CodyyyGardner Categories Brexit

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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
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European Unity #FBPE \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f4b6\u2b50\ufe0f
European Unity #FBPE 🇪...
@EuropeanUnity1
#Brexitadventcalendar

31 liars & hypocrites who facilitated brexit

Some are mad, some are bad

All are millionaires, some are billionaires

They’ll profit from UK companies failing, keep their money abroad to avoid UK tax and travel freely with their EU passports

#RejoinEU


https://t.co/mZRr9u1RPb


https://t.co/BY6hKloR9d


https://t.co/NdC0ltLeSM


https://t.co/BLnRLotso7
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them

2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc

3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise

4 - Brexiteers show even the vaguest hint of interest in the views of those who continue to want strong ties with the EU, rather then repeating over and over again, to even the vaguest hint of criticism, "you lost suckers, get over it"

5 - Remainers, rejoiners and the like stop talking quite so much about how the 2016 referendum was stolen from them, which is becoming both history and suggests that 17 odd million people were conned

(NB not confident on the last two)
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Dr Matt Prescott
Dr Matt Prescott
@mattprescott
WHAT'S MOST SUSPICIOUS ABOUT BREXIT? A tough competition... but here's my initial list... the two LEAVE CAMPAIGNS (see ÂŁÂŁÂŁs from RUSSIAN DONORS + ISLE OF MAN), everything to do with VOTE LEAVE, everything to do with LEAVE EU, everything to do with CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA / SCL...

... The way so many leading REMAINERS have since become LEAVERS or accepted PEERAGES (see the HOUSE OF LORDS, RUSSIA REPORT), the way David CAMERON quit, the way Nick CLEGG went from leading the LIB DEMS to working for FACEBOOK (WTF???), George OSBORNE working for Evgeny LEBEDEV.

... the lack of criticism of BREXIT on the BBC (see manipulation by omission, PROPAGANDA, DISINFORMATION and MISINFORMATION), the lack of EXPERTS on the BBC, the super-abundance of Nigel FARAGE on the BBC (see QUESTION TIME)...

... the daily PROPAGANDA from our TABLOID PRESS and traditionally BROADSHEET NEWSPAPER... the mainstreaming of DUMBING DOWN across all media and formats...

... setting up of short-lived but potentially important CROSS-PARTY COALITIONS...
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VIADUCT
VIADUCT
@viaduct_eu
As we continue to recap our work for the #VIADUCT_EU project over the years, take a look below at our thirteen VIADUCT Newsletters!

These are where we kept our network and you up to date of all our activities

/THREAD


Our first newsletter kicked off the #VIADUCT_EU project with an editorial from our project leaders @FundaTekin17 of @IEP_Berlin and Wolfgang Wessels of @UniCologne

➡️

In this early newsletter, @tomas_weiss wrote a fascinating piece on relations between the EU and Turkey after PESCO

➡️

Check out Meltem Mßftßler Baç's editorial here on the future of the EU-Turkey partnership in the early days of the #VIADUCT_EU project

➡️

"Arranging EU-Turkey cooperation in the era of transactional leadership" was the title of the @FIIA_fi Senior Research Fellow @ToniAlaranta's editorial in this #VIADUCT_EU Newsletter

➡️
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ScottishPanda
ScottishPanda
@PandaScottish
[thread] I would be able to move on from brexit if......

We had been told the UK holds some cards and not all of them

That it would be a difficult deal and not the easiest deal in history

That we would have liabilities to pay and these would be a substantial amount and that they are not zero and they do not buy us a trade deal

That we do not have "many solutions" to the NI border and that at the last having exhausted drones, blimps, random country examples that don't solve it and oh yes unspecified technology instead a border in the Irish Sea that no unionist can support is the answer
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Rem Korteweg
Rem Korteweg
@remkorteweg
On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2

FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3

They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4

It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Been waiting for 👇 🚨

Important story on what a “tariff-free” deal means in practice and why it’s not enough for two economies as closely integrated.

Tariffs are removed on goods that meet rules of origin. This is a complex and nuanced area of customs.

/1


Important to remember that trade deals (FTAs) weren't designed with such a high degree of economic integration in mind.

So some of the standard RoO provisions will seem incredibly restrictive under the UK-EU deal.

/2

Minimal operations or insufficient processing is a standard part of an FTA. Most, if not all FTAs, include a provision on minimal processing – processing not considered sufficient to confer originating status even if rules of origin have been met.

/3

It is standard procedure not to apply cumulation when goods have only been subject to minimal processing.

To be able to cumulate origin and consider the final product of UK origin, the processing carried out in the UK needs to exceed minimal operations.

/4

The level of integration between the UK and the EU means that this will have significant consequences for a number of industries.

For example, in supply chains where goods are brought into the UK from the EU and reassembled, sorted or repackaged and re-exported to ROI.

/5
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Paul Patrick
Paul Patrick
@PaulTyredagh81
1. #Belfast #IrishSeaBorder There is no doubt that Brexit & the accompanying Irish Sea Border has destabilised the Union. Whilst the constitutional status of Northern Ireland has not changed, the fact of N.I remaining in the single market of the EU confirms it is”a place apart”.

2. Belfast Steve Aitkin/UUP, Mervyn Gibson/OrangeOrder,Jim Allister/TUV, Jamie Bryson/Unionist Blogger, etc etc, all see the Irish Sea Border & different economic arrangements for NI apart from Britain as a “betrayal”. It comes in a long line of Tory”betrayals”.

3. #Belfast They are correct. The Irish Sea Border & EU single market moves N.Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland in terms of economic https://t.co/tdKZhjKhWu,it doesn’t change the constitutional status of NI but it is a huge psychological blow to a Unionism.

4. #Belfast The DUP utterly failed to “strengthen the Union”. Their attempt to hold the minority Tory Theresa May govt to ransom backfired spectacularly when Boris Johnson won a significant majority. Their arrogance led them to be isolated & resented in Westminster.

5. #Belfast How does Unionism now react to this?Retreat to the”Bunker”?Repeat the ineffective “Flag”street activism of the past? The Union can now only be saved imo by reaching out to the 5-10% swing vote that will decide a future Border Poll on Irish unification,& it is coming.
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Objective Columnist
Objective Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
A quote from this excellent piece, neatly summarising a core impact of Brexit.

The Commission’s view, according to several sources, is that Brexit means existing distribution networks and supply chains are now defunct and will have to be replaced by other systems.


Of course, this was never written on the side of a bus. And never acknowledged by government. Everything was meant to be broadly fine apart from the inevitable teething problems.

It was, however, visible from space to balanced observers. You did not have to be a trade specialist to understand that replacing the Single Market with a third country trade arrangement meant the end of many if not all of the complex arrangements optimised for the former.

In the absence of substantive mitigations, the Brexit winners are those who subscribe to some woolly notion of ‘sovereignty’ and those who did not like freedom of movement. The losers are everyone else.

But, of course, that’s not good enough. For understandable reasons Brexit was sold as a benefit not a cost. The trading benefits of freedom would far outweigh the costs. Divergence would benefit all.
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Best for Britain
Best for Britain
@BestForBritain
At today's Future Relationship with the European Union Committee - we're hearing from @CSBarnard24 that the deal has a slightly "alice in wonderland quality" about it - nothing really appears quite as it first looks. If you compare to what we had until 1 Jan, it falls short. 1/

For example, there's a statement that the dispute resolution mechanisms doesn’t apply, but if you plough on until the end you see that some chunks of the DSM are actually incorporated over non-regression provisions. @CSBarnard24 2/

From @SamuelMarcLowe: "the premise of this agreement [is] to remove tariffs & do v little to remove barriers to trade and services. If you’re prioritising the economic status quo and economic integration with Europe then of course this deal is going to disappoint you." 3/

"This deal is actually very unstable", says @CSBarnard24. "One of the problems is that this constant contestation of the deal creates quite a lot of difficulties for businesses." 4/

"If you’re a car manufacturer that wants to invest in a new plant, you don’t know whether tariffs are going to be imposed either because the deal is brought to an end or due to potential govt retaliation - this is the main concern of this deal." @CSBarnard24 5/
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Holger Hestermeyer
Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
It is time to talk Brexit and standards again. (thread)


Let's start off with: I don't think any trade experts are surprised by this. It is why the TCA did not do much on SPS. It is why the EU did not offer much on SPS. It is why the UK did not ask much on SPS.

But it also shows that the popular slogan "after Brexit we'll have the same standards as before, so why would anything change in trade" was wrong - and worse, it was purposefully trying to stifle a necessary debate.

And this leads me to the next point: I have no issue with changing the rules, I have a massive issue with how it is done. Here's what we should discuss:

The decisive question: What are the standards the UK as a country wants. To inform this debate, we need the following information:
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Steve Hyndside
Steve Hyndside
@SteveHyndside
I’m feeling really sad today thinking about what we’ve lost over the last 5 years. But this is mixed with proud knowledge I, and many around me, did all we could to avert this disaster unfolding. This is a short thread to give a shout out to some of them 1/


First up is @GreenPartyMolly - I’ve already rung her today to say this and more. But she was both astute and persuasive in her tireless work before and after the referendum. I remain proud to have worked for her and supported her.

Second up is @ewgjones - one of the few who threw himself into election mode before the referendum and saw the pragmatic need for a persuasive targeted GreenerIn campaign. Without him @SW_GreenerIN probably wouldn’t have happened (or certainly looked very different)

Third up is my former colleague @aw_bell who pivoted quicker than anyone I knew through the grief of 2016 to try & make the best of the awful situation post referendum. He metaphorically shook me awake when I kinda wanted to hide under a duvet (and I think he did this for many)

Fourth up is Joe Williams - friend who helped set up @Bristol4Europe (who really led the national response post referendum). He was a calculated head in a room who dared to think big when others were panicking.
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Se\xe1n Jones #ContinuityRemainiac
SeĂĄn Jones #Continuity...
@seanjonesqc
Brexit- Moving On:
Those who saw membership of the EU as being in UK’s best interests are told that they are going through the stages of grief. Eventually Brexit acceptance will come and we are told to hurry up about it (by "Spartans" who trumpet never surrendering) /1

But there is no need for grief. Brexit is not a permanent condition. States can apply for membership. Brexiters have a task: either delivering on their promises or persuading people to forget them. We have a task: creating the conditions for a successful application to join. /2

I want to be practical about this. What needs to be done?

1. We must advocate for membership within the UK.
2. We must help ensure that the UK meets the conditions for membership.
3. We must maintain good relations with the EU. /3

Advocacy: Good advocacy is founded on careful preparation and good information. We will need to be clear about the adverse impacts of Brexit as they occur. We will need to be clear about the developing benefits of membership (and honest about the EU’s difficulties) /4

We need to be where people will hear us: on social media, by providing expertise available for the traditional media and by lobbying politicians. We need to help amplify those speaking for us. Which bring us to a question; do we have the advocates we need? /5
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Which?
Which?
@WhichUK
Our experts have read through the 1,246 pages of the Brexit deal so you don't have to. Here are 13 things consumers need to know about the UK-EU deal ⬇️

1. You won't need a visa.

If you're travelling for up to 90 days in any 180 day period, you don't need to worry about getting a visa. This applies to any country in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland

2. To travel to the EU you will need at least six months of validity left on your passport.

And as far as your furry friends are concerned, the UK will no longer be part of the Pet Passport scheme. You'll need an Animal Health Certificate instead.

3. You should get yourself a Ghic (as well as travel insurance).

Similar to the Ehic, the Ghic is a UK government scheme. It will be available from 2021, but details are still being finalised. You can still use your Ehic card until it expires.

4. You'll still be entitled to compensation for flight delays. This rule only applies to flights on EU airlines or flights to or from EU airports. It’s possible that only passengers flying from the UK on EU airlines or from the EU to the UK will be covered.
BREXIT
Nick\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺...
@nicktolhurst
I see alot of friends here are getting angry at various Starmer comments on Brexit.
I get its an emotional time, but with respect, alot of people arent thinking rationally right now.

No Starmer hasn't gone full Brexit - we need to look a bit more soberly at things.

A thread.

2/

The anger at whether Labour votes for the deal is one of the biggest, dullest non-issues of the day.

Its Johnson's deal - as he insists on telling us at every moment.
The ERG back it.
Labour's vote makes no difference either way.
I'd prefer Abstain - but I dont really care.

3/

Agonising over this is pointless.
A case can be made for all 3 options.

But ultimately its Johnson deal, the Conservatives deal and Labour MPs voting for it won't change that.
Nobody is going to come back & say it was Labour that brought this deal in 2 years time.
Let it go.

4/

A few people have been upset by comments Starmer wont seek to radically change UKs relationship with EU.

2 days before a deal comes in is not the day to say you will radically change it.

So what is Starmer thinking?

Consider...not 2024 - but

5/

Its very easy for English people to forget that 2 crucial things coming in 2021 will combine to constrain any UK govt policy on EU - regardless of what Westminister thinks:

1. Scottish elections
2. Northern Irish Census
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Brexit Truth
Brexit Truth
@Big_Headers
A year ago we left the EU, but the real impact of leaving will only be felt from tomorrow.

1/13

Although the ‘deal’ includes tariff free access to the single market and customs union – it still destroys friction free access to the EU markets, which will destroy many UK businesses and cost many UK jobs.

2/13

It of course fails to address the UK’s services industry – which represents 80% of trade with the EU.

3/13

But there are also other factors – lorry drivers will need to be paid more to wait in queues. Or they won’t come.

4/13

So there will be supply failures for product from the EU – impacting everything from supermarket shelves to car and aerospace manufacturing industries.

5/13
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Paul
Paul
@PaulOnBooks
Good to hear that the ERG star chamber has approved the Brexit trade deal (or Deal--- as I think it should be called). It "preserves the UK's sovereignty as a matter of law" they say. I wonder what they'd have said if they'd actually read it.

Boris Johnson: "we have pressed ahead with this task, resisting all calls for delay, precisely because creating certainty about our future provides the best chance of beating Covid"

Eh?

I'm pretty sure Brexit preceded pandemic but there we are. I would advise, having read extracts from the speech Johnson is to deliver, that people put away sharp objects, bricks etc if they're going to watch the debate. And there is never an excuse for kicking the cat.

Starmer is now savaging (politely) the PM, pointing out lies and inconsistencies. Given he's already whipped Labour MPs to support the bill, I think he's wasting his breath - the result is already settled, the headlines already written.

I have to say that Johnson is performing well: a fake success allied to complete lack of scrutiny has empowered him. He's flinging lies like a monkey flings its own dung.
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Weapons Of Mass Deception \U0001f940
Weapons Of Mass Decept...
@iwaslabour
@cool_grandad @morty642 @vincent_rowlatt Thread

In 2017 the Blairites were working to lose the general election and in effect cause a Tory Landslide and Hard Brexit.

This demonstrates their priority was not stopping Brexit as they said it was in 2019.

They used Brexit to lose to remove

@morty642 @vincent_rowlatt 2/10
.

Here is Keir Starmer admitting in March 2018 that reversing the manifesto commitment to (soft) Brexit, would 'Break Apart' the Labour party.

.

6 Months later he did just

@morty642 @vincent_rowlatt 3/10

Sept

@morty642 @vincent_rowlatt "An anti-Brexit party would win 150 fewer seats than a Leave party at a general election" Professor Christopher Hanretty, Head of politics, University of London.
.

"Labour splits erupt as Keir Starmer defies Jeremy Corbyn to insist Brexit 'can be

@morty642 @vincent_rowlatt 5/10

96% of the seats (52 of 54) that we lost to the Tories in 2019 voted leave.
.
https://t.co/NQjeCvcOMV
.
https://t.co/osEZzreN8V
.
"Labour is the party of remain, says Keir Starmer" Aug 2019
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