BC ECONOMY
Saved by @ThomassRichards

Long rant: This @WSJ article bemoaning the decline of price theory is really worth highlighting. The economic theories and so called "laws of economics" that the WSJ consistently and religiously defends, are the source of their authority, power and privilege.

 So called economic "theories" like "you get paid exactly what you are worth" and "markets are perfectly efficient" and "when wages rise, jobs fall" and "raising taxes on the rich kills jobs and growth" and "increasing justice decreases economic efficiency" and...
"Government intervention in markets always creates more harm than good" and "any regulation that constrains corporations kills growth and productivity", etc etc are effectively a protection racket for the rich. It is a set of internally consistent and mathematized conjectures...
That are all demonstrably nonsense. But getting people to accept these "theories" as laws of nature and immutable, timeless truths is the most effective way our current economic elites have found to maintain and enhance the status of the powerful and persuade the weak and poor...
to shut the fuck up and accept their lot in life. Now, FINALLY, some economists- are actually beginning to look at the real world evidence to determine whether these propositions actually describe anything real here on planet earth. Let me save you some time. The answer is NO.
For perspective, so called economic theory predicts that there is effectively an inverse mechanical relationship between wages and jobs- as in, if you raise the min wage, the number of jobs must fall. The overwhelming consensus of economists 20 years ago was that this was true.
But here is the unforgivable thing. NO ONE checked until 1994!-when Alan Krueger and Andrew Card actually counted up the jobs and "discovered" there was no such relationship. The WSJ ran an editorial at the time characterizing these guys as "a bevy of camp-following whores" ..
for challenging this orthodoxy. I'm not kidding. Why? because if the neoclassical/neoliberal orthodoxy gets challenged, the whole social order that so benefits the people who read and publish the WSJ comes crashing down. Because if....
people are not paid what they are worth, but rather what they have the power to negotiate, then maybe low wages aren't fair, they are exploitation. And if, when wages rise, so do the number of jobs, then why wouldn't we raise wages- a lot!
The implications of the collapse of this neoliberal orthodoxy for the wealth of the wealthy run into the trillions of dollars-PER YEAR. So it is no surprise that the WSJ clings to these so called theories with religious, fanatical intensity.
The historian @harari_yuval points out that one of the iron laws of history is that the narratives that define the social order are always anchored by one of two claims: either "God says", or "It's a law of nature". The biggest lie of neoliberalism is that these orthodox claims..
are unchallengeable, immutable laws of nature. This is total nonsense. Economics is a choice. No laws of nature are violated if a society, through law, policy and norm, requires the powerful to treat the weak slightly better. Which is all raising the minimum wage really is.
This is NOT to say that all economic arrangements are equally value creating. Markets, if reasonable well managed by democracies, are the best social technology ever invented for increasing human prosperity and enabling human capability.
But the WSJ's version of markets is corrupt, exploitive and bankrupt. And the theoretical framework that underlies that version needs to be defeated and replaced by one that more accurately reflects what science actually says about...
human nature, the dynamics of human social systems like economies, what prosperity really is, and where it comes from. So when someone tells you, you just don't understand the "laws" of economics, you are almost certainly being scammed. End of rant.

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2/ Don’t think of doing this unless you have a record of successful deals, ideally mostly/all in the same asset class / strategy.

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5/ Find an experienced CPA. Ideally, your existing CPA has worked on a lot of private deals before. If not, get a new one. Prospective LPs need confidence that someone good is overseeing the bookkeeping and doing the tax prep.
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2/ In the words of @RayDalio, "Right now, the world’s major central banks have the least fuel in their tanks since the late 1930s so are now in the later stages of the long-term debt cycle. Because they come along about once in a lifetime most people aren’t aware of them."


3/ Central banks have spent the last decade in a race to see who could devalue their currency the fastest. Near 0% interest rates have meant increased printing of the dollar, euro, and yen. Central banks no longer have the ability to tighten credit so they print money.


4/ Being towards the later stages of the long-term debt cycle there is a global sovereign debt bubble similar to what we saw in the 20's & 30's. In 2019, global debt-to-gdp hit 322% with total debt reaching a new all-time high of $253 Trillion.


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Latest @SouledOutWorld articles:
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All in one convenient location to access.


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@sohamdas
On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:

https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0

Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)


On September 30, 2020, I wrote an article for @CFASocietyIndia where I explained that RBI is all set to lose its ability to set interest rates if it continues to fiddle with the exchange rate (2/n)

What do I mean, "fiddle with the exchange rate"?

In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"

RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)

First in March 2020, it opened a Dollar/INR swap of $2B with far leg to be unwound in September 2020.

Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)

The Second aspect is now, that dollar inflow is happening, and the forex reserves swelled -> implying the rupee is appreciating, RBI again intervened from September, by selling INR in spot markets. (5/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM
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** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

1/13

The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
2/13

In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
3/13

But they had popular hero figures (Laffer, Moore), and an eager political audience that would use any argument to cut taxes. Eventually, they inspired new good research, and helped in swinging the pendulum of policy debates to include some valid supply considerations.
4/13

Yet, supply-side economic ideas also contributed to a massive rise in US public debt in the last 40 years. Right-wing governments became as prone to have large public deficits as left-wing governments, in the pursuit of cuts in taxes.
5/13
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