#Bitcoin weekly RSI is at the same level as it was during the March'20 crash.

Two possibilities:

1) Reversal
2) Crash to test the lower bound of the channel or even lower, as most of the crashes are preceded by oversold readings.

As of now, 2 has a higher probability.

More from Mayank Narula

#Nifty

So now that Nifty has undergone ABC correction in the expected manner, what to expect next?

I think we have started larger degree wave 3, once 16800 was crossed.

16800 is the reference level now. We will get more sense by end of next week/ month. https://t.co/KsziuUpZxU


#NIFTY

If 17445 is taken out, then may be we are heading to fresh new all time on Nifty.

Things may pan out way faster than expected.


#NIFTY

Zoomed in cross-section of the chart above.

Wave 3 of 1 should have started today, which can take Nifty to fresh all time highs.


#NIFTY

So now Nifty is moving more clearly on the expected path, what's next?

Nifty has started longer term wave 3 advancement, pending final confirmation of HH by crossing 17800.

In Wave 1 of 3, can expect a move to 20k+.


In terms of longer term wave structure:

Wave 1: 7500 to 18600
Wave 3: 15700 to 35000+

And this can pan out over next 2 years or so.

Since wave 2 was a shallow correction, wave 4 can potentially be a deeper correction.
I did this comparison between Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi back in Oct when Tata Elxsi was at 1200-1300. Now it is 4200+.

Here is one more stock displaying similar characteristics: Mayur Uniquoters.


#MayurUniq

Coming out of 7 years consolidation.

Weekly and monthly RSI crossing over 70.

Can it do what Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi did in last 1 year?


#MayurUniq

Monthly RSI crossed over 70 in Sep'09 and stayed till Sep'11.

Stock did 5x in that time.

More from Bitcoin

Agree mate. Well done @ttmygh @profplum99 and @nic__carter on a ripping show. Im obviously in the "gold is superior" camp, though I am long #BTC (tiny position). I thought the best/most interesting point of whole debate was raised by @profplum99 regarding the fact that a 1/n


#Bitcoin transaction is never really final, given the energy required to keep the network running, and obviously its scale issues will only grow over time. That said, I actually though @nic__carter "won" the debate as it were, and I was unconvinced by the threat to national 2/n

security or undermining Fed policy angles Mike put forward. Two areas that are super interesting to me. One is the issue of #Bitcoin ownership, and how concentrated it is in terms of a small % of addresses that own most of it (2% addresses > 95% of holdings I think). 3/n

made great point a lot of this is omnibus/exchange related - so exchange or fund - ie @Grayscale holds #bitcoin for multiple investors. That may well be true - but it brings up 2 other issues. One - it proves that #bitcoin doesn't really "work" without 4/n

centralisation - as this implies most people need exchanges or funds (or @Paypal) to buy it. If so, that kills off a major "bitcoin is better than gold argument" - as in reality, gold is way more decentralised (from mine supply to ownership distribution). It also brings up a 5/n

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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.