BC CLIMATE CHANGE
Saved by @Alex1Powell

The UK government's climate advisory body is launching its next carbon budget: basically, outlining what the UK can emit between 2033 and 2037. It's a big deal - launch video starting right now.
Watch along:

 Will tweet along snippets. Pretty relevant to...............everything, really. #UKCarbonBudget

"Instead of being just a budget, it's a pathway we have to tread to reach net zero in 2050" @lorddeben
Just like quite a few other modelling exercises, CCC use a spectrum between behaviour change and between technological change. #UKCarbonBudget.

Both = best (just like @AEMO_Media's Step Change scenario in their ISP)
'Balanced' is what they use for their recs. "We're doing 60% of the emissions reductions in the first 15 years, and then 40% in the next".

The slinky kitty curve....good to see. No evidence of delaying action to Dec 29 2049, here. #UKCarbonBudget
"By front loading, we're minimising the UK's contribution to cumulative emissions" - really important point. A slow path to net zero - more climate harm than a fast one. #UKCarbonBudget
"This is our rainbow of abatement" - nice @IEA-style split-out of how to cut emissions to near-zero by 2050. Reducing demand for CO2 intensive stuff (flying, meat) is quite a big purple chunk there. #UKCarbonBudget
This is a really interesting graphic:

Orange = purely behavioural change
Purple = purely tech
Red (pink??) = a mix of tech and behaviour

"There is nothing to be afraid of at all.......they won't be major change to our lifestyles", on the red wedge #UKCarbonBudget
UK will need a huge amount of (mostly private) investment in new zero carbon assets, but the savings from not buying fossil fuels eventually cancel that out.

"Any notion that we can't afford to tackle climate change is clearly nonsense" #ukcarbonbudget
"The challenge is not to rely on a pandemic to cut emissions. The key is to drive changes that last"

CC @AngusTaylorMP #ukcarbonbudget
"We're hitting a million heat pump installations by 2030", in addition to nearly 100% of new car sales being electric (small amount of hybrids) #ukcarbonbudget, w/ 30TWh of H2 produced.

Zero carbon elec by 2035 (just like the US). No new sales of gas boilers by 2033
"The crucial point here is that this is all genuinely feasible......but it is also genuinely challenging" #UKcarbonbduget @ChiefExecCCC
"Gas is not acting as a bridge fuel. It's a fossil fuel and we need to move away from it" #UKcarbondget
Nice comparison of emissions vs temps. The decisions made to cause the problem have mattered - the decisions made to stop it matter too.

#ukcarbonbudget
A familiar accent from @pilitaclark during the Q&A session.... #ukcarbonbudget https://t.co/faxRj5KF8x
"If you take the time to guide people through this, they're really supportive of action" on how to integrate behaviour change into net zero. Can't help but think of toxic UK media outlets and how easily they could ruin all that. #UKCarbonBudget
Aus media and conservatives used a "the government is coming to take your car" narrative in 2019 on efficiency standards and it definitely helped them win an election #UKCarbonBudget
A really interesting point from @ChiefExecCCC - the hard, empirical pathway (spreadsheets) and the qualitative, consultation-led pathway (climate assemblies, etc) both end up in really similar places. #UKCarbonBudget
Lord Deben literally having an air-sourced heat pump installed during the call #UKCarbonBudget
He's got biomass backup #UKCarbonBudget
On heat pumps and the suggestion to phase out gas boilers in thirteen years - these are two headline describing precisely the same piece of news:

#UKCarbonBudget
"While its great to hear commitments to net zero.....the path by which we get there is crucial. It's the accumulated CO2 emissions in the atmosphere that are changing the climate.......they must have a tough intermediate target. The 2030 NDCs are crucial"

#UKCarbonBudget
By 2030, the UK won't be building any more new unabated gas plants (that should surely be.....now, right?), under the CCC's balanced pathway scenario #UKCarbonBudget
UK shifting energy from oil+gas into electricity+hydrogen ends up with a total *lower* amount of energy consumption, because electricity is just so much more efficient.

Also see: @GriffithSaul's @rewiringamerica work!

Or: https://t.co/BYvbPTPX6e #UKCarbonBudget

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On September 28, 2016, an unprecedented tropical storm progressed rapidly across South Australia. Truly - this thing was unusual. The sky folded in on itself. It tore towns to bits.


Australia's @climatecouncil pointed out that the storm was so unusual at least partly due to the influence of climate change, and that this is due to get worse.

https://t.co/76ekkfJpR8


I'm going to use brief snippets from my book to fill this out! The storm's primary impact on the grid was the destruction of several major transmission lines. When I say destruction - I mean they snapped like twigs.


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Climate Change Committee
Climate Change Committ...
@theCCCuk
The Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037) charts the decisive move to zero carbon for the UK. The CCC shows that polluting emissions must fall by almost 80% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels – a big step-up in ambition. (1/12) #UKCarbonBudget 🧵


Our recommended Sixth Carbon Budget would achieve well over half of the required emissions reduction to 2050 in the next 15 years, but decisive action must start today. (2/12) #UKCarbonBudget


The recommended Sixth Carbon Budget and UK NDC also reflect the goals and requirements of the Paris Agreement, recognising the UK’s responsibility as a richer developed nation and its respective capabilities. (3/12) #UKCarbonBudget


When we recommended the UK’s #NetZero target for 2050, we demonstrated that any negative economic impact was likely to be small and the overall impact could turn out to be positive. Our analysis for this report reinforces that finding. (4/12) #UKCarbonBudget


Our estimate of the annualised resource cost (which measures the net additional cost each year to deliver the same services with lower emissions) has fallen to less than 1% of GDP through to 2050. (5/12) #UKCarbonBudget
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A brilliant talk that punctures current discourse on climate ambition in Scotland, setting out what's really needed, by @KevinClimate for @ScotClimateCA

📽️ https://t.co/i02FtSkJT8 📽️

Well worth watching. Otherwise, here's a summary thread 👇
1/10

Want scientific assessment of what Scotland should do to achieve Paris Agreement temperature targets? Look to carbon budgets. See that a failure to rapidly reduce emissions will eat up the carbon budget in just a few years, leaving impossible burdens for future generations. 2/10


Are UK emissions down 45% in 30 years? Not when including emissions from aviation & shipping, and imports & exports – then they are only down 10%. Over three decades, we have had reductions of less than 0.5% per year. 3/10


Scotland’s average per person consumption emissions are still double the global average. Scotland’s consumption emissions have not meaningfully reduced in the last 20 years… 4/10


Principles of global equity and justice mean that Scotland’s fair slice of the global carbon budget is just a few hundred million tonnes of CO2, which is less than ten years of Scotland’s emissions at current levels. 5/10
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