A thread on my experience and observations of the grocery delivery apps in India.

@Grofers @bigbasket_com @JioMart @flipkart supermart, @amazonIN and DMart Ready.

Live in Pune. So my experience is of this city. User experience may vary according to location.

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A recently listed IPO (Sep 21). Promoter did OFS at X alongwith fresh issue. Made record for highest subscription ever. Company currently at more than 5X of OFS price.

Let's glance a bit on Financials.
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Mcap - 3500 cr
Company does about 150 cr revenue. And about 15-20 cr in profits.

I am at a loss of words on valuations.

Maybe market is smart, promoters dumb and value investors like me dumber 🙂

My exp of almost 3 decades in the market tells me, this will end badly.
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When a consumer company advertises only on biz channels and not on GEC and mainstream channels, you should be alert about the management's intentions.

#investing

Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.

Government has helped the industry by various incentives like export subsidy, ethanol blending, allowing cane juice to ethanol conversion, msp, etc. UP and Maharashtra are the 2 major states in sugarcane plantations.

The 2 largest players in the world are Brazil and India. In Brazil sugarcane is used for ethanol a lot lot more than in India. Brazil is way ahead of any country in ethanol from cane.

US is the largest producer of ethanol in the world followed by Brazil. US uses mainly corn for making ethanol.

Indian sugar scenario: Sugar still constitutes 85% of revenue in sugar companies. So, essentially it has to do well for sugar companies to be profitable. We have had record production in last couple of years. Sugar opening stock at end of last sugar year was 14.5 mt.

There is no doubt that many new age businesses will do fantastically well for quiet a while.

But, will they turn out to be good stocks, is up for debate.

One needs to see how much of the growth has already been built up in the current price.

Risk-reward 🤔

Accidents happens when one doesn't look at valuations.

A supposedly platform stock listed in 2019. OFS price was 320 Rs. High of 6396 made yesterday.

Mcap crossed 1 lac crore.

Company was affected by CoVid so will talk a bit on pre-CoVid nos.

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Sales of 2300 cr in FY20. NP 730 cr. Company has a monopoly given by the govt. Business is good and many extensions taking place, which will take time to bear fruit, if at all. But valuation-wise it had gone bonkers.

2/3

Stock corrected 40%+ in 2 days. This is what can happen when one doesn't heed valuations. And ignores the risks to the business. And only looks at blue sky scenario.

A good company may not be a good investment, at any price.

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WTO e-commerce #digitaltrade consolidated draft leaked by @bilaterals_org Some interesting things (1/n)

(2/n) Intermediary liability is included without brackets, normally meaning there is some agreement. The text is based on US proposals but has more extensive caveats and exceptions than existing US trade deals

(3/n) No agreement on cross-border data flows at WTO #digitaltrade consolidated text

(4/n) FWIW The UK's (and US) position on WTO #digitaltrade exceptions to the liberalisation of cross-border data flows vs the EU's. Guess which one is which

(5/n) Financial data may be included in the ban on forced localisation of computing facilities, but with many caveats. US regulators had pushed against this in the past but they seem to be losing the battle. Several alt texts. UK to bring more proposals.

Sarad Pawar was a director in a shell company, which have done transaction of 7 Lakh crore in cash in UK.
Company Name was SGFX FINANCIALS CO UK LIMITED. (What could be full Name of SG? Any Guess?)
Thread

According to the UK company filing database, Mr Pawar was appointed as board member of SGFX Financials Co on 13 December 2010 and left the company on 5 January 2011. The filing also notes Mr Pawar's occupation as Minister, Government of India.

This company was incorporated on 13 December 2010 and dissolved on 27 November 2012. Nature of business was ‘Other business activities’!

There were two more directors when company was incorporated
1 is Mr Sarvesh Narendra Gade and 2nd is Mrs Shahanaz Ashraf Bharde

But when this details came out in 2015, Sarad Pawar has filed a case against this couple for using his name without his knowledge! Like really?
Please see below document, which have clearly mentioned that it was authenticated!

There’s rumour about confidential negotiations btn the Biden admin and the German gov. Their goal: to find a way out of the mess in which the whole transatlantic community finds itself because of Merkel’s support for Putin’s pipeline—Nord Stream 2

2/ The preferred solution for the Biden team would be to deny Putin the ability to exercise energy blackmail against Central Europe and Ukraine, while at the same time foregoing sanctions against Germany.

3/ Early in his career, Biden’s Secretary of State Anthony @SecBlinken had analyzed the decision of the Reagan administration not to levy sanctions against West Europeans for building the Siberian pipeline with the Soviets.

4/ See for example:

5/ Reagan decided to take a step back, calculating that the unity of the West was more important than the gas pipeline. Not even Lady Thatcher supported Reagan’s policy.

@ReformedTrader That is a long post, but well written. Real estate is a claim on the future prosperity or ruin of a geographical location. Real estate intrinsic values is its ability to generate cash or similar costs to rent in that area. Intrinsic value is above zero in most cases.

Ironically enough, the location that benefits most from property ownership are places where rising living costs expand faster than rising middle income wages. Deflationary areas are hostile to property ownership as price is falling make collateral and borrowing difficult.

Homes are bought using leverage with agencies loan subsidies by the governments. As long as you have fixed rates, the costs of living expenses for your housing is set for 30 or 15 years which allow family to budget. Wealth can be accumulate over time as asset and income risen.

Time passed, real estate become detach from intrinsic values. Monthly mortgage rocket pass incomes and growth in the area. Quick money into real estate turn into a landmine. The 2007 fiasco could have been better or worst, but the free market is effectively dead as an ideology.

At the time, investors attack the institutional that vulnerable to the MBS and structured derivatives linked to real estate bubble risks. Since many financial institution owned the agencies MBS, defaulting on these security means downward spiral for M1 and M2 in developed nations

The freelancing blueprint 🧵👇

Disclaimer:

Freelancing is NOT for everybody, but it is for everyone 😎

Just give freelancing an honest attempt for a year.

If you enjoy it - cool.

If you don't - cool.

At least you tried.

Freelancing starts with a SKILL.

1. Learn how to make a website (Web Design).
2. Learn how to get sales for a business (Digital Marketing).
3. Learn Web Design and Digital Marketing.

I'd recommend option 3.

You're offering a once-off and monthly service.

Win-win.

Where do you learn this skill?

YouTube, Google and Udemy.

Don't overcomplicate it.

How do you make money from this skill?

Marketing and Branding.

This will help you get clients.