1/x The window we have been targeting for 2 months has officially opened... i Can not imagine a more textbook display of the power of Vanna at expiration as we saw on Friday. The capital building was overrun by an insurrection, but all that that meant was a bigger late day rally.

1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;

2/x While visions of $TSLA danced in their heads;
& Biden in his Covid mask, & Powell with his still flowing money tap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap,
When out on the screen there arose such a clatter,
All sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.

3/x Away to their monitors they flew like a flash,
Tore open their Bloombergs & threw up the dash(board).
The S. Claus rally in markets, that all of us know,
Paired w/vaccine reopening, Gave a bid to the market, leaving old prices below,
When what to their wondering👀 did appear?

4/x But a Georgia runoff rushing up to them with complacency, not fear...
With once reliable Vanna flows no longer lively & quick,
They knew in a moment the markets might get quite sick...
Unexpected, 2 Georgia Dem peaches into Congress they came,

5/x Whistling & shouting they called for more fiscal, ‘CARES Too’ its new name:
"Now, Healthcare! Now, Infrastructure! Now Green Energy & Protectionism!
On, Labor rights! on, Minimum Wage! on, Basic Income & Populism!
To middle class households, To the poorest of them all!

4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will

6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be

7/x refreshed & in preelection form. The only question is will the animals be so out of control so as to not even be managed by Vanna in her best shape.. This decline fits into a narrative that I’ve had brewing for 4 months, that after a monster run since Sep this is a healthy &

8/x reasonable time to expect the animals to be tired of being caged up & want to blow off some steam. All the biggest wall of worry narratives have been solved 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning was at all time highs. Hedging activity was low. Breadth was deteriorating. W/

1/ Vanna’s a widow maker... waging war with her & Gary is exhausting... we were able to take a textbook short at 3803 and take a profit On half at 3771. We will look to add more in a similar way on tomorrow morning’s likely vanna rally again... looking for exuberance once again

2/ in that 9-10am CST window. The growing chorus of bulls emboldened by Vanna’s continued support the last few days gives me confidence that this opportunity will be there again. W/Gary & Vanna behind them the retail exuberance is rising to a fever pitch. This is exactly what we

3/ want to see. But what happens when their backup is gone?? Who’s going to buy this market at these increasingly higher levels this week. Better yet who’s going to buy it @ lower levels when they are forced to sell next week? Not Vanna. She’ll be @ the beach. It ain’t cool bein’

4/ no Jive Turkey so close to Thanksgiving (OpEx)... Bear Steepening of the yield curve took a breather yesterday & so did the stair steps, which was a bit discouraging, no 2 ways about it. But those pressures are far from over. But... remember w/ Vanna still at 1/2 force SPX was

5/ still just unchanged. W/out EOD vanna flows where would the market have been yesterday? The NDX generals continue to be violently shot 1 by 1 as the rotation continues. The last generals will be BTC & TSLA. Watch them closely... listen closely into the rally. The fear of Covid

1/x The market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning by both HF & Retail...After a strong Vanna run up overnight, as expected, retail exuberance exploded on the open in the form of retail call buying, this fragility, paired w/a)Mean reverting flows

2/x from pinned Index Vol b) well documented, risk parity rebalancing flows & c) selling flows tied to bank EOY liquidity constraints. In combination, these flows have together have amounted to substantive selling pressures, strong enough to counteract the positive vanna/ charm

3/x flows, & point to continued likely index RVol an IVol pinning...Historically, the week of quarterly OpEx markets are notoriously volatile intraday, but also mean reverting like we saw today. I think it is fair to expect continued IVol compression & more of the same underlying

4/x chop. Vanna/Charm flows will lose their oomph after Wed 12/16 vixperation morning. There’s a window of weakness which I’ve spoken to for a month that falls 12/16-12/23. That could open a brief window that could lead to revaluation of the real risk & short interest,post 1/6...

5/x but the overwhelming 10k 🦍 of index Vol compression should still hold any correction in time & price in check in the shortterm and it’ll be hard to have anything blow up too bad in SPX land given how cheap & abundant Xmas Vol is 12/23-12/24. NTM, a stim deal & potential Fed

The interview with CNBC of @chamath is a much watch because there is so much insight hidden underneath.

There are many things that caught my attention. The one thing was the abstraction that hedge fund strategies are all 'momentum' plays. What it seems to imply is that the marshaling of resources at an opportune time drives the future behavior of a stock.

From basic physics, we know that momentum is mass times velocity. So any 'momentum' tactic employs the variation of mass, velocity or both. Wrt stocks, mass is money and velocity is speed of trade.

We cannot argue that there are benefits of scale associated with having more money. Also, high-frequency trading has shown the value of high-speed trading. So in an abstract sense, market manipulation can involve a kind of momentum play.

The objective of stock trading is to buy a financial instrument at a low price and sell it at a higher price. The purpose of a momentum play is to front-run the decision process of other traders such that one acquires the assets before a decision is made.

THREAD:

Employees vs Employers

“We who toil for other people have all in some way been captured by pirates and sold into slavery.” –Law 24

It should be said plainly; employment is nothing more than the next step in the evolution of slavery.

The corporation you are employed by has a psychopathic level of indifference as to whether you live or die.

This is not Leftwing political rhetoric; it is a machiavellian reality you will have to contend with.

Your employer is not your ally; they are your adversary.

It is in your best interest for wages to be as high as possible, while it is in your employer’s best interest for wages to be as low as possible.

If you’re a Startup trying to compete with a Megacorp—the 800-pound Gorilla in the space—you need to understand the tax inherent to being a Gorilla

And then you need to make that tax work against the Gorilla—with your product's positioning & features

A thread on Gorilla taxes👇🏾

1/
Collaboration Tax

Getting two or more product groups at a megacorp to collaborate on creating a seamless end user experience is the hardest problem in computer science.

(I am not joking)

Examples of Collaboration Tax:

Calendly exists because the Gmail team & Calendar team haven’t worked together on creating a more seamless experience for that use case.

Loom might succeed because the Gmail, Video, Meet teams at Google are probably too busy with their own goals.

The takeaway for startups:

If you can create meaningful value by seamlessly integrating features of two or more distinct Gorilla products, you will typically have a lot of runway before the Gorilla can get its act together and eliminate its Collaboration Tax.

2/
Denominator Tax

Once a Gorilla’s product reaches massive scale (i.e. the denominator for its metrics gets very large), the pressure of OKRs & incentives will often force the Gorilla’s product teams to prioritize breadth of usage more than depth of usage.

The wealthiest person I know prints millions out of thin air in the real estate business.

This is what he does...

A thread.

He finds a distressed retail plaza. Let's say 50% of the space isn't leased.

On a 300,000 sf plaza that might mean 150k square feet is vacant.

If asking rent is $8 per square foot per year, that means the building has a "potential revenue" figure of of $2.4MM.

So in this retail center 50% is leased and 50% is vacant. So the actual revenue, right now, is $1.2MM.

Most retail leases are whats called "Triple Net" or "NNN". This means the tenant pays the taxes, insurance, maintenance and CAM (common area maintenance).

They basically pay all of the landlord's expenses (except debt service on any loans he/she has, of course).

Commercial properties are valued based on something called a "cap rate".

The equation is:

net operating income / (cap rate) = value

The cap rate is a %.

Think about it as the return on your money, annually, as a percentage, you spent to buy a property.