BC BREXIT
Saved by @Jacobtldr

Some compelling evidence at the NI Affairs Committee this morning on Brexit, the risks of smuggling, organised crime, the "soft underbelly" of the Irish border, the loss of the European Arrest Warrant and what might replace it

 2/ Giving evidence were Simon Byrne, chief constable of the PSNI, Mark McEwan, assistant chief constable, Steve Rodhouse, of the UK National Crime Agency, and Steve Tracey, of HMRC. Here's the gist of what I've just filed for @rtenews online:
3/ A UK law officer has raised the prospect of intl organised criminals trafficking drugs, people + firearms into the UK via Ireland because of tighter controls at GB ports thanks to Brexit. He also suggested that Ireland may have to tighten security at its ports accordingly.
4/ Steve Rodhouse, DG of Operations with the UK National Crime Agency, said organised criminals would be making a “fundamental choice” as to whether they continue to traffic drugs, people and firearms into the UK via English ports...
5/ ...or whether they might decide to switch routes into the UK through Northern Ireland via the Irish Republic.
Mr Rodhouse told a House of Commons committee that such trafficking was already underway through what could be termed the “soft underbelly” of the Irish border.
6/ “We are seeing relatively small numbers, but we do see people being trafficked into the UK via the Republic to date and then moving on through ferries and the like into GB. We are very much alive to that risk,” he told the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee.
7/ He was asked by the committee chair if he agreed with an earlier published assessment by the NCA that Brexit could mean the island of Ireland becoming “an attractive backdoor to the broader UK criminal market.”
8/ Mr Rodhouse said his views were “akin” to those of PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne who had earlier told the committee that the land border could be seen as “the soft underbelly of the Common Travel Area.”
9/ “There are organised criminals out there who might consider that to be the case,” Mr Rodhouse said. “Equally there are others who feel there are opportunities to access the UK through other routes. It would be wrong to ignore the possibility to see the Republic as a way in.”
10/ He said organised criminals were “agile” and would be deciding whether a greater presence of UK Border Forces at English ports, and more data about what might be hidden in freight consignments coming in from overseas, could mean an incentive to use Ireland instead.
11/ “They have a choice to make as to whether they feel that any changes to the rest of GB ports post-Brexit will mean they should change their routes coming into GB via the Republic,” he said.
12/ Steve Tracey, the Asst Dir of the Organised Crime Directorate within HMRC told the cttee: “The organised crime groups are very agile, they will look to see where the loopholes are, they will look to examine where they can best take advantage of any weaknesses in the system.”
13/ The DUP’s Gregory Campbell asked both witnesses if Ireland needed to increase its security at ports accordingly.
14/ The Foyle MP told Mr Rodhouse: “We have to try to ensure that the Republic does their duty and their job, ... because that would be a gap into the UK that criminals could exploit if they thought they were less diligent in the Republic than we are in the UK.”
15/ Mr Rodhouse replied: “Yes, I accept that. Clearly that’s an important aspect of our protective security as it is with other borders across Europe.”
16/ He added: “I would agree with your fundamental point. Of course, it is helpful for UK security for the Republic’s borders to be as effectively policed as possible.”
17/ The committee heard evidence from both the PSNI, the National Crime Agency and HMRC that a replacement would be needed for the European Arrest Warrant (EAW), which Britain will formally leave on January 1.
18/ Without the EAW, or any replacement mechanism, Dublin and London would have to rely for cross border extraditions on a Council of Europe convention dating back to 1956, the committee heard.
19/ Whereas an EAW could be triggered and executed within 48 days, it would take a year for an extradition to be expedited via the Council of Europe convention, the hearing was told.

This year 45 extraditions have been sought north and south through the European Arrest Warrant.
20/ The PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne said there had been “hundreds of years” of people engaging in smuggling and contraband “right back to the middle ages through to current times” on the island of Ireland.
21/ He said cooperation between the PSNI and Gardai would continue, and could be enhanced despite Brexit, depending on the outcome of the current negotiations on the future relationship.
22/ He said the PSNI would be “acutely aware” that they needed to support the Garda from January 1 when it came to monitoring the land border, and the risk of “300 plus crossings being exploited by organised crime groups smuggling any one of a range of things.”
23/ Mr Byrne said the difference between EU tariffs and UK tariffs in the event of no deal could be one factor in a potential increase in smuggling.
24/ He also told the committee that the PSNI would be monitoring any potential loyalist protests at Northern Ireland ports implementing the Protocol "if they see that the port boundary represents any threat to their perspective of the Union."
25/ "While we're keeping an active eye on it, there is no immediate prospect of it," he said. He told the Committee that he did not expect to see any dramatic changes on January 1.

ENDS
And I should of course correct Gregory Campbell's title - he's MP for East Londonderry and not Foyle (and apologies to Colum Eastwood...)

More from Tony Connelly

Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Here is the rough transcript and story of @realDonaldTrump's NI envoy, his meeting with @simoncoveney and the alleged threat of the EU using aviation as leverage over the UK if the Internal Market Bill led to a hard border on the island of Ireland.

2/ Mr Mulvaney was talking to the @iiea via video link.

Asked about the concerns in the US over the IMB, which breaches the NI Protocol, Mr Mulvaney said that in his meetings with all sides his worry was that the Bill could result in a border “by accident”.

3/ He told the presentation: “The best response I got on the matter was from Simon Coveney when I met with him in Dublin.

4/ “I said to him..., look, Simon, my fear is this: there’s a no deal Brexit. The IMB kicks in, the Brits don’t want to put up a border on the island, because they know what that means, the Irish don’t want to put up a border across the island because they know what that means.

5/ “The Europeans come in and say, well, if you’re not going to control the flow of goods from outside of the [European] Union [to] inside the Union, from Belfast to Dublin, for the sake of this discussion, we’re going to force you to ring the whole island of Ireland
POLITICS
Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
NEW: Michel Barnier has told EU member states there has been some movement on the level playing field, and on dispute resolution, but that fisheries talks remain "very difficult" @rtenews understands. Sources say this could go through this week and beyond...

2/ Acc to one senior source, Barnier said there was acceptance that the EU could take retaliatory measures against the UK if it diverged from EU standards but that it would not be "autonomous", in other words, before taking action there wd need to be some dialogue with the UK

3/ "It's the operationalisation of that principle that is now under discussion," acc to source. The EU see this is progress as for a long time the UK refused to accept that if they diverged the EU had a right to do something, says the source

4/ "That principle has now been accepted, but how it is implemented is the nub of the dicussion."

5/ From the EU perspective the concern is the UK might change its rules to make it more competitive, says the source. "Barnier seemed positive that the principle of couter-measures had been agreed."
EU & UK
Advertisement
Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Breaking: The DUP and Sinn Fein leaders have sent a joint letter to the European Commission describing as “unacceptable” the alleged threat to the continuity of existing food supplies to Northern supermarkets once the Northern Ireland Protocol takes effect.

2/ The letter, seen by @rtenews, and signed by @DUPleader and @moneillsf, highlights the problem of the need for checks and controls on food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 1 and how that might impact on the supply of food to supermarket chains.

3/ The First/Dep First Ministers write: “It is hard to imagine a more fundamental aspect of everyday life than the purchase of daily food supplies...

4/ "Hence we would ask you to recognise how important it is that the current consideration of the detail of how the Protocol will be applied takes our unique context into account.”

5/ Under the Protocol, food and animal derived products entering NI from Great Britain will be subject to the EU’s food safety regime, meaning that so-called sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks will be required on a range of products destined for supermarket shelves.
POLITICS
Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Where are we at as of 1450 CET?

Talks continuing, could go on for a while longer. One informed source is suggesting that because the fish deal was agreed at the high political level (btn @vonderleyen and @BorisJohnson) it was left to officials to translate it into real numbers

2/ Some reflections from an EU diplomat briefed on the rest of the deal, which appears to be in place:

3/ "There is nothing particularly surprising. It is consistent with what we've been hearing all along. The UK red lines are respected. Our concerns are also respected. Of course we have to see the fine print, but in general there is a robust level playing field."

4/ The LPF mechanism is said to be a "complicated structure" which works both ways.

5/ "It doesn't mean that because you have these structures you necessarily have to use them. The mood at the moment is, do you want to diverge [from EU standards] for the sake of diverging? In reality, most likely, pragmatism will prevail."
POLITICS
Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
New: the European Parliament's announcement that it will not ratify any treaty before the end of December unless the deal is concluded by midnight on Sunday comes amid signals that, despite progress, a deal won't be concluded until early next week.

2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".

3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.

4/ The EP is saying it wants a "provisional" text from the European Commission "as soon as possible" - not clear if that means even before the midnight deadline

5/ If a deal is not concluded by Sunday night then we are in uncharted waters
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Zach Elsbury \U0001f333\U0001f536
Zach Elsbury 🌳🔶...
@ZachElsbury
On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
BREXIT
Nick Reeves 3.5% #FBPE
Nick Reeves 3.5% #FBPE
@nickreeves9876
1/ Brexit politics is built on fear. Frightened people tend to seek security in the tribe. Once that tribe might have been the Labour movement, but now in a fragmented post-industrial society it is the nation. Tribal identification is emotional, not rational.


2/ A tribe that feels under threat wants to control its borders, and who enters into its territory. It demands loyalty and solidarity, and its prime virtue is self-sacrifice - economic arguments won't persuade tribalists. Its members want to feel it is strong and powerful.

3/ Tribalism at a time of crisis is intolerant of dissent. The tribe must pull together against its enemies. Dissent and questioning cause division and disrupt the collective effort. Criticism is seen as treason. The Brexit right have ruthlessly exploited tribal psychology.


4/ To understand Brexit politics it is necessary to understand that the working and middle classes are dead as coherent political forces and that frightened and insecure people are now clinging to the only available powerful tribe, the nation-tribe.

5/ The Brexit right understands and ruthlessly exploits basic social emotions. In contrast the centre and centre-left mostly can see no further than the blinkered logic of rational individualism, from which perspective everything else is irrational and incomprehensible.
BREXIT
Advertisement
Alessio Patalano
Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
BREXIT
The Troll Zoo
The Troll Zoo
@TrollZoo
1. This beautiful and thought provoking piece of 21st century art was shared widely in anti-EU Facebook groups, Twitter replies to journalists and elsewhere online, in 2016.

Is it an untrackable, untraceable, Cambridge Analytica-style, fake?


2. The design is obviously substandard, to be charitable .

But look a bit closer, it appears intentionally bad.

3. A lightning strike blended through a Union Jack is not the work of a beginner, in Photoshop.


4. Is it believable that a designer capable of creating that effect in Photoshop, would also be virtually illiterate?

Literate enough to spell “Sovereignty” correctly.


5. But not literate enough to spell “corrupt”.
BREXIT
Holger Hestermeyer
Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
It is time to talk Brexit and standards again. (thread)


Let's start off with: I don't think any trade experts are surprised by this. It is why the TCA did not do much on SPS. It is why the EU did not offer much on SPS. It is why the UK did not ask much on SPS.

But it also shows that the popular slogan "after Brexit we'll have the same standards as before, so why would anything change in trade" was wrong - and worse, it was purposefully trying to stifle a necessary debate.

And this leads me to the next point: I have no issue with changing the rules, I have a massive issue with how it is done. Here's what we should discuss:

The decisive question: What are the standards the UK as a country wants. To inform this debate, we need the following information:
BREXIT

You May Also Like

Fidato
Fidato
@tequieremos
A thread on the life and achievements of Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jillani RadiAllah who served Islam infinitely as the Reviver (Mujadid) of the 11th Century!


Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jilani (RA) was one of the greatest Islamic Saint, Scholar, and Jurist. The honorific Muhiyudin denotes his status with many Sufis as a "reviver of religion". Jilani refers to his place of birth. He also carried the epithet Baghdadi.

[1]

Sheikh Abdul Qadir Jilani was born on the eve of the 2nd of Ramadan 470 AH. His birth was a great blessing for the Ummah. It was the arrival of the Sultan al-Awliya (King of the Awliya) of that era, which had been foretold for centuries before his birth.

[2]

When Hazrat Abdul Qadir Jillani was asked by someone what brought him to his high spiritual level, he said, The truthfulness which I promised to my mother. He related the following story:
"One day, on the eve of Eid al-Adhā, I went to my mother, who was then a widow and..

[3]

..and requested her, 'Send me to the path of Truth, give me permission to go to Baghdad to acquire knowledge, to be with the wise and those who are close to Allah. She cried, but she brought out 80 pieces of gold, which was all that my father had left as inheritance.

[4]
RELIGION
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.


See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:

And see this thing that I wrote:

And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:

And see this other thing that I wrote:
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
BRAHMA VAIVARTA PURAN: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS.

This Puran introduces us to way of Vedas. On the request of Narad Muni Bhagwan Saavarni had preached this Puran. It is a summary of Dharma, Arth, Moksha etc.


Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

The first part Brahmkhand, consists of Shrishti description. Here Shri is known as Para Brahma and description of Gokul is also mentioned, It also narrates the argument between Brahma and Narad in which both were defeated, and then Narad went to Shiva to attain more gyan.

Shivji advised him to go to Bhagwan Saavarni for this. Narad goes to Saavarni ashram to seek Knowledge and is totally amazed by the sorroundings.

Next is Prakriti khand which consists of dialogue between Narad and Saavarni where they discuss the

Importance of Shri Krishna through various stories. Then there is the discussion of Prakriti and its various hues. Listening to this gets you wealth.
Next is Ganesh Khand which describes the Punyak vrat done by Parvati ji. After this it narrates the birth of Kartikeya and Ganesh.
RELIGION
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) The Whitaker scandal is deepening, as it becomes clear that Sessions' Russia recusal was a coordinated sham and his firing an act of obstruction—and that his replacement is a White House plant inside the Mueller probe. I hope you'll retweet and read on for more details.


1/ From 2014-17 Whitaker worked for World Patent Marketing—which during his tenure defrauded consumers out of $26 million and was successfully prosecuted by the feds. His involvement in the scam confirmed he had loose morals and that the feds would never want to employ him again.

2/ Despite the seeming impossibility of a man with Whitaker's background getting a job at Justice ever again—he'd been found to have used his former title as a US attorney to fraudulently threaten consumers with valid complaints with criminal penalties—Whitaker found an opening.

3/ Within 60 days of parachuting out of World Patent Marketing as it was being fined $26 million by the feds, Whitaker was working for CNN and telling a fellow attorney panelist that his purpose in working for CNN was to get noticed by one man—Donald Trump—and thereby get a job.

4/ Whitaker spent his time at CNN making ludicrous statements about the Mueller probe: there was no obstruction or collusion, he said; Mueller had no authority to look into any aspect of Trump's finances or to subpoena him, he said. All the while, he hoped Trump was watching him.
POLITICS
Stephen Fasenfeld \U0001f600
Stephen Fasenfeld 😀...
@fasenfeld
1. “Who Are Ireland’s Members Of The World Economic Forum Implementing The Great Reset In 2021 ? 🧵1/28

🕵️🔎 Politicians, Musicians, Clergy, Bankers, Journalists, Human Rights, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Corporations & Agriculture


2. In previous threads I have looked at 🇮🇪 key players in the Trilateral Commission as well as 🇮🇪 people who have attended the Bilderberger meetings. I also looked at the 🇮🇪 in the Young Global Leaders which is a site run by the WEF. You will see a lot of crossover between them.

3. The purpose of this thread is to compile all the Irish members into one thread for ease of access and reading rather than having to dive through the WEF site. This is by no means definitive and I will be adding more over time when they pop out of the woodwork.

4. Ireland’s WEF members are drawn from all walks of life but can be split into 2 separate areas. The WEF calls the first category “people” and the 2nd one “agenda contributors”. In total Ireland has a minimum of 61 members. Some of the names will be familiar and others will not

5. In this thread I’m just going to concentrate on the 21 people (there are probably a lot more). There are also 40 “agenda contributors” which I will cover in a separate thread. The agenda contributors are those who write articles or do research for the WEF site.
ECONOMY