[thread] on "sovereignty"

"Some fears have been expressed that if Britain joins the Common Market she will cease to be able to formulate her own foreign policy and will lose her separate identity. "

[thread]

As we approach "the last throw of the dice"

I would like to do something I haven’t done enough of

Congratulations to 37.4% of the electorate

On the 23rd June 2016 you won

Congratulations

No one can take that away from you

You

Indeed I would like to be the first one to congratulate Boris Johnson

Whatever happens in the next few days

Well done Boris

Whether he gets as a deal

Or indeed no deal

Congratulations on the "win"

You will desperately sell what you won was a "win"

If a deal then with a sale of a side measure of scapegoating narrative as to why it wasn't better

If no deal then the side sale will be the scapegoating as to why

As it will always be someone else's fault

Can I firstly apologise - its obviously because I didn't believe enough or talked the country down

I am not certain which will be sold more desperately

A really shitty deal

or no deal

[thread]

I am going to do a thread on several numbers

1

2,996

4,494

43,730

106,158

Now

We go back into the dim and distant past in British politics

We go back over 2 decades

A lesson from the past

Now I am going to focus on the words of two politicians

Two politicians who have held high offices in this land

And I am going to agree with their words

So those with a long memory

May have already figured out perhaps what I am going to do based on the first two numbers

And you'd be right

So let me get going on the journey

In my first post

I deliberately anonymised those numbers

Let me now give them context

1 Princess Diana or Margaret

2,996 9/11

The final 3 are UK coronavirus death tolls:

4,494 (5th April 2020)

43,730 (30th June 2020)

106,158 (1st February 2021)

Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/

1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

2/ It highlights, as a win, that China’s preservation of existing liberalizations. That’s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,

3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etc—all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings aren’t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider

4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but that’s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as “wins.” More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in

5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. It’s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,

WHAT'S MOST SUSPICIOUS ABOUT BREXIT? A tough competition... but here's my initial list... the two LEAVE CAMPAIGNS (see £££s from RUSSIAN DONORS + ISLE OF MAN), everything to do with VOTE LEAVE, everything to do with LEAVE EU, everything to do with CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA / SCL...

... The way so many leading REMAINERS have since become LEAVERS or accepted PEERAGES (see the HOUSE OF LORDS, RUSSIA REPORT), the way David CAMERON quit, the way Nick CLEGG went from leading the LIB DEMS to working for FACEBOOK (WTF???), George OSBORNE working for Evgeny LEBEDEV.

... the lack of criticism of BREXIT on the BBC (see manipulation by omission, PROPAGANDA, DISINFORMATION and MISINFORMATION), the lack of EXPERTS on the BBC, the super-abundance of Nigel FARAGE on the BBC (see QUESTION TIME)...

... the daily PROPAGANDA from our TABLOID PRESS and traditionally BROADSHEET NEWSPAPER... the mainstreaming of DUMBING DOWN across all media and formats...

... setting up of short-lived but potentially important CROSS-PARTY COALITIONS...

It's been another torrid week at the border - inundated customs agents, goods stuck for days, companies buckling under the paperwork 1/ https://t.co/2A301guhB6 w/ @lizzzburden

Take Branimir Vuckovic, 45, who runs goods between the U.K. and EU. He spent this week stuck in Kent because he couldn't find a customs broker to do his Brexit paperwork. Even with traffic levels below normal, the system is being overwhelmed 2/

The government has admitted this problem itself. On a Q&A with businesses on Thursday, Heather Jones from the Border Delivery Group said: `We are starting to realize that customs agents’ capacity and capability is being extremely stretched' 3/ 🚨

Eddie Maybank, an independent customs broker, says he's been having a breakdown. He's forwarding inbound queries on to other agents in Dover, but they've told him to stop. `I’m inundated, and so is everyone else,' he said 4/

UK-Ireland trade has been badly affected, particularly food shipments. Stephen McAneney of Allied Fleet Services in NI said he saw consignments of potatoes, apples and cream being destroyed at ports because they lacked the right documents 5/

1. This beautiful and thought provoking piece of 21st century art was shared widely in anti-EU Facebook groups, Twitter replies to journalists and elsewhere online, in 2016.

Is it an untrackable, untraceable, Cambridge Analytica-style, fake?

2. The design is obviously substandard, to be charitable .

But look a bit closer, it appears intentionally bad.

3. A lightning strike blended through a Union Jack is not the work of a beginner, in Photoshop.

4. Is it believable that a designer capable of creating that effect in Photoshop, would also be virtually illiterate?

Literate enough to spell “Sovereignty” correctly.

5. But not literate enough to spell “corrupt”.