[THREAD]
This is good news
The securing of British jobs
Is good news
Though to secure them
It admits two things
1. They were under threat
2. Something was done to address that
This is a great vote of confidence in the UK and fantastic news for the brilliant @Nissan workforce in Sunderland and electric vehicle manufacturing in this country.https://t.co/W6nN1ki3Lq
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) January 22, 2021
More from ScottishPanda
Drug policy is a complex area
It falls across social, health and criminal justice areas
I will leave the question of what Scotland is capable of in terms of devolved powers and what is reserved at Westminster
I just want to focus on "SNP cuts"
These statistics are dreadful and heartbreaking. Every death is a tragic loss of life that could have been avoided.
— Scottish Conservatives (@ScotTories) December 15, 2020
Drug deaths have doubled in a decade, and there's no doubt that the SNP's cuts to drug rehab and addiction programmes have a large part to play. https://t.co/MkmCFRAvir
Let's unpack this
Since Brussels is convinced that leaving the EU is an act of unprecedented self-harm -- and it could be proved right, we'll see -- I don't understand why they want to crib and confine the UK within their imperial regulatory reach in perpetuity. Why bother with a basket case?
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) December 11, 2020
"Since Brussels is convinced"
I like that
Personalise it to Brussels
Not 27 EU nations, our friends, neighbours
"convinced that leaving is an unprecedented act of self-harm"
it has been an act of self-harm
see the damage so far
see why no deal has to be sold as an Australia style deal
see why it has to be hidden within the "massive success" of covid
"it could be proved right"
See UK government forecasts
Not a single one positive
See Liz Truss - unable to explain how any trade deal will make us better off
But not to worry we will "mightily prosper"
"I don't see why they want to crib and confine the UK"
The UK is asking for a deal
The EU will offer one
If the UK doesn't like it well perhaps you should have thought of that before selling simplist fantasy bullshit to lie to voters
Equalities Minister \u2066@trussliz\u2069 says the government has been too focused on \u201cfashionable\u201d race, gender and sexuality issues and will now pivot towards focusing on poverty and levelling up. https://t.co/UOrxSapG7Z
— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) December 17, 2020
So really simple questions
And there are so so many
Why are concerns over race, gender and sexuality put into air quotes e.g. "fashionable"?
Is "fashionable" meant as a derogatory?
Who are you selling this shite to when you write it this way?
When did the government become "too focused" on race, gender and sexuality issues?
Define "too focused" ?
Will now "pivot" - what you mean from today 17th December 2020?
Why could you not focus on "poverty and levelling up" at the same time as equality issues since some of these issues go hand in in hand after all?
Who and what are you "levelling up" from?
More from Government
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
