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Saved by @tradrdoc

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

 The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.
The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.
Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).
Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.
Market for Lemons

If a seller has slightly more info than a buyer (eg used cars), it can lead to market failure:

◻️Buyer will pay price below market (b/c they can't confirm quality)
◻️High-quality sellers leave market b/c can't get good price
◻️Only low-quality sellers remain
The Potato Paradox

If you take 100lbs of potatoes which are 99% water by weight and you let it dry so that they are 98% water, their new weight is 50lbs.
The Pizza Paradox

One 18-inch pizza has more "pizza" than two 12-inch pizzas (still trying to process this fact).
Littlewood's Law of Miracles

An example of the law of large numbers: A person can expect to experience events with odds of one in a million at the rate of about once per month.

(Similarly: in a world with ~8B people, a one-in-billion event will happen 8x a month)
Queuing Paradox

If bank customers take on average 10 minutes to serve and they arrive randomly at a rate of 5.8 per hour...then the waiting time for

◻️one teller is *5 hours*
◻️two tellers is *3 minutes*

Waiting time is reduced by 93x by adding a second teller.
PS. I write interesting threads like this 1-2x a week. Follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Also check out my weekly Saturday newsletter:https://t.co/jGZs8brnVR
Sources

Here's the breakdown of the queueing theory: https://t.co/2vunn5mMTz

Check this awesome article for dozens more counterintuitive math, science + physics facts: https://t.co/8sejjm6AkH
VERY counterintuitive fact: Gabriel's Horn is a geometric figure with:

◻️ *infinite* surface area
◻️ *finite* volume
Deep dive on the Birthday Paradox https://t.co/3AAXUUVGP9

More from Trung Phan 🇨🇦

\U0001d683\U0001d69b\U0001d69e\U0001d697\U0001d690 \U0001d67f\U0001d691\U0001d68a\U0001d697 \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6
𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan
1/ Amazon is famous for its writing culture:

• "Mock press releases / FAQs" for new product pitches
• "6-page memos" instead of Powerpoint

Two former Amazon execs wrote a book called "Working Backwards" detailing the philosophy.

Here are some insights 🧵


2/ The "Working Backwards" playbook

Instead of creating a product then finding customers, Amazon asks "What does the customer need?" and works toward the product.

✅Customer need --> Create product
❌Create product --> Find customer

3/ Write a mock press release

To determine if the customer need makes biz sense, employees write a press release:

• What problem is the new product solving
• Why it's better than existing options

To persuade a customer, the document has to be jargon-free and tell a story.


4/ Press release forces big thinking

You don't write a press release for an incremental improvements.

Creating a product worthy of a press release means really solving a customer problem and going after markets with large TAMs.

5/ Include an FAQ in press release

Addressing every potential customer question can help identify hurdles to getting something to market...and also uncover opportunities.
CULTURE
Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6
Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan
At 40, Jim Simons left a famed math career to launch the most successful hedge fund ever: Renaissance Tech.

Even though it only won 51% of trades, the fund made 66%/yr for 30yrs (Simons worth = $25B). It's a story of genius, but also of how hard it is to beat markets.

THREAD🧵


1/ The crown jewel of RenTech is The Medallion Fund (launched in 1988).

◻️ From 1988-2018, it posted a return of 66%/yr (39% after fees)
◻️$1 invested in 1988 is now worth $14m+
◻️ Cumulative profit = $100B+ even with an avg. fund size of only $4.5B


2/ Before creating what Bloomberg calls the “greatest money-making machine ever”, Simons was a legendary mathematician.


3/ While at Stony Brook, Simons started trading commodities (with money staked by former MIT classmates).

The side investing was good enough that Simons -- also going through a divorce -- decided to leave academia and launch his own money management firm in 1978: Monemetrics.

4/ At the time, there were 2 main investment approaches:

◻️ Fundamental (understanding and forecasting an asset based on key drivers)
◻️ Technical analysis (studying price charts)

Simons’ strategy was to place a “fundamental lens” on currencies (eg. supply and demand).
ALL
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Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6
Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan
For decades, Jeff Bezos shunned ads.

But now, Amazon’s ad business is huge: it’s on a $30B+ annual run rate (more than 2x the combined sales of Twitter, Snap and Pinterest).

Here’s how it happened 🧵


1/ Amazon doesn’t break out its ad business separately in financial filings. However, most analyst believe ads make up the majority of its “Other” revenue segment.

This figure has exploded from $1B in 2015 to a current annual run rate of ~$32B.


2/ In 2009, Bezos said “ads are the price you pay for a crappy product”.

But the business is so lucrative that Amazon’s interface has been swamped with ads:

◻️ First 3-7 search results (left in red)
◻️ Most of the product page (right in blue)


3/ Prior to the rise of ads, Amazon set out to build the ultimate organic customer recommendations engine.

The approach was codified in a famed 2003 research paper: “Amazon Recommendations: Item-to-Item Collaborative Filtering.”


4/ In recent years, Amazon organic recommendations:

◻️"Customers who bought this also bought this"
◻️"Customers who viewed also viewed"

Have been replaced w/ ads:

◻️ "Sponsored products related to"
◻️ "Brands related to this category"
TECH
Trung Phan
Trung Phan
@TrungTPhan
Steve Jobs famously said innovation is "saying no to 1000 things" before you say yes.

For more than a decade, Apple has used Pablo Picasso's Bull to drive home the lesson.

Here's a breakdown 🧵


In Dec. 1945, Picasso created "The Bull", a series of 11 lithographs (stone prints).

With each successive print, a bull is simplified and abstracted. Picasso's goal was to find "spirit of the beast".

At Apple, employees are taught this philosophy.


Below are the 1st, 4th and last stone print.

The bull progresses from:
◻️a realistic drawing
◻️to a deconstructed image w/ the famous "abstract" style
◻️to lines outlining a shape

Through 11 iterations, Picasso simplified the image until it captured the "essence" of the bull.


Picasso said of the abstraction process:

"Two holes. That’s the symbol for the face, enough to evoke it without representing it. But isn’t it strange that it can be done through such simple means? Whatever is most abstract may perhaps be the summit of reality.”


Enter Apple University.

In 2008, Steve Jobs tapped the dean of Yale School of Management to create an internal training curriculum for Apple.

The program was meant to teach new employees Apple's culture and design philosophy (the teachings are rarely shared with the public).
ALL
\U0001d683\U0001d69b\U0001d69e\U0001d697\U0001d690 \U0001d67f\U0001d691\U0001d68a\U0001d697 \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6
𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan
1/ Marcus Bullock went to prison in the mid-90s at the age of 15.

Today, he's the CEO of Flikshop -- the "Instagram for the Incarcerated", an alternative to the outrageously expensive phone call system.

This is a truly inspirational founder story 👇👇


2/ In 1996, Bullock was living in Maryland. One night, he and a friend carried out an armed carjacking on a man sitting idle in a shopping mall parking lot.

It was the biggest mistake of this life.

3/ Several years prior to hit actions, there was the famed 1989 Central Park "Jogger Case", in which 5 minority youths were (falsely) accused of raping a jogger.

In the aftermath, nearly every state passed new laws that made it easier for courts to try youth as adults.


4/ For the carjacking, Bullock was charged as an adult and served 8 years in prison.

With onerous prison phone charges ($18 / 15 mins), Bullock's mother kept in touch with him by sending a photo or letter every day.

"She saved me," he says of his mom's efforts.


5/ The $1.2B+ prison phone system is dominated by 2 PE-backed firms (Global Tel Link, Securus Tech).

For the right to operate these phones lines, prisons effectively pay kickbacks to state and local government. The highest kickbacks win bids, which drive up costs.
CULTURE

More from Finance

Investment Books
Investment Books
@InvestmentBook1
Mega Thread on Personal Finance 101

👇👇👇

Rule of 72 (Double Your Money)
Rule of 114 (Triple)
Rule of 144 (Quadruple)
Rule of 70 (Inflation)
4% Withdrawal Rule
100 - Minus Age Rule
10, 5, 3 Rule
50-30-20 Rule
3X Emergency Rule
40℅ EMI Rule
Life Insurance Rule

♻ Rule of 72

No. of yrs required to double your money at a given rate, U just divide 72 by interest rate
Eg, if U want to know how long it will take to double your money at 8% interest, divide 72 by 8 and get 9 yrs

At 6% rate, it will take 12 yrs
At 9% rate, it will take 8 yrs

📋Rule of 114

No. of years required to triple your money at a given rate, U just divide 114 by interest rate.

For example, if you want to know how long it will take to triple your money at 12% interest, divide 114 by 12 and get 9.5 years

At 6% interest rate, it will take 19yrs

🗒️ Rule of 144

No. of years required to, quadruple your money at a given rate, U just divide 144 by interest rate.

For eg, if U want to know how long it will take to quadruple your money at 12% interest, divide 144 by 12 and get 12 yrs

At a 6% interest rate, it will take 24yrs

🗒️ Rule of 70

Divide 70 by the current inflation rate to know how fast the value of your investment will get reduced to half its present value.

The inflation rate of 7% will reduce the value of your money to half in 10 years.
FINANCE , PERSONAL FINANCE , PERSONAL GROWTH
Simon Lelieveldt
Simon Lelieveldt
@finhstamsterdam
The Dutch regulator and DNB as financial supervisor are a tough cookie to deal with. In essence they hyperregulate EU-rules into goldplated Dutch rules which go beyond what is prescribed in Europe.

All NL-customers at British banks may thus be kicked out on brexit.

Thread

/1

If we start with the capital requirements directive, it says attracting deposits is forbidden. In article 9.

https://t.co/RYl7SXligC


Now the translation of that rule into Dutch law is slightly expanded to not only prohibit attracting deposits, but to also prohibit, having those deposits under custody ('ter beschikking hebben').

That's not in EU law, but it is in our Dutch law.

https://t.co/PsbWfNY3PA


So if you wonder how this would work out for UK banks and Payment institutions servicing Dutch customers. Have a read at the technical explanation of DNB, the financial supervisor and their summarising table.

https://t.co/LL0fAnYkRJ

Passive servicing of Dutch is not allowed!


Any bank or PSP in the UK that continues to serve Dutch customers (as in retail customers, professional players are excepted) can thus be subject to fines and policing under Dutch law.

Meaning we not only have Accidental American issues in payments, but also Accidental Dutchies
FINANCE
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Money Theory
Money Theory
@money_theory
Some interesting snippets from @MotilalOswalLtd 25th Wealth Creation Study:

(A Short thread)

1. Consumer/Retail is the biggest wealth-creating sector over 25 years.


2. Almost 60 of the top 100 market cap companies in 1995 did not make it to the Wealth Creators list.


3.Corporate profit to GDP at all-time lows + Market cap to GDP close to an all-time high.


4. Permanent change in the long term interest rate band is leading to a change in valuation expectations.


5. Twenty-five stocks for the next twenty-five years. Read the Disclaimer.
FINANCE
Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian
@EPBResearch
Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in


The full thread can be reviewed here:


Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!

Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate

3/


Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.

4/


So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *

This is a key point.

5/
FINANCE
The Better India
The Better India
@thebetterindia
(1/14) The World Bank’s 2017 report titled ‘Precarious Drop’ pointed out how nearly 20 million Indian women were ‘missing’ from the workforce during 2004-2012.


(2/14) While media reports and headlines might have put the onus on women themselves, it is hard to ignore that there are many challenges that hinder women from rejoining the workforce post a career-break taken for several reasons, including childbirth.

(3/14) Out of those who manage to rejoin the workforce, many women eventually drop out in less than 6 months. This was due to “lack of awareness about inclusivity” in corporate offices in the ’90s, points out Dr Saundarya, someone who chose to be the solution to this problem.

(4/14) Having experienced all the challenges of a returning female professional, she founded Avtar in 2000, as a diversity and inclusion platform that helps women get a second shot at building their careers.

(5/14) And, recently, in November 2020, she expanded her focus through MyAvtar — a job portal for people from marginalised backgrounds, to include the LGBTQ+ community as well.
FINANCE

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On the occasion of youtube 20k and Twitter 70k members

A small tribute/gift to members

Screeners

technical screeners - intraday and positional both

before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too

thank you

positional one

run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels

1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht

2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB

3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2

4- Bullish from last 5

intraday screeners

5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv

6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G

7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo

Thank you
SCREENERS , ALL , NAKULSMIX
Delilah S. Dawson
Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson
So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

Every now and then an idea sticks with me like that corner of tortilla chip that just won't go down your throat. It happened with SPARROWHAWK, which began as 40k of a YA story, died, and was reborn as a comic, thanks to @christopher_j_r and @boomstudios. And now... 2/

It's happening with THE WILLOWS, a short story that you'll see in @UncannyMagazine next year. This Southern Gothic horror story began as an attempt to sell my next Romance to @AbZurdity after the Blud books in 2014 or so. And she didn't buy it. Guess why? 3/

Turns out, it wasn't a Romance! It was Southern Gothic Horror. Even the bones of it screamed strangeness, not sexiness. I loved the taste of the world, but I hadn't found the right story yet. Tried to write it 2 more times and failed. Until I finally understood what it was. 4/

So I took the 50 pages I'd written and cut half of them, twisting the story around from a gothy Romance inspired by the band the Civil Wars and turned it into a spooky descent into madness. And it looked back at me from the abyss as if to say, DUH. Sometimes... 5/
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
WEAPONS OF MAHADEV

Sarvaripati Shiva is one of the most fearsome manifestations of Mahadev. Assigned with destroying all of the universes at the end of time, Shiva is one of the most fearsome warriors. He is the Mrityunjaya.
Here are some weapons associated with him:


TRISHULA: the 3 pointed blades denote creation, maintenance, and destruction or the 3 Kalas – Past, Present and Future. They also represent 3 Gunas – Sattva, Rajas and Tamas).
Shiva’s trishul can only be stopped by Shiva himself.
@onlyonenetra @DetheEsha


Trishul is also said to represent Ida, Pingala, and Sushumna. These are the three basic nadis – the left, the right and the central – in the pranamaya kosha, or the energy body of the human system.
@iamkamyabuch @unever_followme


PARASHU: axe with 4 cutting edges which Shiva gave to Parashurama. In his anger, Parashurama used the parashu to get rid of the all the Earth’s tyrannical kshatriya caste twenty-one times over.
@harshasherni


CHANDRAHASA SWORD: The divine sword Chandrahasa literally means ‘the laughter of the moon’. Ravana gave this sword to Indrajit on different occasions especially to fight against Devas.
GIRISH: A special sword of Shiva with unique characteristics.
ALL
Ranvijay Singh\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Ranvijay Singh🇮🇳...
@ranvijayT90
#Thread The legend of Ekadash Mukhi Hanuman ji...


Mahadev himself narrated the story of Ekadash Mukhi Hanuman ji to Maa Parvati. Once a great monster named Kalkarmukh performed the severe penance of Brahma ji.


Pleased with the austerity of the demon, Brahma ji gave him a boon that the person who will have eleven Heads like you and who was born on the day of your birth, only he/she will be able to kill you. No one else will kill you.


After getting a boon from Brahma ji, Kalkarmukh created a ruckus in all three lok. He invaded Swarg and snatched all the rights of the Devtas and became himself the king of Swarg.


All Devtagan came to Shri Rama and asked him for help. Hearing the agony of the Devtagan, Shri Ram called his supreme devotee Hanuman ji and said, "Pawan Putra, Sankatmochan".
HANUMANBHAKTI
Reagan Gomez
Reagan Gomez
@ReaganGomez
Black movie goers know which movies are for us and which films aren’t. We really don’t like our stories being made into films that center (and humanize) people that hate us. The filmmakers/studio know that by naming the film “The Green Book”, black movie goers...

...are going to be expecting a story about black people trying to safely navigate the country (real history) and instead will get a white savior film. Like folks went to see Detroit thinking it was about the riots...

Anywhoo, I know Mahershela is fantastic in it. He was the best thing about the trailer. As rich as the history behind the creation of ‘The Green Book’ is/was, as amazing as Dr. Don Shirley’s story is, WHY is this film about a random, racist driver and his family?

This feeds into the ignorant anti-Black American stereotype of “Black Americans don’t have any culture/history/mythology” or whatever. That our stories are still both being used while simultaneously erased in 2018 is wild to me. It’s gonna clean up come award season. 🤦🏾‍♀️

And now, if black filmmakers WANTED to make a film about The Greenbook, guess what it can’t be called🙃. Just like if someone wanted to make a film about the actual Detroit riots, guess what it can’t be called? Then those filmmakers would run into...
CULTURE