BC CLIMATE CHANGE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

The whiteness of this piece on "climate refugees" (corrected link) is deep.

 The piece centers the story of Jen and Ryan Cashman, a white couple + their kids who used to live in Paradise, California.
It does include an interview with Dr. @JalonneWNewsome who explains that climate change hits folks of color harder, and they may be less able to move due to fewer economic resources + less willing to move b/c of greater ties to their communities.
After this perfunctory nod to her excellent work, then the reporter (*cough* abuser *cough*) goes on to segue with one of the biggest "yeah, buts" I've ever heard...
"If you have the luxury of choosing where to live and climate change is a factor, here's the formula..."
"...you want to be far enough inland to avoid rising sea levels..."
"...far enough north to avoid the worst of the heat waves..."
"...far enough west to avoid hurricanes..."
far enough *north
"...and far enough east to avoid wildfires"
"...droughts are also becoming worse in our western states, so you also want plenty of fresh water..."
"So, where does that leave you? The Great Lakes." And, specifically, Madison, Wisconsin.
As a climate change bonus, Madison is actually not that cold anymore.
[according to the reporter + the mayor of Madison]
The interview with the mayor of Madison does include a nod (again perfunctory) to the racial disparities in the "high quality of life" in Madison.
"Now, no place is perfect, even Madison," the reporter says in aw-shucks-folksiness.
"When we make another 'number 1' or 'top 10' [best places to live], well that's clearly true of the white population.

Is that also true for people of color? And the answer is almost always no, it's not."
"That's part of our work going forward."

Reporter segue: no comment about race, "Madison isn't the only great 'climate haven' city."
And, circle back to the Cashmans, burned out of Paradise, California, + who frame the piece. What 'climate haven' did they end up in with their new white kitchen?
In Burlington, Vermont, which has 85.28% white people.

https://t.co/r7CDK8ttQ9
"And the Cashmans couldn't be happier." [reporter]

"It's green, there are no forest fires." [mom]

"It's just a very healthy, functional place." [dad]

"The community embraced us immensely." [mom] //
"I knew we made the right decision." [mom]
There's lots in this one report, but it's telling about the way the climate crisis is unfolding, including:
The "nuclear family as fortress." Here it's the Cashmans who are, as far as this report is concerned, alone in the world against the climate crisis of wildfires.
They not only have the resources to be able to move from CA to VT, but they have apparently no deep community ties (or even, ties to the actual land) holding them to one place or another.
This is a key feature in this new iteration of settler colonialism. Just moving on from one place to another, looking for "the best" in "natural resources" and infrastructure for their nuclear family/fortress.
There's also zero in this report about addressing climate change for ALL of us.
I mean, wtf happens when all the Cashmans/ go to the Great Lakes region.

Will they want to build a wall around it? A mote, perhaps?
And the disgusting remove of this reporter, who reacts to word of the impact of climate crisis on communities of color like he's just learned that pigs can, in fact, fly.
This is the "concern" of whiteness. The suffering of anyone outside the Nuclear Family/Fortress is of no real consequence.
This is what we're up against with *ANYTHING* that requires a collective response, COVID-19, healthcare, social security, a social safety net, gun control, democracy, climate crisis, ALL of it.
We can't have nice things because people like the Cashmans think only of their family + reporters like that one + the network he's on legitimate their choices.
We have to reimagine kinship + think beyond the nuclear family as the highest good, or it will be our undoing. //fin

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What were the big energy and climate surprises of the Trump era? Four years ago, I described the most plausible arc for US climate policy under Trump (it was a boring, safe bet) but expected there'd be unexpected developments too. So how about a look back? https://t.co/1Valz4eTEg


1) The pandemic was a huge surprise, obviously, though maybe it's too early to say how that will affect the energy/climate landscape. So far, it’s put a brake on U.S. fracking and induced Europe to pledge staggering sums on hydrogen. Maybe global CO2 emissions have peaked, idk.

2) The growth of battery storage on the US grid has, I think, been a surprise. This interview with @jburwen does a nice job of laying out the truly staggering changes in the storage landscape since 2015, driven by falling costs and some key policy changes.

3) The impact of the IPCC report on 1.5°C was surprising to me. I often wondered what'd happen once it became clear that the world was unlikely to stay below 2°C. Instead, the climate community and world leaders rallied around an even more aggressive, harder to hit target!

4) It was not obvious that Trump's retreat from climate action would spur states, cities, companies, other nations to make even more aggressive net zero pledges of their own. But that’s what happened—those pledges have really proliferated at a scale that’s been surprising to me.
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The UK government's climate advisory body is launching its next carbon budget: basically, outlining what the UK can emit between 2033 and 2037. It's a big deal - launch video starting right now.
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Will tweet along snippets. Pretty relevant to...............everything, really. #UKCarbonBudget

"Instead of being just a budget, it's a pathway we have to tread to reach net zero in 2050" @lorddeben

Just like quite a few other modelling exercises, CCC use a spectrum between behaviour change and between technological change. #UKCarbonBudget.

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'Balanced' is what they use for their recs. "We're doing 60% of the emissions reductions in the first 15 years, and then 40% in the next".

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Comparing two environmental regulation

Preventing emissions vs improving water quality,

Which one better?

https://t.co/zLrVNWIPXm


What is the Difference?
We certainly often hear the term better to prevent than cure. Of course, we all agree on that. But what about improving quality, is that better than preventing?

A researcher named Dan Pan tries to compare 2 different regulations on environmental impacts.

One of the regulations is based on environmental quality limits. the other is based on the market, but we will call it improving water quality because it gives reward and punishment on environmental performance.

Preventing Emissions:

• Restrictions or closings of companies that violate environmental quality standards

• Restricted areas must protect their water

• Implementing comprehensive water conservation

• Strengthens water recovery and protection

Improving water quality

Give awards to mayors whose evaluation scores are good, and adequate, whose evaluations are bad. There are several parameters defined in determining water quality such as: COD intensity, water quality, and industrial wastewater standards
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Just as no amount of flat temperature data would dissuade the climate cult, so no amount of flat (or even negative!) data on mask effectiveness will shake the faith of the Church of Covid. Beautiful Theories cannot be disproven by mere information.

The "Covid emergency" will never be over. It will mutate and seek out new missions when this particular virus threat abates, repurposing its funding and clinging to its power. They're already talking up the "next pandemic" and how we must forever remain at DEFCON 2 to be ready.

Masks are now a visible and tangible symbol of an entire agenda. Its champions will use every means possible to force you to wear them forever, including corporate pressure, their new favorite tool. Expect commercial mask requirements to linger, especially big corporations.

True believers, meanwhile, will wear their masks with grim determination and scowl ostentatiously at everyone who refuses to join them. It's a new virtue signal that will not go away any time soon. Mask scolding is a quick, easy, heady power rush.

All the while, studies will keep rolling out that masks don't help, and might even hurt. That was fairly common medical knowledge before the pandemic began, but it was aggressively suppressed when masks became a political symbol, and a totem for people desperate to DO SOMETHING.
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@hausfath
Fascinating new paper by @AndrewDessler and colleagues arguing committed warming might be higher than expected given historical pattern effects. Its combining a lot of different concepts together, so lets spend some time disentangling them https://t.co/ILi5z515Qy

A thread: 1/19

The paper's headline number is that we previously thought the world was committed to 1.3C warming, but that number is actually over 2C (> 1.5C by 2100). This is quite a different message than we get from Earth System Models, which suggest committed warming is only ~1.2C. 2/19

This would imply that the 1.5C by 2100 target is effectively impossible, and that long-term warming of >2C would be very difficult to avoid. However, the devil is in the details, and the picture is not quite as dire as it would seem at first glance. 3/19

When we talk about "committed warming" folks are generally talking about one of two scenarios: either constant CO2 and other GHG concentrations (and forcings), or getting all emissions (or just CO2 emissions) down to zero immediately. 4/19

In the first method – constant concentrations – we find that the world warms up another 0.5C or so, as the oceans continue to take up heat as more energy is being trapped by greenhouse gases than is being emitted back to space. Much of this additional warming happens by 2100 5/19
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Nothing is wrong with patterns.

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Sure 👇

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2. Too logical is bad.

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You will never reach productivity if you are aimlessly only following each others emotions.

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