My New Years resolution is to provide more actual useful info was thinking maybe it would be shitpost less but I don’t like setting up for failure so here’s a thread on how I think about supply / demand imbalances over cycles thus far I’ve lived

1. Bitcoin is an extremely unique asset in that supply cannot react to demand in any meaningful capacity, miners can add hashrate and mine albeit slowly faster but it’s not enough to drive material supply side changes

2. This differs from a lot of commodities say oil or silver or gold or leggos as people want more of these and prices go up producers produce more they feed the ducks

3. Altcoins imo have largely been a market force driven by this issue though a lot of get rich quick and some actual innovation sprinkled but I think this is why the asset class has grown horizontally at its core

4. Either way you have periods where demand clearly crushes supply often halving related but nonetheless fucking up the imbalance and the momentum does the rest

I'd like to briefly discuss something I think is really important. Possibly the most important thing to consider this new year. When I worked in law I was taught to research and analyze all info & possibilities/arguments. We were taught to remove our emotions from this process..

The reason we were taught not to become too emotionally invested in a particular client or case was because it creates a situation in which you can be blindsided and/or manipulated. It can cause you to miss important information or facts that your client didn't want you to see...

This can then in turn implode your entire case & can damage the firm and/or attorneys reputation & credibility. In law, your reputation/credibility is everything. We were taught to remove emotion from the fact finding due diligence process. We were taught to seek out counter

Evidence; we were taught to analyze a case or legal argument from all sides and perspectives. We were taught how to understand the other side & attorneys argument. This is a vigorous process of picking apart your theory, trying to poke holes in it, questioning your own clients

Story, trying to independently validate or disprove it. This is so when you take the case to trial, you are prepared for everything and all possibilities. You must know the other sides legal theory/argument better than they do. You must have a solid foundation of prior case law..

Thread: Going through my TL, pulling out relevant tweets that show facets of things that have been happening in the past weeks/months, trying to use pattern recognition to put together a coherent picture, I'm struck by our cultivated allergy to nuance. (1/x)

1) *IMPORTANT LINK AT END OF THIS THREAD*
(and no, I've never posted a tweet like this before.)

What times we are in. And how few understand or grasp the utter profundity of the moment.

2) Yet despite how it's looking from this current perspective, and after some turbulent months ahead (likely an understatement), the dawning of a true planetary renaissance WILL become apparent to even the most at-present comatose sleeper.

3) The evil is being uprooted and is being defeated.

That is my conviction as has been since April 2020.

About eight months ago I took a whole new look at Présídent Ťrůmp and what he has been doing – and re-orientated what I thought my opinion of him was.

4) When he first entered the pŕesidency, I had looked at and heard about his tweets, and thought, “Gosh. Can you believe it. This is the Pŕĕsidenţ of the Uníted Státés. How very unstatesmanlike to be tweeting stuff like this”.

5) But about eight months ago, I thought, "Why has every single article that has been written about him in the British media since he started running for office been – without exception – negative, negative, negative?".

#Tenet The major problem I had with Tenet was not the complexities of the concepts, but how the characters weren't characters in themselves and merely existed just to serve the purpose of giving the audience an exposition of the ideas and rules of the world.

The very fact of a film, be it Tenet or any, being an espionage, sci-fi thriller subsumes the justification that characters need not be as emotionally deep as they are in art-house films thus rendering any sort of expectation to form an emotional connect with the characters…

…null; but I expect the film to flourish of its capacities and techniques otherwise which is what the previous films of Nolan did, at least until Inception.

Tenet from the very first go feels jarringly cut and leaves no room for the characters to develop and indulges in exposition dump in every other scene.

It makes the film-watching experience a puzzle-solving task that we are left at times wondering whether to watch the present scene or process what has just been seen.

‘From China with Love’: profile of a #volunteer. Kiki was born in China, an hour’s drive from Hong Kong. In 2016 she visited the UK for first time and was lost late at night one evening in London, not knowing how to get back to her accommodation. #volunteeringstory

Along came the man who (though she didn’t know it yet) was the love of her life, Dean, who helped her find her way. Exchanging numbers and staying in touch turned into a long-distance relationship and an eventual decision to move to the UK permanently, which she did in March 2020

... just in time to 'enjoy' the first lockdown! Arriving in Reading determined to plunge herself into British culture, Kiki searched @eventbrite for interesting social possibilities. She booked herself on one of the last local events that were able to go ahead face to face...

– a Reading #RecruitmentCharter Launch event on 12 March.

To keep herself busy in lockdown Kiki offered free virtual Mandarin lessons, and was interviewed by @BBCBerkshire for their series of ‘Making a Difference’ community features.

At the beginning of summer Kiki and Dean got the green light from the council to have a marriage ceremony – attended by 6 people in person and by her family back in #China via livestream through a phone on a tripod. #wedding

Quick thread on why I think EDM will finish better than most models and pundits predict
1) Pundits underestimate how much playing with “meh” players can drag down even the best in the league. McDavid having “meh” help from Jan 1 on effected his results until Nuge got there (1/

Nuge w/ 97 to start will be huge for 97
2) McDavid was on a rehabbed knee all year and looked slower/tired by the last couple months. Fresh and healthy this year
3) Drai having his own line with reasonably good player in Yamamoto and Kahun gives EDM a good 2nd line. (2/

4) I project 97’s line at 55% GF and Drais at 52% GF. There ‘s ~32 5v5 minutes per game won
5) Turris wasn’t good last 2 years in NSH, but I can’t come up with any way of seeing him replicate Sheahan’s 31%(!!!!) GF% last year. JP could be good help there (3/

Turris' line penciled in at 45% GF

6) Wingers like Ennis, Neal and Chiasson will be fine if not above their level and penciled in on 4th line, they’ll be good. I got the 4th line being close to 50% GF (4/

7) EDM won’t miss Klefbom as much as feared. Jones looks like the real deal. Klef’s Achilles’ heel has been defensive and I don’t think Jones is a down grade there much if at all with quicker feet. (5/

the new tabletop simulator update.... oh no

hey @BerserkGames, please hire freelance translators instead of doing whatever the fuck you're doing

oh god

mais je gueule

press V to pâte

Lunch break chart dump for final 2020 regular season numbers

Sheesh Packers/Bills

Rodgers finishes with a big lead over everyone

Which teams were best at avoiding rush attempts in the worst time to rush? (2nd & long)

NGS and @nflfastR CPOE finished pretty similar

I went to bed last night really angry and frustrated that people are still forcing learners to be on camera...

At this point I wonder if the holdouts are people we can get through to, who are just in need of more support and information about the science of teaching and learning, or if they are committed to their own ignorance? Is it worth continuing the conversation?

1/n

I am working on a paper on why interest rates and yields are as low as they are. I will share some preliminary results here.

2/n

What I will share are some of the output from a simple model for US 10-year Treasury bond yields.

3/n

It is key to me that the model not only is statistically significantly, but is also economically significant. We need to understand economic developments within economic theory.

4/n

I have estimated a model for the US 10-year bond yield based on the following fundamental variables.

5/n

1) Nominal GDP growth (per capita).

Max Boot calling for the FCC to reinstate the Fairness Doctrine to reign in Fox News Channel is what happens when a columnist writes with great passion and doesn’t bother to look up the specifics of what he’s writing

For starters, Fox News - and Fox Business News, One America Network, and NewsMax TV — are cable stations and do not broadcast over public

The Federal Communications Commission has little authority over cable channels. The FCC might have a little more authority over Fox News Sunday and other news programs that carried by the Fox Broadcasting

The FCC commissioners decided to revoke the Fairness Doctrine in 1987, a unanimous 4–0 decision involving two Republican commissioners and two Democratic commissioners.

The FCC counsel concluded that the rule had become counterproductive, as broadcasters “had shied away from covering controversial issues in news, documentaries and editorial

@ukcynic01 Yes, you are right on the number.... they, including Regeneron, pay this Murray guy now for instance to make sure not to utter a word about niacin

https://t.co/d58DAM88q1

Reactionaries are like, "ah, I see that you post constantly and passionately about minimum wage, but riddle me this: have you considered that some people I don't respect or care about might benefit from this?"

I love it when a thought occurs to someone a century after everyone with a brain thought about it and quickly explained why it's irrelevant or false.

Ah, but did you know that human beings who are of high school age also are compelled by social structure to mortgage the time they have in this life to perform labor to survive, from which wealthy people extract profit??? #gotcha

I find it very clarifying to think about min. wage not as the lowest amount you're owed for your labor but the lowest amount you're owed just for giving your employer that time, even if you're standing around. Your time alive is also what they are buying from you.

This is useful in part because it negates skill-based labor objections, which are garbage anyway, but anything that reframes the conversation as a human right and not a job-based right is good.

@JerryDyerFresno 9/ The staffs and management at Naomi House for women, the homeless shelter @PoverelloHouse were incredibly abusive. They constantly threatened vulnerable, mostly mentally ill women, with the sts for "disobeying" some new made-up rule(s). What jerks! -Michaela cc: @SoniaMDLR

@PoverelloHouse @SoniaMDLR @fresnoland @NAMICommunicate @FresnoNAMI @FresnoCountyCA @namicalifornia @ACLU_NorCal