Typically excellent piece from @dsquareddigest The exponential insight is especially neat. Think of it a little like fishing...today you can’t export oysters to the EU (because you simply aren’t allowed to), tomorrow you don’t have a fish exporting business (to the EU).
London's status as a financial centre isn't as secure as some might think | Dan Davies https://t.co/q9SU7ra4oF
— The Guardian (@guardian) February 13, 2021
I refer you to Brexit. But kidding aside, the balance between economic optimality and, to coin a phrase, taking back control is not at all straightforward.
I refer you to the financial crisis.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Well. Maybe. London has a v substantial scale / incumbency advantage. But ofc (as Dan points out) that does not mean that those new opportunities will necessarily arise in London.
More from Yet Another Columnist
I tend to agree with this - of course many things can still go wrong...but (certainly on the UK side) as the list of outstanding issues decreases and as the cost of no deal becomes more apparent deal momentum will increase.
I find it most amusing that people invest so much value in public statements, briefings, tabloid headlines, the tweets of obscure backbenchers etc. Cherchez les fundamentals!
There is a deep vein of analytical pessimism in one particular direction, which, whether correct or not, is noteworthy. On the one hand, a firm belief in the fundamentals - gravity exists - but on the other hand those fundamentals are not meaningful to the final decision.
But gravity does exist! Whether one likes it or not. We do not have wings. Or feathers. And the realisation of the fundamentals will impact the political calculation (though timing differences may apply).
You don’t have to invest any particular optimism or see any virtue in the principal players to make this point.
Still, he's taken a very big step back now. The cliff risk was today; both sides were so close to the edge they could easily have gone over it. The fact @10DowningStreet didn't means Govt must genuinely believe there's now a landing zone that works, & which it can sell ENDS
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) December 13, 2020
I find it most amusing that people invest so much value in public statements, briefings, tabloid headlines, the tweets of obscure backbenchers etc. Cherchez les fundamentals!
There is a deep vein of analytical pessimism in one particular direction, which, whether correct or not, is noteworthy. On the one hand, a firm belief in the fundamentals - gravity exists - but on the other hand those fundamentals are not meaningful to the final decision.
But gravity does exist! Whether one likes it or not. We do not have wings. Or feathers. And the realisation of the fundamentals will impact the political calculation (though timing differences may apply).
You don’t have to invest any particular optimism or see any virtue in the principal players to make this point.
A quote from this excellent piece, neatly summarising a core impact of Brexit.
The Commission’s view, according to several sources, is that Brexit means existing distribution networks and supply chains are now defunct and will have to be replaced by other systems.
Of course, this was never written on the side of a bus. And never acknowledged by government. Everything was meant to be broadly fine apart from the inevitable teething problems.
It was, however, visible from space to balanced observers. You did not have to be a trade specialist to understand that replacing the Single Market with a third country trade arrangement meant the end of many if not all of the complex arrangements optimised for the former.
In the absence of substantive mitigations, the Brexit winners are those who subscribe to some woolly notion of ‘sovereignty’ and those who did not like freedom of movement. The losers are everyone else.
But, of course, that’s not good enough. For understandable reasons Brexit was sold as a benefit not a cost. The trading benefits of freedom would far outweigh the costs. Divergence would benefit all.
The Commission’s view, according to several sources, is that Brexit means existing distribution networks and supply chains are now defunct and will have to be replaced by other systems.
Brexit reality bites: The new dawn of trade friction via @RTENews https://t.co/p6VdlhZUAN
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) January 9, 2021
Of course, this was never written on the side of a bus. And never acknowledged by government. Everything was meant to be broadly fine apart from the inevitable teething problems.
It was, however, visible from space to balanced observers. You did not have to be a trade specialist to understand that replacing the Single Market with a third country trade arrangement meant the end of many if not all of the complex arrangements optimised for the former.
In the absence of substantive mitigations, the Brexit winners are those who subscribe to some woolly notion of ‘sovereignty’ and those who did not like freedom of movement. The losers are everyone else.
But, of course, that’s not good enough. For understandable reasons Brexit was sold as a benefit not a cost. The trading benefits of freedom would far outweigh the costs. Divergence would benefit all.
More from Government
'Peaceful transition to Military Power....'
Cannon
44
....heard around the world
NG - High Alert https://t.co/lfeSiUCCRB
We Will Never Forget
44
Stage is set
https://t.co/h6G3LCevII
Following the 44 trail of breadrumbs
https://t.co/PcX0uKUEUW
Cannon
44
....heard around the world
NG - High Alert https://t.co/lfeSiUCCRB
\U0001f4a5 BOOM \U0001f4a5
— R\u0113d.P\u012bll.Ph\u0101rm\u0101c\u012bst (@Red_Pill_Pharma) January 18, 2021
30 secs in - what do I hear?
\u2018Peaceful transition to military power\u2019
\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 MILITARY IS THE ONLY WAY \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 pic.twitter.com/9NPMT7N7Qy
We Will Never Forget
44
Stage is set
https://t.co/h6G3LCevII
The stage is set. Staged.
— JeLove (@LovesTheLight) November 7, 2020
Where? (the) Delaware.
10:44
Purple
First graphic in 98https://t.co/PKHlxp0rzS pic.twitter.com/XCx6pVQTHx
Following the 44 trail of breadrumbs
https://t.co/PcX0uKUEUW
Boom, Boom, Boom pic.twitter.com/ZcZXAgL0Qf
— JeLove (@LovesTheLight) August 13, 2020
WOW, Mike Gapes and Joan Ryan are non-Labour JLM conference attendees discussing disciplinary processes with Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner but not a privilege afforded to the people who pay the wages of the party machine. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #LFI https://t.co/XZDKR5FmXC
So what should Peter Mandelson talk about at the recent Jewish Labour Movement conference – his worries that an independent process will hamper the party leader Keir Starmer?. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #LFI
Mandelson “was there in the 1980s and understands where the power bases of the right are, and how it should be exercised”. Who needs independent processes or oversight when you are in the driving seat?. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #LFI
Poale Zion trades as Jewish Labour Movement is a part of the Zionist Federation of the UK and organise within the World Zionist Organisation. You do NOT have to be Jewish or a member of the Labour Party to join. JLM contains CIA asset Ruth Smeeth. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #BICOM
Ruth Smeeth, one of the 60 plus anti-Corbyn resignations from the shadow cabinet, formerly held a post with the lobby group, Trevor Chinn's Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM). #StarmerOut #BICOM #JLM https://t.co/H2a9vnsnRP
So what should Peter Mandelson talk about at the recent Jewish Labour Movement conference – his worries that an independent process will hamper the party leader Keir Starmer?. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #LFI
Mandelson “was there in the 1980s and understands where the power bases of the right are, and how it should be exercised”. Who needs independent processes or oversight when you are in the driving seat?. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #LFI
Poale Zion trades as Jewish Labour Movement is a part of the Zionist Federation of the UK and organise within the World Zionist Organisation. You do NOT have to be Jewish or a member of the Labour Party to join. JLM contains CIA asset Ruth Smeeth. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #BICOM
Ruth Smeeth, one of the 60 plus anti-Corbyn resignations from the shadow cabinet, formerly held a post with the lobby group, Trevor Chinn's Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM). #StarmerOut #BICOM #JLM https://t.co/H2a9vnsnRP
