1) Get used to the following term: “budget reconciliation.”

This is the special parliamentary process President Biden and Congressional Democrats plan to use to advance the next coronavirus relief package. It will likely take a few weeks just to move such a COVID-19 measure.

2) But an understanding of the process may shed light on the policy – and the political realities of Capitol Hill.

President Biden and Democrats in Congress have long memories about how Republicans responded to big legislative initiatives in 2009.
3) The country reeled after the financial crisis. But many Republicans made a pact to reject a stimulus package to help boost the economy. Later that year and in early 2010, Republicans also voted nearly in lockstep against Obamacare.
4) Right or wrong, Democrats felt they waited for Republicans to help out. But were met with blockades and political opposition at every turn. Democrats are wary that they can count on GOP support this year. They still feel the sting of 12 years ago.
5) And that’s why Democrats may go it mostly alone on their next COVID-19 relief measure.

That’s where budget reconciliation kicks in.

Republicans are already complaining that Democrats aren’t working with them on the next COVID bill.
6) The still unwritten $1.9 trillion pkg may be too expensive for many GOPers. Not targeted enough. It would heap too much money on the deficit. There’s been very little chatter about the Republicans’ key demand last year to extend a legal liability shield related to the pandemic
7) Advancing any coronavirus bill boils down to crafting a package which coaxes just the right number of votes to pass in the House and Senate. Democrats can only lose four votes in the House and still approve a bill.
8) The breakdown right now in the House is 221 Democrats to 211 Republicans. That number could dwindle if a COVID bill isn’t ready until early March – the expected target date.
9) By that stage, House Democrats may already be down a couple of votes if the Senate confirms Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) as Housing Secretary and Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) as Interior Secretary.
10) The math in the Senate is well-known. It’s split 50/50. Vice President Harris can break a tie there. But, it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster on legislation. And Democrats - so far - have resisted calls from the left to extinguish the filibuster.
11) So how can Democrats possibly woo ten Republicans to join them to break a filibuster on the next coronavirus measure?

The easy response is draft a bipartisan bill which has universal buy-in from both sides.
12) But consider what the sides went through for months to forge a bipartisan accord last year for COVID. It’s unclear the sides can, or would, craft such a measure. And Democrats are touting speed for this bill.
13) They remember getting bogged down in negotiations for weeks with former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) in an effort to advance Obamacare more than a decade ago.
14) So, if Democrats lack the votes for the coronavirus bill, they may only have one option. The way to slide such a bill through the Senate is use once-a-fiscal-year, parliamentary gambit: budget reconciliation.
15) Budget reconciliation is a special parliamentary vehicle lawmakers can use to skirt Senate filibusters. So no 60 vote requirement there. All you need is to find a simple majority to pass whatever bill you insert into a budget reconciliation package.
16) This is the only path forward for Democrats if they’re unwilling to terminate the filibuster.

Let’s consider the quintessence of the Senate: Unlimited debate and an unlimited amendment process. But budget reconciliation eliminates that option.
17) Budget reconciliation removes those options from the table.

In 1974, Congress approved the Budget Act which established the contemporary budget process.
18) Both the House and Senate are supposed to create a non-binding budget blueprint establishing parameters for federal spending for the coming fiscal year in accordance with that law.
19) Budget reconciliation is one provision in the Budget Act. The authors of the Budget Act crafted reconciliation to make it easier to trim federal spending.

Average, everyday Americans are actually familiar with budget reconciliation even if they don’t realize it.
20) In 1985, Congress approved the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Among other things, the law allowed some employees to carry their health care insurance with them if they left a job.
21) Many people simply refer to this option as “COBRA.” That’s the acronym for the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985.

Under budget reconciliation, Senate debate is capped at 20 hours and amendments are limited. The House already limits debate and amendments
22) But both processes can be a free-for-all in the Senate. However, that all disappears during budget reconciliation. Thus, it’s easier to move legislation under the budget reconciliation process.
23) However, senators may adopt amendments which run afoul of the tight limitation of the Budget Act – if they vote to waive the Budget Act.
24) Adoption of most amendments only requires a simple majority but 60 votes are needed to bypass special Budget Act provisions under the budget reconciliation process.
25) This is where you may start to hear discussion of the “Byrd Rule,” named after late Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd (D-WV). Amendments and bill text considered under budget reconciliation must be fiscal in nature.
26) They also must deal with tax and budgetary policy. Thus, a coronavirus relief measure probably qualifies. It must also not add to the deficit over an extended period of time. Otherwise, the “Byrd Rule” applies and gets dropped.
27) These are sometimes referred to as “Byrd droppings,” in Senate parlance.

This is why Democrats probably can’t do other “policy” bill under budget reconciliation. Immigration policy, statehood for the District of Columbia and expanding the size of the Supreme Court are out
28) Those aren’t fiscal issues. But COVID aid is.

And both sides have used budget reconciliation to try to achieve their own policy goals – especially when they know they can’t overcome a Senate filibuster.
29) Such was the case in 2010 when Democrats lacked a filibuster-proof supermajority to approve the final version of Obamacare. Democrats used reconciliation because health policy qualifies for the process.
30) Congressional Republicans faced the same parliamentary hurdle when they tried to repeal Obamacare in 2015 – and repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017. GOPers couldn’t clear the filibuster hurdle. So they also used budget reconciliation.
31) Both sides have howled when the other side has used reconciliation to advance their policy goals. The reason? It undercuts the ability of the minority to filibuster and undercut bills. That is the Senate’s basic glory.
32) And that’s why reconciliation is so controversial – especially to those who oppose the policy the other side is trying to advance via reconciliation.

Expect the House and Senate to move their initial budget measures this week. This isn’t the coronavirus bill itself.
33) It’s just a shell. The House and Senate will craft the actual budget reconciliation plans later and insert the policy specifics inside. But you have to at least start with budget resolutions this week.
34) Democrats may yet be able to convince a few Senate Republicans to vote for their COVID aid measure. But those numbers are probably limited. It’s still a stretch to get to 60 even if they pluck off a GOPer or two.
35) And that’s why it’s likely Democrats will likely use the budget reconciliation process to sidestep a filibuster and pass the next coronavirus bill.

More from Chad Pergram

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Interesting thread, but I don't think ecosocialists or degrowthers are arguing that if German socialists had come to power the world would be green by now. Socialism is not automatically green. Eco-socialism is what it says - a green version of socialism - to be tested /1


The historical counterfactual also in not totally convincing. So let's assume Germany and Europe went socialist. The world economy would have evolved exactly the same way it did? 🤔 I doubt it, this is too deterministic. Examples: /2

We do not know if the transition from coal to oil would have taken place when it took place, the way it did. From Timothy Mitchell we know that oil was a fix for capitalism to bypass the labour strikes of coal workers. One would think that socialists would treat workers better /3

We also do not know if socialist governments would strong arm the Middle East the way capitalists did, starting wars to secure cheap oil, and setting up puppet governments. One would want to think that Rosa Luxembourg would not go down that path..../4

We also do not know if they would have continued colonial unequal exchange, extracting raw materials as cheap as possible from the rest of the world. Without cheap oil and cheap materials, it is anyone's guess if GDP and CO2 would be where it is now. /5

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#ஆதித்தியஹ்ருதயம் ஸ்தோத்திரம்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை


தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு

நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்

இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்


குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது
https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்