Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
We have to understand that sugar story depends on government help a lot. It does remain a political commodity.
1)High production next year
2)Current year production above the industry expectation of 26 mt (for UP one can get data as most are listed, but for Mah it is difficult as there are many private players and co-operatives)
4)Crude falls, to let’s say, 40-50$. The whole ethanol story becomes very difficult. Brazil also starts diverting cane to sugar instead of ethanol
More from Jiten Parmar
Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) February 25, 2020
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
Anjani - 100
Deccan Cem - 40
KCP - 44 (will be lower if value to other biz given)
NCL - 61 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 59
EV/tonne of the companies in that region.
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) July 8, 2020
Anjani Portland - 42
Deccan Cem - 20
KCP - conglomerate (has Vietnam sugar, hotel, engg too) - 43 (on mcap)
NCL - 31 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 47
No recommendations. Just data.
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1500 Cr liter ethanol x Rs 60 = 90000 Cr revenue expectation per year.
Still they say it's a noise!
Sweet sugar. Many still hate commodities. Lesson: never be rigid in investment. https://t.co/lSr2CpeMMn
— Varinder Bansal \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3 (@varinder_bansal) June 28, 2021
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