BC BUSINESS
Saved by @Alex1Powell

A thread on my experience and observations of the grocery delivery apps in India.

@Grofers @bigbasket_com @JioMart @flipkart supermart, @amazonIN and DMart Ready.

Live in Pune. So my experience is of this city. User experience may vary according to location.

1/11

 1)@Grofers - good app, good delivery timelines, decent prices, limited selection, delivery free above a certain threshold is a negative, point and Grofer cash not very good. Offers on checkout not proper and visible . Limited vegetables.
2/11
Private label selection, prices decent. Overall decent experience.

With advent of others may face stiff competition. Maybe acquired or merged with someone.

3/11
2) @bigbasket_com - good app, good delivery, timelines, decent prices, decent selection, delivery free over a threshold is a negative. Overall decent. Will face stiff competition. Will be acquired by someone.
4/11
3) @JioMart - started poorly. But improving by the day. Each experience better than prev one. First delivery was 4 days, then 2 days, then 1 day. Last delivery on same day. Not intimating delivery schedule is an irritant and needs improvement.
5/11
Fulfillment done by nearby RelFresh store. Prices superb. In many cases lower than DMart. App decent, can improve. No delivery charges is a big plus. This can be a big disruptor and will only grow. A potential force to reckon with.

6/11
4) @Flipkart SuperMart - newest entrant. Initial experience is good. Better than Amazon Pantry. Good prices, good delivery schedule. App decent. Delivery free above a threshold. Can be very good competition if they can keep it up. Has deep pockets, as is Walmart-backed.

7/11
5) Amazon Pantry - not upto the mark. Pantry section of app is a bit complicated. Selection poor. Needs a lot of improvements. Delivery mostly free.
8/11
6) DMart Ready - Decent prices. Delivery charges on purchases is a big turn-off. Delivery free only on pickup. App average. My least preferred option. DMart Ready still has a long way to go.

9/11
Overall, I think force to reckon with will be JioMart and Flipkart. Of course, can't count out Amazon, but it needs big improvements. DMart unless it thinks differently and cannot think from online perspective, will find it very difficult.

10/11
BigBasket and Grofers will find it difficult unless they merge or get acquired by someone with deep pockets.

11/11

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Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.

Government has helped the industry by various incentives like export subsidy, ethanol blending, allowing cane juice to ethanol conversion, msp, etc. UP and Maharashtra are the 2 major states in sugarcane plantations.

The 2 largest players in the world are Brazil and India. In Brazil sugarcane is used for ethanol a lot lot more than in India. Brazil is way ahead of any country in ethanol from cane.

US is the largest producer of ethanol in the world followed by Brazil. US uses mainly corn for making ethanol.

Indian sugar scenario: Sugar still constitutes 85% of revenue in sugar companies. So, essentially it has to do well for sugar companies to be profitable. We have had record production in last couple of years. Sugar opening stock at end of last sugar year was 14.5 mt.
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Accidents happens when one doesn't look at valuations.

A supposedly platform stock listed in 2019. OFS price was 320 Rs. High of 6396 made yesterday.

Mcap crossed 1 lac crore.

Company was affected by CoVid so will talk a bit on pre-CoVid nos.

1/3

Sales of 2300 cr in FY20. NP 730 cr. Company has a monopoly given by the govt. Business is good and many extensions taking place, which will take time to bear fruit, if at all. But valuation-wise it had gone bonkers.

2/3

Stock corrected 40%+ in 2 days. This is what can happen when one doesn't heed valuations. And ignores the risks to the business. And only looks at blue sky scenario.

A good company may not be a good investment, at any price.

3/3
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A thread I had done in sugar industry last year. A few things could have changed. But, I think there are huge challenges to the E20 story. Do we have underlying dynamics in place. Do read how much time it took for Brazil.

Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
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@Sanjay__Bakshi @katalystwealth Yes Sir. Extremely difficult to predict the top. Often top comes much before the best results. One needs to have some kind of strategy to exit. Maybe something like a multiple of replacement cost, P/B, historical upcycle margins, etc. But there is no exact science to predict top.
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There is no doubt that many new age businesses will do fantastically well for quiet a while.

But, will they turn out to be good stocks, is up for debate.

One needs to see how much of the growth has already been built up in the current price.

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A few divisions - Taobao (B2C marketplace), Tmall (High-end B2C marketplace), Alibaba (B2B marketplace, Cainiu(logistics)..

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Wtf?

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SoFi was founded in 2011 by 4 students who met at Stanford

🎓 The goal was to decrease the student debt burden by giving out lower rates than federal standards

💸 SoFi’s rates ranged from 5.99% to 6.5%, undercutting federal and privates rates which ranged from 6.8% to 16%


By September 2012, SoFi was reported to have commit over $ 200m in loans

📈 This increased to $ 450m by April 2014 and its borrowers reportedly got on average $ 9,400 in savings by refinancing their

💸 Today, SoFi wants to help its customers with every “financial” step of their journey, providing:

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· Renters insurance (powered by $LMND)

· ETFs

· Stocks & cryptos

· Credit card

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& more!


⏱ It has also understood that time-pressed and convenience-seeking young professionals value the following elements:

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And $SOFI thus turned itself into a convenient, affordable, transparent and user-friendly financial platform


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No one is going to do it for you

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As a founder, if you won't show up every single day, despite how you are feeling, or how the startup is doing or what the press is writing about you, or your cofounders not working out, or your product failing or your customers shouting

No one is going to do it for you

As a student, if you won't do things that scare you, that make you feel nervous, that challenge you, that intimidate you, that you have always wanted to do but never gathered the courage to

No one is going to do it for you

In your first job, if you are not going to make an effort to know how things have happened before and why, to meet new people, to seek help, to ask for feedback, to be patient with results, to not seek "impact" in the first month itself

No one is going to do it for you

If as a son/daughter you are not going to realize what your parents went through while growing up, that they want the same things from your life that you want for your self, that their path is different but there are reasons why

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2. We estimate that MaxCyte stands before a huge inflection point that will accelerate both growth and profitability. We have seen signs of the accelerating underlying activity by the fact that they in the last two years have added 9 of their 12 commercial agreements.

3. What makes MaxCyte unique compared to other “pick-and-shovel” businesses is their claim to milestones and royalties, something usually reserved for pharmaceutical companies.

4. As per the January update, MaxCyte has a potential pool of $950m in milestones, and a 2-3% (our estimates) of sales in royalties, that excludes licenses and consumables for the machines.

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