Will start this thread with a disclaimer. I have never invested a rupee in cryptos 😀

But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze

The amount of chatter I am seeing in friends, family and social media about cryptos has gone through the roof. For everyone, it's a dream to make 100x or even 1000x easily. Basically, become stinking rich easily
( it never happens )
In any financial bubble, the top is made in extreme speed and violence. The distribution happens on the way down. Unless one saw the rates of 65k on bitcoin, one wouldn't buy at 30-35k or 20k. That 65k is an anchor point which leads to greed
During the tulipmania, a single piece of tulip reached a price of $750,000 in today's money. When we see that history, we think "what idiots". But consider this, as of now meme coins generated by someone in their garage are being traded at absurd prices
Then there is this joke called NFT. A piece of "digital art" basically made by someone on their computer ( who is not even a known artist) are being sold for millions of dollars
Whatever logic crypto fanatics throw at me to justify these prices or that they will go higher fails to convince me that the future generation will not call us "what idiots". We are in a manic bubble like tulipmania or even bigger
----end ---
I leave you with this chart of HFCL, the most darling stock of the 2000 bull run. I knew quite a few "smart " traders who got in at 1400-1600 range and could never sell
What I think will happen. During distribution also, there is huge volatility with price going up and down to "lure". Remember, at any bubble the prices are #always justified by logic ( which are new and against convention). Like Harshad Mehta's "replacement cost theory"

More from Subhadip Nandy

This friend had trouble making money in options though he was directionally right. Let us see how a basic understanding of greeks would have helped him, This thread will be about two attributes of option pricing, extrinsic value and theta


An option has two parts, intrinsic and extrinsic value. Think of a pack of Lay's potato chips. When you buy and open the pack, what you find is some chips and a lot of air. Intrinsic value is the chips, extrinsic value is air


https://t.co/8ZPv4ZnCiL


https://t.co/icWmqSLENW


https://t.co/vHA6azEmbQ
The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view


Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this

Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance

You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective

As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend

More from Crypto

You May Also Like

The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.


In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
Ivor Cummins has been wrong (or lying) almost entirely throughout this pandemic and got paid handsomly for it.

He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...


... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:


Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.

Tweet: https://t.co/36FnYnsRT9


Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x


Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq