BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1) Get used to the following term: “budget reconciliation.”

This is the special parliamentary process President Biden and Congressional Democrats plan to use to advance the next coronavirus relief package. It will likely take a few weeks just to move such a COVID-19 measure.

 2) But an understanding of the process may shed light on the policy – and the political realities of Capitol Hill.

President Biden and Democrats in Congress have long memories about how Republicans responded to big legislative initiatives in 2009.
3) The country reeled after the financial crisis. But many Republicans made a pact to reject a stimulus package to help boost the economy. Later that year and in early 2010, Republicans also voted nearly in lockstep against Obamacare.
4) Right or wrong, Democrats felt they waited for Republicans to help out. But were met with blockades and political opposition at every turn. Democrats are wary that they can count on GOP support this year. They still feel the sting of 12 years ago.
5) And that’s why Democrats may go it mostly alone on their next COVID-19 relief measure.

That’s where budget reconciliation kicks in.

Republicans are already complaining that Democrats aren’t working with them on the next COVID bill.
6) The still unwritten $1.9 trillion pkg may be too expensive for many GOPers. Not targeted enough. It would heap too much money on the deficit. There’s been very little chatter about the Republicans’ key demand last year to extend a legal liability shield related to the pandemic
7) Advancing any coronavirus bill boils down to crafting a package which coaxes just the right number of votes to pass in the House and Senate. Democrats can only lose four votes in the House and still approve a bill.
8) The breakdown right now in the House is 221 Democrats to 211 Republicans. That number could dwindle if a COVID bill isn’t ready until early March – the expected target date.
9) By that stage, House Democrats may already be down a couple of votes if the Senate confirms Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) as Housing Secretary and Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) as Interior Secretary.
10) The math in the Senate is well-known. It’s split 50/50. Vice President Harris can break a tie there. But, it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster on legislation. And Democrats - so far - have resisted calls from the left to extinguish the filibuster.
11) So how can Democrats possibly woo ten Republicans to join them to break a filibuster on the next coronavirus measure?

The easy response is draft a bipartisan bill which has universal buy-in from both sides.
12) But consider what the sides went through for months to forge a bipartisan accord last year for COVID. It’s unclear the sides can, or would, craft such a measure. And Democrats are touting speed for this bill.
13) They remember getting bogged down in negotiations for weeks with former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) in an effort to advance Obamacare more than a decade ago.
14) So, if Democrats lack the votes for the coronavirus bill, they may only have one option. The way to slide such a bill through the Senate is use once-a-fiscal-year, parliamentary gambit: budget reconciliation.
15) Budget reconciliation is a special parliamentary vehicle lawmakers can use to skirt Senate filibusters. So no 60 vote requirement there. All you need is to find a simple majority to pass whatever bill you insert into a budget reconciliation package.
16) This is the only path forward for Democrats if they’re unwilling to terminate the filibuster.

Let’s consider the quintessence of the Senate: Unlimited debate and an unlimited amendment process. But budget reconciliation eliminates that option.
17) Budget reconciliation removes those options from the table.

In 1974, Congress approved the Budget Act which established the contemporary budget process.
18) Both the House and Senate are supposed to create a non-binding budget blueprint establishing parameters for federal spending for the coming fiscal year in accordance with that law.
19) Budget reconciliation is one provision in the Budget Act. The authors of the Budget Act crafted reconciliation to make it easier to trim federal spending.

Average, everyday Americans are actually familiar with budget reconciliation even if they don’t realize it.
20) In 1985, Congress approved the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Among other things, the law allowed some employees to carry their health care insurance with them if they left a job.
21) Many people simply refer to this option as “COBRA.” That’s the acronym for the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985.

Under budget reconciliation, Senate debate is capped at 20 hours and amendments are limited. The House already limits debate and amendments
22) But both processes can be a free-for-all in the Senate. However, that all disappears during budget reconciliation. Thus, it’s easier to move legislation under the budget reconciliation process.
23) However, senators may adopt amendments which run afoul of the tight limitation of the Budget Act – if they vote to waive the Budget Act.
24) Adoption of most amendments only requires a simple majority but 60 votes are needed to bypass special Budget Act provisions under the budget reconciliation process.
25) This is where you may start to hear discussion of the “Byrd Rule,” named after late Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd (D-WV). Amendments and bill text considered under budget reconciliation must be fiscal in nature.
26) They also must deal with tax and budgetary policy. Thus, a coronavirus relief measure probably qualifies. It must also not add to the deficit over an extended period of time. Otherwise, the “Byrd Rule” applies and gets dropped.
27) These are sometimes referred to as “Byrd droppings,” in Senate parlance.

This is why Democrats probably can’t do other “policy” bill under budget reconciliation. Immigration policy, statehood for the District of Columbia and expanding the size of the Supreme Court are out
28) Those aren’t fiscal issues. But COVID aid is.

And both sides have used budget reconciliation to try to achieve their own policy goals – especially when they know they can’t overcome a Senate filibuster.
29) Such was the case in 2010 when Democrats lacked a filibuster-proof supermajority to approve the final version of Obamacare. Democrats used reconciliation because health policy qualifies for the process.
30) Congressional Republicans faced the same parliamentary hurdle when they tried to repeal Obamacare in 2015 – and repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017. GOPers couldn’t clear the filibuster hurdle. So they also used budget reconciliation.
31) Both sides have howled when the other side has used reconciliation to advance their policy goals. The reason? It undercuts the ability of the minority to filibuster and undercut bills. That is the Senate’s basic glory.
32) And that’s why reconciliation is so controversial – especially to those who oppose the policy the other side is trying to advance via reconciliation.

Expect the House and Senate to move their initial budget measures this week. This isn’t the coronavirus bill itself.
33) It’s just a shell. The House and Senate will craft the actual budget reconciliation plans later and insert the policy specifics inside. But you have to at least start with budget resolutions this week.
34) Democrats may yet be able to convince a few Senate Republicans to vote for their COVID aid measure. But those numbers are probably limited. It’s still a stretch to get to 60 even if they pluck off a GOPer or two.
35) And that’s why it’s likely Democrats will likely use the budget reconciliation process to sidestep a filibuster and pass the next coronavirus bill.

More from Chad Pergram

Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Urgent: the $2,000 stimulus check bill & veto override effort on the defense bill

The House of Representatives meets today in a rare session between Christmas and New Year’s. Two things on the docket today.

2) A bill to authorize $2,000 direct payment checks, in accordance with the President’s push last week and an override attempt of the annual defense bill.

We don’t expect any action in the House until the late afternoon and no votes before 5 pm et.

3) First up, the House debates the bill to provide $2,000 direct payment checks. The House will treat this bill as a “suspension” measure. That means they can rush it to the floor. But the trade off is a 2/3 vote for passage.

4) Note that many Republicans opposed such a plan for direct payments. Fox is told by a member of the GOP leadership that the House will likely get the 2/3 vote necessary for passage.

5) Watch to see how many Republicans, who were against additional direct payments, will now support the President on this issue.

Also in the queue is a vote to override the President’s veto of the annual defense bill. That will entail a debate and then a vote.
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
A) This is “Capitol Crunch.” Congress often faces an avalanche of activity in December as lawmakers try to wrap up for the year. And the challenges this year are particularly acute.

B) Talks go on behind the scenes about a potential coronavirus relief package. We truly don’t know the size of the final product. But we keep hearing that the bipartisan “baseline” will be a little more than $900 billion.

C) But there are still major sticking points over liability protections and money for state and local governments.

D) It appears that the only way to advance any sort of coronavirus bill will be to latch it to the big, $1.4 trillion, omnibus spending bill which leaders and appropriators have been working on for weeks. But that’s far from settled, too.

E) Issues still remain regarding migrant detention policy and money for the wall.

Frankly, it’s going to take until at least early next week to get a coronavirus bill which can jell – let alone, the bill to avoid a government shutdown at 11:59:59 pm et on December 11.
POLITICS
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Senate Trial today
 
What is expected to be the final day of President Trump’s second impeachment trial will begin at 10 am et today. We anticipate a final vote on the guilt or innocence of the former President as early as midday.
TRUMP
Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Washington is staring at the potential of a government shutdown Monday night. This is grim. Congress has approved four temporary spending bills since the end of the government’s fiscal year in September to prevent a shutdown.

2) The most recent stopgap measure was a seven day plan this week. Mbrs knew that the COVID/coronavirus bill was so large, it would take several days to send to the White House. Yes, that bill funds the government until next fall. But it isn’t law until the President signs it.

3) So, the most recent Band-Aid measure was the equivalent of fiscal grout. The House will approve another emergency measure on Monday. But there's doubt the Senate will do anything before then. And, it’s unclear if President Trump would sign anything. That means a shutdown.

4) A shutdown is always dangerous. It could be more dangerous during a pandemic. And it’s unclear if a shutdown could have devastating impacts on distributing the vaccine.

5) It takes a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate to override a presidential veto. With 359 House yeas and 92 Senate yeas on the COVID/omnibus bill, both bodies have way more than a supermajority to override a presidential veto.
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Several big, controversial things coming together in the House of Representatives this week.

The House is expected to vote mid-week to fine members who decline to pass through metal detectors en route to the House floor.

2) The House erected the mags after the 1/6 riot. Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) was later refused entry to the House chamber by US Capitol Police after he attempted to bring a gun onto the floor, setting off the mags.

3) Republicans argue that the mags are unconstitutional and interfere with their right to go to the floor, via the “Speech or Debate” clause of the Constitution. It prohibits lawmakers from being arrested or detained when conducting official business.

4) But the Constitution also allows both the House and Senate to craft their own rules.

Also, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is to meet “this week” with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).

5) Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-CA) may try to advance his measure to expel Greene from the House. Expulsion requires a two-thirds vote. Only five House members have ever been expelled. The last was the late Rep. Jim Traficant (D-OH) in 2002.
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Altogether, after health insurance premiums but before taxes, Valerie and her husband make about $45,000 a year.

The story of her working life is also the story of Bryan. The town is broken in some of the same ways that much of the rest of the country is broken. Understanding what broke Bryan is crucial to understanding how it might be fixed.


For decades, America’s political and business leaders acted as if places like Bryan didn’t matter.
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UK’s £35bn fashion industry warns of “decimation” from #brexit - big names sign open letter to @BorisJohnson urging action. Many of 50,000 SMEs on the rack due to VAT, customs and work permit issues. Stay with me/1


You can read the full text of the letter here, co-ordinated by Fashion Round Table @FashionRoundTab, but tl;dr it says that #Brexit has left a "gaping hole" in an industry that relies of free movement of professionals. It's a familiar cry /2



@FashionRoundTab The industry, already whacked by #COVID19, is now discovering that cross-border sales are a horror (VAT, Customs, long delays) and models, stylists, photographers that used to blat around Europe can't any more. They need permits, for themselves, for their gear /3

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** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

1/13

The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
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In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
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But they had popular hero figures (Laffer, Moore), and an eager political audience that would use any argument to cut taxes. Eventually, they inspired new good research, and helped in swinging the pendulum of policy debates to include some valid supply considerations.
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Yet, supply-side economic ideas also contributed to a massive rise in US public debt in the last 40 years. Right-wing governments became as prone to have large public deficits as left-wing governments, in the pursuit of cuts in taxes.
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True that all the people cherishing the support of IMF or WTO for farm reforms need to cool it down a bit, because that is a model we do not want to emulate to the t in India here.

But here are some issues that deserve to be better discussed by all:


1. People who say we are emulating the Western model of agriculture are way off with this assumption. The process of primitive accumulation, the alienation of their people from their land and the way these 'first-world' countries have pushed their people into Industrial sector +

+ was a merciless phase.
But the same assumption won't work for India, because we have always had a large workforce in agriculture, agri subsidies have always run high, protection has been the hallmark of agriculture and rural representation in the parliament has always been+

+ high. Still, it is our utter failure from the beginning that we have not been able to incentivize the movement of our people to other lucrative sectors.

2. This brings us to the another point of providing MSP on all the commodities and the demand side of the issue that we+

+ conveniently ignore. Here's the thing, Food prices in India have about 65-70% weight in calculating the Consumer Price Index and 25-30% of wholesale price index. These indices affect the general price level in the economy i.e. the inflation. If MSP is offered on all the+
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"I need to get better at marketing."

But, it's more likely that you have a product problem:

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Keep dwelling on this:
Further Examination of the Motif near PRRA Reveals Close Structural Similarity to the SEB Superantigen as well as Sequence Similarities to Neurotoxins and a Viral SAg.

The insertion PRRA together with 7 sequentially preceding residues & succeeding R685 (conserved in β-CoVs) form a motif, Y674QTQTNSPRRAR685, homologous to those of neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) and Bungarus genera, as well as neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains

(20) (Fig. 2D). We further noticed that the same segment bears close similarity to the HIV-1 glycoprotein gp120 SAg motif F164 to V174.
https://t.co/EwwJOSa8RK


In (B), the segment S680PPRAR685 including the PRRA insert and highly conserved cleavage site *R685* is shown in van der Waals representation (black labels) and nearby CDR residues of the TCRVβ domain are labeled in blue/white
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa


Sequence Identity %
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Y674 - QTQTNSPRRA - R685
Similar to neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) & Bungarus genera & neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
T678 - NSPRRA- R685
Superantigenic core, consistently aligned against bacterial or viral SAgs
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