BC FINANCE
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A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

 Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of time.

https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input
I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets
This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
These periods are determined by backtesting over a set of data and finding the best fit for that market.
Now the problem is, what has worked on the past set is on the past set. There is no guarantee that it will work in the future. As markets change, what do we do ?
We continuously change the timeframe based on the best fit on some backdata ? ( continuous optimization)

A few lines of code on python can do this ( choosing some X period of backdata, identifying the best fit and applying them the next day).
We can term it as ML, AI, neural net whatever, but the fact remains it's glorified curve fitting. Chances of such approach working are at best, random.
I walked on a completely different path after going through everything. Rather than backtesting, I decided to forward test. Small trades with my own money and posting the levels on twitter. If the levels did not work, the feedback on twitter would obviously be negative.
If the levels were of importance, then also twitter would provide me the required feedback from hundreds of traders.
Hence I started posting on twitter
Hence, you see the Ranges and Balance everyday. There is another element in this study which I so far have not posted, a BIAS. A BIAS is simply whether you should be bullish or bearish for the day. Will start posting that too from next week after I make the requisite changes
I have always believed in sharing codes or logic. But my experiences on social media have made me realise, that these codes gets repackaged/pirated and sold/used. The same people then come after me including the self- proclaimed quants.
So no free lunch ( free open code), if someone is that smart let him/her work in identifying how I am doing this. I will not utter a single word on the construction as some very smart people on my twitter timeline can then work in deciphering the code / approach.
From next week, will be posting the the levels with BIAS.
Will also write a detailed article/manual on how to use the levels in intraday trading .

Thank you for reading through my rant :)

More from Subhadip Nandy

Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Views, buy/sell signals, entry systems are over rated.

Execution and trade management skills are under-rated.

A thread

You buy 4 lots of TataConsmr 710 CE at 24, SL 18
( Risk = R = 6 points)

TataCon 710CE goes upto 30. What do you do ?

( this is where the 4 lots minimum comes into play)

1. You sqoff 2 lots. rest 2 you put SL at 24

2. You sqoff 2 lots, you put 1 lot SL at 24, another lot at 18
3. You sqoff 2 lots, sell 2 lots of higher strikes CE , say 730/740 and covert to a bull spread

In all the cases, you have taken some profit off the table ensuring you do not lose money on this trade while keeping yourself open for more profits in case it goes up more.
I have given you a gist of what you learn in various money management / position sizing books.
Use this.
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
My experiences in trading through various international locha events, high VIX and various events.
A thread

I follow the news, but never think of myself smart enough to predict what is finally going to happen. I am not a geopolitical expert, smarter brains than me are analyzing and acting on the news

Their actions are reflected on price, volume, OI. Following the data keeps me at par with the latest news

Be ready to cut your existing positions ruthlessly when data changes, be ready to absorb the loss and get out of the position. Never hold onto with hope.
Never works

Reduce trading volumes. Higher the volatility, lower the trade size.
Use lower volumes and bigger stops to counter the volatility
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
@Random37938918 @nuraniraj This is a paid course, extremely economically priced. This covers MFI in detail, check if you are
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance


EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900


BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows


BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet


Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Time I retweeted this 😃
SUBHADIP DADA IV THREAD , IV THREAD SUBHADIP DADA

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As the DeFi bull market continues, some brutally honest tips for new founders fundraising in crypto.

👇


1/ The discount you offer to strategic investors is both to account for the risk of an unlaunched product, but also as compensation for continued value add and support.

So make sure you know the investor will support you and not leave you on read once the docs are signed!

2/ Having someone on your cap table/ token allocation is as important as hiring.

You wouldn't hire someone just because they are influencers on Twitter- you do your reference checks and find evidence of value add from other companies the investor has invested in.

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Many investors will promise you the world when they're trying to get on your cap table.

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1/x Since I promised a few investors outside Sweden/Nordics to look deeper into $CDON, with my negative customer biases aside, here's a short thread;

Let's first go through the negatives


2/x I really understand the excitement when you put on the "local dominant marketplace"-glasses and start comparing CDON multiples to the likes of $AMZN, $MELI, $SE or whatever. But with boots on the ground I can assure you, that they are *nothing* of the sort. At least yet.

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4/x Unfortunately the brand is very much on decline (especially among young ppl) since the website has been mistreated for years and years, so I think they have to work extremely hard on building trust + enhance customer experience to even have a change long term.

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Prashant Shah
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@Prashantshah267
Thread: Central Pivot Range (CPR)

CPR is another popular tool. Three lines are plotted on the chart when we plot CPR.

The three lines are: CPR, TC and BC.

Let’s understand the calculation.


You may recall that I explained the calculation of Pivot levels in an earlier thread. CPR stands for Central Pivot Range. It is always a center line of the three lines that gets plotted in the chart.

CPR is a Pivot price. Pivot is average of HLC as explained in the prev thread.


We also discussed about Mid-range of the session. Mid-range is average of High and low price of the session.

The mid-range of the bar is known as BC in the CPR calculation. BC stands for Bottom central pivot.


Pivot level captures the relationship of the closing price to the range of the session.

Pivot price above mid-price = bullish pivot
Pivot price below mid-price = bearish pivot


So, CPR line is Pivot and BC line is Mid-range.

What is the difference between both?
Mid-range is average of High and Low.

Pivot is average of High, Low and Close.
What will make the difference between the two?

Close.
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Subhadip Nandy
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@SubhadipNandy16
Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.


This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
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