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Travis
@coloradotravis 2 years, 5 months ago 469 views

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It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/

So what's the best way to do that?

Well you turn around to the staff that remains and you reallocate some of that capital to them (boost their comp) and tell them their jobs are safe but you need them bolted in for battle.

You give them raises.
/6

More from Travis

Travis
@coloradotravis

@evan_lorenz Exactly this.

Plus in a gold-based system, smaller entities (SMBs or sole proprietors) could presumably even self-custody to reduce the carrying cost of gold to zero.

This is not possible with bitcoin, in which one owns a share of a collective and equally distributed liability.

The hilarity of all this, to me, is that Bitcoin makes the most sense if viewed as a Marxist worker’s rebellion.

The central promise is UBI: buy tokens that increase in value forever, granting you wealth for doing nothing.

And the cost is the future.

Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

After much investigation and conversations with people on here, I’ve formed a relatively robust theory of what may be happening with Tether.

This thread will attempt to lay it out with neutral language for the purpose of discussion.
1/

Before we start, please note that ‘robust’ doesn’t mean ‘accurate’, it just means that:

1. the theory is internally consistent
2. it accounts for participant behavior

…but it’s important to remember that this is still hypothesis-stage thinking.
2/

First, let us note that the BTC ecosystem has clearly stated goals. They believe that:

1. Bitcoin is a new global reserve money.
2. They intend to create an alternative financial system around it.

Let’s just take them at their word and assume that’s directionally accurate.
3/

Next, a postulate: most people do not understand the current monetary system very well. This is exemplified by the “BRRR” meme and other variants of thinking which presume that the Fed prints money.

That’s not how the system actually works, as discussed elsewhere.
4/

In reality, what’s happening with the Fed is a bit more subtle and involves various forms of duration swaps and clerical activities that the populace at large gives more credence than those activities actually deserve.

Money is very complex.
5/

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Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

What are prices?

A layperson’s guide to understanding charts and volatility.
1/

It’s an observable fact that price has nothing to do with value. Perhaps over the long term these two converge, but in the short term it makes no sense that the price of, say, soybeans would change 3-4% from day to day.

So what’s happening?
2/

You’ve probably heard people say “markets are forward looking” and that’s sorta true, I guess.

But that doesn’t mean they’re any good at it.

It might be better to say “markets consistently attempt to look forward” because that would be more illustrative of what’s happening.
3/

When a day-over-day price makes a 3% move this is not a 3% shift in value, it’s a 3% shift in *aggregate expectations about future value.*

And that makes sense, right? Expectations are pretty ephemeral so they can move fast.
4/

Consider volatility through this same lens. When a market is highly volatile, this means that expectations about forward value are evolving rapidly.

This happened in March when everyone got scared about Covid - it broke people’s forward expectations, and thus broke markets.
5/

Travis
@coloradotravis

QE, Liquidity Removal, and the Alchemy of Money

I’ve been watching @MetreSteven say stuff like “QE removes liquidity” on here for a while after which people sort of stare blankly or roll their eyes.

Let’s give it one more go, via a traditionally quirky explainer.
1/

At the heart of every monetary system is an act of alchemy.

Let us start by describing this act: the act of monetary creation.

At the center of alchemy lies the Philosopher's Stone - the prime reagent for money creation.

For a long time this was gold.
2/

For if you had gold, you could lend against it.

From the Philosopher's stone of gold, we could spawn two things:

1. Circulating money
2. Debt

Money and debt are twins, both born of the philosopher's stone and their fates forever linked.
3/

For you see, there are rules which govern alchemy.

An alchemist is only allowed to create a certain amount of money for each philosopher's stone.

And the Debt was greater than the Money (due to interest), making the system inherently deflationary.
4/

And this deflationary nature drove the people to want more money in circulation.

So the rules of alchemy were evolved to allow each stone to create more money (fractional reserve banking).
5/

Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

Let’s talk about money and the State (Sovereign).

Since everyone constantly gets this wrong.
1/

So look: there never was a barter-centric state of nature.

That’s a nice story but when we look at the historical record, it’s just flat out false.

In point of fact:

- Debt predates money.
- Money predates barter.
2/

The way the Sovereign first got involved with debt was something like this:

King: “If you don’t give me 3 goats during harvest season, my soldiers will come burn your fucking house down.”

And in this way, the King originated a debt.

By fiat.
3/

But moving goats around sucks (horrible creatures) and is just sort of logistically annoying, so a new plan was devised, like this:

King: “Same deal with the soldiers and the burning and the profanity, but now it’s 50 pieces of silver instead of goats.”

Presto! Money!
4/

Money is a token that settles debts - always has been. The reason it’s useful is because it allows society to function like an abacus with N players.

In lieu of just the sovereign playing debt, these tokens are ‘debt settlement bearer assets’ which allow…well... the economy
5/

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George Mack
@george__mack

THREAD: 15 of the most useful razors and rules I've found.

Rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

Bezos' Razors:

• If unsure what action to take, let your 80-year-old self make it.

• If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.

Skinner's Law:

• If procrastinating on an item, you only have 2 options:

1. Make the pain of not doing it greater than the pain of doing it.

2. Make the pleasure of doing it greater than the pleasure of not doing it.

Luck Razor:

• If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix.

In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.

Bragging Razor:

• If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.

• If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim.

The map is not the terrain.

James Hanson
@jameshanson87

$CCIV / LUCID MOTORS

DD Thread ⤵️

The $CCIV leadership team:

I will highlight who I believe are the key players.

Starting with Sir Jony Ive, who was the Chief Design Officer at Apple Inc for over 20 years. (Connections to Apple are never a bad thing..)

Andrew Leveris is the former CEO of The Dow Chemical company who also just happens to be a board member of, you guessed it - Lucid Motors, further supporting SPAC rumors.

As the former CEO of Ford, Mulally brings a wealth of motor industry experience to Churchill Capital and Lucid Motors.

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GREG ISENBERG
@gregisenberg

I interviewed 5 billionaires this week

I asked them to share their lessons learned on startups, life and entrepreneurship:

Here's what they told me:

A startup idea isn't "one" idea

It's a 10000 ideas, 100,000 decisions and 1,000,000 headaches

You will lose some friends. Kiss most of your high school friends goodbye

Certainties of life:

- Death
- Taxes
- Losing friends

A sign of wealth:

No longer needing an alarm clock to wake up

When in doubt, please don't send that angry email response

Wait 24h. Go for a walk

Angriness makes you drunk. Send emails sobers

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

I own 7 stocks that are 15+ baggers (and counting)

Here are 10 traits they all have in common:

The data:

Stock / # of bags / purchase year:

$AMZN / 15+ / 2010
$FB / 15+ / 2012
$GOOG / 15+ / 2009
$MELI / 15+ / 2011
$CMG / 20+ / 2012
$NFLX / 60+ / 2010
$TSLA / 60+ / 2012

1: Founder-led

$AMZN - Bezos
$CMG - Ells
$FB- Zuck
$GOOG - Page
$MELI- Galperin
$NFLX - Hastings
$TSLA - Musk

Founders tend to be:
+Detail oriented
+Innovative
+Mission driven
+Think long-term
+Have skin/soul in the game

Look for founders!

2: Consumer-facing

All of these companies attract millions/billions of consumers

This eliminates customer concentration risk and enables long-term brand building

3: High sales growth

All of these companies were growing revenue 20%+ BEFORE I bought them

Sales growth is the engine that drives profit growth

Profit growth is the engine that drives stock appreciation

Find companies that can grow sales 20%+ for decades

Camino Mortera
@CaminoMortera

There is a world shortage of chocolate. People are dying because they do not eat enough chocolate. A company, AstraChocolate, one of the few companies that knows how to manufacture chocolate bars, enters into contracts with governments worldwide. 1/

Most of these governments agree to fund AstraChocolate's efforts to research and secure production of highly nutritient chocolate bars. In exchange, AC promises it will deliver X chocolate bars per day to governments once they are produced. 2/

Because edible, safe, chocolate bars need to be approved by national and international regulators, their production and manufacturing takes a while. To ensure a smooth supply chain, AC and other similar companies use factories all around the world. 3/

In Europe, AC uses mainly three manufacturing sites: one in the UK, one in Germany and one in Belgium. In its dealings with governments, AC has promised to deliver 500m of chocolate bars to the EU and 100m to the UK by March 2021. 4/

Now this is a mighty task and there are bumps along the way. Nobody has ever produced edible, safe, super-nutrient chocolate bars at that speed and under that much public scrutiny. So AC and other, similar companies, like Cfacao-BionChoc run into some supply problems. 5/

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But in due course the falsehood of killing cows spread far and wide and they became even more deep rooted when western scholars with their half baked knowledge of Sanskrit transliterated these interpretations of commentaries of Sayanacharya ,

Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

KANAKA DURGAMMA, VIJAYWADA (AP)
#bharatmandir

Ma Kanakadurgeswari is the supreme Goddess of Andhra Pradesh, seated atop the Indrakilaparvatha at Vijayawada.
This area is called Bezawada as Shiva made a bejjam (hole) in the rocks so that Krishna river could flow freely.

Once, a Rishi Indra Keela prayed to Devi and asked her to reside on his head forever. Devi told him to wait in the form of a mountain in the holy plains of River Krishna.
Later, when Devi killed all demons, she settled on Keeladri as Mahishasura Mardini and fulfilled his wish.

In this place, Arjuna performed penance and fought with Shiva, who had appeared in the guise of Kiratha to win Pasupathastra, the most powerful weapon. So this place is also called phalguna theertha and Vijaywada on account of Arjun’s victory.

Adi Sankaracharya visited this shrine and worshipped the Devi. He installed SRICHAKRAM at the feet of Sri Kanaka Durga.

Adjacent to the Kanakadurga shrine is the shrine of the divine consort-Sri Malleswara Swamy on the Indrakeeladri.

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श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89

#Thread
Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n

iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n

There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n

But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n

There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n

Reshu Nath
@ReshuNath

'Tera mera rishta kya, hindu, hindu,hindutva' is a clear take on 'tera mera rishta kya,la ilaha illallah'. As much as Hindutva hates the monotheistic religions especially Islam, there's a strange wistfulness and subliminal need at display now, to BE that they hate. 1

Charlie Hebdo doesn’t come up as a cautionary tale now but rather 'why cant we be like that'?
Growing up, Hanuman was an adorable deity for us, who swallowed the sun, or who couldn’t figure out what was Sanjeevani booti so he picked up a whole mountain and came back with it. 2

Or he was loyal, admirable and when he cleaved his chest, you saw both Ram and Sita. Now we have a lot of “Angry Hanuman” stickers. Why is a cute childlike God angry? We don’t know. It's a convenient blank space where to paint all the angst of Hindu Khatre mein hain narrative. 3

The other strange thing that has started happening is pictures of Ram appearing sans Sita. “Jai Siya Ram” has become “Jai Shri Ram”. Some people disingenuously explain it as being the same thing - because Shri is a name of Lakshmi. Not really. Siya is an apbhransh of Sita. 4

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Mo Rajabifard
@morajabi

👨‍💻 Last resume I sent to a startup one year ago, sharing with you to get ideas:

- Forget what you don't have, make your strength bold
- Pick one work experience and explain what you did in detail w/ bullet points
- Write it towards the role you apply
- Give social proof

/thread

"But I got no work experience..."

Make a open source lib, make a small side project for yourself, do freelance work, ask friends to work with them, no friends? Find friends on Github, and Twitter.

Bonus points:

- Show you care about the company: I used the company's brand font and gradient for in the resume for my name and "Thank You" note.
- Don't list 15 things and libraries you worked with, pick the most related ones to the role you're applying.
-🙅‍♂️"copy cover letter"

"I got no firends, no work"

One practical way is to reach out to conferences and offer to make their website for free. But make sure to do it good. You'll get:

- a project for portfolio
- new friends
- work experience
- learnt new stuff
- new thing for Twitter bio

If you don't even have the skills yet, why not try your chance for @LambdaSchool? No? @freeCodeCamp. Still not? Pick something from here and learn https://t.co/7NPS1zbLTi
You'll feel very overwhelmed, no escape, just acknowledge it and keep pushing.