BC CATEGORY C19
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BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

 "Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"
"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"
"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"
Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
1 in 2,000 INCLUDING FALSE POSITIVES classifies Covid19 as a rare disease in winter 20-21
https://t.co/29FNwq0Qw2
Stefano Scoglio, Nobel prize candidate 2018, has calculated a real false positive rate of 95% from official Italian Health Service numbers. This is in line with #BayersTheorem. Calculation in links in thread:
https://t.co/rthjPRJWeB
If we apply the 95% false positive (Scoglio) back to England positive test % incl. false positive: 0.05% (ONS), we get a real % of positives in England of 0.0025% of the population, or 1 in 40,000 people. This would confirm Covid19 as a rare disease as per #BayersTheorem.
Try this calculator for up to 100 tests. https://t.co/5TKEYpjd80
Severe Covid19 is a rare disease in England, if tests are 100% accurate, acc. to hospitalization numbers, it's 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 people.
https://t.co/kFnQVoCspb
#BayesTheorem applied to LF tests: https://t.co/3OrdS7ZFUJ
A simple example of #BayesTheorem with a prevalence of 0.1% (much higher than Covid19) an error range of 1% (RT-PCR Charité range est. 0.8-4%) and only 1,000 people tested: 91% false positives.
#BayesTheorem in simple terms: when medical mass testing includes asymptomatics & the disease affects a minority of the population, a very small margin of error in the testing process will mathematically result in the false positives being many times more than the real positives.
"Covid19"[😞] mass testing graph from The Economist. Y axis being % of test results either true or false. As share of population with active infection (X axis) is well under 1%, most positive tests are false, & most negative results are true. This is called #BAYESTHEOREM.
Latest England estimates:
https://t.co/8hsZ1hNjD7
How to increase the prevalence of a rare disease from 0.01% to 1%? Test the asymptomatics. What prevalence do we estimate Covid19 at including asymptomatic tested? Less than 1%. What could the true prevalence be if we exclude asymptomatic testing? 0.01%. It's called #BayesTheorem
Proof that Matt Hancock is aware of #BayesTheorem, he mentions Bayesian mathematics: https://t.co/hpZYDzD5Pe
As Matt Hancock is clearly aware of #BayesTheorem, if he wanted to avoid the false positives being many more than the true positives, he would not say ONS is applying rigorous Bayesian mathematics, he would instead not implement testing of any asymptomatics not linked to a case.
Matt Hancock is pre-empting the #BayesTheorem false positive trap by mentioning Bayesian mathematics himself in reply. A Freudian slip, a lapsus which reveals what he is really thinking: how do I increase false positives to make Covid19 prevalence appear worse than it really is?
So how does he do it? He implements mass testing of asymptomatics in Universities, then schools. He uses the hierarchical power structures in these institutions to convince healthy students they need to be tested. The schools get closed on false positives, false fear is created.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.4% of 262 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.4% prevalence instead it's 0%.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.5% of 1,937 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.5% prevalence instead it's 0%.
Sorry this should say 0.4% of 263 students https://t.co/eSNnhyOI4n
See what happens in #BayesTheorem? Number of asymptomatic testing increases & the estimated prevalence of the disease increases!! This can be addressed by requiring confirmatory tests of those who test positive when numbers are small, otherwise DON'T test asymptomatics.
Cambridge Pooled Testing Report #BayesTheorem
https://t.co/BYIzoTl64c
To have the same number of false negatives as false positives you need a disease that is present in 30% of the population. Covid19 affects less than 1%. This means the false positives VASTLY outnumber both the real positives & the false negatives. It's called #BayesTheorem.
Matt Hancock claim: "the ONS report..address directly the question how the ONS adjusts for potential false positives, due to the high but not perfect specificity of the PCR test. I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics"
"I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics, which I am sure will help to elucidate the debate on this matter still further." @MattHancock to @DesmondSwayne
https://t.co/pZcFlMBKEZ
I am waiting for one of @MattHancock's academics to take us through this as I have seen no evidence of @ONS adjusting for false positives according to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/ykB67TJORe
Professor Emeritus in Public Health, University of Arizona:
https://t.co/aidVGWOVqH
WHO wakes up to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/nDKklwMhQe

More from Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc

Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
The problem with meta-analysis like this is that it obfuscates the most important issue of treatment, which is timing.


This meta-analysis of controlled trials only looks at hospitalized patients. How long were the patients ill for before being hospitalized? One week? Two? Three? Too late for zinc ionophores (HCQ) (+ZINC? No zinc no point..) to work. Severe illness becomes bacterial in nature.

Was azythromycin administered when the bacterial infections were also too advanced? I have seen Azythromycin work with my very own eyes but that's not to say that if administered too late it may not save the patient. How many patients were given AZT & ventilated? It's all timing.

All the meta-analysis is telling us is if you leave it too late you may have missed the early window for antiviral zinc treatment (Zn+HCQ) & that if you are given AZT when you are ventilated or very severe it may too late for it to save you & corticosteroids may be last resort.

And of course antibiotics need also probiotics, or they may harm the bacterial flora which is part of the immune response. Difficult to tell from a meta-analysis how this problem was managed.
MOVIE
Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
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Robin Monotti MA FRSA \u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA ...
@robinmonotti
They are now saying my tweets are misleading. It's another lie. They are the ones who are misleading, and I will now prove it in this thread. They are lying about the safety of the vaccines:

"Why was vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca suspended?" Paul-Erlich Federal Institute for Vaccines & Biomedicines,

"A specific form of severe cerebral venous thrombosis associated with platelet deficiency (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding has been identified in seven cases (as of 15 March 2021) in temporal association with vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca."

"1. It is a very serious disease that is also difficult to treat. Of the seven affected individuals, three individuals had died."

"2. The affected individuals had ages ranging from about 20 to 50 years."
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Twitter removed 800 followers from my account today. People have been writing saying twitter automatically unfollowed me for them. Follow me on Parler @robinmonotti & Telegram https://t.co/o5rFaSrCpa to bypass this.

I have already left both Facebook & Instagram. We need to keep agile.

They will try to ban Parler, blaming it for Capitol theatre. I think Telegram may survive as it's not based in the

Yes Telegram owner @durov received & accepted what effectively is an award, not a partnership: the Young Global Leaders membership of the World Economic Forum in 2017. Does this mean he passes users info on? I don't think so.

This is what @Snowden had to say about @durov. Since then Telegram introduced the option of end to end encrypted chats not saved in Telegram servers. These private chats cannot be forwarded, and none of the participants can capture screenshots of
TWITTER
Robin Monotti Graziadei
Robin Monotti Graziade...
@robinmonotti
"PCR is just a process..it does not tell you that you are sick."

Kary Mullis Inventor of the PCR test & Nobel Prize in
PCR

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MUST

Tedros says something all member states who are part of the WHO have to obey by law

@11:00 Bill Gates requested to be part of the executive board like a member state

Swiss medics (the FDA of Switzerland) has signed a contract with Bill Gates and WHO

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2/: In this thread, I will roughly explain why #empiricism and #repeatability are important factors for science and why model approaches should be interpreted with caution (and that is what I am saying as a modeller).

3/: I am aware that the principle of science is far more profound than explained in this thread, but this thread is written for laymen on @twitter and not for the lecture room. Also, within the scientific community, there is no clear consensus about this topic either.

4/: In recent years, I have been working on complex food production systems that increase food production and show high nutrient and water use efficiencies. I have thus been involved in plant growth experiments and holistic system modelling activities (@MATLAB, @AnyLogicCo).


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1/n Presenting Part One of my second trilogy (following the 2020 Lockdown Trilogy) in my Cartoon series:

“The War of the Worlds & Age of Extinction Cometh – The Transformers of MolBiol”

A comprehensive guide of the imagery found in this canvas is contained in this thread:


2/n Starting at the upper RH part of the image and moving from right to left, one first sees the “Three Witches of Molbiol” riding on a Trojan Horse. The three witches (ref: Macbeth) are depicted as enablers of the crisis via their mischief = misuse of molecular biology.


3/n Let us start with the arguably fake Prof. Drosten who heads the Charité Institute in Berlin. Drosten led work to develop a first PCR test protocol for SARS-CoV-2 published by @Eurosurveillanc in record time and promoted by WHO as a ‘gold standard’.


4/n Had Drosten done his work honestly and produced a test capable of detecting the SARS-CoV-2 entity, all might be well today, but he did not. His manifest scientific failings and problems with conflicts of interest are fully documented in here:

5/n Of course Drosten could not have carried off this piece of MolBiol sleight of hand all on his own. He needed accomplices & global support. A key European ‘witch’ was Dutch based @MarionKoopmans , a co-author of the Corman-Drosten scientific paper.
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David Thunder
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—SOME QUESTIONS A GOOD JOURNALIST MIGHT ASK POLITICIANS & PUBLIC HEALTH AUTHORITIES: A THREAD—

1/ Why has the government NEVER undertaken a comprehensive impact assessment before approving & re-approving highly intrusive & costly lockdowns?

2/ Why has the govt not been fast-tracking safe, inexpensive, & effective drugs like #Ivermectin for early intervention, when Ivermectin has shown excellent results in clinical trials & would likely substantially reduce the rate of Covid hospitalisation & death?

3/ Why are you toying with the idea of a vaccine passport when we know that the vast majority of travelers run minimal risk from Covid-19, most serious cases occur among elderly & ill patients, & therefore it is sufficient if at risk patients take the vaccine?

4/ Are you familiar with the Nuremberg Code (1947) on permissible medical experiments & its protection of the right of patients to give informed consent to medical experiments? How is penalizing those who refuse a novel vaccine compatible with this

5/ So far, regions with harsh lockdowns & universal mask mandates are NOT avoiding spikes in infections, hospitalisation, & deaths, & performing comparably to non-lockdown, non-mask regimes. Why have you made no change in your policies in light of their demonstrable futility?
CATEGORY C19
VoidSurf
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SCB has dropped its final 2020 stats on deaths for Sweden. This chart is a breakdown by age for both sexes compared to 2018.

Most notably, there's no excess among children and people of working age, confirming the preliminary stats for males I had published earlier.


Here's the same data, but with spline interpolation applied to the 5-yr age groups. This just smooths out some of the random and cohort-related fluctuations. The picture is the same.


Unfortunately, the fact deaths are exclusively concentrated in the elderly age rage means that all of the deaths you see reported are pretty much all theirs. Fortunately, since they're generally retired, they don't need to sacrifice their livelihoods to protect themselves.

We need evidence-based mitigation strategies. Terrorizing a 15yo with imminent death is neither helpful nor honest. Closing schools isn't helpful (and Sweden hasn't). Be aware around your (grand)parents. Take care of them, make sure they understand the risks.

With the resources we have spent/lost on locking down people below 75 years old, I'm sure we could have devised a far superior targeted approach for those who need it and request it. We don't need to demolish our society, economy, and the lives of future generations to save lives
CATEGORY C19

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