BC BITCOIN
Saved by @ThomassRichards

1/ The #Bitcoin bear case has two two components:

The macro, and the miners.

THREAD 👇

 2/ On the macro side, if the dollar reverses its major downtrend and/or real rates turn positive, that will hurt $BTC considerably.

I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.
3/ On the miners side, one has to consider the miners' cycle.

It works like this 👇
4/ Miners' hashrate (the aggregated bitcoin computing capacity) is directly tied to mining difficulty, which is the main variable in the bitcoin cost of production

=> the more capacity installed, the higher the difficulty, and the higher the cost.
5/ In a bull-run, miners' hashrate lags price, so as price takes off and moves higher, miners' profitability explodes (as price goes up but production costs don't as much).

These are the happy times.
6/ Higher profitability drives miners to increase capacity, and attracts new miners.
7/ Around major tops you will see people who don't understand bitcoin pull online calculators --which ignore other costs such as cooling, pool fees, warehousing, security, and personnel-- and imagine they are going to become wealthy mining bitcoin. Then go buy overpriced miners.
8/ It's important to understand that Bitcoin mining presents a perfect Prisoner's Dilemma.

Here's an old thread on that topic. Mind that the bitcoin produced a month is now 27,375, or about 900 a day. This quantity halved in May.

https://t.co/PPPtXM6hOB
9/ Higher profitability drives increasing mining capacity, but this new capacity can take months to install.

That's why hashrate increases lag price increases.
10/ Currently, and due to chip shortages related to technological changes and covid supply chain disruptions, delays are in the order of 6-10 months.
11/ While miner profitability moons, miners are capable of hodling more: they can reduce sales to take advantage of rising prices in a bull market.

This adds to reflexivity and helps prices further up.
12/ Eventually hashrate catches up with price. Happy times end, and miners have to increase their selling volumes to pay the bills.
13/ There's another game theory component: if you are a miner and know that other miners will soon be forced to increase their selling volumes, you may want to sell before and front-run them to get better prices.
14/ This increase in selling can be augmented by prior hodling, resulting in a perfect storm.

Miners did hold inventories back late 2020, but their selling volumes have already increased in 2021, with price in the 30s-40s.
15/ Finally, consider that at current prices the dollar amount for new bitcoin produced is considerably larger than it was prior to the halving.

1800 bitcoin/day * $10,000 = $18,000,000/day

900 bitcoin/day * 35,000 = $31,500,000/day
I remain bullish, but it's important to keep the bear case in mind. Miner flows make sure price can't move in straight up lines for too long, and are the reason one should not be too bullish later in the year. At some point miner excesses must be rinsed out.
For those asking where to find miner data, there are three main sources:

@cryptoquant_com
@glassnode
@thetokenanalyst

All require a subscription unfortunately.

I mostly use CryptoQuant: https://t.co/AaOPJjxt7h

Their founder @ki_young_ju shares very useful data on Twitter.

More from Bitcoin

O\u20bfiWan
O₿iWan
@ObiWanKenoBit
0/Why HODL?

Bitcoin is a proxy for the struggle for human dignity. It is a peaceful revolution seeking to displace the anomaly of false monies. The world stands at the cusp of social and political upheaval. Though many look to politics, money’s fate will determine our future.

1/HODLers voluntarily participate in the reformation of money. This is a multi-generational effort to secure & ensure a future sans fiat. HODL forms the basis of a simple ideological framework entirely forward looking. It abandons past constructs & releases one from the present.

2/HODLers sacrifice present needs for future rewards. Not just monetary riches, but the gift of an economy free of fiat’s false prosperity. Bitcoin succeeds where fiat fails. Savings is rejoiced, opportunity is available for all.

3/Our civilization is engaged in an epic conflict this time centered around money. Greater than any physical battle in history, fiat’s war on the public seeks deep authoritarian control over every aspect of life. You will work, live, love at their mercy, upon their whims.

4/Historically conflict existed at physical borders between tribes and nations. Members forged ideological bonds allowing them to selflessly coordinate, overcome threats and establish regional security.
BITCOIN
Alex
Alex
@classicmacro
$BTC views

Price needs to let volatility wear off before its next big move. Thinking 30K-40K range for the next 1-2 weeks. Then either 50K straight or after piercing 30K and bouncing back above 30K within 1-2 days.


$27500-$27000 is the key area. If price heads back down to 30K, expect 30K to be breached, fall to that area, and bounce back. FAST. All very fast.


What do I do with this information?

Simple.

I'm trading the range against a core position. Buying when price pushes lower, selling when higher. It's like playing the achordeon. There's always air left inside.

Where exactly?

Nowhere.

I don't use limits for that. $BTC is liquid enough to trade at market without issues.

I'm watching PA, volume and rates for buying and euphoria as reflected in rates for reducing.

Decision making is dynamic. Nothing is set in stone. But most likely if price heads back down to 30K 'll be holding off next time. The gameplan is to have ammo to buy the dip (to redeploy). If 30K breaks absolutely no buying until down to 27Ks or back above 30K.
BITCOIN
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Harsh / \ud5c8\uc26c
Harsh / 허쉬
@_Harsh_Mehta_
#Bitcoin #BTC - Break of lower channel support at around 16500-17000 shall take it to 1750-1800

Massive price erosion in cryptos a very likely outcome. This shall spill over to equities as well but not to same extent.
BITCOIN
satoshi0x
satoshi0x
@MasterGrimaldi
The is no Devcoin Gold yet. But then again, we've never been one to "peg" to anything. I came across an interesting article about 'recreating' addresses with Bgold that @bitcoincoreorg cut out since 0.13.0 - perhaps one day we can do a similar thing in future Devcoin software :)


https://t.co/cv4UqsaVAK

That being said I hold some Doge @blockio in an "A-" address myself after 0. 1. "9-" versions :). Don't believe Bitcoin Core the Coin (Utility) is the only visible value on Core chain. Color me crazy. I believe in script. And FOSS that is used to export📜


And that's just a guy @MeniRosenfeld who put his identity and ideas out in the public to build a Web of Trust back when the web was much less of a safe place. His identity at stake and the implementation of a branch in source code by another unsung hero @killerstorm reveals value

Some of those who set up our bright future quietly implemented it in a branch on the main source code before it was officially the Bitcoin Core main repository, before a "Bitcoin Core" entity existed

Just because Bitcoin Core nodes dominate and do not read "smart" colored satoshis or display them, doesn't mean they do not exist on chain. The example of recreating P2WSH-over-P2SH address from BTC https://t.co/ZWSP2MO5bY wallets in Bitcoin Core Gold I shared proves -rescan's $
BITCOIN
Dan Held
Dan Held
@danheld
1/ Satoshi’s Vision™ is a silly endeavor, as it doesn’t matter what it was, we are where we are now. However, those pushing the “Bitcoin was first made for payments” narrative insist on cherry-picking sentences from the white paper and forum posts to champion their perspective.

2/ The following tweetstorm is a categorical repudiation of this tired narrative. Bitcoin was purpose-built to first be a Store of Value (SoV), a thread:

3/ How do we determine Satoshi’s intention? We need to look at his ideology, description of functionality/architecture, timing, and audience. Let's start with how Satoshi describes the problem Bitcoin solves. In his first public comms after the whitepaper, in the first paragraph:

4/ “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi

5/ He later expands on that Libertarian thought in his other writings:

“[with Bitcoin] we can win a major battle in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years.” — Satoshi Nakamoto
BITCOIN

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महर्षि कश्यप की तेरह पत्नियां थीं।लेकिन विनता व कद्रु नामक अपनी दो पत्नियों से उन्हे विशेष लगाव था।एक दिन महर्षि आनन्दभाव में बैठे थे कि तभी वे दोनों उनके समीप आकर उनके पैर दबाने लगी।


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1⃣

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2⃣

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4⃣

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SRI CHAMPAKADHAMA SWAMY, BANNERGHATTA HILL, BENGALURU (KAR)
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