BC CATEGORY C19
Saved by @vliscony

BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

 "Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"
"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"
"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"
Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
1 in 2,000 INCLUDING FALSE POSITIVES classifies Covid19 as a rare disease in winter 20-21
https://t.co/29FNwq0Qw2
Stefano Scoglio, Nobel prize candidate 2018, has calculated a real false positive rate of 95% from official Italian Health Service numbers. This is in line with #BayersTheorem. Calculation in links in thread:
https://t.co/rthjPRJWeB
If we apply the 95% false positive (Scoglio) back to England positive test % incl. false positive: 0.05% (ONS), we get a real % of positives in England of 0.0025% of the population, or 1 in 40,000 people. This would confirm Covid19 as a rare disease as per #BayersTheorem.
Try this calculator for up to 100 tests. https://t.co/5TKEYpjd80
Severe Covid19 is a rare disease in England, if tests are 100% accurate, acc. to hospitalization numbers, it's 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 people.
https://t.co/kFnQVoCspb
#BayesTheorem applied to LF tests: https://t.co/3OrdS7ZFUJ
A simple example of #BayesTheorem with a prevalence of 0.1% (much higher than Covid19) an error range of 1% (RT-PCR Charité range est. 0.8-4%) and only 1,000 people tested: 91% false positives.
#BayesTheorem in simple terms: when medical mass testing includes asymptomatics & the disease affects a minority of the population, a very small margin of error in the testing process will mathematically result in the false positives being many times more than the real positives.
"Covid19"[😞] mass testing graph from The Economist. Y axis being % of test results either true or false. As share of population with active infection (X axis) is well under 1%, most positive tests are false, & most negative results are true. This is called #BAYESTHEOREM.
Latest England estimates:
https://t.co/8hsZ1hNjD7
How to increase the prevalence of a rare disease from 0.01% to 1%? Test the asymptomatics. What prevalence do we estimate Covid19 at including asymptomatic tested? Less than 1%. What could the true prevalence be if we exclude asymptomatic testing? 0.01%. It's called #BayesTheorem
Proof that Matt Hancock is aware of #BayesTheorem, he mentions Bayesian mathematics: https://t.co/hpZYDzD5Pe
As Matt Hancock is clearly aware of #BayesTheorem, if he wanted to avoid the false positives being many more than the true positives, he would not say ONS is applying rigorous Bayesian mathematics, he would instead not implement testing of any asymptomatics not linked to a case.
Matt Hancock is pre-empting the #BayesTheorem false positive trap by mentioning Bayesian mathematics himself in reply. A Freudian slip, a lapsus which reveals what he is really thinking: how do I increase false positives to make Covid19 prevalence appear worse than it really is?
So how does he do it? He implements mass testing of asymptomatics in Universities, then schools. He uses the hierarchical power structures in these institutions to convince healthy students they need to be tested. The schools get closed on false positives, false fear is created.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.4% of 262 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.4% prevalence instead it's 0%.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.5% of 1,937 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.5% prevalence instead it's 0%.
Sorry this should say 0.4% of 263 students https://t.co/eSNnhyOI4n
See what happens in #BayesTheorem? Number of asymptomatic testing increases & the estimated prevalence of the disease increases!! This can be addressed by requiring confirmatory tests of those who test positive when numbers are small, otherwise DON'T test asymptomatics.
Cambridge Pooled Testing Report #BayesTheorem
https://t.co/BYIzoTl64c
To have the same number of false negatives as false positives you need a disease that is present in 30% of the population. Covid19 affects less than 1%. This means the false positives VASTLY outnumber both the real positives & the false negatives. It's called #BayesTheorem.
Matt Hancock claim: "the ONS report..address directly the question how the ONS adjusts for potential false positives, due to the high but not perfect specificity of the PCR test. I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics"
"I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics, which I am sure will help to elucidate the debate on this matter still further." @MattHancock to @DesmondSwayne
https://t.co/pZcFlMBKEZ
I am waiting for one of @MattHancock's academics to take us through this as I have seen no evidence of @ONS adjusting for false positives according to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/ykB67TJORe
Professor Emeritus in Public Health, University of Arizona:
https://t.co/aidVGWOVqH
WHO wakes up to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/nDKklwMhQe

More from Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc

Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Can any MP ask the government why early treatment kits to stop viral replication & infection are not made available cheaply & prescription free in pharmacies as they are in India? Is it lives we want to save or is it Big Pharma profits? Because the two are mutually exclusive.


There could even be competing kits, & the decision which to take could be left to doctors & patients, as happens with most medicines. The problem is that there is not one of these kits available cheaply & prescription free anywhere in the West.

Doxycycline, Ivermectin, Azithromycin, Hydroxychloroquine, Zinc, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, omega-3s, all approved as safe drugs decades ago. This is clearly not an issue of safety. It should be left to a doctor's experience & judgement whether they are effective or not, not academia.

A GP could simply state on his website: of all the kits I recommend Kit Z, then Kit Y etc. No need to wait hours for consultations, as soon as the symptoms are clear the self administered treatment begins, and thousands of lives are saved, as well as hospitals remain underwhelmed

There is no need to go to ER or ICU if people can buy early treatment kits from pharmacies. There is no need for any hospital to be overwhelmed. This problem could be resolved in days. There is simply no political will to save lives as it means to go against Big Pharma profits.
HEALTH
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
You know why they didn't try anything like this in the 1970s? Because a generation which remembered WW2 & were still strong enough would not have let them. Politicians were scared of people's reactions back then. They were literally scared for their lives. What happened?

Also, the State did not simply consist of politicians backed by a few regime journalists. There was a much stronger judiciary & military. We would already have seen the military remove deranged politicians leading any country into ruin like this.

The military would have turned against any government which indicated their role was to swab violate children or help inject people with unsafe experimental RNA altering drugs for a virus with a 99.7+% survival rate. They would have taken power by now. What happened?

The most important lesson we can teach our children are the lessons the parents who remembered WW2 taught theirs: how to say NO to a government that is going in a direction you disagree with before it's too late.

This has to start at refusing schools being turned into biosecurity propaganda outposts, asymptomatic testing stations, anti-science brainwashing institutions on masks, repeated swab violation of children's bodies for no gain & to artificially create false positive disruption
SOCIETY
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Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
I have now re-examined this document:


It clearly does indicate both the risks of bacterial infection & to prescribe broad spectrum antibiotics as part of treatment:
"Collect blood cultures for bacteria that cause pneumonia and sepsis, ideally before antimicrobial therapy. DO NOT
delay antimicrobial therapy"

"6. Management of severe COVID-19: treatment of co-infections
Give empiric antimicrobials [broad spectrum antibiotics] to treat all likely pathogens causing SARI and sepsis as soon as possible, within 1 hour
of initial assessment for patients with sepsis."

"Empiric antibiotic treatment should be based on the clinical diagnosis (community-acquired
pneumonia, health care-associated pneumonia [if infection was acquired in health care setting] or sepsis), local epidemiology &
susceptibility data, and national treatment guidelines"

"When there is ongoing local circulation of seasonal influenza, empiric therapy with a neuraminidase inhibitor [anti-viral influenza drugs] should
be considered for the treatment for patients with influenza or at risk for severe disease."
HEALTH
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Twitter removed 800 followers from my account today. People have been writing saying twitter automatically unfollowed me for them. Follow me on Parler @robinmonotti & Telegram https://t.co/o5rFaSrCpa to bypass this.

I have already left both Facebook & Instagram. We need to keep agile.

They will try to ban Parler, blaming it for Capitol theatre. I think Telegram may survive as it's not based in the

Yes Telegram owner @durov received & accepted what effectively is an award, not a partnership: the Young Global Leaders membership of the World Economic Forum in 2017. Does this mean he passes users info on? I don't think so.

This is what @Snowden had to say about @durov. Since then Telegram introduced the option of end to end encrypted chats not saved in Telegram servers. These private chats cannot be forwarded, and none of the participants can capture screenshots of
TWITTER
Robin Monotti MA FRSA \u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA ...
@robinmonotti
They are now saying my tweets are misleading. It's another lie. They are the ones who are misleading, and I will now prove it in this thread. They are lying about the safety of the vaccines:

"Why was vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca suspended?" Paul-Erlich Federal Institute for Vaccines & Biomedicines,

"A specific form of severe cerebral venous thrombosis associated with platelet deficiency (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding has been identified in seven cases (as of 15 March 2021) in temporal association with vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca."

"1. It is a very serious disease that is also difficult to treat. Of the seven affected individuals, three individuals had died."

"2. The affected individuals had ages ranging from about 20 to 50 years."
CATEGORY C19

More from Category c19

Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
@Thomas_Binder
1/12

RT-PCR corona (test) scam

Symptomatic people are tested for one and only one respiratory virus. This means that other acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


2/12

It is tested exquisitely with a hypersensitive non-specific RT-PCR test / Ct >35 (>30 is nonsense, >35 is madness), without considering Ct and clinical context. This means that more acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


3/12

The Drosten RT-PCR test is fabricated in a way that each country and laboratory perform it differently at too high Ct and that the high rate of false positives increases massively due to cross-reaction with other (corona) viruses in the "flu


4/12

Even asymptomatic, previously called healthy, people are tested (en masse) in this way, although there is no epidemiologically relevant asymptomatic transmission. This means that even healthy people are declared as COVID


5/12

Deaths within 28 days after a positive RT-PCR test from whatever cause are designated as deaths WITH COVID. This means that other causes of death are reclassified as
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA\U0001f338
Robin Monotti FRSA🌸...
@robinmonottibis
Let's talk about MASKS!


Thread 1:


Masks increase mortality because breathing through them nebulizes aerosols into smaller ones which bypass mucosal immunity & reach all the way into the alveoli, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).


"Aerosols..within the most breathable size range between 0.5 & 5 μm, can carry SARS-CoV-2 deep to the terminal alveoli..if this transmission pathway does exist, it would bypass the mucociliary clearance & incubation period of the virus in the upper

The filtration material itself of N95's average pore size ~0.3−0.5 μm does not block finer aerosol laden with virions penetration, not to mention surgical masks.
CATEGORY C19
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Brumby
Brumby
@the_brumby
This will be my first and possibly last tweet (thread) as I am mostly here to learn. It is prompted by a recent study questioning lockdown efficacy that is getting a lot of attention. It appears people believe it to be the first of its kind, but I have been collecting similar

studies since March 2020. Below are 30 published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no efficacy (despite unconscionable harms) along with a key quote or two from each:

1.https://t.co/VseXe862AX

“there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”

2.https://t.co/EzTSzeZyue

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

3.https://t.co/4c4LqeQ5bz

“government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality”
CATEGORY C19
Bobby Rajesh Malhotra \u30c4
Bobby Rajesh Malhotra ...
@Bobby_Network
Today we peek inside the current situation in Israel: how Netanyahu sold his people to Pfizer/BioNTech & Co, conducting mass-experiments on the populace, dividing the nation into a two-class society with a 𝓖𝖗𝖊𝖊𝖓 𝓟𝖆𝖘𝖘-push, thus entirely ignoring the Nuremberg Code.
⬇️


2/: 18th November 2020:

Israel’s health officials were desperate.

@Pfizer announced: Their vaccine was “95% effective VS COVID-19".

Israel had ordered millions of doses from @moderna_tx & @AstraZeneca, the @Pfizer/@BioNTech_Group-miracle cure was missing in their stock.


3/: How did Israel subsequently acquire an estimated four to five million doses of the Pfizer miracle in Dec 2020- enough to vaccinate at least two million people in Israel? Netanyahu wanted to outdo himself and show that he could single-handedly save the nation, thus the world.


4/: Meanwhile Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed had highest priority in the US, @netanyahu & Trump held secret negotiations w/ all major manufacturers at the same time. Both failed to disclose in their campaigns: COVID-19 mRNA-vaccines are experimental.

5/: @Pfizer/@BioNTech_Group & @moderna_tx mRNA vaccines (better call them gene therapies) haven’t yet completed phase 3 clinical trials.
Both mRNA miracle cures haven't been licensed by the @US_FDA, approved for “Emergency Use Authorization” (EUA) only.
CATEGORY C19 , CATEGORY C19
Ken McCarthy
Ken McCarthy
@KenMcCarthy
It's all here folks...How the CoVid Con was 37 years in the marking

3/4
https://t.co/WBAnAUO0UU
CATEGORY C19

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IMPORTANCE OF SATYA NARAYAN KATHA AND ITS ORIGIN.

We all have heard and read the Satyanarayan katha. But none of us dont know the original stories that Shatanand or Sadhu or Kalavati must have heard. Also, as a habit we hear or read this katha


but dont know the proper way it should be conducted.

We find its mention in Skanda puraan(Reva khand) and Bhavishya Puraan(Pratisarg parva).
Both Bhagwatam and Gita call Bhagwan Narayan as Satv or Truth. So Satyanarayan denotes this name as the one which is Truth incarnate.

The story began in Naimisharanya when Vyasji asked Sutji about a way to eliminate all the sorrows and fulfill all the desires and about who is the devta who can grant these at the same time.

So Suutji first prayed to Bhagwan Satyanarayan who is no one else but Vishnu ji.

Then he remembered all his avatars.After that he narrated the story of Narad. Once while visiting Mrityulok, Naradji was pained to see the sufferings of People around. He was deeply moved by these sufferings and wanted to know the means by which we could rid ourselves from these.

So he went to Vishnu ji and after paying his respects stood in front of him. Naradji narrated the purpose of his visit.

So Bhagwan Vishnu said to him that in Satyug and Tretayug, Bhagwan eliminates sorrow in Vishnuswarup. In Dwapar he assumes different forms to help people.
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3/ Jassa Singh was educated in Delhi, in Persian, Arabic & more, under the care & supervision of Mata Sundari Ji.

Mata Sundari Gurdwara in Delhi.


4/ In 1733, Jassa Singh's mama, Thag Singh (ਤਾਗ ਸਿੰਘ), requested Mata Sundari Ji's permission to take Jassa Singh back to Punjab.


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Steve
Steve
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Ivor Cummins has been wrong (or lying) almost entirely throughout this pandemic and got paid handsomly for it.

He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...


... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:


Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.

Tweet: https://t.co/36FnYnsRT9


Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x


Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq
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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
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WHY BABUR NEVER TRIED TO ATTACK SRI KRISHNADEVARAYA ?

A🧵u must read

It is very well known that Babur considered Krishna Dev Raya as the strongest ruler of the entire subcontinent, and Vijayanagar empire the strongest during that time in India.

1/10


The Vijayanagar empire reached its peak during 1509-1529 around the reign of Krishna Dev Raya.

Vijayanagar’s famed elephant brigade 👇

2/10


At his command there were over 50000 elite troops with a regiment of Portuguese gunners and 3200 cavalry with 600 elephants.

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Along with that more than four hundred thousand ( four lakh) peasant levies and irregular military made this empire one of the largest in all of South Asia.

A typical Vijayanagar levie soldier 👇

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During Baburs invasion, Krishna Dev Raya ruled supreme in all of deccan.

In fact, in an all our brawl, Krisha Dev Raya will beat Babur fair and square.

Babur could muster at max 50000 troops with 50 canons.

While Krishna Dev Raya had these numbers in Hampi alone

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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
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Srikanteshwara Temple,
#Nanjangud  #Karnatakatemples 🚩

Srikanteshwara Temple or
Nanjundeshwara Temple is a famous Shiva Temple located in Karnataka at the bank of river  Kapila. Temple is also called Varanasi of South. Nanjunda means one who has consumed poison.


Story is  related to the Samudra Mathanam when Paramashiva had to consume halahala.

Parashurama worshipped Mahadeva here to relieve himself from the curse of Mathru Hatya. While clearing the place to do poojas Parashurama's  axe hit the Shivalingam and it began bleeding, that


mark is still visible even today. Thus
it is also believed that Parashurama did Shiva Prathishta here

Sthala Puranam says that, once there was a demon named Keshi who disturbed the people in the area, after  getting blessing from Brahma Deva  and Mahavishnu. Mahadeva appeared


here and killed demon Keshi and blessed this place as Papa Vinashini. Whoever praying to Srikanteshwara or Nanjundeshwara, after bathing in the  Kabini River will be relieved from all sins.

Nanjundeshwaraya Namah
🙏🕉🙏
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