BC CLIMATE CHANGE
Saved by @Alex1Powell

The UK government's climate advisory body is launching its next carbon budget: basically, outlining what the UK can emit between 2033 and 2037. It's a big deal - launch video starting right now.
Watch along:

 Will tweet along snippets. Pretty relevant to...............everything, really. #UKCarbonBudget

"Instead of being just a budget, it's a pathway we have to tread to reach net zero in 2050" @lorddeben
Just like quite a few other modelling exercises, CCC use a spectrum between behaviour change and between technological change. #UKCarbonBudget.

Both = best (just like @AEMO_Media's Step Change scenario in their ISP)
'Balanced' is what they use for their recs. "We're doing 60% of the emissions reductions in the first 15 years, and then 40% in the next".

The slinky kitty curve....good to see. No evidence of delaying action to Dec 29 2049, here. #UKCarbonBudget
"By front loading, we're minimising the UK's contribution to cumulative emissions" - really important point. A slow path to net zero - more climate harm than a fast one. #UKCarbonBudget
"This is our rainbow of abatement" - nice @IEA-style split-out of how to cut emissions to near-zero by 2050. Reducing demand for CO2 intensive stuff (flying, meat) is quite a big purple chunk there. #UKCarbonBudget
This is a really interesting graphic:

Orange = purely behavioural change
Purple = purely tech
Red (pink??) = a mix of tech and behaviour

"There is nothing to be afraid of at all.......they won't be major change to our lifestyles", on the red wedge #UKCarbonBudget
UK will need a huge amount of (mostly private) investment in new zero carbon assets, but the savings from not buying fossil fuels eventually cancel that out.

"Any notion that we can't afford to tackle climate change is clearly nonsense" #ukcarbonbudget
"The challenge is not to rely on a pandemic to cut emissions. The key is to drive changes that last"

CC @AngusTaylorMP #ukcarbonbudget
"We're hitting a million heat pump installations by 2030", in addition to nearly 100% of new car sales being electric (small amount of hybrids) #ukcarbonbudget, w/ 30TWh of H2 produced.

Zero carbon elec by 2035 (just like the US). No new sales of gas boilers by 2033
"The crucial point here is that this is all genuinely feasible......but it is also genuinely challenging" #UKcarbonbduget @ChiefExecCCC
"Gas is not acting as a bridge fuel. It's a fossil fuel and we need to move away from it" #UKcarbondget
Nice comparison of emissions vs temps. The decisions made to cause the problem have mattered - the decisions made to stop it matter too.

#ukcarbonbudget
A familiar accent from @pilitaclark during the Q&A session.... #ukcarbonbudget https://t.co/faxRj5KF8x
"If you take the time to guide people through this, they're really supportive of action" on how to integrate behaviour change into net zero. Can't help but think of toxic UK media outlets and how easily they could ruin all that. #UKCarbonBudget
Aus media and conservatives used a "the government is coming to take your car" narrative in 2019 on efficiency standards and it definitely helped them win an election #UKCarbonBudget
A really interesting point from @ChiefExecCCC - the hard, empirical pathway (spreadsheets) and the qualitative, consultation-led pathway (climate assemblies, etc) both end up in really similar places. #UKCarbonBudget
Lord Deben literally having an air-sourced heat pump installed during the call #UKCarbonBudget
He's got biomass backup #UKCarbonBudget
On heat pumps and the suggestion to phase out gas boilers in thirteen years - these are two headline describing precisely the same piece of news:

#UKCarbonBudget
"While its great to hear commitments to net zero.....the path by which we get there is crucial. It's the accumulated CO2 emissions in the atmosphere that are changing the climate.......they must have a tough intermediate target. The 2030 NDCs are crucial"

#UKCarbonBudget
By 2030, the UK won't be building any more new unabated gas plants (that should surely be.....now, right?), under the CCC's balanced pathway scenario #UKCarbonBudget
UK shifting energy from oil+gas into electricity+hydrogen ends up with a total *lower* amount of energy consumption, because electricity is just so much more efficient.

Also see: @GriffithSaul's @rewiringamerica work!

Or: https://t.co/BYvbPTPX6e #UKCarbonBudget

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A brilliant talk that punctures current discourse on climate ambition in Scotland, setting out what's really needed, by @KevinClimate for @ScotClimateCA

📽️ https://t.co/i02FtSkJT8 📽️

Well worth watching. Otherwise, here's a summary thread 👇
1/10

Want scientific assessment of what Scotland should do to achieve Paris Agreement temperature targets? Look to carbon budgets. See that a failure to rapidly reduce emissions will eat up the carbon budget in just a few years, leaving impossible burdens for future generations. 2/10


Are UK emissions down 45% in 30 years? Not when including emissions from aviation & shipping, and imports & exports – then they are only down 10%. Over three decades, we have had reductions of less than 0.5% per year. 3/10


Scotland’s average per person consumption emissions are still double the global average. Scotland’s consumption emissions have not meaningfully reduced in the last 20 years… 4/10


Principles of global equity and justice mean that Scotland’s fair slice of the global carbon budget is just a few hundred million tonnes of CO2, which is less than ten years of Scotland’s emissions at current levels. 5/10
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Many wonder how epidemiology could have become so politicized. But epidemiology - like climate science (the other "mysteriously politicized" subject) has intrinsic politics: to take epidemiology seriously, you have to acknowledge that our species has a shared destiny.

1/


Much of the debate over "liberty" can be summed up as "you do you" - I'll swing my arm over here, you keep your nose over there, and so long as we both respect each others' "freedom," I won't punch you in the nose and your nose will remain unpunched.

2/

This breaks down when applied to epidemiology: "You wear your mask, I'll leave mine at home, and we'll both exercise our freedoms" is like "You swim in the no-pissing end of the pool, I'll swim down here in the pissing end, and we'll both get our way."

3/

We're in the same epidemiological pool, and the science is clear: masking's benefit is primarily in protecting others from you - your presymptomatic, asymptomatic (or symptomatic) spread of particles. Your decision not to wear a mask puts me in danger.

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If your worldview ascribes political outcomes to individual choices (implying that poverty or misfortune are the result of a combination of laziness and inferiority), then anything that demands a systemic view challenges its very foundations.

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What were the big energy and climate surprises of the Trump era? Four years ago, I described the most plausible arc for US climate policy under Trump (it was a boring, safe bet) but expected there'd be unexpected developments too. So how about a look back? https://t.co/1Valz4eTEg


1) The pandemic was a huge surprise, obviously, though maybe it's too early to say how that will affect the energy/climate landscape. So far, it’s put a brake on U.S. fracking and induced Europe to pledge staggering sums on hydrogen. Maybe global CO2 emissions have peaked, idk.

2) The growth of battery storage on the US grid has, I think, been a surprise. This interview with @jburwen does a nice job of laying out the truly staggering changes in the storage landscape since 2015, driven by falling costs and some key policy changes.

3) The impact of the IPCC report on 1.5°C was surprising to me. I often wondered what'd happen once it became clear that the world was unlikely to stay below 2°C. Instead, the climate community and world leaders rallied around an even more aggressive, harder to hit target!

4) It was not obvious that Trump's retreat from climate action would spur states, cities, companies, other nations to make even more aggressive net zero pledges of their own. But that’s what happened—those pledges have really proliferated at a scale that’s been surprising to me.
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As 2020 comes to a close, we're taking a look back at some of our best reporting on the environment.

The American landscape has become 48 times more toxic to insects since the 1990s, a shift largely fueled by rising use of neonicotinoid insecticides.

Banned in the EU, a sophisticated information war has kept these insecticides on the U.S. market.

Amid California's severe wildfires, grape growers in Sonoma County got exemptions to send in farmworkers who have few alternatives or options for support into fire evacuation zones.

With Trump's election, a small and previously marginalized group of toxics apologists suddenly took control over health and environmental regulations, ushering in higher profits for polluters and higher cancer rates for the American people.

Steven Donziger won a multibillion-dollar judgment against Chevron in Ecuador. The company sued him in New York — as of December, he has been under house arrest for over 500 days.
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Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel

He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:

He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:

He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
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