BC EU
Saved by @Jacobtldr

How significant were @vonderleyen's remarks to the European Parliament this morning?

One senior EU diplomat says takes note in particular of her opening words. "Frankly, I cannot tell you today if in the end there will be a deal."

 2/ That this sentiment is being expressed by the European Commission President on Nov 25 with just over a month to Jan 1, is significant. In Brussels there are only two questions: will there be enough time to ratify any deal? Is @BorisJohnson prepared to take a big political step
3/ Yes, it takes two to tango, etc. But it's clear from Von der Leyen's comments that the EU is going to stand firm on the level playing field issue.
4/ “We are ready to be creative but we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market, the main safeguard of European prosperity and wealth" she told the EP.
5/ She repeated the demand for "robust mechanisms" to ensure competition is free and fair over time - ie, going back to the language of the Political Declaration. Also, the need "maintain common high standards now and in the future”. That's the "ratchet" or "evolution" clause
6/ So, there is no signalling at all that the EU is going to shift on these elements, which the UK has relentlessly been pushing back against. “We want to know what remedies are available if one side deviates in the future. Because trust is good, but law is better," says VDL
7/ That is saying, we are not going to rely on shared principles. Things have to be set down in law. Then a swipe at the Internal Market Bill. “Crucially in the light of recent experience a strong governance system is essential to ensure that what has been agreed is actually done
8/ Now for the timing bit.
9/ Last Friday the European Council secretariat told member states it could be possible to apply any deal provisionally from Jan 1 if there was no time for the EP to formally hold its consent vote in Dec - ie, giving more time for the negotiations
10/ There has been substantial push back on this by the EP. The Parliament can squeeze its procedures, yes, but it does not want to ratify the deal in January as an afterthought (officials say the Council was not recommending this, rather it was an option as a last resort)
11/ But there also are obligations on the Council (ie, representing member states) and the Commission which will eat up days in December...
12/ There is no sign that a breakthrough will happen this week. There has been no real movement on LPF, fisheries and governance. So things will run into next week.
13/ Say there's a breakthrough on Dec 4. That doesn't mean there's a full legal text the next day. The text has to be revised to ensure it's legally sound (what they call legal scrubbing). That can take several days. Then you have a master, revised text in English.
14/ Only at that point can official translations into 23 languages begin. While the legal scrubbing is done on the Council side, the translations are organised by the Commission. It's understood some translation may have begun on those parts of the text which are done + "stable"
15/ That only wins you so much time. The translation process will bring us up to mid December, if not beyond. Member states will then want to analyse it. The Dutch need to run it by their parliament, the Danes through their European Affairs Committee
16/ That means an EP consent vote (ratification) would only happen near the end of Dec (indeed, Michel Barnier told the College of Commissioners last week that the EP could vote on December 28 if need be). That's also contingent on the EP dropping the committee scrutiny phase
17/ In other words, for that timeline to succeed (and it's already breakneck) then next week has to be the cut off point. Officials have said repeatedly that Michel Barnier won't be the one to say, time's up. "They will go to the outer limits to get a deal," says on diplomat.
18/ But ultimately he will have to let member states and the European Parliament know that ratification before Dec 31 is no longer feasible.
19/ The other pressure relates to No Deal contingency plans. If there is No Deal, the only carry over contingency measures the EU will agree to will govern aviation, rail and road haulage.
20/ So far the Commission has resisted publishing those plans, despite growing unease among member states. The problem is, that any contingency measures allowing planes to keep flying is based on co-decision, meaning a process of negotiation between the Council and the Parliament
21/ Again, this takes time. So, all told, officials believe next week is really "it"

ENDS

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Amid the hail of accusations that the EU wanted to put a hard border on the island of Ireland last Friday, it's worth pointing out what the ill-fated resort to Article 16 was about:

2/ Under the Commission's trade mechanism, any Covid vaccines leaving the EU for third countries would need export authorisations, ie to ensure vaccines were not being exported which were actually part of an avanced purchase agreement between member states + pharma companies

3/ Any movements of exports from one member state to another would NOT have required such an export authorisation

4/ Because of the NI Protocol, Northern Ireland would typically have availed of NOT having to had export authorisations for any vaccines being sent there from Belgium (or wherever)

5/ However, someone in the Commission spotted the fact that, also under the Protocol, there was unfettered movement of goods between NI and GB
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@tconnellyRTE
BREAKING: The EU’s chief negotiator has told MEPs that negotiations on a post-Brexit deal could continue until Wednesday but no further.

2/ According to sources present, Michel Barnier also warned the UK that a deal would not be approved by member states if it pressed ahead with passing the Internal Market and the Finance Bills into law.

3/ He told the European Parliament’s Brexit coordination committee this morning that US President Elect Joe Biden was also “sensitive” to any impact of UK law on the Good Friday Agreement.

4/ Mr Barnier told MEPs the talks were in the “endgame” and that there would have to be a decision on whether or not there was to be an agreement by Thursday.

5/ He said if there was no deal then the European Commission would be ready “to react immediately” with contingency plans, according to sources present.
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Tony Connelly
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@tconnellyRTE
Irish foreign min Simon Coveney says he is "more optimistic" about progress in the EU UK Joint Committee over implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol.

2/ Last night @rtenews reported that if a free trade deal were to be concluded, a sequence would be put in place at the end of which the UK would drop the clauses in the Internal Market Bill which breach the Protocol.

3/ This morning, the EU’s representative on the Joint Committee, which implements the Protocol, said he would be meeting his counterpart Michael Gove in Brussels today.


4/ Mr Coveney said: “There is more cause to be optimistic and positive in the context of the Joint Committee and its work in terms of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland.

5/ “Maros Sefcovic and Michael Gove have made really practical progress on many of the outstanding issues that were not resolved up until a few weeks ago.
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Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
New: the European Parliament's announcement that it will not ratify any treaty before the end of December unless the deal is concluded by midnight on Sunday comes amid signals that, despite progress, a deal won't be concluded until early next week.

2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".

3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.

4/ The EP is saying it wants a "provisional" text from the European Commission "as soon as possible" - not clear if that means even before the midnight deadline

5/ If a deal is not concluded by Sunday night then we are in uncharted waters
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Tony Connelly
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@tconnellyRTE
The DUP's Ian Paisley MP tells the NI Affaris Committee that the NI Protocol shd be "removed" and that Article 16 of the Protocol should be invoked. Describes it as an "unmitigated disaster... Those who advocated for the Protocol have some responsibility for that.

"The protocol is now an impediment to trade. We told you so."

Article 16 of the NI Protocol: "If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the EU or the UK may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures.

"Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the
functioning of this Protocol."

Mr Paisley then berates @Freight_NI for not demanding that Article 16 be invoked. Mr Leheny asks him what the alternative is. Mr Paisley says removing the Protocol is the alternative.
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& if you're going to come at me from the economic angle, plz do some research into EU center right parties. There's a lot of btwn-country variation, but these parties typically aim towards increased privatization of public systems & deregulation of industry. Dems do the opposite.

A related area is austerity. To look at recent history, examine how many EU countries chipped away at funding their extant safety nets, esp in healthcare, during the recession. What did the US do under Dems? A massive expansion of healthcare.

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Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1

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Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty

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Adjacent to the Kanakadurga shrine is the shrine of the divine consort-Sri Malleswara Swamy on the Indrakeeladri.
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