by the flapping.

Except for the non-flappers, who still just ate their aphids and did their non-flappy things.
8/
And then autumn came, and with it a beautiful crispness.

But the aphids were less plentiful.

And so the flapping began to feel less good, for there was less fuel for it.

And the buzzing dimmed.
9/
And before long the ladybugs, more focused on sustenance, had ceased flapping altogether.

While most of the ladybugs rushes around in a provisioning frenzy, the non-flappers were calm, still fat with their stored energy.
10/
And as these things go, the non-flappers declared that they had been right all along.

Clearly non-flapping had been the prudent, safer play.
11/
But were they right?

Foe they also had missed out on the beautiful euphoria of the flap, stoically sacrificing it for a calmer, more serene experience over time.

Perhaps in the end such things are a matter of appetite.
12/
And that's what makes a market.
/13
Oh hey - we're gonna talk about bubbles and such on @RealVision soon!

Stay tuned; some fun stuff lined up.

More from Travis Kimmel

Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
@evan_lorenz Exactly this.

Plus in a gold-based system, smaller entities (SMBs or sole proprietors) could presumably even self-custody to reduce the carrying cost of gold to zero.

This is not possible with bitcoin, in which one owns a share of a collective and equally distributed liability.

The hilarity of all this, to me, is that Bitcoin makes the most sense if viewed as a Marxist worker’s rebellion.

The central promise is UBI: buy tokens that increase in value forever, granting you wealth for doing nothing.

And the cost is the future.
MACRO
Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/
BUSINESS
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Travis Kimmel
Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis
After much investigation and conversations with people on here, I’ve formed a relatively robust theory of what may be happening with Tether.

This thread will attempt to lay it out with neutral language for the purpose of discussion.
1/

Before we start, please note that ‘robust’ doesn’t mean ‘accurate’, it just means that:

1. the theory is internally consistent
2. it accounts for participant behavior

…but it’s important to remember that this is still hypothesis-stage thinking.
2/

First, let us note that the BTC ecosystem has clearly stated goals. They believe that:

1. Bitcoin is a new global reserve money.
2. They intend to create an alternative financial system around it.

Let’s just take them at their word and assume that’s directionally accurate.
3/

Next, a postulate: most people do not understand the current monetary system very well. This is exemplified by the “BRRR” meme and other variants of thinking which presume that the Fed prints money.

That’s not how the system actually works, as discussed elsewhere.
4/

In reality, what’s happening with the Fed is a bit more subtle and involves various forms of duration swaps and clerical activities that the populace at large gives more credence than those activities actually deserve.

Money is very complex.
5/
FOR LATER READ
Travis Kimmel
Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis
What are prices?

A layperson’s guide to understanding charts and volatility.
1/

It’s an observable fact that price has nothing to do with value. Perhaps over the long term these two converge, but in the short term it makes no sense that the price of, say, soybeans would change 3-4% from day to day.

So what’s happening?
2/

You’ve probably heard people say “markets are forward looking” and that’s sorta true, I guess.

But that doesn’t mean they’re any good at it.

It might be better to say “markets consistently attempt to look forward” because that would be more illustrative of what’s happening.
3/

When a day-over-day price makes a 3% move this is not a 3% shift in value, it’s a 3% shift in *aggregate expectations about future value.*

And that makes sense, right? Expectations are pretty ephemeral so they can move fast.
4/

Consider volatility through this same lens. When a market is highly volatile, this means that expectations about forward value are evolving rapidly.

This happened in March when everyone got scared about Covid - it broke people’s forward expectations, and thus broke markets.
5/
TRADING
Travis Kimmel
Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis
Let’s talk about money and the State (Sovereign).

Since everyone constantly gets this wrong.
1/

So look: there never was a barter-centric state of nature.

That’s a nice story but when we look at the historical record, it’s just flat out false.

In point of fact:

- Debt predates money.
- Money predates barter.
2/

The way the Sovereign first got involved with debt was something like this:

King: “If you don’t give me 3 goats during harvest season, my soldiers will come burn your fucking house down.”

And in this way, the King originated a debt.

By fiat.
3/

But moving goats around sucks (horrible creatures) and is just sort of logistically annoying, so a new plan was devised, like this:

King: “Same deal with the soldiers and the burning and the profanity, but now it’s 50 pieces of silver instead of goats.”

Presto! Money!
4/

Money is a token that settles debts - always has been. The reason it’s useful is because it allows society to function like an abacus with N players.

In lieu of just the sovereign playing debt, these tokens are ‘debt settlement bearer assets’ which allow…well... the economy
5/
SOCIETY

More from Life

Mo Rajabifard
Mo Rajabifard
@morajabi
👨‍💻 Last resume I sent to a startup one year ago, sharing with you to get ideas:

- Forget what you don't have, make your strength bold
- Pick one work experience and explain what you did in detail w/ bullet points
- Write it towards the role you apply
- Give social proof

/thread


"But I got no work experience..."

Make a open source lib, make a small side project for yourself, do freelance work, ask friends to work with them, no friends? Find friends on Github, and Twitter.

Bonus points:

- Show you care about the company: I used the company's brand font and gradient for in the resume for my name and "Thank You" note.
- Don't list 15 things and libraries you worked with, pick the most related ones to the role you're applying.
-🙅‍♂️"copy cover letter"

"I got no firends, no work"

One practical way is to reach out to conferences and offer to make their website for free. But make sure to do it good. You'll get:

- a project for portfolio
- new friends
- work experience
- learnt new stuff
- new thing for Twitter bio

If you don't even have the skills yet, why not try your chance for @LambdaSchool? No? @freeCodeCamp. Still not? Pick something from here and learn https://t.co/7NPS1zbLTi
You'll feel very overwhelmed, no escape, just acknowledge it and keep pushing.
LIFE
Erik Torenberg
Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg
1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.

Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?
LIFE
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Filippo Valsorda
Filippo Valsorda
@FiloSottile
“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
LIFE
Risktaker\U0001f9b9\U0001f3fd
Risktaker🦹🏽...
@Risk2Earn
10-Life Lessons From The One & Only @naval

~Thread~

“You want to be rich & anonymous... Not poor & famous.”

The goal is to get rich & disappear, not to get noticed!

The problem is that too many people are chasing clout instead of wealth.

Clout is not gonna put food on the table in 5 years. Change your priorities!

“I don’t have time” is just another way of saying, “it’s not a priority”

Being “Too busy” is a myth,

People make time for the things that are important to them.

If you haven’t made enough time then it’s simply because you haven’t convinced yourself it’s a priority.

“Earn with your mind, not with your time”

You’ll never get rich trading your time for money...

Reason being? Because you only have 24 hours in a day & you can’t work non-stop.

Use your mind & money to create a product that will generate you money even while you sleep 🥱

“You can escape competition through authenticity... No one can compete with you on being you”

No 2 humans are exactly the same, there’s something that makes each of us unique.

Find what makes you different & capitalize.

Your biggest competitive advantage is your originality!
LIFE
GREG ISENBERG
GREG ISENBERG
@gregisenberg
Life gets better when:

You understand that grades never mattered but how you grade yourself does

You learn from disagreements, you don't get upset

You keep your private life private

You often have your phone in DND mode
LIFE

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Shaan Puri
Shaan Puri
@ShaanVP
If you're a college student who wants to pay off all your loans... here's an idea for you:

It takes ~$5k to start and will make ~$30k a year of profit

It won't get you rich, it'll pay for college.

(..and will teach them more about business than they’ll learn in school)

The idea isn’t sexy. But it works:

**Plastic Moving Bin Rentals**

Everyone knows moving sucks. The worst part is being stuck with 400 cardboard boxes at the end of your move.

Instead - @benmlevy told me about Gorilla Bins. They dropoff plastic moving bins, & pickem up later.


Let’s break it down. Our goal is to pay for college (~$30k profit per year).

To do that, I think we’ll need $50k in revenue.

The avg move (a 2 bedroom apartment) is $180

To hit our goal, we need do ~5.5 moves per week

COSTS?

How many bins do we need to buy up front?

5.5 moves a week x 50 bins = you need 275 bins. Let’s round up to 300 to be safe.

Ok let’s hop over to @uline to see how much these bins cost

Bingo. Bins cost about $15 a piece.

$15 x 300 bins = $4,500 initial startup costs.

Time to beg your parents or a rich aunt to lend you money to get the biz rolling (...or just take $5k of student loan money and invest it here…)
FINANCE
Brian Cates
Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
A lot of people don't understand that Trump & his incoming team didn't face a normal transition period, like it was over a in a matter of a few weeks or months.

The DOJ transition period JUST ENDED when Sessions left. Almost 2 exact years to get it there.

Pompeo at the CIA took over a year before he was done and ready to shift over to the State Department.

All kinds of stuff has been going on behind the scenes nobody leaks or talks about.

We only had the barest mention of the fact the Clinton Email investigation restarted

Nobody leaked in a year that Huber was deep diving into the Clinton Foundation.
Keep that in mind as all the usual suspects continue to INSIST nothing is happening/going to happen.
POLITICS
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Nick Kapur
Nick Kapur
@nick_kapur
A thread of images from a Japanese illustrated history of America from 1861.

Here is George Washington (with bow and arrow) pictured alongside the Goddess of America. 1/


Here is Christopher Columbus (seated at center) reporting his discovery of America to Queen Isabella of Spain.

So far, kinda normal, but wait for it.... 2/


Now it's the American Revolution. Here is George Washington defending his wife "Carol" from a British official named "Asura" (same characters as the Buddhist deity). 3/


And here is Washington's "second-in-command" John Adams battling an enormous snake. 4/


Here is Washington and his wife "Carol" meeting an extremely youthful Benjamin Franklin, who has an impressive squat. 5/
CULTURE
Sheetal Rijhwani
Sheetal Rijhwani
@RijhwaniSheetal
How you can filter stocks for Intraday trades - 🧵

As a kid, we would do homework before school the next day - you have to do homework here too. A specific sector performs on a particular day and studying things a day before will help you spot that particular sector. (1/11)

To prepare for the next trading day, you got to check the Index charts of all sectors. You got to keep an eye on a specific Index if you see a few factors:

- If any Index closed exactly at the resistance, you can get a trade on either side on the next day. (2/11)

- If it gave a rejection candle at resistance.

- If any Index closed exactly at support, you can get a trade on either side the following day.

- If there was a bullish signal at the support.

- If any Index gave a breakout or breakdown and then gave a good closing. (3/11)

- If any Index has taken support at 50 or 200 EMA.

Once you spot the Index, look at all the stocks in that particular Index. Pick at least 3-4 stocks from that Index and add them to your watchlist for the next day. It's ideal to check both higher and lower timeframes. (4/11)

What you should do next day? (When I am unable to check Indices and stocks a day before, I sometimes directly start with this process.)

- Start with checking the top gainers/losers list. I observe market from 9:15 to 9:45am to check the sectors performing well on that day.(5/11)
SCREENERS , ALL , INTRADAY STRATEGIES
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI KUMARIAMMAN, KANYAKUMARI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

Created by Maharshi Parasurama and also one among the 108 Shakthi Peethas in the world. The name Kanyakumari stands for Kanya(Virgin) and Kumari(girl).
Devi took this form to vanquish the demon Banasura
@GunduHuDuGa


Once, Banasura(grand son of Mahabali) obtained a boon from Shiva that he could be vanquished only by a virgin.
So, Devi took the form of a kumari and started meditating with the desire to marry Shiva at Suchindram.
Pleased Shiva fixed the midnight hour for marriage with Devi.


Devarshi Narada knew that the marriage would end the chance of killing Banasura. So, he assumed the form of a cock and crowed. Shiva returned back to Suchindram thinking that it was dawn.
Angered, Devi cursed that all food and articles meant for wedding turn into sand and shells


When Banasura heard about Devi’s beauty, he tried to take her by force. Devi, then, killed him and granted the wish of Devas to remain there always protecting them.
The murti of Devi stands with a rosary in hand. Her diamond nose-ring is said to be visible even from the sea.


Once an ancient mariner mistook it for a lighthouse and sailing towards it, his ship wrecked upon the Kanya Kumari rocks. In order to prevent such a tragedy from happening again, the eastern door of the shrine is opened only on five special occasions throughout the year.
ALL