Someone tosses a coin ten times; it comes up heads every time. What's the probability it comes up heads on the next toss? (Pretty darn high—part of @nntaleb's work is unprogramming you from your high-school rules of thumb.) Now consider the (related) Gambler's fallacy...

In this case, it's a theory about compensation: the worse one's luck is, the more likely it is to see a reversal. On the surface, it's irrational. The more bad luck you have, the more you accumulate evidence that the system is rigged.

But there's also an anthropic component. If the luck is bad enough, it starts to become inconsistent with your survival. You've accumulated evidence for correlations in the environment, but these correlations (may be) inconsistent with (people like you) being in this environment.

An example. You're in a city where everyone takes public transport. You encounter a string of bad delays. It's reasonable to conclude they'll end—otherwise people wouldn't take public transport. It's unlikely that you happened to show up right when the network collapses.

Of course, that's a bad heuristic in a casino, which relies on a constant influx of losers. But in other environments, particularly with persistent populations and no evidence for sudden changes in the underlying laws, it makes sense.

Master class on HEAD & SHOULDERS pattern for trading Bitcoin.

A thread.

Comprehensive guide to head and shoulders pattern. Made exhaustive enough for Trading purposes.

t’s a frequently occurring, misunderstood and arguably the most useful pattern.

RT would be appreciated.

H&S is probably the first pattern a trader hears of. Here is what we will cover.

Content
1. Nature
2. Identification
3. Occurrence
4. Historical performance
5. Finding entries
6. High probability trades
7. stop losses
8. Miscellaneous
9. Conclusion

Nature

The head and shoulders top is a reversal, bearish pattern, signifying a prospective drop in future prices.

The formation of pattern with a breakdown from its neckline(base) starts a probable bearish move.

Identification.
A prospective H&S pattern should have 3 distinct peaks. The middle peak is the head. This is the highest point of this pattern, sitting in between 2 shorter peaks, i.e. the shoulders. There must be an overlap in prices of these 3 distinct peaks.

The line where these prices overlap is called the neckline. A head and shoulders pattern is easily visible. So, don’t force yourself into finding it. The more times the prices overlap, the stronger is the pattern.

As a “lifelong” technician, I am finding that bitcoin lends itself well to technical analysis. Here is my take on the recent price action. (THREAD)

Elliott Wave Theory: Looking at the chart pattern since the recent high of 64,870, I can't help but notice that a textbook 5-wave decline may be unfolding. According to EWT, primary trends move in 5 waves and corrections are 3 waves. /2

The typical progression is that wave 1 is generally dismissed as noise, then wave 2 is a sharp and deep retracement of wave 1 (at least 62% but sometimes 75% or more), which creates the false comfort that it was indeed just a minor correction. /3

Then wave 3 comes & that's the big one. It's called the recognition wave & is typically the longest & most impulsive wave (usually 1.618x wave 1). /4

After the wave 3 low, the 4th wave is often a triangle or "zigzag" (a triangle pattern that retraces much less of wave 3 than wave 2 did of wave 1). A rule of thumb is 38%. Finally we get wave 5, which is often equal to wave 1, but often also less (0.618x). /5

stacks are eating the world

business used to be easiest to comprehend via a) market-based logic of horizontal vs. vertical STRUCTURE, b) professionalization/specialization based FUNCTION c) core competencies based BEHAVIORS

this has pretty much collapsed in the last decade

Structure = sclerosis
Functional specialization = bureaucracy
competencies = inertial habits

"Stack" thinking instead lets technology structure (rather than market structure) drive business org logic

Companies seem to do well when they identify an entire stack of technologies they are good at (not just point bits) and organize to conform to its logic. There is a "full-stack" dimension of technical specialization that is the spine of the org

It feels buzzwordy, but it really is getting to be that way. AI stack, decarbonization stack, mobility stack, electrification stack... some end-to-end pathway of turning physics into economics via layers of tech artistically baked together like a cake

Today we've reached another milestone:
$2,000,000 in customer deposits made to date!

It took us 1 year to reach $1 million but only 40 days to reach $2 million!

Thank you to all our customers.
Stay tuned for more awesome updates from POKKET!

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Earning #HODL

Will start this thread with a disclaimer. I have never invested a rupee in cryptos 😀

But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze

The amount of chatter I am seeing in friends, family and social media about cryptos has gone through the roof. For everyone, it's a dream to make 100x or even 1000x easily. Basically, become stinking rich easily
( it never happens )

In any financial bubble, the top is made in extreme speed and violence. The distribution happens on the way down. Unless one saw the rates of 65k on bitcoin, one wouldn't buy at 30-35k or 20k. That 65k is an anchor point which leads to greed

During the tulipmania, a single piece of tulip reached a price of $750,000 in today's money. When we see that history, we think "what idiots". But consider this, as of now meme coins generated by someone in their garage are being traded at absurd prices

Then there is this joke called NFT. A piece of "digital art" basically made by someone on their computer ( who is not even a known artist) are being sold for millions of dollars

How to Trade without Fear, Stress or Anxiety. 💯

Trading should bring wealth, happiness and peace.
Not stress and sleepless nights.

Here is how to trade without dying faster.

Please share to de-stress the world.

A Thread.

The reasons for feeling anxious and Stressed.

1. Too high Position Size.
2. No Exit Plan.
3. Almost no Entry strategy.

We will learn about them below and try to find a solution.

1. POSITION SIZE.
Position size should be equal to what you're willing to lose and not cry over.

Eg. If your position size is 10K, you should be able to lose 10K without it making you depressed.

It doesn't mean you throw away 10K as a random experiment.

If you're stressed? Reduce your Position size, Now!

But If I trade with such a small position size, it won't be much Profitable?

-Profits and wealth are built slowly, trade with small amounts, built your system, profits will accumulate.

Small Position size. Low Stress. Better life.

Remember, you don't need a lot to become big.

1% gain per day compounds to 3700% Return per year.

- If Stressed or anxious, reduce your position size.

Switch to smaller position which doesn't make you feel sleepless.

The Sovereign Individual (1999) is a guide for navigating the current transition from Industrial to Information Age.

Remarkably, it predicted the rise of 'digital gold'.

“If our deductions are correct, you stand at the threshold of the most sweeping revolution in history.”

A🧵

1/ "Widespread adoption of public-key/private-key encryption technologies will soon allow many economic activities to be completed anywhere you please."

"Many transactions in the Information Age will not need to be domiciled in any territorial sovereignty at all."

2/ From Monopoly to Competition

"This new economic dynamic directly contradicts the desire of government left over from the industrial era to impose monopoly pricing for its protection services."

3/ The Death of Seignorage

"In the past, megapolitical transitions have been associated with changes in the character of money."

"As cybercommerce begins, it will lead inevitably to cybermoney."

"..this new cybermoney will be denationalized."

4/ "Any individual or firm with access to cyberspace will be able to easily shift out of any currency that appears in danger of depreciation."

What happens to your cryptocurrency when you die??

A thread...

Did you know it’s illegal to log into a dead person’s crypto account?

So if you're a crypto investor and you died today, who reaps your fortune?

No one, technically, unless you name a beneficiary in your will. And it's a big deal as ~3.7M bitcoins, $140B is unrecoverable (excluding the 10k+ other cryptocurrencies) since the investor either lost their password or died intestate.

And you can’t just “reset” the password. This is because, when the cryptocurrency network confirms passwords to allow transactions, it does not see or know the password itself!

This complex algorithm keeps the system decentralized. So a lost password is lost money.

#analysis THREAD

Here I'll show that investors already consider BTC a safe haven under on-chain capital flows.

Common wisdom that BTC is "risk-on" is a fallacy; solely a consequence of trader liquidations on derivative exchanges.

During the 2 months of the COVID "correction" BTC price went from $9k to $9k with very quick and deep price rejection below $7k. Even traders rejected sub $7k valuations.

As fears of COVID swept the economy, investors moved into Bitcoin. You can see this in the NVT Price Chart which values BTC according to on-chain investment velocity.

This coincided exactly with coins being scooped off exchanges and locked into long term HODL wallets. The largest by far in BTC's history. It still continues.

While traders were selling Bitcoins, investors were accumulating. It's investors that determine the long term price.

The fundamentals of BTC became visibly bullish over the COVID correction, this was hidden by traders freaking out and being liquidated. Bitcoin is only now reflecting its organic valuation.

1 - Over the years I've learnt a lot of new things that I wish I knew when I first started so I want to make this thread for all the new traders out there who wants to turn their trading into a profitable career 🔥

Will be adding to this thread over time.

17 - Because trading is a game of numbers and probabilities, whenever you see a setup that fits your trading rules and aligns with your edge, you NEED to take the opportunity!

Don't pick and choose, just religiously follow your plan and rules!

1/20 Stablecoin Tweetstorm- I have a fairly unique perspective on stablecoins... I was an "unofficial advisor" to the launch of USDT (Tether) Some of my best friends were CEO/CTO/Founders, etc. I didn't invest at the time (which was a lucky move) as the company sold

2/20 for a loss to Bitfinex within two years of creation. It had very little usage, banking issues, and really no clear path to growth (that is until one of the largest exchanges on earth began using it) So with this short background let me share a bit of my thoughts on

3/20 this category and why I think it is so important... (Full Disclosure: after all these years I finally found a stablecoin project that I thought was worth investing in and i will be shilling it later in this thread:-)

4/20 The community knows all about how important stablecoins are to the overall health and usage of the entire crypto marketplace. With an overall market cap of in excess of $1 Trillion the crypto market is large and growing... No category of crypto is growing faster than

5/20 Stablecoins: With a total category value of just over $33B and over $10B per day in trade volume it is no longer just a "niche" Stablecoins are a major category and I predict this category will increase in value faster then the overall crypto market. (My bet is $100B

11 signs $ETH is going to blow past its all-time high 👇🏼

#1: Ethereum continues to dwarf the entire crypto space in terms of fees paid ($7.25m daily avg) -- proving it's the most useful network in the world.

#2: The number of large $ETH transactions (>$100k) is 7x smaller than during its 2018 ATHs -- a sign that whales and institutions still haven't entered the game.

#3: Hash Rate is at an all-time high (313.12 TH/s) -- a sign that miners have never been more confident.

#4: Ethereum has nearly 550k daily active addresses (90-day MA) -- a figure that has doubled YTD and now sits comfortably at ATHs too.