Today’s GDP release, and in particular how the economy has adapted, a thread.👇

After 6 months of growth, the economy started shrinking again in November as tighter restrictions were in place. (Though there were variations across Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.) (1/n)

The economy shrank by 2.6% in November. In normal times this would be a significant downturn, but it is much smaller than the falls seen with the first restrictions in the spring: April GDP fell by around 20%. In that sense it is good news. But why the smaller fall? (2/n)

Firstly, some industries remain very depressed. Airlines (air transport in the chart) for example, were operating at very low levels in October so there wasn’t much further for their output to fall. This is different from the picture in Mar/Apr. (3/n)

The same is true, though perhaps less pronounced, for bars/restaurants and other parts of the service sector. (4/n)

Waste, Negligence & Cronyism: Inside UK’s Pandemic Spending - The New York Times

I see the US has picked up the UK Pandemic spending scandal whilst our Gov claims there’s nothing to see ⁦@JolyonMaugham⁩ ⁦@DamianHastie⁩ ⁦@allthecitizens⁩

Of the $22billion contracts awarded about $11 billion went to companies either run by friends and associates of politicians in the Conservative Party, or with no prior experience or a history of controversy. Meanwhile, smaller firms without political clout got nowhere.

Seven months on just over half the contracts awarded remain hidden from the public.

But 1 in 10 contracts that went through the Government’s VIP Crony lane were awarded compared to 1 in 100 through the ordinary lane.

What’s our anti corruption Tzar, Dido Harding’s husband, John Penrose, doing about it? (You couldn’t make it up).

The thing is, they think it is perfectly normal. I mean, they get the contracts because they are mates & donors who just happen to be better than the little folk.

Meanwhile companies like Multibrand who actually manufacture PPE just got ignored..

🧵THREAD 🧵As it's the start of a new year, there seems to be a lot more calls for freelance pitches about. If you're thinking of pitching for the first time, or wanted a refresher, here are some of the things I find useful. /1

First up, finding work – here's what I use to find calls for pitches each week. But you can easily search these yourself or set them up as columns in your TweetDeck. Use quote marks so it searches for the exact phrasing. /2

I also try to keep a note of places making call outs that I don't immediately have ideas for – they're probably going to be swamped fairly quickly, but now you know they have budget – and they'll be less swamped if you come back to them in a month with a belter of an idea. /3

In weird Covid times, this is also a really helpful spreadsheet from @studyhallxyz on who is and isn't accepting pitches atm. This kind of stuff is often just useful to give you ideas of places you didn't realise you could pitch. /4

If you can't find an editor's email address, my favourite tool is @EmailHunter which shows you the format of an email address at any organisation, so you can take a best guess. 50 free searches a month. /5

Thread on the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact:

1. In August, 1939, Stalin called on the UK and France to form an anti-fascist alliance. It was only after they rejected this proposal that the USSR signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to buy time in order to prepare for the war.

2. Getting sick and tired of gentrified "leftists" claiming that Stalin and Hitler "divided up Poland." What it meant was that either side crossing the line of the rivers Narev, Vistula and San would be seen as an invasion of the other country.

3. By the time the USSR entered Poland, the Polish government was already in exile and thus there was no Polish state. The Red Army's entry into Poland was therefore not an invasion.

4. Furthermore, the Polish government-in-exile declared war on Germany when it invaded Poland, but did not declare war on the Soviet Union when the Red Army entered. Additionally, the Polish Army was ordered to not fight the Soviets.

5. France had a mutual defense treaty with Poland, but it did not declare war on the Soviet Union. Another funny thing that people seem to forget is that prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a bunch of countries signed similar agreements with the Germany: UK, France, POLAND, etc

1⃣
The $600 Trojan Horse
1. $300,000,000 for Migrant and Refugee Assistance
2 $10,000 per person for student loan bailout
3. $100,000,000 to NASA, because, who knows why
4. $20,000,000,000 to the USPS, because why not
5. $300,000,000 to the Endowment for the Arts why stop here

Key Highlights from the Union Budget 2021, as presented by the Hon’ble Finance Minister.

Direct Taxes -
• Vivad Se Viswas Scheme Last Date of filing extended to 28th February 2021.
• Citizens of age 75 years and above who have only Pension and Interest income – Need not file👇

Income Tax Returns
• Re-opening of Assessment to reduced to 3 years from 6 years. Only where evidence of concealment of income of Rs. 50 lakhs or more – re-opening can be made up to 10 years & only with the approval of Pr.CCIT.
👇

• Reducing Litigation for small taxpayers – Constitution of Faceless Dispute Resolution Panel for people with Total Income up to Rs.50 lakh and disputed income of Rs.10 lakh
• Income Tax Appellate Tribunal to become Faceless – Only electronic communication will be done
👇

• Relaxation to NRIs – Rules to remove hardship of Double Taxation
• Tax Audit Limit to be increased to Rs.10 crores from Rs.5 crores for those having less than 5% cash transactions
• Dividend Tax- Dividend will be exempt from TDS. Advance tax liability on dividend income
👇

will arise only after the declaration or payment of the dividend. For Foreign Investors – a lower treaty rate benefit will be given.
• Affordable Housing – Additional Interest deduction (Sec 80EEA) of Rs.1.5 lakhs to be extended for loans taken till 31st March 2022.
👇

1) Get used to the following term: “budget reconciliation.”

This is the special parliamentary process President Biden and Congressional Democrats plan to use to advance the next coronavirus relief package. It will likely take a few weeks just to move such a COVID-19 measure.

2) But an understanding of the process may shed light on the policy – and the political realities of Capitol Hill.

President Biden and Democrats in Congress have long memories about how Republicans responded to big legislative initiatives in 2009.

3) The country reeled after the financial crisis. But many Republicans made a pact to reject a stimulus package to help boost the economy. Later that year and in early 2010, Republicans also voted nearly in lockstep against Obamacare.

4) Right or wrong, Democrats felt they waited for Republicans to help out. But were met with blockades and political opposition at every turn. Democrats are wary that they can count on GOP support this year. They still feel the sting of 12 years ago.

5) And that’s why Democrats may go it mostly alone on their next COVID-19 relief measure.

That’s where budget reconciliation kicks in.

Republicans are already complaining that Democrats aren’t working with them on the next COVID bill.

It's out! The @EU_Commission winter economic forecast for 2021 📊
🇪🇸 +5.6% GDP
🇫🇷 +5.5% GDP
🇭🇷 +5.6% GDP
🇸🇮 +4.7% GDP
🇲🇹 +4.5% GDP
🇵🇹 +4.1% GDP
🇸🇰 +4.0% GDP
🇭🇺 +4.0% GDP
🇧🇪 +3.9% GDP
🇷🇴 +3.8% GDP
💶 +3.8% GDP
🇪🇺 +3.7% GDP
🇬🇷 +3.5% GDP
🇱🇻 +3.5% GDP
🇮🇪 +3.4% GDP
🇮🇹 +3.2% GDP

🇩🇪 +3.2% GDP
🇨🇾 +3.2% GDP
🇱🇺 +3.2% GDP
🇨🇿 +3.2% GDP
🇵🇱 +3.1% GDP
🇩🇰 +2.9% GDP
🇫🇮 +2.8% GDP
🇧🇬 +2.7% GDP
🇸🇪 +2.7% GDP
🇪🇪 +2.6% GDP
🇱🇹 +2.2% GDP
🇦🇹 +2.0% GDP
🇳🇱 +1.8% GDP

Vs📈 2020:

🇪🇸 -11.0% GDP
🇬🇷 -10.0% GDP
🇲🇹 - 9.0% GDP
🇭🇷 - 8.9% GDP
🇮🇹 - 8.8% GDP
🇫🇷 - 8.3% GDP
🇵🇹 - 7.6% GDP
🇦🇹 - 7.4% GDP
💶 - 6.8% GDP
🇪🇺 - 6.3% GDP
🇧🇪 - 6.2% GDP
🇸🇮 - 6.2% GDP
🇸🇰 - 5.9% GDP
🇨🇾 - 5.8% GDP
🇨🇿 - 5.7% GDP
🇭🇺 - 5.3% GDP
🇩🇪 - 5.0% GDP
🇷🇴 - 5.0% GDP
🇧🇬 - 4.9% GDP

🇳🇱 - 4.1% GDP
🇱🇻 - 3.5% GDP
🇩🇰 - 3.5% GDP
🇱🇺 - 3.1% GDP
🇫🇮 - 3.1% GDP
🇮🇪 - 3.0% GDP
🇪🇪 - 2.9% GDP
🇸🇪 - 2.9% GDP
🇵🇱 - 2.8% GDP
🇱🇹 - 0.9% GDP

Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni says the forecast is based on the assumption that restrictive measures to contain the #coronavirus will be eased in the second quarter of 2021.

1. One of the reasons that i love talking about planning and infrastructure so much is because a lot of folks don't realize how certain municipalities are planned out and zoned to intentionally heighten segregation and disparities. When suburbs were originally formed, they were

2. Planned around the automobile, because that made it easier to keep certain demographics (i.e. Black, Brown and Native) from moving there. There were and still are zoning laws that would only allow only one house per developer lot to be built, which means a limited stock of

3. Housing, which makes affordable housing hard to find. Additionally, things like height requirements (not being allowed to build above a certain number of feet) was another method of limiting housing. These were some of the reasons that a lot of suburbs remained very white up

4. Until the 1980's/1990's. Once homes in suburbs became accessible due to policies becoming lax in regards to affordable housing, one would think that the problem of exclusion via planning has been solved, but you start to run up against a whole slate of new problems. As Black

5. And brown folks moved into innner-ring suburbs, white folks would tend to move even FARTHER out into the exurbs, which meant the tax base which supported these first ring suburbs would close to. This meant that businesses would leave too because of course they're going to

The French Govt has adopted its draft law on “strengthening Republican values” which has already provoked so much anger – & distortion, frankly – in parts of Muslim world & US media. At least now we can have a debate on what’s actually in the bill. Some thoughts post presser 1/

The text mentions no religion by name & will apply to all faiths but the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, presenting the law at a presser this afternoon, made it clear that “radical Islamism” – not Islam - was the intended target 2/

“This text is not aimed at any religion or at the Muslim religion specifically,” Castex said . “It’s a law of emancipation from religious fanaticism.” 3/

One person’s “fanaticism” is, of course, another person’s “devout faith”.  Parts of the draft law may be open to question or quibbling. But there is nothing, imo, that can be fairly described as an attack on Islam itself. 4/

Crucially, the Fr Govt has (after weeks of silence) remembered another key part of Macron’s speech in October which promised this new law. There will be new action - including more social housing, more widely spread - to relieve pressure on the struggling, multi-racial suburbs 5/

Lot of comment on RBI becoming Pro Growth & keeping Inflation in back ground. Few Points to ponder.
- Inflation is being pushed on back burner globally. ECB moved from Inflation to Growth long back. US Fed has publicly stated to tolerate higher Inflation.

RBI pre Inflation targeting framework was managing Growth, Inflation, Govt Borrowing, Rupee and Financial stability remarkably well. Nobel Laurate Joseph Stiglitz complemented RBI stating that US Sub prime crisis would have been averted if Dr Reddy was US Fed Governor.

Despite stupendous success of the RBI in managing conflicting needs of Indian Economy, Inflation Targetting Framework was established without proper definition/measurement of Inflation.

This was like attributing credit of Mahabharat Victory to Single minded focus of Arjun (could only see Bird's eye while shooting arrow) than all round guidance of Shree Krishna.

Oddly Central Banks around the world are now following RBI in managing conflicting objectives as per the need of economy.

2021 NEW YEAR MESSAGE
Happy New Year Dear Compatriots and friends across the world.
This is the beginning of a new journey, a new chapter, a fresh opportunity to start and recover from the losses of 2020.

Last year was a challenging year, characterized by tales of misfortunes, deaths and illnesses. It was a tough moment for many homes and families owing to the unfortunate #COVID19 .

The pandemic plagued our world with many consequences, causing hardship and other forms of insecurity.

2020 was a year of many challenges and struggles both as individuals and as a nation. From #COVID19 to #EndSarsProtests, we witnessed disruptions in our cultures, economy, livelihoods and life itself.

These unfortunate events should propel us to re-examine ourselves, re-evaluate our priorities and commit ourselves to new norms, new cultures and new traditions.

1. Ok, so most people have a vague sense of frustration that the last Dem administration didn't do enough on the economy. But it's still just a vague sense. So my org wrote a report showing in detail, industry sector-by-sector, what policymakers did wrong.

2. We also wrote one pager descriptions of every sector. For instance, in media and telecommunications, there were multiple massive mergers (Comcast-NBC, Disney's roll-up, Charter-Time Warner).

3. Consequences were bad. The median weekly compensation of writer-producers on television and online series declined 23 percent between 2014 and 2016 despite record profits in the industry and peak demand for programming.

4. Health care, consolidation was bad. "From 2010 to 2015, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly raised their insulin prices by 168 percent, 169 percent, and 325 percent, respectively; the three are essentially the only manufacturers of insulin in the U.S."


5. Newspapers, same story. Since 2005, America has lost 2,100 newspapers, one fourth of its total, leaving 1,800 communities without any local news coverage whatsoever.

Expect to see a lot more stories like this. But let's also use this to have a more sophisticated conversation about why the rising tide of cheaper, cleaner energy - like all prior energy transitions - doesn't necessarily lift all boats. Brief thread:

1/ First to state the obvious: the domestic fossil fuel industry in the US wouldn't exist without massive subsidies. $650B/year according to the IMF.

2/ That in turn means that the transition to cleaner, cheaper energy is delayed by those market distortions. Taking away the subsidies is smart economic and environmental policy. It is FANTASTIC that @POTUS is doing so.

3/ But it is paternalistic and naive to assume that workers in those displaced industries will have an easy transition. Knowing how to run an oil rig is a highly specialized, highly skilled job. Gaining that skill set takes time and is geographically specific

4/ The fact that there will be economic gains in other sectors doesn't imply that a 55 year old who planned to work for another 10 years can simply take a correspondence course in thin film deposition and move to the solar industry.