A thread on my experience and observations of the grocery delivery apps in India.

@Grofers @bigbasket_com @JioMart @flipkart supermart, @amazonIN and DMart Ready.

Live in Pune. So my experience is of this city. User experience may vary according to location.

1/11

There is no doubt that many new age businesses will do fantastically well for quiet a while.

But, will they turn out to be good stocks, is up for debate.

One needs to see how much of the growth has already been built up in the current price.

Risk-reward 🤔

Accidents happens when one doesn't look at valuations.

A supposedly platform stock listed in 2019. OFS price was 320 Rs. High of 6396 made yesterday.

Mcap crossed 1 lac crore.

Company was affected by CoVid so will talk a bit on pre-CoVid nos.

1/3

Sales of 2300 cr in FY20. NP 730 cr. Company has a monopoly given by the govt. Business is good and many extensions taking place, which will take time to bear fruit, if at all. But valuation-wise it had gone bonkers.

2/3

Stock corrected 40%+ in 2 days. This is what can happen when one doesn't heed valuations. And ignores the risks to the business. And only looks at blue sky scenario.

A good company may not be a good investment, at any price.

3/3

When a consumer company advertises only on biz channels and not on GEC and mainstream channels, you should be alert about the management's intentions.

#investing

the product manager is responsible for the product's success...

simple. But....wait....

1/n There are many $ successful products that are terrible for humans (both inside/outside a company). Is that success?

2/n Conversely, what about "great products" that end up being "not successful" ?

Did the product manager do their job? Where does their role begin and end?

3/n Success over the lifespan of the product? next quarter? until they leave? while company exists?

There are many ways that short term success can come at the expense of mid/long term impact

4/n Success can mean very different things depending on the stage of the company, and the maturity of the product.

In an early startup, company/product are inexorably linked. In a more established company "the product" may be one of a dozen bets, most which will fail.

5/n What if a company has very low product aspirations?

What if it doesn't believe that their products can be a source of differentiated, sustainable mid/long term growth?

Is the role responsible for success *insofar as success is defined*? Something else? Who decides/defines?

There is a lot of bad advice floating around online when it comes to real estate investing.

Time for a stiff drink and some stuff you might not want to hear.

A thread 👇

Most real estate influencers spend 99% of their time trying to sound smart.

They purposely make things too complicated.

When you do this for a while you can tell if a property is worth buying with a napkin and 30 seconds.

The problem with being a big real estate PE firm:

You need to do good deals year after year and deploy 10s or 100s of millions in capital.

It’s a hamster wheel making others wealthy.

The advantage of being you:

One building like this can change your life.

Buying real estate that doesn’t cashflow well because values have risen 10% / yr for 10 yrs while wages have risen 3% / yr for 10 yrs is very risky.

I don’t care how long your interest rate is “fixed” for.

Markets are cyclical. Trends change. Bankruptcy is real.

If you don’t know anyone with money and you have less than $250k of your own cash real estate isn’t the best way to make money.

Even a $500k property (like the one pictured above) requires $150k down and another $100k in cash reserves.

Below are some of the most interesting business stories I came across in 2020.

P. S The list is not exhaustive.

1) PSG unbundled it's 28.1% ownership of Capitec.

2) MTN sold a minority stake in Jumia Technologies for R2.3-billion.

3) Dischem has completed the acquisition of Medicare Health for R282million

4) TFG bought 381 Jet stores from Edcon for R480m.

5) Capitec entered into a partnership with SA Home Loans to offer home loans.

6) Food Lover’s Market has started closing outlets in Zambia.

7) Sasol sold 50% of the "base chemicals division" at Lake Charles which equates to ~25% of total Lake Charles project. Sasol will still retain around ~75% of the total Lake Charles Chemical Project.

8) Sasol agreed to sell its 50% stake in Gemini for R6.2bn.

9) Tongaat Hulett sold its starch and glucose business to Barloworld for R5.26bn. The group has used R4.64bn of this to pay down debt.

10) The Competition Commission approved Nimble Fund 1’s intention to acquire Edcon Book Debts.

11) Greg Maloka has decided to resign from Kaya.

12) Ethos Private Equity has won a contract with Ninety One to take on an advisory contract for Ninety One's Africa Private Equity funds.

Ninety One will maintain control and oversight of the portfolio, while Ethos will manage the assets

13) Bidvest Wits sold to TTM

Big congrats to @nonfungibles on releasing their 2020 Annual Non-Fungible Tokens Report! @NathalieBcht, @latelier & I thoroughly enjoyed partnering with them on it: https://t.co/uNvX18GcQV.
Some key takeaways from the report & my personal observations a/t #NFTs. A long-ish 🧵👇:

MARKET SIZE: The NFT market had a historic 2020 - tripled in value, reaching $250m (in terms of value of all #Ethereum transactions on chain, so actual market size is even bigger). This is rapid growth for a space that’s just a few years old.

Market is still volatile & prone to speculation but more sophisticated use cases are emerging based on utility, community, competitive elements. All are prerequisites for a more mature market. For all the hype around crypto, it is #NFTs that offer some of the more promising uses.

USERS: # of users transacting NFTs is up. So is interest in NFTs more broadly - using Twitter activity as a proxy, the uptick in interest is clear & rose 5x in Nov 2017- Sept 2020 (similar trajectory for #DeFi btw). BUT it's important to remember this is still a niche ecosystem.

PROFIT: Some NFT #Traders are commanding profits in the 100s of thousands. Again, this is still a niche activity. There are high barriers to entry (incl. technological) for non-crypto enthusiasts + asset prices are going up very fast. It's still hard to price and value NFTs.

General Warning: don’t work for or hire @IanMmmm - he’s a zero-integrity-self-serving manipulator. He destroyed an entire org at AWS.

He’s the reason I left @awscloud. He’s not just incompetent, he’s dishonest in the extreme. You’re throwing away your career working with him.

Also, pro-tip: record every call you have with a manager that you suspect is lying to you.

Here's what happened: I lost my shit when I didn't get promoted, because I was a child. That's on me. I had worked my ass off for 3 years and Ian said that if I moved to Seattle and signed a non-compete then I would get my promotion. I did those things - I didn't get promoted.

What does losing my shit mean? I sent a message to Ian and others that said "Fuck you, I'm not moving to the depressive hell hole that is Seattle. I'm not signing a non-compete. I'm going to stop working 100 hours a week for a company that doesn't give a shit about me."

Later, I found out that Ian had never actually reached out to anyone about my promo document. He just lied. He just ignored it until the last second because he was too focused on taking credit for my work for his own promo document. He got promoted.