BC BITCOIN
Saved by @ThomassRichards

1/ The #Bitcoin bear case has two two components:

The macro, and the miners.

THREAD 👇

 2/ On the macro side, if the dollar reverses its major downtrend and/or real rates turn positive, that will hurt $BTC considerably.

I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.
3/ On the miners side, one has to consider the miners' cycle.

It works like this 👇
4/ Miners' hashrate (the aggregated bitcoin computing capacity) is directly tied to mining difficulty, which is the main variable in the bitcoin cost of production

=> the more capacity installed, the higher the difficulty, and the higher the cost.
5/ In a bull-run, miners' hashrate lags price, so as price takes off and moves higher, miners' profitability explodes (as price goes up but production costs don't as much).

These are the happy times.
6/ Higher profitability drives miners to increase capacity, and attracts new miners.
7/ Around major tops you will see people who don't understand bitcoin pull online calculators --which ignore other costs such as cooling, pool fees, warehousing, security, and personnel-- and imagine they are going to become wealthy mining bitcoin. Then go buy overpriced miners.
8/ It's important to understand that Bitcoin mining presents a perfect Prisoner's Dilemma.

Here's an old thread on that topic. Mind that the bitcoin produced a month is now 27,375, or about 900 a day. This quantity halved in May.

https://t.co/PPPtXM6hOB
9/ Higher profitability drives increasing mining capacity, but this new capacity can take months to install.

That's why hashrate increases lag price increases.
10/ Currently, and due to chip shortages related to technological changes and covid supply chain disruptions, delays are in the order of 6-10 months.
11/ While miner profitability moons, miners are capable of hodling more: they can reduce sales to take advantage of rising prices in a bull market.

This adds to reflexivity and helps prices further up.
12/ Eventually hashrate catches up with price. Happy times end, and miners have to increase their selling volumes to pay the bills.
13/ There's another game theory component: if you are a miner and know that other miners will soon be forced to increase their selling volumes, you may want to sell before and front-run them to get better prices.
14/ This increase in selling can be augmented by prior hodling, resulting in a perfect storm.

Miners did hold inventories back late 2020, but their selling volumes have already increased in 2021, with price in the 30s-40s.
15/ Finally, consider that at current prices the dollar amount for new bitcoin produced is considerably larger than it was prior to the halving.

1800 bitcoin/day * $10,000 = $18,000,000/day

900 bitcoin/day * 35,000 = $31,500,000/day
I remain bullish, but it's important to keep the bear case in mind. Miner flows make sure price can't move in straight up lines for too long, and are the reason one should not be too bullish later in the year. At some point miner excesses must be rinsed out.
For those asking where to find miner data, there are three main sources:

@cryptoquant_com
@glassnode
@thetokenanalyst

All require a subscription unfortunately.

I mostly use CryptoQuant: https://t.co/AaOPJjxt7h

Their founder @ki_young_ju shares very useful data on Twitter.

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1/ Satoshi’s Vision™ is a silly endeavor, as it doesn’t matter what it was, we are where we are now. However, those pushing the “Bitcoin was first made for payments” narrative insist on cherry-picking sentences from the white paper and forum posts to champion their perspective.

2/ The following tweetstorm is a categorical repudiation of this tired narrative. Bitcoin was purpose-built to first be a Store of Value (SoV), a thread:

3/ How do we determine Satoshi’s intention? We need to look at his ideology, description of functionality/architecture, timing, and audience. Let's start with how Satoshi describes the problem Bitcoin solves. In his first public comms after the whitepaper, in the first paragraph:

4/ “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi

5/ He later expands on that Libertarian thought in his other writings:

“[with Bitcoin] we can win a major battle in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years.” — Satoshi Nakamoto
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kain.eth
kain.eth
@kaiynne
For those who were trading in 2017 or earlier bull markets this may be obvious, but these kinds of corrections are typically driven by overleveraged longs, not whales dumping on you. That hasn’t started yet. Let me break down why it happens and why it is worse on the weekends.

I should probably have data to back this up, but I haven’t kept up to date with the latest trading data so much of this is based on intuition and experience trading through 2016-2018. If you have data that invalidates this please provide it, happy to be wrong here!

Firstly in an early bull market you have some OG holders taking profit around previous ATH, they have “learned their lesson” and are trying to not get rekt like last time. Once they finish taking some profits or hedging they are riding this up to multiples of previous ATH.

For example I sold around 5-10% of my ETH into stables between $500-$1200, over $1,200 you would need to claw it out of my cold dead hands before we hit $3k. If we don’t get there this cycle (we will) then I will just keep holding. I know a lot of people who did the same.

The problem with this is that the new money coming in and pushing the price up is highly leveraged, and the people with the most conviction are mainly holding and so while they might buy some dips they probably don’t have the dry powder to soak up huge liquidated positions.
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Afternoon all,

I wanted to take some time to cover some resources I use in my daily $BTC trading. This will be a longer thread, so bear with it you will hopefully find something that will help you also. I will try to keep it concise so if there are any questions please DM me.

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balajis.com
balajis.com
@balajis
The defi matrix

As each asset class goes on-chain, it can be stored in a digital wallet. And it can be traded against other such assets. Not just cryptocurrencies, but national digital currencies, personal tokens, etc.

We’re about to enter an age of global monetary competition.

The defi matrix is the table of all pair wise trades. It’s the fiat/stablecoin pairs, the fiat/crypto pairs, the crypto/crypto pairs, and much more besides.

Uniswap-style automatic market making for everything. Every possession you have, constantly marked to market by ~2040.

More liquidity, less currency?

This is an interesting point. Cash doesn’t make you money. In fact, it can lose you money in an inflating environment.

Reliable, 24/7 mark-to-market on everything is hard — but if achieved, means less % of assets in cash.


AMMs boost BTC. Here's why.

- All assets trade against all assets in the defi matrix
- Automated market makers give liquidity for rare pairs
- Everything is marked-to-market 24/7
- Value of cash drops, as you can liquidate instantly
- The new no-op is to keep your assets in BTC

Basically, automated market makers like @Uniswap boost BTC in the long term, because they allow *everything* to be priced in BTC terms, and *anyone* to switch out of BTC into their asset of choice.

Though in practice this may mean WBTC/RenBTC [or ETH!] rather than BTC itself.
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Lucas Nuzzi
Lucas Nuzzi
@LucasNuzzi
1\ There is an alarming amount of misinformation (fueled by the media) on what exactly happened to Bitcoin yesterday, and whether funds were "double spent"

Here's everything you need to know 👇

2\ On the 18th, a user broadcast a transaction with very low fees.

When users underpay fees, their transactions gets stuck because miners have more profitable opportunities.

Users are left with 2 options:

a) wait until fee levels drop
b) tell miners they will increase fees

3\ The most popular way to (b) increase fees of an already-broadcast transaction is through a "Replace By Fee (RBF)" transaction.

Put simply, RBF is a copy-and-paste of the original transaction with higher fees and an explicit instruction to favor the new transaction instead.

4\ Nearly a day passed after our infamous user broadcast the original transaction and miners did not include it.

So the user decided to issue an RBF on the 19th with higher fees... but not high enough!

And the transaction was again stuck...

5\ A couple of hours later, the user decided to bump fees up again via a second RBF!

This time around the user paid enough fees.
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