Here are some observations from the EU side on the touring issue facing musicians

2/ The European Commission offered the UK a standard mobility clause in its draft legal text back in March last year that would cover musicians, sportspersons etc... It's on page 354 of the EU's opening text ahead of the negotiations https://t.co/mBHyBnLqt4
3/ Under a standard mobility clause, acc to one official, EU member states can ask for visas for certain people coming to carry out paid activity. However, there's a list of exemptions for people who don't need visas:
4/ This list includes those "travelling for the purpose of business deliberations..., sportspersons or artists [including musicians] performing an activity on an ad-hoc basis, journalists sent by the media of their country of residence, and intra-corporate trainees."
5/ In other words, under a standard mobility provision, musicians, journalists, sports people and business people who travel to discuss contracts etc do not need visas. Officials say this is the standard EU arrangement for third countries, eg the US.
6/ However, according to officials, the UK rejected this opening offer in March, emphasising ending free movement of people.
7/ Then in Sept/Oct the UK brought up the issue of musicians in the services part of the negotiations, in particular the negotiations around Mode 4
8/ Mode 4 is a WTO term which refers to the issue pf people crossing borders to provide a service, but not seeking access to the job market, citizenship, residence or employment on a permanent basis
9/ The European Commission argued that that was not the proper mechanism for musicians, sportspersons, artists, journalists etc. Mode 4 is normally for very specific business professionals, managers, intercorporate transferees etc
10/ Secondly, acc to an official, Mode 4 is "visa neutral", meaning it would not address the visa question. That would remain outstanding unless it was addressed through the "mobility" negotiations
11/ Thirdly, the EU says the UK offered 30 days under Mode 4 which was what they were offering the rest of the world anyway. "What's the incentive for us to sign up to this if that's what you're offering anyway, because it doesn't solve the issue of visas," says source
12/ As a result, UK musicians, artists, sportsperons, journalists will have to check with each member state on their visa situation. "Will member states really ask for visas for British musicians? Probably not. France said they won't," says source
13/ One other hassle facing musicians is the tour bus. Under the EU UK TCA "cabotage", the ability for a truck/tourbus to travel in the EU is limited to two stops
14/ As @SamuelMarcLowe has written for @CER_EU "Under the cabotage rules of the TCA, British-owned transport companies can only make two drop offs in the EU before having to return to the UK. This massively constrains their ability to accommodate multi-country tours in Europe."
15/ That problem can only be resolved if musicians used EU operators

@OfficialSting @radiohead @NickyBenedetti @eltonofficial
16/ Any trade gurus out there are welcome to shine a light on the Mode 4 stuff.

Will update thread with UK response...
Response by UK govt spokesperson: “We absolutely agree that musicians should be able to work across Europe. The UK Government put forward a proposal, based on feedback from the music sector, that would have allowed musicians to tour - but the EU repeatedly rejected this.
18/ “The EU's offer in the negotiations would not have worked for touring musicians: it did not deal with work permits at all, and would not have allowed support staff to tour with artists.
19/ “The signatories of this letter should be asking the EU why they rejected the sensible UK proposal. 
"We will continue to listen to the needs of the UK music sector, and are hosting a roundtable today. If the EU will reconsider its stance our door remains open."
20/ It’s understood the UK Culture Secretary will host a roundtable discussion with representatives from the music sector today to discuss ways the government can support the sector moving forwards.
21/ A UK source says EU draft text was non-binding, did not include touring or technical staff, and did not address work permits, nor was it consistent with the UK’s manifesto commitment to “take back control of our borders.”
22/ Source says UK approach wd have allowed musicians to perform in the UK & EU more easily without needing work-permits and wd have delivered an outcome that is closer to the UK’s approach to incoming musicians, artists and entertainers. “These proposals were rejected by the EU”
23/ Source says in an FTA “mobility arrangements are addressed through Mode 4 provisions. There was no agreement on the need for additional mobility provisions outside of this.”
24/ Source adds the Permitted Paid Engagement visitor route allows an artist, entertainer, or musician to carry out an activity directly relating to their profession, where they have been invited by a creative organisation, agent or broadcaster based in the UK for up to one month
25/ “Whilst there is no limit on the number of engagements, the visitor must have a main ‘sponsor’ organisation that issues the invitation.”

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Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
Labour Grandees are listed in Sir Keir Starmer's colleague Jeffrey Epstein's ''Little Black Book''; Blair, Mandelson and Alastair Campbell. COINCIDENTLY, Keir Starmer and some of the same people have connections to ANOTHER of the worlds most prolific peadophiles. #StarmerOut


Starmer failed to bring charges against Jimmy Savile for paedophilia. The decision was made despite the Crown Prosecution Service receiving substantial evidence of his crimes from witnesses and victims several years before Savile died in 2011. #StarmerOut
https://t.co/PNyX5uSAkw


With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility.
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

As leader of Islington Council, a post she held from 1982-92, Margaret Hodge was aware of previous, horrendous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #CSA

She was guilty of rather more than a casual failure of oversight. In an open letter to the BBC after it investigated a range of monstrous abuse (child prostitution, torture, alleged murders), Hodge libelled one of its victims as “seriously disturbed”. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

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