BC HEALTH
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1. Some thoughts about picking over the bones of the referendum loss.

TLDR - get over it, move on, and most importantly, find a better strategy.

 2. From an analytical perspective, I don’t think there’s much point in constantly assessing the referendum.
3. The answer is either so simple as to be banal (bad campaign etc) or too complicated (deep rooted societal roots etc) as not to provide any simple lessons. In any case, the result was very close.
4. Rather than dwell on the past, live in the future. Influencing what happens next is much more important than focusing on historic defeat.
5. You don’t see current Brexiteers lamenting the woeful state of their plans do you?
6. For a start, you aren’t remainers any more (and leavers aren’t leavers), you are people who passionately support ongoing close relations with Europe.

You are the Sensibles.
7. Considering the challenge ahead, you might think about it like this.
8. The competition between the intellectual arguments for remain and leave has (so far) been soundly won by the former.

In terms of process and economics it’s no competition.

And in terms of sovereignty, well, you can’t eat sovereignty.
9. But clearly note that Remainers lost every single important domestic political election. You can blame who you want (Jeremy Corbyn, FPTP etc) but the stone cold reality is Remainers got beat at the referendum and trounced in the December 2019 election.
10. On each occasion, Leavers devised and prosecuted a strategy that won.

It is true that those victories were founded on a series of gross untruths
11. But that doesn’t seem to matter in the very narrow but critical sense of who is in power and makes the decisions.
12. Leavers have demonstrated that a political philosophy of by any democratic means necessary is how you win the day.
13. The Sensibles might take a leaf from their book. Be as focused and as calculating, be as determined and be as ruthless.
14. And if you are, as the disaster unfolds, in slow motion or otherwise, you might be surprised by what you achieve.

Brexit isn’t going away and neither are you.

/ends

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Typically excellent piece from @dsquareddigest The exponential insight is especially neat. Think of it a little like fishing...today you can’t export oysters to the EU (because you simply aren’t allowed to), tomorrow you don’t have a fish exporting business (to the EU).


The extremely small minority of people who known anything about this who think that Brexit will be good for the City make a number of arguments which I shall address in turn...

1. They need us more than we need them. This is a variant of the German carmakers argument. And we know how that went...Business will follow the profit opportunity and if that has moved then so will the business...

And what do we mean by us / we. We’re not talking about massed ranks of Euro investing / trading etc blue blooded British institutions.

Au contraire. We’re talking about the London based subs of US, Asian and indeed European capital markets players...As soon as they think the profit opportunity has moved then so will they...it’s a market innit...
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@Sime0nStylites
1. Brexit. Like Christmas with Covid or dunking your head in a bucket of ice cold water or running your toes over with a lawnmower. What fun we did not have. But here we all are. Forced to play the worst ever drunken party game.

THREAD

2. So as we while away our time, whooping it up from lockdown, wondering at the next national crisis, let us ponder this week’s existential question: how can a Brexit deal be so close and yet so far away?

3. Is it close? Is it far away? Are we doomed or saved? And even if we’re saved are we in fact doomed?

It’s all too much. Like playing zenga with no twig things or scrabble with no letters. My head is spinning. Pass me the whisky and egg my nog.

4. To generalize (why not, everyone else does) Brexit commentary tends to fall into two illustrious camps both full of the wisest of sages.

5. The first reflects upon Mr Johnson’s character and political track record, the many hard as you like pronouncements emanating from various government orifices and the most peculiar composition of the Conservative Party, to arrive at an understandably unhappy conclusion.
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@Sime0nStylites
I tend to agree with this - of course many things can still go wrong...but (certainly on the UK side) as the list of outstanding issues decreases and as the cost of no deal becomes more apparent deal momentum will increase.


I find it most amusing that people invest so much value in public statements, briefings, tabloid headlines, the tweets of obscure backbenchers etc. Cherchez les fundamentals!

There is a deep vein of analytical pessimism in one particular direction, which, whether correct or not, is noteworthy. On the one hand, a firm belief in the fundamentals - gravity exists - but on the other hand those fundamentals are not meaningful to the final decision.

But gravity does exist! Whether one likes it or not. We do not have wings. Or feathers. And the realisation of the fundamentals will impact the political calculation (though timing differences may apply).

You don’t have to invest any particular optimism or see any virtue in the principal players to make this point.
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@Sime0nStylites
Along the way I wrote about considering Johnson’s Brexit decision as a choice between clichéd narratives. What would read / play best? Well...


It is absolutely no surprise to me that he ended up choosing the ending that would most easily portray him as the hero who saved the day.

The tricky part of this narrative is convincing re the ‘not giving in’ part. Hence all the bluster about standing tough and being happy to walk away.

And yet.

I’m old enough to remember when we wouldn’t accept any LPF provisions, any state aid constraints and we wanted all our fish back right now. Otherwise it’s an ‘Australia’ style Brexit.
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Yet Another Columnist
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@Sime0nStylites
One wonders how long Lord Frost will retain his new position. The personnel decisions made by the PM are nothing if not frequent, ruthless and mercurial.

The whole affair is very curious. While I am sure that Lord Frost’s elevation owes much to his relationship with the PM and the perceived success of the Brexit negotiation, it is very curious indeed that allegedly it took a threat to resign to secure this new role.

A role which is needed (although might have been structured differently) but was to a large effect previously undertaken (with reasonable success) by Michael Gove who one might imagine may not be entirely happy with this diminishment of his responsibilities.

What might have happened to have resulted in this dramatic and to some extent destructive move (which appears to have been played out in the context of a wider struggle that saw Oliver Lewis (previously Lord Frost’s (LF) negotiation deputy)?

The original sin, of course, is the agreement to the Northern Ireland Protocol. Who knows who did what to who or thought what about what but my speculation is the PM either did not understand the consequences of the Protocol or was assured they could be successfully addressed.
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Remember woman who tuk multiple @SriSriTattva products 4 range of problems frm diabetes 2 gas 2 liver disease & developed liver failure, listed for liver transplant?
Here is original thread:
https://t.co/PXxI1Slyv2
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#MedTwitter #livertwitter


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How did we analyse?
Here R links 2 methods
They R high end, done under strict protocols
Frm Ministry of Forest, Environment, Climate / NABL approvd Lab
ICP-OES https://t.co/O1CLhqVQAu
GC MSMS https://t.co/zRJoXyWQIr
FTIR https://t.co/goAembQ08p
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Sample names written on top (each column).
First 5 samples: C what we identified in #Ayurveda #medicines
Antibiotics
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Heavy metals!


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Rare metals - cobalt, lithium
Again lots of blood thinners
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I was diagnosed w/ ADHD when I was 7. And in so many ways it’s been a blessing. I love my energy, the hyper-focus, the calm I feel in chaos, the ability to & feel emotions so intensely. It’s allowed me to to see the world differently be in a constant state of wonder.(2)

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1/23 We haven't had a lot to celebrate during this pandemic. But achieving the milestone of offering vaccine to the over 70s, health and care workers and the most clinically vulnerable just before target date is a huge cause for celebration, given the scale of the achievement.

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Entry time : 9.30 - 10
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