BC LIFE
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Thread: People love to rag on Nate Silver for his arrogance & they should, but he's merely an example of a larger issue that the web has made it easy to draw inferences from data without knowing the context in which it lives. 1/x

 Alexander Pope's warning that "a little learning is a dangerous thing" has never been more true than an age in which we can obtain information about anything without being able to understand it.

Having data doesn't mean you can use it.
Western society has a very significant problem that expertise in one area is often conflated with expertise in others.

Men are the main culprit. We have been socialized to think we know more than we do. There are many studies showing this. Here's one: https://t.co/aVCbNTc0n6
Not only do men think we're smarter than we are, we also overestimate our own attractiveness: https://t.co/Ue7RRMR0ZB
Male overconfidence has lots of negative implications for society. The biggest is that too many men in media have amassed followings by speaking confidently about subjects they don't understand.

Nate Silver finds Donald Trump appalling, but his shtick isn't all that different.
The national media environment is heavily biased toward male overconfidence and it's a huge part of why U.S. politics are so toxic.

Instead of seeking to educate or to understand, media outlets seek conflict and debate. This influences our politics.
The numbers are undeniable that women have consistently been excluded from American political media. This was true in 2013: https://t.co/aqaKolF6XV

And also in 2016: https://t.co/2rzc7m66QK
Black, Hispanic, & Asian women are especially unrepresented in media. As my good friend @joliartist has noted, women of color are almost invisible in visual art. She's been spending the last several years making wonderful paintings to remedy this in part. https://t.co/w3CcOZVGoM
There are so many terrible second-order effects of how the media treat women's voices that we're now dealing with. 1) There's now a growing movement of "incel" men who refuse to date within their attractiveness level and instead lash out, sometimes violently, at women.
2) Research has consistently shown that women are more religious than men but media coverage of faith overwhelmingly focuses on male fundamentalists rather than the more peaceful and moderate approaches taken by women religious leaders. This is radicalizing Christian men.
3) America's inability to help boys and men have more realistic and inclusive perspectives has also made it harder for men to handle adversity. Men are less likely to welcome each other, to seek mental health, or to re-think when in trouble. It's increasing deaths of despair.
During a pandemic and economic stagnation, many men are facing it alone and are afraid to ask for help. Many don't even know that they should or that they can get it. This is terrible.
In conclusion, while it's fun to crack jokes at Nate Silver's expense, I hope we can see the larger picture.

And someone, please hire Nate's former colleague, the very talented @ClareMalone.

Thanks for reading. If you'd like to follow or retweet this, that would be just great.

More from Matthew Sheffield

Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield
Thread: Rush Limbaugh and the conservative Id

On the day of his passing, it's worth doing a brief retrospective on how Rush Limbaugh's personal life almost perfectly paralleled American conservatism...

One thing that's not commonly known about Rush Limbaugh is that he began his career in sports, doing sales for the Kansas City Royals baseball team. That's significant because much of the tribalism and dumbed-down rhetoric in American TV news directly came from sports media.

Television journalism in its earliest days was a fantastic product with real investigative reporting, no filibustering live interviews, and no soundbites. This began changing in the 1970s when ABC Sports president Roone Arledge was put in charge of ABC News.

Limbaugh tried to be a conventional FM deejay but kept getting fired because his personality was too abrasive. After working with the Royals, he began a small political talk show for a Sacremento station. The Reagan repeal of the Fairness Doctrine made his show possible.

Rush Limbaugh's Sacramento show started in 1984 (he replaced Morton Downey Jr) and after 5 years, he was picked up by ABC Radio which was trying to copy some of the sensationalism that ABC News television had started. It was a perfect fit.
SOCIETY
Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield
For the past 6 years, I & a few other journalists have been trying to get the mainstream press and political elites realize the major danger posed by the radical right. Unfortunately, moderate and liberal elites deluded themselves into thinking that conservatism wasn't a cult.

There is no secretly powerful "Republican establishment" that will fix things. There are thugs, deluded people, and there are quislings. There is no one else in the GOP. Instead of focusing on the radical right's danger, editors wanted stories about Trump tweets.

Instead of calling out the dangerous radicalism of the GOP, television debate shows and opinion pages invited the enablers of fascism to speak and write about how we all needed to give powerful insane people the benefit of the doubt.

Unlike Trump, who walled off the White House months ago into a fortress, Nancy Pelosi did not take the terrorist threat seriously enough to demand better security. She has the budget and the authority and did nothing similar. Now, fascists are on the floor of Congress.

Of course, it is Trump who bears the responsibility for this but the Capitol Police have totally disgraced themselves by not fortifying the building the way that the Secret Service did to the WH.

This is the view of numerous congressional staffers of both parties.
JOURNALISM
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Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield
Thread: Meaning and loss in American conservatism

I've written a lot about how Christian supremacism (expressed and implicit) is the underlying objective of most Trump supporters but the psychology of American conservatism is very important in its descent into madness.

We're seeing it manifested heavily in the present moment as Trump and his followers are forced to contemplate the loss of the presidency but it's important to realize that losing is the psychic core of the U.S. right.

Trump's repugnant demeanor and prior history of political moderation is what made him so reviled by conservative activists and donors in 2015 but his angry victim complex so deeply resonated with the GOP base that this is why he won the primary.

American conservatism has been obsessed with death and loss since it emerged in the 1940s. The utter humiliation of Herbert Hoover and the rapid growth of federal spending and regulation under FDR was an existential moment for the corporate barons who started the U.S. right.

The rise of explicitly atheist Marxist-Leninism was also immensely triggering of long-time fundamentalist fantasies of persecution and death before the return of Christ. Most Christians don't see John's Apocalypse as a literal text but fundamentalists do.
GOVERNMENT
Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield
Conservatives love to complain that everyone is against them: professors, journalists, intelligence officers, social media companies, and so on.

I used to as well until I considered that maybe having problems with everyone else isn't their fault, it's yours.

I was reminded of that realization when I read this important NYT article about how Facebook keeps weakening news source quality controls because conservative content gets disproportionately effected by them.

Unfortunately, this great piece of reporting by @MikeIsaac, @sheeraf, & @kevinroose didn't mention the greatest challenge in AI news signal processing: Humans can barely separate conservative & far-right content. Which means computers can't either.

This techno-semiotic conundrum originates from the fact that in the US, because there is no moderate conservative tradition, the gravitational center of the right is far removed from the political center.

More plainly, this means that almost all the energy and organizing on the right exists on the far right.

This is not the case on the US left where there is a strong moderate tradition capable of organization and force projection. Ask Bernie Sanders if you disbelieve.
POLITICS
Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield
Thread: Conservative Policy and the Trump Presidency

On the last full day of the Trump administration, I think it's useful to examine why he accomplished so little legislatively. TLDR version: American conservatism has almost no policy program.

The most important thing to know about conservative politicking is that people do not vote FOR Republicans, they vote AGAINST Democrats.

The GOP is dominated by a minority of far-right activists and wealthy donors who have views that their own voters don't support.

American conservatism is premised on the twin ideas that the New Deal & Great Society were immoral and that God himself created America and that we should honor this creation by establishing full Christian supremacism in which LGBT people, atheists, and Muslims have fewer rights.

Because God created America, this means that conservatives believe in essentially no domestic policy of any kind. If it wasn't literally in the Constitution, then the feds shouldn't be doing it is their opinion.

This is not, however, how things used to be in the GOP.

For much of its history, American conservatism was a sort of intellectual parasite on the Republican party which was run by a mix of moderates and liberals. They actually had domestic policies. Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon had many policies that actually helped America.
TRUMP

More from Life

Filippo Valsorda
Filippo Valsorda
@FiloSottile
“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
LIFE
\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
The Transition from the old to the new.

The QFS is alive and doing its snoopy thing, but it is not yet active with accounts. How is the old going to transition to the new? This is a good question./1

The QFS must be active when the RV/Redemption takes place because all RV and Redemption funds will be placed in the QFS as gold-back currencies in the currency of the nation where the RV or the Redemption takes place./2

This is the Global Currency Reset that all countries will go through when the funds are released. The RV funds are released and deposited into QFS accounts as gold-backed currencies; thus the Global Currency Reset./3

Keep in mind that this Global Currency Reset means the world has reset their currencies to the whole new system of finance for the world.
There will be no fanfare or public announcement when the QFS is activated./4

There are those in the financial industry who will know or suspect that the QFS has been turned on but there will be very few “tells” that it has been activated and fully functioning. The alliance wants this to be seamless./5
LIFE
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Robert Frank
Robert Frank
@Robertfrank615
Years ago I would troll CrossFit/Planet Fitness until I got bored with it and created the “Car Rage” guy. People would say, stop screaming in your car and go back to trolling CrossFit. I didn’t listen.

After screaming in my car for 3 years I started doing other shit......

.... like MeatHead Minutes, Hater Dance Videos, Macho Man impersonations, Podcasting, exposing the hypocrisy of BLM, doing Live Streams nightly on YouTube, etc. People would say, stop doing this other shit and go back to screaming in your car. I didn’t listen....

.... my FB page has grown over 176k new followers since my first George Floyd video in June and all I really post about is current event shit. I posted a “Car Rage” video yesterday and people are saying, stop screaming in your car and go back to talking about politics......

.... moral of this cool story bro is the BEST thing I ever did, is not listen to what anyone told me to do. Be you.
LIFE
Colin Mills
Colin Mills
@OxSoc
I want to tell you a story. It illustrates the low level, but unpleasant hassle faced by academics holding views deemed unacceptable by self-appointed defenders of public safety. I'm not going to name names. I'm not interested in facilitating a pile on. The abused is>>

robust and capable of looking after themself. I was sent a screenshot of the abuser's protected twitter narration of the incident. I've also seen it tweeted on here. I've no idea how it was leaked. I've not seen its authenticity challenged. >>

So to the tale. Dr X organizes a seminar with a symposium panel under the auspices of a Faculty in a large well known UK university. Dr Y who is a member of the university with a legitimate interest in the subject matter of the panel registers to >

attend. Y is known to hold what for sake of succinctness I'll call Gender Critical views. X notices shortly before the seminar is to begin that Y will be in attendance and goes into meltdown. Y is deemed an "anti-trans campaigner" which in the commonly accepted >>

rather than Pickwickian sense of these words is false. X contemplates a last minute cancellation of the event. Hurried discussions are held with senior faculty and eventually with the VC who insists the event must take place and Y must be allowed to attend. The event takes place>
LIFE
The Stoic Empire
The Stoic Empire
@TheStoicEmpire
//Thread of wisdom//

The modern mind is overstimulated and the modern body is under stimulated and overfed. Meditation, exercise, and fasting restore an ancient balance.

~ @naval

Retweet to add another.

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him.

~ Galileo Galilei

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool.

~ Richard Feynman

Your best work involves timing. If someone wrote the best hip hop song of all time in the Middle Ages, he had bad timing.

~ @ScottAdamsSays

When you are content to be simply yourself and don't compare or compete, everyone will respect you.

~ Lao Tzu
LIFE

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Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.


1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in *almost every single particular*—it just *also* happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.

2/ The basics: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE all view Iran as their chief regional enemy. Iran is propped up by Russia. Therefore the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis all need a US government willing to find a way to get the Kremlin to *stop* supporting Iran in the Middle East.

3/ The best way to get Russia to stop supporting Iran—or reduce support—was/is to drop all sanctions on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea, as that'd be worth *trillions* to the Kremlin over the next decade. Everyone knew that Clinton wouldn't do this—and that Trump would.

4/ Per the NYT, on August 3, 2016, Donald Trump Jr. met secretly at Trump Tower with a Saudi and Emirati emissary, George Nader, as well as an Israeli intelligence expert, Joel Zamel, with *significant* ties to both Israeli intelligence *and* Russian oligarchs allied with Putin.
POLITICS
Nick Kapur
Nick Kapur
@nick_kapur
A thread of images from a Japanese illustrated history of America from 1861.

Here is George Washington (with bow and arrow) pictured alongside the Goddess of America. 1/


Here is Christopher Columbus (seated at center) reporting his discovery of America to Queen Isabella of Spain.

So far, kinda normal, but wait for it.... 2/


Now it's the American Revolution. Here is George Washington defending his wife "Carol" from a British official named "Asura" (same characters as the Buddhist deity). 3/


And here is Washington's "second-in-command" John Adams battling an enormous snake. 4/


Here is Washington and his wife "Carol" meeting an extremely youthful Benjamin Franklin, who has an impressive squat. 5/
CULTURE
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sriram
sriram
@SriramKannan77
Sri Varaha Charama Shlokam

sthithE manasi susvasthE sarIrE sathi yO nara:
dhAthusAmyE sthithE smarthA visvarUpam cha maamajam (1)

tathastham mriyamANam thu kAshtA paashaNa sannibham
aham smarAmi madh bhaktham nayAmi paramAm gathim (2)


Meaning:

Oh Bhumi Devi! The entire universe is my body (sarIram).
I do not have births or deaths .

When my bhakthAs with mahA visvAsam (utmost faith) surrender to me, while they are still in a state of tranquil mind and healthy body and reflect about Me as as SarvAdharan (root cause
of all),
NiyanthA (One who commands from within),
sarva sEshi (the ultimate),

aasrayaNeeyan (One who is fit to be worshipped),
Sarva VyApthan (all-pervasive) and
Nithya sannihithan (One who is always near),
THEN
I think of them at their last moments, when they are totally unconscious like a log or a stone
and lead them by archirAdhi

maargam to My parama padham and bless them to have nithya kaimkarya bhAgyam to Me there.
ALL
Patrick Chovanec
Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):


The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹


Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹


References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
CULTURE
Suchi Sharma
Suchi Sharma
@Suchi_sharma_
#THREAD
1.Meenakshi Amman Temple(472ft High)also called as Meenakshi Sundareswarar is a famous Hindu temple located on the southern bank of Vaigai River in temple city of Madurai, #TamilNadu.It is dedicated to Parvati(Meenakshi)& her consort Shiva(Sundareswarar). @LostTemple7


2.Madurai Meenakshi Sundareswarar temple was built by King Kulasekara Pandya (1190-1216 CE).This popular temple visits over 15000 visitors daily & around 25000 on #Friday !Friday sees the most number of devotees visit the temple with the number going as high as +25,000.


3.Meenakshi Temple also hosts an annual festival called Meenakshi Thirukalayanam that is held in April. A celestial wedding of the god and goddess marks the end of the festival. About 1 million devotees visit the temple during this festival.


4.the temple has been tagged as one of the seven wonders of India along with stunning Architecture.The temple is built using Dravidian South Indian style of architecture, and is one of the most impressive temple structures in South India.


5.The principle deity here is MEENAKSHI, a form of Goddess Parvati. The idol of the goddess is carved in emerald hued stone. The Meenakshi idol has 3 breasts as Meenakshi was born with three breasts and was blessed that the 3rd breast would vanish once meets right man of her life
HISTORY