1/ Why Silicon Valley Doesn't Get Bitcoin

Over the last 12 years of it’s existence, Bitcoin has been misunderstood by Silicon Valley which has led to many cringe worthy moments as they’ve endorsed silly ideas and even worse, scams.

1/ Fear and Bitcoin.

Whenever Bitcoin has a bull run, naysayers try to cope with missing the boat by rationalizing why it will fail through “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt” or what we Bitcoiners have nicknamed “FUD.”

1/ The Price of Bitcoin

- Why price is entirely what matters
- How the price helps build Bitcoin

A thread👇

2/ Marketing viral loop

“A viral loop is a mechanism that drives continuous referrals for continuous growth.

It’s how you drive your existing customers to refer others to your brand, and in turn, get those new customers to tell even more people about you." - @ReferralRock

3/ Most of us heard about Bitcoin in 2013, 2017, when friends and family were talking about the rapid price increase. It’s through this viral loop that Bitcoin grows in adoption.

4/ The price is that signal to folks that Bitcoin is interesting, solves a problem, and that others are recognizing it as a new money. If Bitcoin’s price had stayed at $100 none of us would be here. While there is volatility, we keep seeing higher lows = long term trend upwards.

5/ Satoshi built a viral loop into Bitcoin.

“As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.” - Satoshi

1/ The Rebellion Begins

What happened with Robinhood and GameStop represents a rebellion against institutions, banks, and governments.

This is Bitcoin's moment.

A thread👇

1/ Don’t Fear Tether

Whenever Bitcoin has a bull run, naysayers try to cope with missing the boat by rationalizing why it will fail through FUD. Most of these are completely unsubstantiated, but annoyingly persist as negative narratives Bitcoin must fight against.

1/ The #Bitcoin bear case has two two components:

The macro, and the miners.

THREAD 👇

2/ On the macro side, if the dollar reverses its major downtrend and/or real rates turn positive, that will hurt $BTC considerably.

I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.

3/ On the miners side, one has to consider the miners' cycle.

It works like this 👇

4/ Miners' hashrate (the aggregated bitcoin computing capacity) is directly tied to mining difficulty, which is the main variable in the bitcoin cost of production

=> the more capacity installed, the higher the difficulty, and the higher the cost.

5/ In a bull-run, miners' hashrate lags price, so as price takes off and moves higher, miners' profitability explodes (as price goes up but production costs don't as much).

These are the happy times.

#Bitcoin weekly RSI is at the same level as it was during the March'20 crash.

Two possibilities:

1) Reversal
2) Crash to test the lower bound of the channel or even lower, as most of the crashes are preceded by oversold readings.

As of now, 2 has a higher probability.

1/ @Square buys $50M of #Bitcoin w/ its balance sheet 🚀

let's untangle what corporate treasurers do and why this matters...

the role of corp treasurer didn’t exist until the 1970s, when co's faced high inflation and financial uncertainty

2/ in this environment, companies with no cash management or treasury strategy were losing 10-12% / yr to inflation

modern corporate treasury is typically focused on cash management and managing the opportunity cost of capital

holding cash is *not* a strategy

3/ when i worked in corp treasury, we mostly traded the overnight and short term rate markets

we could earn a nice 3-5% return in these very low-risk assets w/ time preference

treasurers today are living in a radically different world!

RATES ARE 0

TARGET INFLATION IS >2%

4/ faced with this new reality, corporate treasurers (and all investors) are looking at alternatives

#Bitcoin is a highly liquid asset that trades 24/7 in an increasingly regulated and structured global market - and its an effective portfolio diversifier!

5/ Square’s willingness to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet as a treasury asset speaks to:

(1) the changing landscape that treasurers must navigate, and;
(2) their ability to manage the operational, risk, and compliance requirements of holding bitcoin directly