Beliefs affect behaviour

Bad behaviour can have detrimental consequences with wealth building

Being aware of your own innocent beliefs is powerful, but only if you apply this knowledge

A thread inspired by @GeorgeDKinder and the @KinderInstitute

1. My self worth is based on what others think of me

Some people define themselves based upon how they guess others see them

When they are convinced that others think poorly of them, such people lack the self-confidence necessary to consistently take action

2. My past = My future

If some people experience a series of setbacks they assume their goals are not achievable

Over time they become dispirited & discouraged, then they avoid situations where failure is a risk

As any significant effort entails risk, such people are then unable to make significant achievements

3. My destiny is controlled by the supernatural

The belief that status in life or even potential as a human is determined by luck, fate, or divine intervention, can rob such people of initiative, making them passive as they wait for "luck" to change

Marathon Asset produced several iconic investors such as Nick Sleep and Jeremy Hosking.

Their letters from 2002 to 2015 provided a treasure trove of insights into their investment frameworks and how they look at the capital cycle.

Here are my main takeaways:

1/ Periods of high profitability leads to reckless investments.

When profits are high:

-Boost CAPEX with little regard for ROIC
-Competitors will follow suit to avoid losing market share
-CEO's incentives aren't aligned with shareholders

It's a race to the bottom.

2/ The capital cycle will swing down when investments are taken too far.

Forecasts that were reasonable will now look overly optimistic.

Profits collapse, management teams are changed, CAPEX is cut, and consolidation begins.

This will pave way for a recovery of profits.

3/ Asset growth matters

Consider both asset growth at the company and industry level.

Avoid industries where assets are growing rapidly.

4/ We tend to extrapolate

When overdone, investments that appear logical at first can become disastrous.

We have a tendency to forecast linearly when many things are cyclical.

Examples: trade cycles, credit cycles, etc

@JSG_54 I’d like to make a list of which ones and when they were put on the payroll from the attorneys. Also, others like Caleb Alexander and Tim Munson. Anyone that has had their hand in policy or publicly demonized pain meds and then profited off of litigation, get em on the list.

Here’s #ArtVanZee

#AnnaLembke

#DaneshMazloomdoost

#AndrewKolodny

As a young immigrant, I took out thousands of dollars in debt to go to for-profit college—thinking it was part of the American Dream.

Like millions of Americans, I was left deeply in debt with a worthless degree and shoddy education. #CancelStudentDebt

I was fortunate enough to eventually go to a public university and begin to pay it off, but millions do not have that luxury.

Here are some misconceptions about who has debt and why we need full cancellation.

Is this really a crisis?

Yes! Student debt has more than doubled in just 10 years. 45 million Americans now are saddled with over $1.7 trillion in debt—and the delinquency rates have nearly doubled.

Isn’t it already cancelled during the pandemic?

Student loan interest is on hold during the pandemic—but the debt is not forgiven. That means millions will owe thousands of dollars in backpay if that debt isn’t relieved.

Does President Biden have the authority to end the crisis?

Yes! The federal government owns 92% of the $1.7 trillion in student debt. Biden can forgive it with the stroke of a pen.

1/ This is a memo outlining 11 ways to hide your money offshore.

It was not supposed to “fall into the wrong hands.”

Well, it did. https://t.co/N6RUDqHVfR

2/ The “11 ways” memo is part of a huge trove of documents—350,000 to be exact—leaked from inside a trust company called La Hougue, based on an island off the coast of France.

Amid the data, this memo stood out for its candor.

3/ After one tax expert reviewed it, he told @SamEifling and @CalynShaw, “I have to say I’m not sure what else I can add other than ‘WTF’? (you can quote me on that). How stupid (or confident nothing will ever happen to you) do you have to be to put this in writing?”

4/ Mother Jones and @GlobalRepCentre are surfacing this particular memo simply because it’s the sort of thing you never see: a customer-facing document obtained in a big offshore data leak, quoting dollar amounts that few people ever hold in their hands at one time.

5/ Each of the 11 options listed in the memo offers some sort of contrived business deal by which you move money into an anonymous offshore account. And—here’s where the genius lies—they design those deals to give you some sort of tax break. The methods are, at best, legal-ish.

1/ If, after reading https://t.co/IzzATArtZl you are still confused how Alpha Homora and IronBank were hacked, here's how the hack was conceived

2/ Normally when you borrow funds from AH bank, your debtShare and totalDebt increases. Specifically if you want to borrow x tokens, your debt share will be calculated as:

share = x * totalShare / totalDebt

and it is added to totalShare

3/ All these numbers are very big integers (as token precisions are 18 digits) and the calculation is correct, but when totalShare = 1 (think 1 wei) and x < totalDebt, new debt share will be 0 (integer division)

4/ So if you manage to have AH bank with totalShare = 1, and some totalDebt you can repeatedly borrow less than the totalDebt (ideally totalDebt - 1) effectively doubling totalDebt in each iteration. You can do it as many times as you want, while totalShare will remain 1

5/ Eventually Iron Bank that supplies funds to AH will run out of funds, so when amounts get big enough (you are doubling each time), also make sure to replenish it with flash loan

🚨FINANCIAL TRUTH: ANTIFA🚨

antifa thugs have been looting and rioting across our nation for several months now.

who sets up and funds these riots?
what is the purpose of them?
who financially benefits from them?

let’s take a deep dive👇🏽

Jim Traficant US Bankruptcy FDR sold USA to the UN International Bankers IMF-

FDR was a Traitor who gave our Sovereignty to United Nations Banksters IMF under The Federal Reserve Act

Dissolving American Sovereignty and our Constitutional

During yesterday’s Clubhouse session, @anuarfariz mentioned Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB), and that reminded me of some old notes I had.



A THREAD on one of the greatest struggles in providing a basic right, electricity, to residents in Malaysia's easternmost state 👇

1/ SESB was privatised circa 1998 to nurse a financially distressed state-owned utility back to profitability by taking it out of the hands of the state and placing it in the care of the federal government.

2/ Ownership wise: TNB is major shareholder with 82%, Sabah gov owns the remainder and the Finance Ministry holds a golden share.

3/ Back-of-the-envelope calculations from 2010-2019 annual reports showed that the company had received about RM13 billion in subsidies and development grants from Putrajaya. That number is sans loan obligations to the federal government which stood at RM2.39 billion as of 2019.

4/ Federal aid had helped SESB post stable revenue and net profits across the period under review since subsidies were recognised as company revenue and grants + loans used to finance capex/opex.

$NOVN DD Thread (1)

Title: A fundamental analysis covering the most important and valuable information about the recently published 10-Q report of Novan Inc. An in-depth discussion on certain formulations and developments in the area of equity financing and investor interest.

$NOVN Disclosure: This thread is based on in-depth research. In this context, all of the formulations used herein in relation to the quarterly report are backed up by facts. Only thoughts going beyond this are to be regarded as highly speculative. No Investment Advice.

I. Summary of the financial overview

Let‘s start with a look at some numbers on the balance sheet: Total current assets have been increased significantly compared to December 31, 2019. With cash and cash equivalents in the amount of $43,072M we can see that $NOVN...

...has successfully raised capital through different financial options. (I‘ll go into this in more detail in the next chapter.)
In its consolidated financial statements, $NOVN clarifies how this initial financial situation will affect future operating business.

This statement indirectly suggests that the next phase of growth will be dedicated to investors and shareholders. It can be said in support that the term "increasing / maximizing shareholder value" has been used more frequently in recent weeks. $NOVN

VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion


In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower

He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena

“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”

In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown

#AXXAers a short(ie #shortsqeeze hopefully) #update on one of $AXXA’s #VC companies:
1/

$AXXA Great #zoom call over the weekend w/our #French #VentureCapital Office. We received confirmation of a #USD $250,000 #INVESTMENT into one of our early-stage startups from a reputable international #VC funder.
(let's focusing on #VC before we move to other divisions)
2/

$AXXA Our #French #VC Group will be increasing its stake in this #startup. For confidentiality reasons, we will not disclose the name of the #funder until the second #stage #Funding round is complete.
3/

A little about #axxaVC: $AXXA #VC company invests in a range of technologies including #Robotics, Hardware, IT, #Health & #Biotech, and #VR and #AI technologies. These are areas where the direct application of technology makes a real, measurable difference in people's lives.
4/

$AXXA The #VC subsidiary company that just received its Second Round funding develops #Virtual #Reality (#VR), #Augmented #Reality (AR), and #Mixed #Reality (#MR) technologies. Their #technologies are cost-effective motion trackers for multiplayer full immersion #VR zones.
5/

First they came for the 🐟

And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust

Then they came for the 🐖 farmers and 🐷 exports

And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems

Next they came for the 🦪 exporters

And there the Minister wrote a letter saying 🇪🇺 was wrong, when his officials knew 🇪🇺 was right

Then the 🧪 industries worried about the 💷 of making a new database to replace REACH

They're still waiting

The 🚛🚚 operators fear that a load of vehicles are returning to 🇪🇺 empty, and volumes are down

We do not recognise the numbers, the 🇬🇧 Government says

The IPP deal is in final stages.
last week two separate meetings took place by energy and finance teams - one with the PM (on overall reforms of energy sector). The other was with the COAS - specifically on IPPs deal and CD. 1/9

Based on these meetings and IMF's nod, yesterday a proposal is shared with 50 IPPs - pre-94, 94, 2002 and 2006 policy to pay the accumulated CD to materialize IPPs MOUs into agreements. IPPs wanted (out of Rs400-450 bn dues) 1/3rd in cash and 2/3rd in PIBs in a go 2/9

Govt proposed the same in three instalments - 1/3rd in Jan,1/3rd in Jun &1/3rd in Dec. Here IPPs have to sign the agreement based on 1/3rd immediate settlement (within it 1/3rd cash and 2/3rd PIBs) and rest on promises.
But the govt promises are not honored- that is why CD is 3/9

IPPs are mainly on board. Hubco thinks that settlement will take place with some give and take. @MManshaOfficial is saying that we are on board for larger country's interest - and we can use this money for fresh investment. One can safely say that the deal is done. 4/9

Its clearing the existing stock of debt on old IPPs - last time it was done in 2013 - now the whole energy chain may pay dividends- energy stocks at #PSX are rallying today. The elephant in room is 2015 onward projects. Nothing on it yet. 5/9

Day in the Life of a Hedge Fund Analyst

Few live to tell the tale.

"Was it like Billions?"
"Describe ur investment process?"
"What did u learn?"

I get these questions all the time, but for a while I was afraid of answering publicly. No more!

Hedge fund story time.
👇
🧵/

1/ ⏰ 6AM Pre-Market Review

Wake up thinking about ur overnight positions.
What happened during London/Asia trading?
Scan the major news on ur way to office.
🏢🚕🚶‍♀️

Think about how ur getting screwed by beta (general macro, FOMC, inflation, etc.) cuz ur net long (or net short).

2/ 7AM Portfolio Review

U'll typically have ~250 names in the portfolio "universe" (stocks w/ active positions & those on watchlist but already modeled).

Review each thesis vis-a-vis new market conditions. Anything changed?
Should u downside/upsize any?
New trade opportunities?

Here's a checklist of top items to check per company:

- Any earnings calls this week?
- Any product releases?
- Any new sell-side reports? Downgrades/Upgrades?
- Any M&A rumors in the space?
- Any management change announcements?
- Any guidance revisions?
- Any legal happenings?

3/ 8AM Plan out your daily/weekly agenda

Major types of events that'll populate ur calendar:
- Investor day at XYZ
- Q1-Q4 earnings call
- XYZ road show
- Dinner event w/ IR (investor relations) at XYZ
- Private buy-side bus trip (w/ mgmt @ XYZ) arranged by GS
- JPM conference

If you don't have firsthand experience with how traditional financial institutions (pensions, corporate treasuries etc) administratively permission the moving of assets, it's hard to understand why it's still very difficult for an institution to own bitcoin. Here's why: /1

2/ I worked at an endowment for 4 years, so I'll use the example I'm most familiar with. The Uchicago endowment had $8b and a staff of ~24 when I was there. The head of the endowment is the CIO, but he can't move money or assets by himself.

3/ when he wants to transfer cash or assets (let's say to invest endowment cash in to a VC fund), it follows a carefully controlled process to avoid theft or malfeasance.

4/ the cash itself sits with a custodian. The endowment must transmit and verify instructions to the custodian in a specific way to authorize its transfer. This is typically something like a document signed by multiple parties at the endowment and a phone confirmation.

5/ This process is not all that secure given the dollar amounts in question, but it works because of the financial infrastructure plumbing. Wire transfers are reversible (short-term), and they effectively use "whitelisting."

🧵: The 10 Metrics for SaaS Startups (an Operator's Guide)

Focusing on the wrong things can kill your startup.

Based on founding and scaling @edenworkplace, here are the metrics that matter most:

Metric 1: ARR (Annualized Recurring Revenue)

You will need to know this number each day, so you'll focus on Contracted ARR in your CRM tool (as opposed to accounting ARR).

Big ARR milestones are $100K (Signal), $1 million (PMF), $10 million (Growth), $100 million (IPO Scale)

Metric 2: ARR Growth

Once you get past the Signal stage, your ARR growth is the primary determinant of future success (and valuation).

Strong annual growth rate from Signal to PMF is 4x+ and from PMF to Growth is 2.5x+.

@edenofficemagic grew 11x between Signal and PMF stages.

Metric 3: ACV (Average Customer Value)

ACV often starts low for a SaaS company (as your product is not featureful enough for large enterprises) and grows as the company moves upmarket.

ACV is calculated by taking total revenue and dividing it by your number of customer logos.

Metric 4: ACV Growth

Most SaaS companies will make ACV growth a focus.

It is fair to increase revenue per customer as you add more value to users in new features, integrations, and products.

@edenofficemagic grew ACV 2.3x last year, mostly through cross-selling new products.