[THREAD]

This is good news

The securing of British jobs

Is good news

Though to secure them

It admits two things

1. They were under threat
2. Something was done to address that

More from ScottishPanda

[thread]

Let's unpack this


"Since Brussels is convinced"

I like that

Personalise it to Brussels

Not 27 EU nations, our friends, neighbours

"convinced that leaving is an unprecedented act of self-harm"

it has been an act of self-harm

see the damage so far

see why no deal has to be sold as an Australia style deal

see why it has to be hidden within the "massive success" of covid

"it could be proved right"

See UK government forecasts

Not a single one positive

See Liz Truss - unable to explain how any trade deal will make us better off

But not to worry we will "mightily prosper"

"I don't see why they want to crib and confine the UK"

The UK is asking for a deal

The EU will offer one

If the UK doesn't like it well perhaps you should have thought of that before selling simplist fantasy bullshit to lie to voters
[thread] on the utter state of this


So really simple questions

And there are so so many

Why are concerns over race, gender and sexuality put into air quotes e.g. "fashionable"?

Is "fashionable" meant as a derogatory?

Who are you selling this shite to when you write it this way?

When did the government become "too focused" on race, gender and sexuality issues?

Define "too focused" ?

Will now "pivot" - what you mean from today 17th December 2020?

Why could you not focus on "poverty and levelling up" at the same time as equality issues since some of these issues go hand in in hand after all?

Who and what are you "levelling up" from?

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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