!!Decode/Thread (12/31/20)

Well this could be the LAST Decode/Thread of the Year ...

... Have a Happy and Safe New Years Eve ...

...

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Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.

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The goal is simple.

You want to accumulate a *large* portfolio of assets.

How large?

Well, you should be able to quit your job. And you and your family should be able to live comfortably for decades -- just off of the income generated by this portfolio.

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This is the crux of the "FIRE" movement.

FIRE stands for "Financially Independent, Retired Early".

The basic philosophy is: keep your spending needs low. Save a large portion of your income. Invest these savings. With luck, you'll be able to retire early.

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FIRE advocates have a rule they love to cite: the 4% rule.

The 4% rule says: your annual expenses in retirement should not exceed 4% of your portfolio.

You can use this rule to calculate how large a portfolio you need to accumulate before you can quit your job and retire.

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For example, suppose you and your family need $40K/year to live comfortably in retirement.

Then you need to accumulate a portfolio that's at least $1M.

Another way to say this is: your portfolio should be at least 25 times your annual expenses in retirement.

Travelogue: Ibadan-Hills, Bottoms, Masquerades & Research

More than 15 years ago, I met an Italian who had lodged at KS Motel at Total Gardens, Ibadan.

He was in Ibadan for the first time and he was very fascinated with the city when I informed him that Rome and Ibadan shared a very unique similarity: both of them are built on seven hills. He asked me to take him round Ibadan which I did.

The seven hills are Oke Padre, Oke Ado, Oke Bola, Oke Mapo, Oke Are, Oke Sapati and Oke Mokola. But Ibadan is not just a city of hills. It is also a city of 'bottoms'. Loosely translated, 'idi' means bottom or the backside.

Several people have attached sexual innuendoes to the names. However, the actual translation indicates that some of the 'idis' indicate how the settlers converged at a point thereby leading to how they arrived at the names given.

Go round the city and you can locate Idi-Arere, Idi-Ose, Idi-Ishin, Idi-Ape, Idi-Ayunre, Idi-Obi and Idi-Ito.

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Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, we'll cover *State Quantities* and *Flow Quantities*.

This mental model can help us analyze many different entities -- from complex engineering systems to publicly traded companies.

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A "State Quantity" is something that's associated with a *specific point in time*.

For example, the number of followers a Twitter account has is a state quantity. This number can go up and down over time. But at any one *specific* time point, it's fixed.

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Similarly, the amount of cash a company has is a state quantity.

This cash balance can also rise and fall over time.

But pick any one *specific* time point -- and the company can only have one *specific* cash balance at that time point.

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By contrast, a "Flow Quantity" is something that's associated with a time *interval* rather than a time *point*.

For example, the number of followers gained by a Twitter account is a flow quantity. It's meaningful only when we specify a time interval (eg, the last 30 days).

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A simple analogy is that a State Quantity is like a photo -- a snapshot at a particular *point* in time.

But a Flow Quantity is like a video -- a record of events that take place during a particular time *interval*.

Anyone have any opinions on how self-insured employers consider innovative healthcare offerings to pass on to their employees?

As I understand it, by shouldering the financial risk, self-insured employers can curate a list of more relevant benefits ... (1/10)

... thereby avoiding paying out lofty insurance premiums for services that its employees don't use or want. There seems to be a long list of intangible benefits having to do with talent acquisition and retention, but I'd like to understand the cost equations more fully. (2/10)

In the context of multi-cancer screening, I'm skeptical that it could be cost-saving for small or medium-sized employers (<500 employees). Assuming a representative sample of the population, there are simply too few cancers and too many false positives w/ expensive ... (3/10)

... diagnostic follow-ups to bend the unit-economics in the right direction. Indeed, for larger self-insured employers, maybe on the order of thousands of employees, the dynamics may change. Each true positive is a chance to save on treatment cost and (possibly) to ... (4/10)

... extend life. However, employers won't likely be able to distinguish between true life-extension and lead-time bias without prospective, randomized studies, which are due out in the 2024-25 timeframe. Still, these likely will include interim endpoints only. (5/10)